ubiquitin

NC

“You’re simply wrong. Everybody knows that Litvishers marry at an age gap ”

Im not interested in what “everybody knows” Im interested in facts.
I fully get that this doesnt interest you. Beseder. I am NOT trying to convince you. I dont find arguments over belief prodcutive. This is your belief you will not change your mind. Ok

“Huh? This has nothing to do with anything. Nobody cares about whether or not people can go on dates”

This is demonstrably false. I see you havent been following the discussion over years. this is ALWAYS the complaint . It was mentioned in this thread as i posted a verbatim quote . So again while YOUd odnt care this it undermines your beleief system, others do .

” If there is a surplus of let’s say 5 thousand women this past year, then it’s perfectly possible that every women gets to date, ”
Yes! Exactly! , yet that isnt what is happening . this CANNOT be explaiend by the age gap (as you all but acknowlegde) – though again Ive had thsi discussion years ago ok dates dont matter marriage does I get it

“Your “data” (if it actually exists) ”
It exists source provided above , data by Yosef Sokol (was YWN article on it trying to debunk it by R Yair Hoffman)
I know I know the data is no good. spare me
I dont think it will convinve you I really get it

“I’m not sure what I can say to convince you of the easily observable minhag. ”
Probably nothing
You cna provide data., thats all.

But again. I dont need to be convinved Ive heard it all this is not a new topic its ben discussed again and again (though Im a little surprised yu never heard of the complaitn that girls arent gettign dates)
The tumult is now over 10 years old

IT is fair to ask if there are any updates. has the age gap narroewed ? are there less singles? is the problem better ? worse ? same ? etc etc
IF you dont have any ok say no updates we need to keep working at narrowing the gap .Forever nothing else to do. Ok that is your response I haear it loud and clear
IF someone else has updates let them provide them

” If you think there is, then you don’t understand the problem.”

So never?

We dont have to rehash the tired old stuff IVe heard it all .

“If I had a room of 10 men and 15 women and had to match them up for marriage with no polygamy, you accept that there would be 5 women leftover, right?”

Yes.

“If a population is growing exponentially, you accept that the population born 5 years later at any given time will exceed that born 5 years earlier, right?”
Yes

“Do you accept that the frum population is growing exponentially?”

Yes

“If you answered yes to all of these, then mazel tov you believe in the shidduch crisis whether you admit it or not. If you answered no to any of these, then you are objectively wrong.”

No. there are other missing pieces . how many of the men are exiting for other reasons (eg off the derech)
Is the age gap really that wide? (real data says no)
Shiduchim arent “closed rooms” more people are always entering some women marry men older than them. Your analogy is cute and simple but not reflective of reality

and not to mention the most obvious as another poster pointed out “a normal girl from a typical family can go six months without dating a boy thats even close” this is not due to the Age gap for the simple reason that people date more than one person.

so in your of room of 10 men and 15 women. If each man sat with say 5 women before choosing one. IT would be very odd if after the dust settles and the 10 men went on their 50 dates 5 women never got dates. This cannot be explained by the age gap..

Again I get that you dont find this convincing and are married to the simple Age gap . fine I am not trying to convince you

You believe there is no other option. Ok

anyone else ?

I too am interested in response to UJM’s OP

NC

“Closing the gap would help. It’s not something that needs to be tested. ”
while it might help
I dont think that is the main part of the problem I also dont think there s a way to actually close it.
That said I understand their is a dogma associated with this and questioning it and asking for real data, not to mention provinding data that undermines it is met with fierce opposition.

My question is at what point do we say ok, it isnt clossable, lets look for another solution. 10 years ? 20 years ? 30 ?

AAQ

FWIW R’ Moshe explicitly rejects this argument. in the Teshuva referenced above

NC

“This is a bad argument,”

I guess thats where we disagree. The Agudau (hopefully) responds to its constituents . If tEarly Fridays was a big problem they would know Rabbanoim would know and deal with it. You are suggesting we allow a definite problem to avoid an issue tha t you “are sure there are cases of…” and a few anecdotal well known stories. I dont find that persuasive.

I agree though that it isnt the biggest deal and we’ll adjust ok so daven beyichidus at work put on tefilin at a bedieved time for a few months (anyway we rely on that if theres shaas hadechak etc) it isnt the biggest deal.

I was surprised to see the Teshuva from R” Moshe encouraging they fight it vigourously.

My bigger concern is that it was tried before (year round DST) and it became very unpopular in a few months with congess quickly swithing back.

Happy New year
putting aside the inaccuracies in your post regarding Shkiya
You say “And most frum people live in places when sundown is at 430 nowadays. This is a BIG problem.”

Can you eloborate ? while certainly challenging, in what way is it a big problem?

“It is not. You are free to run your own business at any time you want”

This is silly
1) many people aren’t in charge of their own hours
2) even those that are are at the whims of the public

“With all due respect, I’d give more weigh…”
Thats fair, thats why I introduced that point with “FWIW…” (for what its worth)

“What argument? That Shabbos matters more than zman hatefilla? Zero chance.”

Yes. read the teshuva (though he wasn’t talking about your exact concern, which seems like less of a concern than his)

Is that a real issue though among people you know ? they are mechalel shabbos Fridays in the winter? (not is it hard, have they come close etc)

“Why? The Sun will still rise and set as it does. We will just refer to it by a different number on a clock. Nothing is changing astronomically; it’s purely mental as he said.”

Because the “number on the clock” matters more than the Astronomical time
Meaning yes If all of society changed their practice and woke up at 7 instead of 6, “9-5 workday” became 10-6 schools started at 9 instead of 8 ended at 5 instead of 4 etc etc then he’d be right

but that isnt what will happen (obviously) We (society) will keep waking up at 6 with work day being 9-5 etc etc but with difficulties with zemanim

Will we adjust? for sure It isnt the biggest deal but society is largely driven by the clock not the sun. It is bizzare to suggest otherwise
what you say “We will just refer to it by a different number on a clock. ” is what drives society while yes nothing changes astronomically (obviously) we dont fucntion astronomically

And memah nafshach, if the clock doesn’t matter. S owho cares if the clock changes teice a year. Ignore it! after all “Nothing is changing astronomically” You can do it today chaneg your wtch back to DST 2 PM becomes 1 PM go to sleep. go to work tomorrow at 10 AM EST ie 9 on your clock . Tell your bos like AAQ that your coming in hour late tomoorw (he said early but presumably he menat late) problem solved.
sure it will be confusing if others refer to your 9 as 8, but it shouldn’t be confusing nothing is changing astronomically its all purely mental

(dont get caught up on these exact times probably arent any real 9-5 jobs left, and I dont know what time you get up just using 6 as example)

Thanks for briniging it up
it HAS been a while

years ago I pointed out some flaws in the idea behind the Age gap TM theory.
I predicted that therefore efforts to close the “age gap” would not help .
for reasons not entirely clear to me this really upset people at the time, and they refused to entertain other solutions that might help (that may be why they were so upset)

Since then Yosef sokol has released data essentially debunking the premise

At the time I said lets revisit this in 10 years (sadly knowing that were just kicking the can down the road)

has it been that long already ?

would love to hear an update from NAsi or @Az and its other ardent defenders

“The reason we sit low is because it is a sign of availus and has nothing to do with comfort.”

This is absolutely incorrect

See Yoreh Deah hilchos aveilus

“Ubi, President needs to lead, especially in international crises. See the discussion between Yidden and Shmuel regarding the King.”

I disagree (and the yidden were criticized) but I hear the perceived advantage of a strong executive unencumbered (Ok less encumbered) by laws.

What I dont understand is how this helps commies. Are you saying it helps foregign commies like china? Because that isnt what BY1212 said. s/he said

CA
Happy to help

“Why would anyone go to the zoo this chol hamoed?”
some people like zoos, many children do and even adults.

” The only day that it’s not an erev something is Thursday”
There is no issur to go to a zoo on Erev shabbos or yom tov

” and why waste it going to the zoo ”
Again, some people like the zoo

“(especially since the Bronx zoo is only free on Wednesday)”
Wednesday is yom Tov, Orthodox Jews dont generally travel on yom tov, so the free zoo on Wednesday doesn’t help us. Plus many live far away from teh Bronx zoo, so much so that it may be cheaper than paying for their local zoo than to travel to the free Bronx zoo

“This might be a fine point, the kind that you’d dismiss if you see it from a stranger but would give more thought of it came from someone you admire in some way. Therefore, I cannot help this last problem.”

This is the point we disagree. Your point is contrived. (iv’e heard it from others)
Why does an earthquake/comet/Thunder/lightning get a bercaha but eclipse doesnt?

My answer: “I dont know why chazal didnt establish one” maybe its a siman ra? (rainbow is different the text of the veracha isnt on the rainbow per se rather on Hashem keeping His promise kivayachol) But I dont find this convincing, in short I dont know why.

your answer is because it isnt actively coming across Hashem’s creation and it doesnt explain display of His Power and Rule.
why not? kacha

Halevai

“But a phenomenon which is not a mark of creation, nor a consumption of Hashem’s world, but an effect, doesn’t elicit a Bracha. In what way did you encounter Hashem’s hand now more than before? In fact, there are many enjoyments that we don’t bless Hashem upon enjoying them.”

Your explanation is a bit arbitrary, and seems forced to fit the conclusion.

Why isnt an eclipse part of creation? Who then set the sun and moon in motion?
Why is The blotting out of the sun midday less impressive than an earthquake?
which category does earthquake fall into is it a mark of creation or a consumption of Hashem’s world? It doesnt seem to fit your narrow criteria
ditto for a shooting star/comet ?

Chazal said those get berachos and eclipse doesnt, so be it, but your categories seem a bit forced

Avira

you do not dissapoint
You are now postign comments that you must know not to be true

“Ubiq, do you think the chachamim would have fought the romans when they went to meet them? ”

Yes of coruse, you must have heard of Rabi akiva and Bar Kochaba

“Milchama was a strategy when feasible.”
Yes exactly, as I said

“But did the zionists do the first two options? No – they were like the foolish baryonim who went straight to fighting.”
Again, you cant possibly know so little about Israel history, Balfour declaration was obtained without fighting, There was plenty of Zionist diplomacy

“And during the Holocaust, fighting would have only ensured that no one survived r”l… Look at what happened in Warsaw.”
There were survivors from Warsaw ghetto uprising. there were (almost?) none from Treblinka
You cant possibly not know this but your wrong ideology forces you to cherry pick and even fabricate points

I find it fascinating

Note at no point did I say fighting was ALWAYS the correct approach

“It’s more than a bad idea, it’s an abrogation of the ratzon Hashem”

could be, but unlike a clear/cut and dry halcha, “ratzon Hashem” is harder to ascertain. That same gemara says all who live in chutz Laa’aretz is as they do Avoda zara, Zionists focus on thsi gemra and come up with tirutzim why the other isnt really Avodas Hashem you do the reverse. Im sure you have very creative tirutzim (probably better than the ones youve shared so far, – note I’m not asking you to share them Ive heard them before I rely on them, I dont live in EY)

AAQ

“With all talking past each other, there are some statements here that look like real debate!”

First half is correct
Second is not.
There is no real debate. There has been no new information uncovered. ALL the se arguments have been made over and over for over 70 years.
Nobody is changing minds.

I do find it amusing though when in an effort to defend an untenable position all sorts of strange arguments get mad.

you do highlight a great one, that I pointed out earlier
You point # 3 though is only partially correct, the UN voted to create a State, the possessors who conquered Eretz Yisrael (the British) had tunred over the issue to the UN.
For reasons yet to be explained, although normally Kivush of land is a kinyan, this is an exception

Avira

Your moving the goal posts

Lets back up

Square said “The Three Oaths are Agadic Midrash, and therefore they are
NOT Halachically obligatory [they are not legally binding].”

UJM replied “he Oaths are quoted L’Halachah in numerous sources, including but not limited to: Piskei Riaz”

I commented how unusual this topic is, as I cant think of any other halachic discussion where a Piskei Riaz was te first mareh makom

You replied “is that they aren’t dinim, but they are realities that chazal warn us about.”

To which I replied “So Its just a bad idea, not assur.”

so we agree! . The shalosh shavuos are not a halchick issur in the classical sense, just like Square pointed out.

. Much like there is no halacha obligating one to engage in Tefila*/doron/milchama when in galus and dealing with goyim (your example, though one I was surprised to see you mention) , it is good advice, in fact the best advice, who else to get advice from, if our mesora. Same is true here,

As an aside the whole Ben Hecht thing is odd. Ben Hecht was an ardent Zionist. He was opposed to Labor Zionism, using his book as an anti-zionist argument is nonsensical

(* tefila of course is an obligaiton bshas tzara, but not because of Yaakov)

BTW This works in both directions

The Satmar Rebbe had his shita, but R’ Aryeh Kaplan disagreed and he must be right because he “was a GENIUS, and his words should be listened to.”

ujm
“Why would you say it doesn’t hold water?”

for several reasons here a re a few:

1) I dont understand the connection to kibud av, because she is patur in kibud av she should forgo the oppurtunity to be mevatel potentially 70 year bad gzar din? Again. I’m not saying she is chayav to go. But if she isnt doing anything why doesnt she go? I dont get the kibud av connection
2) Even if patur generally women I know do mitzvos they are patur from sukkah, Lulav shofar . (With a beracha). So ok they are “patur” from saying amen yehi shemie rabba becasue of some hekish? gezeira shava? Mah matzinu? to kibud av, why not do it anyway
3) If her husband isnt makpid she is chayav in kibud av
4) It doesnt answer why single/divorced women dont generally go

Its a good question

Although clearly not a chiyuv. what a zechus, Amen Yehey shemie rabba can destroy a bad gzar din, oopurtunity to say kedusha even a “simple” amen.

I understand when there are children at home, that is her primary tafkid but for the majority of her life often there is a shul close by instead of sitting around at home why not get extra easy zechusim.

It is very puzzling

Strangest of all, is when they are there. At a chausna or simcha there is often a minyan formed the women are there they can join answer amen etc , instead they hang around and shmooz yet it isnt even on the radar. I find this very strange

Fun game!!

“If you were a non-Jew, would you want your town or city,
where you have lived your entire life, to become like Boro Park?”

– I would want a country where people are free to live where they want

“Would you want all the stores to be closed on Saturdays and Jewish Holidays?”

– I would want people to be free to open and close their stores whenever they want

“Would you want kosher food stores,
where the prices are higher than for non-kosher foods?”

– I would want store owners to proice thier foods as they please

” Would you want public signs in a language that you do not understand?”
All Public municipal signs should be in english plus whatever language there is a need/demand for

“Would you want all your neighbors to speak Yiddish or Hebrew?
And even when they speak English,
they use many words that you do not understand?”

I would want them to speak whatever they want

“Would you want all your neighbors to be people who
are not interested in forming meaningful friendships
with non-Jews, or even talking to non-Jews?”

I would want to be friendly with them

“Would you want to live in a place where most
celebrations and events are for Jews-ONLY?”
Private events can be for whoever is invited

“Would you want to become a minority in
the place where you lived your entire life?”

– I wouldn’t want other groups baned or restricted

Just becasue you are biggoted doesnt mean all goyim are, or more importantly that they should be.
Let me know if you have any other questions

“If you were a non-married non-Jew,
would you want all your neighbors to be people
who you could never marry or even date?”

– I wouldn’t want there to be some restriction that my neighbors can only be people I’d date, that sounds creepy to even suggest

Would you want to be used as a “Shabbos Goy”?”
sure

Funnybone

1. Why isn’t it a psik reisha dnicha lei?

– OF course its nicha lei, You want the compressor to turn on when the fridge gets warm, thats how fridges work. If it doesnt do that you need a new fridge.

2. If it’s lo niche lei, can you rely on it or only Al yidei akum?
– No psik reisha delo nicha lei is not automatically mutar

Meno is right on older fridges where it takes some time for compressor to go on, so not neccerarliy if you open fridge for short while would it trigger the compressor thus it wasnt a psik reisha.

Today though apparently there are all sort of monitor and sensors that are triggered ever tiem door opens, it isnt just the light/compressor.

As for keeping it in Shabbos mode all the time, the manuals all say that ruins the fridge which makes sense, these functions are there for a reason

RE

“We add 14 from 2100”

Yes my #5 is wrong I tried to repost without it but both went up

“So let’s use the rule that it is Dec 4th. except before a leap year when it is Dec 5th.”

Yep that is the rule.

AaQ I don’t understand .
The calculation doesn’t work because it isn’t the way to calculate.
It’s 60 days from tekufas Tishrei using Tekufas Shmuel. Not 61 days from the autumnal equinox. Yes they often overlap but shpukdnt expect them to be the same .
Tekufas Shmuel is known to be flawed There is a more accurate tekufa of Rav Ada, bit we font use it for this because too complicated (Chazon Ish says this)

I just realized a mistake “I made
I got the dates from “timeanddate . com”

The times given are Coordinated universal time which is 5 hours ahead of New York time.
Thus for New york the above dates are not accurate
Some chnage to become correct for you

for example last year 2022, equinox was Sep 23 01:03 UTC (which results in incorrect Dec 5th) but in NY this was Sep 22 9:03 PM (which results in correct Dec 4th)

Nonethless my point still stands:

1) Your rule is limited to certian time zones, making it not such a good rule, in London my list above with the 14% error rate is correct.

2) Correcting for time difference makes some of your years more correct (eg 2022 becomes right)
Others become wrong, for example 2039 in London your system works : Equinox will be Sep 23 03:49 UTC which results in Dec 5th according to both your system and the halachic one. but in NY the Equinox will be few hours earlier (local time) Sep 22 11:48 PM which would lead to Dec 4 start date using your system while Dec 5th using the halachic system (though to be fair it is more accurate in NY than in London )

3) If you use it as a cute trick that usually works fine. But this is a-halachic in Halacha when counting days we always (almost?) count the first day as day 1. If you say ignore that and just add 60 it works fine. but to make it sound like this is how the cheshbon works when it is not true makes me squeamish.

4) You say “I am trying to find an easy way of calculating.”
This is the part I really don’t get, it is much easier to check your siddur and see “Start saying Vesein Tal umatar on Dec 4t hat MAariv unless it is before a leap year in whcih case it is Dec 5th” or google “When do we start” seems os much easier than relying on your method although it usually works.
Who is this easy calculation for?
for those who want to understand how Dec 4th was chosen and why this year its Dec 5th give them the correct answer. Who gains from your incorrect system (although it usually works)?

I randomly grabbed the first 50 years of this century
Here are the dates of the Autumnal equinox, followed by the correct date for start of vesein tal umatar (some of these are Friday night when of course start is delayed for an unrelated reason)
Followed by the start date using your system followed by a Y if the y match and N if they don’t.

They are aligned 43/50 which is 86% pretty good but as a “rule” to keep sharing when it is wrong 14% of the tme I think you should stop sharing your system

Equinox – Correct date – your date – match?
2000 Sep 22 Dec 4 Dec 4 Y
2001 Sep 22 Dec 4 Dec 4 Y
2002 Sep 23 Dec 4 Dec 5 N
2003 Sep 23 Dec 5 Dec 5 Y
2004 Sep 22 Dec 4 Dec 4 Y
2005 Sep 22 Dec 4 Dec 4 Y
2006 Sep 23 Dec 4 Dec 5 N
2007 Sep 23 Dec 5 Dec 5 Y
2008 Sep 22 Dec 4 Dec 4 Y
2009 Sep 22 Dec 4 Dec 4 Y
2010 Sep 23 Dec 4 Dec 5 N
2011 Sep 23 Dec 5 Dec 5 Y
2012 Sep 22 Dec 4 Dec 4 Y
2013 Sep 22 Dec 4 Dec 4 Y
2014 Sep 23 Dec 4 Dec 5 N
2015 Sep 23 Dec 5 Dec 5 Y
2016 Sep 22 Dec 4 Dec 4 Y
2017 Sep 22 Dec 4 Dec 4 Y
2018 Sep 23 Dec 4 Dec 5 N
2019 Sep 23 Dec 5 Dec 5 Y
2020 Sep 22 Dec 4 Dec 4 Y
2021 Sep 22 Dec 4 Dec 4 Y
2022 Sep 23 Dec 4 Dec 5 N
2023 Sep 23 Dec 5 Dec 5 Y
2024 Sep 22 Dec 4 Dec 4 Y
2025 Sep 22 Dec 4 Dec 4 Y
2026 Sep 23 Dec 4 Dec 5 N
2027 Sep 23 Dec 5 Dec 5 Y
2028 Sep 22 Dec 4 Dec 4 Y
2029 Sep 22 Dec 4 Dec 4 Y
2030 Sep 22 Dec 4 Dec 4 Y
2031 Sep 23 Dec 5 Dec 5 Y
2032 Sep 22 Dec 4 Dec 4 Y
2033 Sep 22 Dec 4 Dec 4 Y
2034 Sep 22 Dec 4 Dec 4 Y
2035 Sep 23 Dec 5 Dec 5 Y
2036 Sep 22 Dec 4 Dec 4 Y
2037 Sep 22 Dec 4 Dec 4 Y
2038 Sep 22 Dec 4 Dec 4 Y
2039 Sep 23 Dec 5 Dec 5 Y
2040 Sep 22 Dec 4 Dec 4 Y
2041 Sep 22 Dec 4 Dec 4 Y
2042 Sep 22 Dec 4 Dec 4 Y
2043 Sep 23 Dec 5 Dec 5 Y
2044 Sep 22 Dec 4 Dec 4 Y
2045 Sep 22 Dec 4 Dec 4 Y
2046 Sep 22 Dec 4 Dec 4 Y
2047 Sep 23 Dec 5 Dec 5 Y
2048 Sep 22 Dec 4 Dec 4 Y
2049 Sep 22 Dec 4 Dec 4 Y

(I did this by hand so there might be a typo or error or 2, though doesnt change my overall point)

RE
As in every year past your calculation is wrong.

Its hard to imagine the how mcuh worse current war without the Iron dome, that Obama had requested funding for
Obama has likely saved more Jewish lives than anyone in history since Mordechai and Esther. Thank you Hashem for sending us this shliach