For years, our community has been debating on the best way to solve the shidduch crisis. At the heart of the issue is the belief that because of massive population growth, boys getting married at an older age and girls getting married at a younger age is causing a massive disparity in the number of shidduchim available to girls, thus leading to the shidduch crisis.
But today, I saw some data dug up by an incredible Jewish reporter by the name of Shlomo Schorr, who is one of the best, if not the best, frum journalist on the scene today.
The data he unearthed really speaks for itself, but let’s go through it.
In a tweet, Shlomo noted that one figure that really stuck out to him is the ratio of boys being born to girls being born in Lakewood since 1990. His data shows that every single year since 1990 besides for two, there have been 125-200 more boys than girls being born to frum Jewish families in Lakewood.
Been taking a deep look at the birth rate in Lakewood over the past two decades and while there is a lot of data there, one figure that really stuck out was the ratio of boys-girls. Every year since 1990 besides for two, 125-200 more boys are being born than girls. pic.twitter.com/rjY6TdSJM0
— Shlomo Schorr (@OneJerseySchorr) November 29, 2021
He writes that he will “leave the shidduch crisis discussion to the experts, but the argument that older boys marrying younger girls is the biggest contributor to the crisis seems to [be] less significant with these numbers.” He adds that he’s aware that Lakewood doesn’t account for the entire Jewish community.
Now, he might not be a shidduch crisis expert, but I consider myself to be somewhat of an askan in this area. For years, I have been pushing for boys to get married at a younger age so as to alleviate this terrible burden that weighs on our bnos yisroel.
But I have to question my whole stance right now. Is it really true that there are so many more girls than boys on the shidduch scene? The numbers provided by Schorr would suggest that there is likely some other factor at play here.
Something doesn’t add up. And we need to get to the bottom of it.
Aharon P.
Lakewood, NJ
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40 Responses
MAKES NO SENCE!!!!!!!
dont believe a word hes saying.
Look, you could have an opinion, but dont make up studies!!!!
only where ppl do abortion to ‘choose’ their offspring does this happen,
otherwise it is scientifically impossible.
Unless, Lkwd ppl are like Shmuel, who knew how to make all his kids boys…..
Statistically speaking due to the shrinking Y chromosome there should be more girls born over time than boys. So this sounds backwards. In any event, if there are more boys, how is it that there are supposedly more girls who are single?
I believe that the added boys might not help much because firstly, more girls than boys stay frum. I think that holds true across most communities. In mine, it seems like every girl is a “gem” with amazing character and wants a learning boy. While I don’t know numbers, my eyes tell me there is a whole lot less boys who are in learning in actuality. My personal opinion is that boys are just more likely to go OTD than girls so we lose numbers there. As well, the autism epidemic hits mainly boys. At this point it’s perhaps one in 40 or thereabouts. That’s a whole lot of those boys out of the shidduch picture. So perhaps there really are less frum boys to girls
Of course the age gap is bogus. Anyone with a brain can see through it.
Seems like there is a more obvious problem. The boys are not entering the shidduch world prepared to have and support a family. They can only get married if the girls’ family agrees to support. Some girls will get by on looks and some on yicchus but for so many girls, they (and their parents) simply cannot afford to get married. Why don’t more people own rolls royces? For the same reason more girls arent getting married. Is it just a coincidence that the crisis arose as soon as “kollel for everyone” took hold in our community?
This information is unfortunately very deceiving.
Firstly, even if between 125-200 more boys are born each year, this might not be enough to make up for a 3 year gap between the age of boys & girls entering shidduchim.
But more importantly, this information is well known that worldwide, more boys are born than girls. The reason is that sadly, more boys are born with birth defects than girls, more boys engage in risky behaviors & pass away at a young age than girls thus more boys aren’t able to marry. So the world needs more boys born than girls just to keep the ratio of those who are marriageable at 50/50. In addition for our community, more boys go OTD than girls & won’t marry a frum girl. We know that by Chassidim, who marry at the same age, there is no crisis of unmarried girls at all, aderabah, they face a shortage of girls possibly because less chassidim go OTD. Chassidim also have much less choice in who to marry & much less time to be choosy so they get down to business quickly.
“Is it really true that there are so many more girls than boys…?”
We need to get the answer to that question.
Anecdotal evidence is useless. Since the vast majority or our boys and girls are at some point enrolled in frum schools it would be difficult but not impossible to follow them and find out.
I have seen well known shadchanim make statements that they should be aware are not true. I can’t imagine what agendas they might have or who is directing this “age gap” campaign.
There’s no question there are a lot of older single men and women in our communities. The first step we need to take is to determine what the problem is, then we can try to figure out what the source is and finally we can come up with solutions.
In the current system boys are generally 3 years older than the girls, Take any year and go three years ahead, and you will see that there are more girls than boys by having this three year gap. Thus by boys getting married one year earlier, although it will not be a total solution, it will make the situation much better.
“I consider myself to be somewhat of an askan in this area.” assuming u dont “asken” with a pen name. so … what your name, please?
The age gap is a huge factor in the shidduch crisis. Without going into its details (there are plenty of resources online that do), it is simply a mathematical fact that is irrefutable. You can’t argue with numbers.
Finding another potential factor ie a higher male to female birth ratio does not diminish the effects of the age gap factor.
First of all, yes. If older boys are marrying girls younger than themselves by 2-3 years, the numbers are still worrying. And in addition, more boys than girls go off the Derech (the argument being that “it’s easier to be a good girl than a good boy”). Perhaps this factor counteracts the higher birthrate for boys in this study. And of course, Lakewood is not the whole world – or even the whole Frum world.
While I am not in possession of any data on the subject, I find these discussions strange. Is there a shidduch crisis? I am not alone in wondering about that.
Creating statistics implies that there is some commonality, and that we can identify something as a group. We should then look for the identifying factors, and then to figure out the causal factors. Once we know thge causes, we can apply a remedy to the situation, and fix it – viola!
Look around. Take note of a few singles in your neighborhood or kehila. Now, examine to the best degree possible what factors might be relevant to that individual. I can think of a host of possibilities. Some have challenging family situations. Others have psychological issues. Others are wedded to their careers. Still others have lives that are fun and exciting enough that makes marriage less desirable. And the lists go on and on. Now repeat that for another individual. Any similarity? Probably not.
So I wonder whether these discussions and these blanket recommendations are worth the time invested in them.
Please stop telling me number don’t add up – Hashem also knows the math!
100 of those “125-200” are explained by the world-average 105:100 ratio of boys-to-girl births. 105 may be a little higher, so this is within the norm. If this is all to the article, the title should be “Jewish journalist confirms science”
another possible explanation is that some fathers follow an obscure Gemorah suggestion of how to have a baby boy.
another one, true in China but hopefully not in Lakewood, is that some parents select sex via artificial means or by eliminating undesired.
another – presumably there are more boy families than girl families in a yeshiva town, so if there is within-family correlation, it will show up.
finally – someone who has a girl has a higher chance to move out of yeshiva town, and someone with a baby boy – to move in. Maybe even before birth, planning for future education.
Your graph proves the AGT if you would only look at the actual numbers not 1 simple graph.
I dont think AGT is the only contributor but its a significant one and its something that we can fix.
The natural ratio of the sexes at birth is 105 boys for every 100 girls. However infant mortality is higher among boys than girls, so by the time an echelon gets to shiduchim there are about the same number of boys as girls. But with our high rate of population growth each echelon is bigger than the one before it, so when boys from an earlier echelon marry girls from a later one, there are more boys than girls.
Where is this data from? Hospital records?
isnt hashem doing everything ? so what is this argument about
I think a bigger problem than the “shidduch crisis” is the “gerusha crisis” people have to learn that marriage isn’t a disposable plate before they get married
Ummm…
Good morning, good sir.. This is a well known fact, that the male to female birthrate is 105:100. This birthrate ratio disparity is absolutely elementary. There wasn’t any major research in Lakewood necessary to figure this out. There are various scientific theories why this is true, but it does seem to be undeniably factual.
If boys and girls would get married at the same age, the wouldn’t be enough girls to go around. This is why the chassidim have a shidduch crisis for the boys. The girls are the same age or 6-12 months older, which is problematic from a demographical standpoint.
However, to offset this disparity, there is also an annual population growth. Current studies show this to be about 3.7% in our circles. This means that for every 100 23 year olds, there are about 108 21 year olds.
Being as there are about 5% more boys born than girls on an annual basis, the perfect age gap would be boys being 1.5 years older than the girls, on average. This would even out the numbers.
The same HKBH Who created these birthrates created a reality that girls become physically mature about a year younger than boys do, and created the halachic possibility for girls to get married before adulthood. This physical maturity age gap perfectly offsets the gender birth disparity.
Our problem is that the average age gap is more like 2.5 years, instead of 1.5 years. This means that there are 3.7% more girls than boys. (Girls clearly seem to be having more than a 3.7% more difficult time than boys, for reasons that seem to be beyond scope of this comment, and that seems to be politically incorrect to discuss.)
In Eretz Yisrael and Europe, boys seem to be 1.5 years older than their wives, on average. There is no shidduch crisis there.
By the chassidim, where girls are about 8 months older than their husbands, there would be 2.5% more boys than girls due to population growth. Combined with the 5% more boys than girls being born, there are 7.5% more boys than girls.
We shouldn’t point to the chassidim as an example of a good system in terms of optimal ages. From a mathematical perspective, their system is a calamity, 106% worse than ours. Anyone familiar with the chassidish shidduchim world and plight of boys there knows that it is horrific.
Aharon, you don’t know simple math
“Chassidim also have much less choice in who to marry & much less time to be choosy so they get down to business quickly”
By “much less choice”, I assume you mean there is a preference for young men and women to marry from within their respective chassidus. As to “much less time” and “getting down to business quickly”, that is the type of misguided language that creates a self-fulfilling “crisis” mentality. Fortunately, more are making the decision to marry when they feel ready and find their beschert. These types of time pressures simply create unwarranted stress that unnecessarily complicate lives and increase depression and other mental health problems.
Anyone that believes in the age-gap hoax is a kofer beikar. In other words, we have statistics so HKB”H is no longer in control. If we do x y & z, oh than HKB”H will be in control but if not, than even the Aibishter can’t help. The Aibishter is impotent R”L. Such kefira is astounding. The numbers don’t add up so it’s all doom & gloom. These “shidduch crisis experts” sit behind their computer and don’t believe in the Aibishter kee hu zeh kllal. A few years ago these age-gap hustlers were able to shake down Rechnitz for a few dollars to their “cause”. Reb Shlomo has since come to his senses and realized what a fraud these people are.
The reasonable among us have been sayng this for years.
For reasons not entirly clear to me*, denying THe “Age Gap” TM as THE casue of the shidduch crises has been met with anger and cries of heresy.
* (not entirly clear but I do have my suspicious, namel ythat a chnage to solve the “shidduch crises “would require a chnage (by defintion) pushing people to date younger is a small enough change that doesnt require overhauling the entire shidduch system , and if nothing happens it is easy to say “oh people havent been following)
How stupid can people be. If 23 year old boys are entering Shidduchim at the same time as the 19 year old girls. There is a four year Age-Gap. Now look at his graph. The boys born in 2007 are going to enter Shidduchim at the same time as the girls born 2011. Look at how much higher the chart of the 2011 girls are.
Kabail Es Ho`Emes.
21 year old boys and their parents must stop the man made tragedy of not listening to Shidduchim till age 23.
Dear Aharon P.,
This is old news. NASI is well aware of this data. For this very reason, they encourage boys starting at 21, not 19.
However, even their determination is questionable, as it seems that a one year gap is actually preferable, for the following reasons. In other words, girls should start at 18 and boys at 19.
It is true that in Lakewood, for the past thirteen years, 106 boys were born for every 100 girls. The question is are those six “extra” boys marriageable?
1) The OTD rate could be as high as 4%. However, for every OTD girl there are 3 OTD boys. This would mean that 6% of boys go OTD while only 2% of girls go OTD (give or take, these aren’t exact numbers). This would mean that 4 of the extra boys are no longer frum. So we are down to a gender ratio of 100 frum boys to 98 frum girls, right off the bat.
2) Boys lives are much more fragile. For this reason, despite the gender ratio at birth, every year the differential narrows. In Israel, for example, by the time they are in their mid-thirties girls start outnumbering boys.
3) Baby boys are much more likely to be born “severely disabled.” In Australia, for example, around 6% of baby boys are severely disabled, while only 3% of baby girls are severely disabled (despite the fact they abort whenever they suspect downs syndrome). So our original 106/100 ratio includes 3 extra boys that are “severely disabled.”
4) Baalei Teshuva and Geirim are much more likely to be women.
Putting all the numbers together, what is the best age gap? I honestly don’t know. Perhaps 2 year. Perhaps 1 year. Perhaps 0 years. What is for certain is that 3 or more years is killing a significant percentage of girls
To all the commenters here who are questioning the authenticity of the data presented, read through the data from Moshe Pogrow at the NASI project.
This data matches his. His argument is that since boys are marrying girls 4+ years their junior you wind up with a net lower amount of boys.
That being said, Reb Matisyohu Solomon once said that the “Shidduch crisis” is part of Galus and will not be solved by askanim. He did say that you must be Nosei Beol.
Dear Not Getting Involved,
Is the Rambam, who says that all issues of zivug are dependent on our bechira, a koifer? Is the Pele Yoetz, who said that failing to do “a lot” of hishtadlus can doom one’s shidduch, a koifer? Is Rav Elya Ber Wachtfogel a koifer?
Get off Yeshiva world for an hour, and go learn a modicum of hashkafa, and then start calling people koifrim.
This article is bad math. Take any year and the number of boys and match it up to the numbers of girls three years later (the age gap), and you will see that there are many more girls. We still have a huge problem.
For those who deny the age gap and consider it kefira please speak to Rav Elya Ber who said it is wrong to sit back and say Hashem will take care of things and we must do hishtadlus to narrow the age gap.
AAQ, your entire comment is silly and without basis, because you’re addressing a claim that NOBODY EVER MADE. NOBODY CLAIMED that there are 125-200 boys born for every 100 girls. The claim made here is that for the ENTIRE Lakewood community, 125-200 more boys are born than girls. Now if there are 2500 girls born, you would expect 2500*1.05 boys, which is… 2,625. Viola. Hey pesto. QED and PDQ. Vedal.
Even though there are more boys out there, a Jewish man could have multiple wifes. so that leaves less men for girls.
You may find Rav Chaim Kanievsky shlita’s answer interesting as to the question I recently asked regarding why both girls and boys were single for extended periods of time:
הרב ענה תשובה אחת לשתי השאלות:
בוודאי שזה לא אשמתם, הקב”ה רוצה שיתפללו ולכן לפעמים השידוך מתעכב, ולכן הדבר היחיד שצריך לעשות הוא להתפלל שוב ושוב!
No mention of age gap crisis.
On a “derech hateva” level: Speaking from a lot of extended experience. I never didn’t have boys to date, the problem was having appropriate boys to date. Plenty of single boys too, of all ages. A lot of boys don’t fit the mold that Bais Yaakov girls are trained to admire and respect.
There are plenty obvious discrepancies in the “system”. Everyone can list some. It definitely will provide for more meetings if single people broaden their playing fields. It will definitely get you more dates. More dates don’t always = a Shidduch. However, isn’t it H’ who makes shidduchim?
״מה׳ אישה לאיש״
Though this shouldn’t stop one from trying to help others. It is a big מצוה to try to help others get married. So if this age gap theory is a השתדלות to help, without another agenda, then it’s a nice gesture. I just wonder if a shidduch comes בעתו ובזמנו then will it help to start dating earlier? Maybe to give more girls more dates? I don’t know…
The crisis is caused by a very simple factor. Nothing to do with stats or numbers. The crisis comes about because the vast majority of frum girls stick together and stay put close to home and are ready to get married all at the same time. But frum boys are dispersed all around the globe and are literally all over the place and not close to home and don’t all get married at the same time and go on many different tracks and paths and many disappear in society and are totally on to a diff setting that they were at 18. So to put this in perspective. You have a 12th grade class of 24 Girls. 14 are ready to date now and the other 10 will be ready in exactly 12 months after a year in seminary. So this class of 24 are all looking to get married in 2 shifts. Now take a class of 24 12th grade boys. 5 went to work. 5 went to college. 5 went to Israel. 5 went to other American yeshivas. 5 are roaming not sure what they doing with there life. A year later 3 moved out of state. 2 made aliya. 2 years later some are ready to date some still going to Mir or Brisk. 2 years later the working guys opened his own business. Basically they all on thier own program and they trickle in to the shiduchim market drop by drop as they already a few years on the journey of life each in thier own way and everyone will be ready on thier own pace. Unlike the girls that are all ready in bulk at the same time in the same zip code as explained above. In a nut shell the boys get very wide spread and in thier own program. The girls are very narrow spread kept close to home and are all in the same program together. The proof to this is that the shidduch crises is a frum issue. And if it was a numbers issue then it should apply all over as well. But it’s not like that. The not religious don’t have this issue and the goyim totally don’t have this issue. Reason being that the girls are wide spread and all over some in college some nurses. Some working. Some teaching. Some real estate. Some designing.
Etc… but not kept all together in bulk in the same exact setting all ready to get married the same day. So therefore they spread out and on thier own journey. Now I’m not saying in anyway that frum girls need to change and be out there C”V. But if you trying to come up with a kosher way to fix the crisis what I explained is the cause. And its simple as day. I’m in this field for over 10 years. Call a shadchan looking for a girl. They will have notebooks with names to give you in batches. Call a shadchan for a boy and they have no list. They will have 3 names total in thier mind. Think what I explained the girls are ready all together in bulk. The boys are ready each one in his own way at his own pace on his own way.
Think about this. Apply it to those around you and you will see this clearly. Ask your wife how many of her personal friends or classmates were in shiduchim when she was. Her answer will be like 16. Ask yourself how many friends or classmates were dating while you were. Answer is like 2. Maybe 3.
Hashem should help us.
1. There’s absolutely no reason to incorrectly claim that there are materially more OTD boys than OTD girls. This is voodoo statistics made up to find an explanation when other theories were already invalidated.
2. There is no statistics demonstrating that the male mortality rate is higher than the female mortality rate for people under age 30. There is very good reason to not assume the gentile/secular male mortality rate is immaterial to the Jewish community. The secular rate includes drug overdoses, death from violence, death from STD and deaths from many factors that clearly the Jewish world is far far less afflicted with. The secular rate is artificially high, as well, due to the inclusion of minority communities that have an especially high violence and drug death rate.
3. While it is accurate that the Chasidim have a somewhat inverse issue of too many boys and too few girls, they extent and degree they suffer from this issue is much much less than the Yeshiva/Litvish world’s issue of too many girls and too few boys.
One solution that you hear little discussed, yet deserves to be much more discussed and indeed potentially implemented, is to (Gasp!) marry Chasidish boys to Litvish girls. (Take a deep breath; things will turn out fine.)
4. The age gap problem is NOT unique to Jews (or the frum). It is well known and documented (do your research) that various other nationalities and secular communities widely suffer from this same age gap issue causing a discrepancy in the sufficient availability between pairing males and females.
5. There are very good halachic and hashkafic reasons to strongly encourage unmarried people to marry young and younger. Even without considering any of the above issues or points.
There is no shidduch crisis. Hashem already sets up every person with their zivvug/shidduch wife to be 40 days before they are even born. Forget about the fact that now were talking they are already approximately 20 years later since born and setup. The question YOU need to ask yourself is if your doing your RUCHNIUS hishtadlus of tefilla and bitachon and Emunah (faith and trust) in Hashem? And not just your gashmius hishtadlus of dating and speaking to shadchanim etc….
Daven directly to Hashem to send you or your child their Shidduch ASAP. Hashem already has them setup for many years since before birth and is just waiting for your call for help and for the right time
The same G-d who split the sea knows about the non existent “age gap” the problem isnt age, the problem is everyone wants to marry the next Gadol Hador and that next Gadol Hador’s parents only want him to marry a real estate or nursing home barons daughter.
Sam Klein that’s only zivug rishon which is extremely rare. The gemara you are quoting literally says the opposite למסקנא. I’m glad you’re not an expert on shidduchim
There are way less families able to support a young couple in kollel then there are young men and women who wish to start out married life in kollel. Therefore, there is the unfortunate “natural selection” that weeds out those girls unlucky enough to come from a family unable to support (or unwilling to go into debt) a young kollel couple from the shidduch pool. Its a harsh, sad reality that noone wants to acknowledge publicly.
This article is not so clear about the statistics. To be clear, the number of white non-Hispanic females born in Lakewood in the last 20 years was was 30,295 while the number of males was 32,408. That’s about 107 males to 100 females. According to the AviChai Foundation the growth rate of the Yeshivishe community is less than 3.5% yearly. Therefore, the ideal age gap is about 2 years. What is the actual age gap currently? It’s very hard to determine. While girls end seminary 4 years before boys enter BMG the actual age gap is obviously well under 4 years as anyone can determine from their own friends and family. In fact, it is quite possible that it is already under 2 years.
Moshcohen:
You point, that there is perhaps only roughly a two-year age gap, I believe is correct. Nevertheless, I believe that there is a still shidduch imbalance, due to the larger percentage of boys who are a) go OTD, b) are severely disabled or c) are severely disabled (discussed this issue in an earlier comment). I have statistics that back up all of these assertions. In short, the age gap alone would be fine, if not for these additional factors.
However, there is a second shidduch crisis, which is also very serious, and it hinges on your point. When you start with a four-year age gap and you end with a two-year age gap, it means that girls are, on average forced to wait an addition two years (over and above the “regular” waiting time). Obviously, this is only an average. Some girls wait four “additional” years, others wait zero years (i.e., the 19 year old who marries the 23 year old). These two years of additional waiting are devastating, because during those two “additional” years, girls have no idea whether they will ever get married. Sometimes their younger sister ends up getting married before them. It is an absolute destruction. Every single girl, on average, is in a sense an Agunah: she is delayed from getting married for two years against her will (the Sdei Chemed writes that forcing a woman to wait more than a few months puts her in the “Agunah” status, allowing Poskim to use various kulos).
In fact, the famous Chazal about Nadav and Avihu states that Nadav and Avihu’s delay made girls wait for them and they were killed because of them. Apparently, even delaying a girl from getting married is also considered an Agunah.