squeak

Who is now considered one of the shoftim, that was not one before the feminist movement? I saw this in a classroom where I davened today and did a double take.

Oy, then all your past nedarim and shevuos were not mikkayim the todah. You better start making proper tanayyim going forward.

Two years ago:

http://www.theyeshivaworld.com/coffeeroom/topic/10-proofs-moshiach-is-coming-now

http://www.theyeshivaworld.com/coffeeroom/topic/moshiach-rumors

http://www.theyeshivaworld.com/coffeeroom/topic/moshiach

One year ago:

http://www.theyeshivaworld.com/coffeeroom/topic/moshiach-1

This year:

http://www.theyeshivaworld.com/coffeeroom/topic/word-on-the-street-in-eretz-yisroel

I bet there are more that I can’t remember (?). I guess if you keep predicting it long enough and often enough, the last prediction will be right.

ICOT, your make some very good points. Most of what we disagree on is opinion, and both opinions can be valid. I’d just like to respond to a few things:

1. I absolutely agree that Masters’ proposed solution would have been a terrible idea. That does not take away from the elegance with which he described the problem – a tremendous feat.

2. I am not aware of what you mean by the “current run up” in the oil market. To the best of my knowledge, the last run up was the one that took us to $120. After that bubble burst, the price dropped like a rock to the 30-40 range, but that was partially rubber band effect (snap the other way) and partially the fact that it was 2008 and no one had any money to take advantage of the arbitrage opportunity. Since that point, the price has more or less settled in the mid $80 range, with a relatively low standard deviation.

3. You wish for $30-40 oil prices without artificial means. In other words, you are hoping to drive out 50% of the buyers from the market. That means that you don’t want China, India, and other oil “newcomers” to have access to oil. I think of that as a selfish wish. [If you will say that your wish is not to remove buyers but to double supply, I will say unequivocally that this is a pipe dream. Production cannot be increased by anywhere near the amount you’d need, and even if massive amounts of oil were discovered today it would take years to reach the market- by which time demand will likely have overtaken it.]

4. I agree with you that the right way to create a disincentive is to raise the price through taxes and not through paying the suppliers more. This is not what is happening – the high price is the result of market forces and not disincentive actions. I am merely pointing out the silver lining when I say that it drives us to other technologies. If I believed in tax disincentives I could move to a country that has them (UK, Israel, EU, etc).

5. Your prediction of future gold prices is something I need to think more about. I think pretty much everyone agrees that there is a bubble in the gold market, but the question is how big is the bubble. You seem to think that 100% of the gains result from the bubble, while I think that the bubble is but one factor coming on the shoulder of price gains due to valid economic factors. It’s hard to deny that investors have permanently changed their thinking when it comes to currency and sovereign debt. It is also hard to deny the effect of inflation on a commodity that is not inflatable. My most liberal guess is that 50% of the gains in gold are from hype and fear – but if you put a microphone in my face I’d say my best estimate is 25-35%. But you could be right, as time will tell.

6. I don’t have any blame theories for the recessions. When I say that I blame stagflation on our work ethic, I mean something entirely different. In less comfortable times, people who had less did with less and dug their heels in. Many people, forced by poverty or other hardship, did things that no comfortable person would. Countless small businesses were created that way. It’s like playing the dice game craps- you might win or lose on the first roll, but if you roll the point you keep on rolling until you get something.

Now we live all in comfort- there are programs to fall back on in hard times, staples are cheap and easy to get, communication and transportation is taken for granted. We have giant efficient companies that make innovation and competition difficult and unnecessary. As a result, in bad times we are playing musical chairs – once you’re out you are eliminated from the game. You won’t find any laid off Vice Presidents looking for “unsuitable” replacement work because they don’t have to. The result is less competition in business, a tougher labor market, and more concentration of capital (rich get richer and everyone else gets poorer).

I feel a bit like a student disagreeing with the teacher and giving his reasons, knowing all the while that the teacher is aware of the arguments the student will bring, has already considered and discarded them, and will now explain why they are invalid.

Nonetheless, the above are my thoughts on this topic.

I appreciate your kind words, but you are too humble. I find your advice here very worthwhile. If mine is also seen as helpful, then that only makes this a better discussion, since we have opposing viewpoints.

I disagree. If you look back at 2007-2008 you will see what was possibly the greatest amount of speculation in any market ever. Michael Master’s testimony convinced – if not proved – to members of Congress that the $120/bb price tag was the result of speculation. The sheer number of uncovered contracts at the time made obvious the scale of the speculators’ influence in the market. As a result, they sought to enact reforms that prevented speculation. Gold has seen nothing quite like it.

I don’t wish. Cheap oil is not healthy and it’s not sustainable. If we artificially kept the price down somehow, what do you think would happen when (stagnant) supplies didn’t meet (growing) demand? You’d have China, India, and the US fighting for their share. The higher price encourages us to seek better (oil free) technology and limits the demand from poorer countries.

What you are describing would be the result of a very painful deflationary period.

The point is that people are not willing to shift their holdings. It’s financial suicide to park your money in any vehicle right now, as it’s been since 2000. Meanwhile the government has been printing money to pay for various stimulus programs. That causes inflation, which drives people with savings to park their money somewhere inflation proof- i.e. gold, because it’s supply doesn’t change. The logic being that even though I’m not going to gain anything, at least I don’t lose. The value of gold hasn’t gone up so much as the value of the dollar it is priced in has shrunk around it. The only way for the value of gold to come down now is if dollars start disappearing and the value of the dollar goes up – i.e. deflation. A permanent change to the money supply means a permanent change to the price at which gold will find support.

Stagflation is a sad commentary on the work ethic of our society. If our people were willing to work the way our ancestors who built the country did, such a state would not be possible. But that’s a whole other discussion.

Icot- do you think oil prices are a bubble too? Will a barrel go back to 30-40? I dont think it will. Not for the same reason, I also dont think gold will go back to those pre-stimulus prices. What you are describing would be the result of a very painful deflationary period.

There was only one family that knew how to make the lechem haponim, and they didnt teach anyone the secret. So even if we tried to make challah look like it, we’d not succeed.

Dont worry, the family was punished.

Which means nothing except that there might be that many fewer hedge funds in a few weeks or months.

I eat green peas, so that the whales should have a good year.

JetBlue is for plebes who drool every time they walk on a plane and pass through business class, but are not important enough for their employer to pay for a seat for them there.

:p

Much better to go business class with any other airline and smile pityingly on those folks as they pass.

I dont recommend dating books. They are only good for a short term relationship, becaue most people will be bored of them after more than 2 reads. As difficult as it may seem, it is ultimately much better for you to date another person.

Greece is not what Europe is afraid of. In fact, both Greece and Ireland essentially defaulted a while back qhen the Central Bank bailed them out (they bought their bonds).

What economists are afraid of is a default by Spain, which has a far larger economy than those two countries combined. There is no telling how bad the fallout would be if that happened.

WOW, what an epiphany! Wolf mentioned life insurance. How can the death benefit be given to the yorshim the instant before death? The benefit is only payable after death!

Kapusta, the only one youll meet will be joey

Who exactly is happy? Not the parents, they’re in the hole for more money than the GDP of a mid sized country. Plus, they’re on the hook for the next who knows how many years for who knows how much money (depending on how dependent these children are). Not the guests, either- they’re annoyed to be invited to yet another wedding, 10 just this week, which means no sleep at all since slichos starts at 5 am, plus they’re in the hole for about $100 worth of gas tolls and babysitting, plus they have to give a wedding gift. And they have to pretend that they’re so happy to see all these people they never otherwise see (there’s a reason why they never otherwise see them – they don’t want to). And they have to wait around staring at their empty soup bowls until practically midnight because the photographer is lousy and couldn’t get the “right” shot.

Basically, the only people who are happy are the ones who are paid to be there and sing. And they’re only happy because they are getting money to be there, which goes back to the parent’s unhappiness. So it would really be disingenuous and selfish for them to sing about any current state of happiness.

bist du gerecht

Koshero?

Besides, I am sure that chofetz chaim has given smicha to some nutcases.

But you don’t know from first hand experience?

😉

(how do I make an evil grin here?)

As far as looking at whether the majority will snack on a slice of pizza, I would say its hard to bring proof from what we do ourselves. I know that I would find pizza good for snacking if not for the fact that I need to wash and bentch. A posteriori, it is suitable only at mealtimes.

Can we judge based on what non jews do? If so, I still don’t know if by majority it is a snack, but I know that I frequently see people eating pizza on the go. It could very well be true that one slice is considered a snack to most people in the US.

Only one signature per IP address? Hmmmmm

I guess Joseph could sign it 5,000 times on his own!

popa, was that you on the mezzanine under the stone arches? On the opposite side of the wine rack? I was going to say hi, or send over a bottle of Merlot, but I didn’t want to make an unwelcome interruption.

….and name calling is the last refuge of the incompetent debater.

New riddle: What travels 60 nanoseconds faster than the speed of light (measured over a distance of 500 miles)?

Hint: it starts with an “h” and ends with an “oax”.

Music wasnt noise? Maybe youve forgotten all the street kids who lugged boomboxes on their shoulders everywhere, including on the subways? I assure you it was not enjoyable for us grown ups. I think that headphones, walkmans, diskmans are great inventions!

Every shul in chicago should call up “popa bar abba” for shlishi this shabbos. See if he’s willing to risk not coming up.