Bill de Blasio’s surge is real. If Democratic primary voters would have to choose today a candidate for mayor, Christine Quinn and Bill de Blasio would come out at the top contenders for a special runoff primary – with 24% of support respectfully, according to a new Marist/NBC4/WSJ poll of likely Democratic primary voters.

Bill Thompson is a close third with 18% of support. Anthony Weiner, the once upon a time Frontrunner, drew support from 11%, and John Liu fell to 5%. 12% remain undecided.

Among registered Democratic voters, the poll found Ms. Quinn’s support at 24 percent and Mr. de Blasio at 21 percent, up 7 points from 14 percent in July. Thompson is at 16 percent and Weiner dropped to 12 percent from 16 percent in July.

“Weiner has faded, and Quinn and de Blasio are running dead even, with Thompson in striking distance,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “The big change in the numbers has been a gain in de Blasio’s standing from the previous poll to make this a very tight contest.”

The poll also asked voters to pick who they’d vote for in various runoff scenarios. In a race between de Blasio and Quinn, the two candidates came out in a statistical tie, 44 percent to 42 percent. The same outcome would be in a hypothetical matchup between Thompson and Quinn: 44 percent to 43 percent. Asked to choose between de Blasio and Thompson, respondents picked de Blasio, 44 percent to 36 percent.

But with three weeks to go, the race seems to be as wide open as it was weeks ago. Only 43 percent of respondents said they were firmly committed to their choice of candidates.

Among registered Democrats with a candidate preference, 43% said they strongly support their choice, while 37% said they were somewhat committed and 17% said they might vote differently. Mr. de Blasio’s supporters appear to be the most committed, with 48% saying they won’t waiver, compared with 41% for Mr. Thompson and 35% for Ms. Quinn.

“There is still a large group of persuadable voters,” said Lee Miringoff. “Voters are still having a difficult time sorting this all out.”

(Jacob Kornbluh – YWN)