Here we go again. It’s that time of the year – Election Day. Every year, Yeshiva World News receives emails from Frum Jewish candidates who have little chance of winning but ask for coverage by YWN. This year, because I have reluctantly accepted the role of YWN’s senior political commentator, I have agreed to not only write a re-cap of who is Frum and running for office in New York City, but also of their odds of success.
Candidate: Yosef Hayon
Running against: Assemblyman Steve Cymbrowitz
Odds of winning: 1 in 10.
Mr. Hayon is a young conservative republican who is married with children and wrote YWN to correct a story that described him as being active in politics his whole life insisting instead that he is a newbie. That is exactly why he is not likely to win today. The best thing that Hayon has going for him is that he is running against a candidate that is out of touch with the community. However, Hayon has raised little money, has very little name recognition and hasn’t even basic experience like serving on a community board. What’s more, there is no evidence that Hayon has any get out the vote operation today.
Bottom line: Nice guy. But nice guys finish last.
Success for candidate: Hayon Breaking 40%. If he does that, he’ll have two
years to raise money and run a real campaign against Cymbrowitz in 2012.
Candidate: Menachem Raitport
Running Against: Assemblyman Karim Camara
Odds of winning: 1 in 100
Mr. Raitport is a well-known local butcher who is a stalwart of his crown heights community and is running against an Assemblyman who is even popular in the Lubavitch community that Raitport is from. The problem: his Tea Party brand of politics simply hasn’t caught on in the district that he seeks to represent.
Bottom line: Raitport should plan on opening his store, Crown Kosher, on Wednesday.
Success for Candidate: Getting most Lubavitchers to vote for him. That would undermine the power of the Crown Heights PAC and make Raitport a player in his own right.
Candidate: Avraham Rosenberg
Running Against: Senator Carl Kruger
Odds of winning: 1 in 100,000
Mr. Rosenberg is a 19 year old Touro College student who is a Republican but is running on the Conservative party line. Why isn’t he running on the Republican line? Because apparently he couldn’t figure out how to get on the line and the Republicans refused to give it to him. Oh, did I mention that as of ten days ago (the most important final stretch in any election) Senator Calr Kruger had $2,075,512.80 in his campaign coffers and Mr. Rosenberg had $0?
Bottom line: Rosenberg is running this campaign as a class project. Final Grade: “F.”
Success for Candidate: Graduating College.
Finally, there are three other Frum candidates on the ballot who will actually win. The first is Assemblyman Dov Hikind. Despite some discontent with the Assemblyman, no legitimate candidate has challenged him. However, after several of high-profile candidates that he has endorsed recently have lost, Hikind must win at least 80% of the vote in order to prove that he still has a respectable following in his district.
The second Frum candidate is Assemblyman David Weprin. His real race was in the Democratic primary against perennial candidate Bob Friedrich where Weprin won a decisive victory. He faces only token opposition tomorrow from a no-name Republican and will win big today.
The final Frum candidate on the ballot is Councilman David Greenfield. Greenfield, who won a landslide victory just eight months ago in a special election, must run again today because of an oddity in the City’s election law. In a sign of just how popular Mr. Greenfield is, no one even tried running against him.
Jewish Politics is a new opinion column by veteran political strategist Daniel Miller. The views and opinions reflected herein are solely of Mr. Miller and are not necessarily those of Yeshiva World News.
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12 Responses
What about Asher Taub. Although still a distant shot, he has a better chance then all of the above mentioned.
Nothing like a little ridicule for the frum canditates to discourage future attempts. I’m sure Mr. Rosenberg will enjoy reading Yeshiva World’s assessment of his efforts.
LBK
Sometimes people need a reality check.
Hatzlocha to R Dov.
Sheldon Silver is also frum and he will be re-elected to his Manhattan seat in the State Assembly.
FRUM PEOPLE………………….VOTE REPUBLICAN!
This is what passes for “political analysis?” It is one of the most empty, vapid opinion pieces I have read this season.
A true analysis is so simple, so obvious, that it barely merits mention. Note that all the candidates he predicts will lose are conservatives/Republicans while those he predicts will win are liberals/Democrats. Gee, who’d of thunk it: in a state and, in particular, a city where Dem voters outnumber Rep voters by 2 to 1 (versus 34% to 33.8% nationwide — not to mention that Jews vote Dem 75-85%) that liberals/Democrats are the likely winners and conservate/Republicans are the likely losers.
I am awe struck by the brilliance of such political wisdom… NOT
Chicago has Joel Pollack, a “Yireah Shomoyim” running against the vehemently anti-Israel Jan Schakowsky for a key US Congressional seat. She embraces J-Street et al.
I am still shocked how biased ywn is regarding D. Greenfeld and D. Hikind. While I have great respect for both of them D. Greenfeld is gven credit for everything good that has happened in this century. D. Hikind is looked at like gum stuck on the bottom of his shoe. We have received Hikind’s opponent’s web description of who he is and what he wants. We never saw Dov’s website. Is ywn a news site or a biased political machine. Hatzlocha to Dov and David, Keep up the great work.
LBk Mr. Rosenberg got 28% of the vote That is great for such a Candidate. MR. Rosenberg Does not get knocked down so easily. He had the guts to go against Carl Kruger which 19 year old who do you know that does that, or would do that.
Kudos to a kid who can earn 27% of the vote without spending a dime. That sends a powerful message. Also, Brian Doherty won a good 38% of the vote, despite his lack of funds. That is also pretty impressive. Doherty had some Jewish support, but mostly from Flatbush. Dov needs to be given the boot- his Tzioni politics seem to have little to do with the Chassidishe taam of Boro Park. A good Republican Chosid needs to challenge him.
Joel Pollak from Chicago is also a rising star in the Conservative movement, and I think that Moderate Republican David Brumberg also has a chance at becoming a leader in the Manhattan GOP- he is fiscally responsible, but also pro-choice and pro-gay marriage. We need people like him and California candidate John Dennis from San Francisco to run in liberal districts and to build up the GOP in liberal enclaves. We learned last night that the GOP needs to be a big tent party, one that runs candidates suitable for the constituencies they seek to represent.
We need Mike Castle to make a Senate run in DE in 2012, Giuliani to make a run for Gilibrand’s seat in 2012, and we need to get Scott Brown reelected, as well. We must also try to get a strong candidate in PA who can stand up to Bob Casey, and capitalize on the anti-Democrat sentiment in Wisconsin and get Herb Kohl out.
LBK & WellInformedYid – Mr Rosenberg got a large enough percentage of the vote be considered a threat as he grows older and becomes experienced. If $0 can get 30% of the vote, what does a hundred bucks get? How about a thousand?
Mr Rosenberg got just over EIGHT THOUSAND votes. How many did you get, three?