Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has changed the lives of many people. Independent Russian journalists, political analysts, and business people who spoke out against the war have lost the opportunity to work in Russia. Waves of skilled migration have reached the United States. We spoke with Anzhelika Minaeva, Ph.D., a political journalist and expert on Russian politics, who recently took over Close People LLC, a company in Florida that brings together specialists on Russia, to discuss the situation in Russia and plans for the future.

• We hear a lot about Russians supporting the war in Ukraine. Is it? 

• A more accurate question would be, “Are Russians willing to endure the war?” Recent sociological surveys show that 64% of Russians support a new offensive by Russian forces in Ukraine. At the same time, 74% of respondents said that if Putin started peaceful negotiations, they would also support it. In other words, it doesn’t matter for most Russians. They need to know what they need to adapt to. That’s all. From the outside, it is complicated to understand how many Russians support the war because ultra-patriots can speak in the media today, while opponents cannot. Pacifists are being imprisoned in modern Russia. However, I would note that the longer the military conflict drags, the more war supporters appear in Russia. This is influenced by domestic Russian propaganda, European sanctions, discrimination against Russians based on their passports, and simply the feeling that people have no choice.

• How do you assess the damage caused to Russia by the Wagner Group uprising?

• The damage is colossal primarily because Prigozhin struck at the regime’s core from within it. The law enforcement agencies and the military are bewildered. The patriotic public is at a loss. Russians expected stability guarantees in exchange for the lost rights and freedoms, but it turns out that the political system is teetering on the brink of chaos. The political elites have shown their behavior in an emergency: Putin will fly away and disappear from the radar, the Defense Minister will hide, the oligarchs will also leave the country, and the security forces will remain inactive and wait for who will win to join the winning side.

 Why did you leave Russia and specifically to the United States?

• The Russian president publicly stated once that political science is not a science because it lacks its methodology. So in my country, my profession is practically canceled. The same applies to political journalism. The United States is a country of advanced science where we can all develop in our professions and contribute to those who genuinely need it.

• What does your company do?

• We analyze Russian public policy, political company management, and society. We are looking for opportunities to develop democracy in authoritarian regimes. Our team comprises specialists with a Ph.D. and many years of political experience. We produce analytical reports and provide data services on Russia’s political, social, and economic situation and the Russian-speaking part of the international community. We are researching the Russian-speaking segment of social networking. We want to assist the international community in studying Russian-speaking countries to find a way out of the crisis together. We are working to preserve the intellectual capital of Russian scholars and journalists, which will be valuable for the restoration of democratic institutions in Russia.

• You are a professional historian with a Ph.D. in Russian History. How would you assess what is happening in modern Russia from a historical retrospective?

• In the situation with the war in Ukraine, there are very close analogies in Russian history. Putin increasingly reminds me of the Russian Emperor Nicholas I, who initiated an unsuccessful Crimean War in 1853-1856. He was also blinded by his grandeur and believed that Russia should fight against external enemies surrounding it. He also underestimated the opponent, and military defeats revealed the weakness of the Russian army. The Autocrat himself did not live to see the end of the war. After his death, his inner circle moved with relief toward peaceful negotiations. Then reforms began in Russia to make up for the lagging Russian economy. Russia is now following the same path.

• What prospects do you see for Russia in the nearest future?

• The conversation about the future can only begin after the end of the war in Ukraine. Russia has already lost this war; further escalation will lead to even greater losses. The peace process will only start with the presence of interested mediators who will serve as guarantors of the absence of national humiliation for all participants in the negotiations. For now, I don’t see any such interested leaders or states.

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