Forum Replies Created
-
Posts
-
You are missing a term. I don’t know what it is, but it’s something very small.
Why would I ever need to describe myself as average?
I am a giant amid pygmies;
A spiritual guru amid atheists;
An elder amid toddlers;
A radical amid the primitive;
A genius amid the lobotomized;
Swift amid zombies.
Not to mention that I am downright friendly amid the bar_abbas 🙂
So that gets me off the hook, at least.
is there a mechitza in the hostel?
when you take someones picture it captures a piece of their soul. the more pictures you let people take the less you retain. that is why nearly all celebrities are so soulless. so someone who values their soul would not allow himself to be photographed.
No, if facebook causes divorces then he could not have ignored them because it wouldn’t help.
give it a few days. the plows cant get to every sidewalk in one day.
During lent, yes, every day.
sounds like someone did a mukdam on the drinking
Desire to not drink much, do you? Hmm? Hmm. Seek a heter then, you must. Yes, hmmm.
Yoda teaches like drunkards drink.
Ssa- your shoes example uses a model far too simple to develop a useable forecast. But given an appropriate amount of data a qualified statistician can forecast trends very accurately. You like your weather forecast right? You like it when you call a company and get connected to customer service rep quickly right? Operations management and weather both rely a great deal on statistics to make forecasts, and wouldnt bother if it didnt help predict the future. If you are interested in how it works, go ahead and study statistics. If youre like me and just like having others do the maths for you, trust them to do their job 🙂
“If the odds of getting 10 in a row of heads or tails can be computed by multiplying .5 to the 9th power and gives us 1 in 500, then how can the z score for the same thing be 1 in 100?”
Since torah613 decided to patronize me, let me provide the answer. Not 42. I refer to popas first post in the thread. “Popa knows statistics. He can run a Z score, and a T score, and all the clever things he can do to convince you of things that aren’t true.”
QED
If you guys are struggling with 10 flips, maybe you can reduce it to 2 flips for simplicity. The chance of getting two heads in a row is one in four. Same chance of getting two tails in a row. With three flips, the chance is one in eight, count em. Just add two possibilites to each of the four from the two flip case. Keep adding a flip at a time and youll get to ten. All your fancy z scores dont mean a thing if they give you the wrong answer.
I never would have imagined that I would one day be explaining something to a statistician. Too bad we lost dr. Pepper.
This is starting to go over my head, but I think you missed what I said. You claimed that 1% of the time you would get a quarter to land on ten heads in a row and I pointed out that it is only a tenth as likely. Everything you said after that was to try and confuse me.
Torah- there are several other blogs that discussed nasi and posters known to be experts (ie not anonymous to the forum) made their points. But most of my due diligence was by asking real people what they think, not online, so I have no links for that. But if you are interested reach out and ask someone who has the analytical ability to help you figure it out for yourself. Nasi offers the easy blameless answer, so it takes some willpower to allow yourself to disbelieve it.
” To my knowledge, not one reputable statistician has weighed in on this.”
The truth is many have weighed in, but NASI did not like what they heard so shouted them down.
Popa- your example with the quarter is also incorrect, sorry. Shame on me because I just skipped over it expecting you to be right. But the chance of a quarter landing on the same side 10 times in a row is less than one in a tbousand. I dont know t and z, but I can multiply 50% by itself as many times as need be.
“Ever saw their red, blue and gray chart? They claim……..”
Yes, they claim many things. Its one of their greatest achievements. Making claims.
” higher variance means the spread of the data is larger, covering a wider range.”
But that doesnt tell you enough. If one mean is hgher than the other, there will be some above average points in set 1 that are still below the other mean. Sure, you can make up an example that proves your point, but you didnt give enough information at first to state your conclusion.
And skoyach, popa!
” If Lakewood boys have a lower average intelligence, but with higher variance, than boys from Brisk, then if you date an above average boy from Lakewood, he is probably more intelligent than an average Brisk boy.”
Inconclusive. He could be more or less.
” Statistics allows you to say TRUE or FALSE by turning generalizations into quantified facts.”
Patently false. No amount of statistics yields facts.
” NASI (National Abusers of Statistical Information), is an example of an organization that abuses statistics.”
No, their entire problem is that they completely lack statistics and instead use emotional anecdotery. Would that they abused statistics, for then they could be made to see reason.
You asked for our thoughts so here they are. Study harder for your test.
You shouldve took the gelt…. you never listen when I say you should take the gelt.
I’m sorry, was there a crime committed here that I missed?
In my world, a guy who vents frustration over the parking situation by claiming he will do this or that is no more guilty of a crime than the tippish who took him seriously. No one needs to be stripped of their credibility or ordination because of a rant. Are you related to the guy who wrote the count of monte cristo, or do you just share a last name?
I have a subtitle for BPM. “Takes rants at face value”
We should take care of handicap spot takers internally and not involve the police.
Well you should always read the label, always read it well.
It is not illegal, rather punishable. In other countries however, parking in front of a shul is a scare and so should never be done.
.Sweatshop boss comes in just ahead of slave owner these days. The reparations you owe are more than the machines are worth. So my advice is junk it, run and hide. (For Godwins sake) this sounds like selling inherited zyklon b canisters.
Kill the pig
I have a new favorite mod 🙂 🙂
Unless it was done by my standing favorite mod, in which case I have an old favorite.
I was being mean. But also pointing out that this is making something of nothing. Its no fun to point out though if I have to make him feel good about it.
I would have stared at all the snow on the ground. Or did that disappear?
It should be someones subtitle so the link is always on hand
how about the link in someone’s username?
Two things:
1. You can always use an SMS translator to read a text speak encrypted post. For example http://transl8it.com/
2. Perhaps more importantly, the person in question is most likely using such a site for its english to text translating capability to encrypt posts. Dont forget what this site is (and what we’ve seen before). Spelling mistakes dont get translated correctly if at all, which indicates that one probably is being used.
Order a package of dye bombs.
Is the heating element a kli? Or is it just a rod that the water passes around? Genuinely asking.
Happy belated birthday.
The point is that if the most capable ones stayed in learning it would embarrass the bench warmers out of there. So they go, leaving the ones who dont make anyone feel inadequate.
Great practical joke, except you missed the part about the clean getaway. I bet everyone i there was shouting at you for holding the door open letting cold in. By then they were perfectly willing to deal with the dog instead of the crazy guy with his can of oil (or gasoline for all they knew). This can be compared to the man who helps a short little boy ring a doorbell and then asks, now what? Instead of running away like he should.
If the people here were characters from The Purim Story, who would be whom? I’ll start.
zahavasda- Sir Squeegee
Ferd- Sir Tofes
popa- Shikkur (because he is so giving with his alcohol)
Joseph- Alvin, Simon, and Theordore, among others (obviously)
Now watch as people reply to this without even considering the fact that the premise is made up.
If you arent noheg to tovel plastic what parts need tvila besides the 2 pins?
How did you get your first two wives to agree to marry a third?
Sounds like you are making the assumptions here. You think it is likely that Oorah k ew there is an issue? Thats one. That they asked a shaila about it? Thats two. That they did all this beforehand and incorporated it into the rules? Three.
Why dont you take a look yourself and find out if what I say has any basis.
And for those interested , yes I have discussed this with a mumche in hilchos ribbis.
RegularJew, I dont mean to ignore you but I am not about to debate the role of kiruv orgs in our generation because it wont do anyone any good. I happen to be of the opinion that they are disproportionately funded relative to their value to yiddishkeit compared to other tzedaka causes. You are free to disagree.
Mod, I hear your point and I concede it is not a simple or straightforward issue here. However, since the rules do not describe any halachic workarounds, the contract is that if you win they are required to pay you 100x per year for 10 years. But you can exempt them from the full obligation by accepting half as an immediate payment, which is an issur ribbis drabbonon. Stated another way, if you want your money now you only get half. They can fix this by saying they will pay 1000x whether you ask for it upfront or over time.
From the other perspective (since it is ambiguous) maybe the prize is 500x right now but if you let them pay over time you get 1000x. Then it is ribbis doraisa. The winner then might be able to prevent the ribbis by refusing the alternative offered and allowing them to pay 500x over 10 years or immediately. But what kind of business is that for a kiruv org to leave control of the ribbis issue up to whoever wins? Chances are the winner will have no idea what ribbis even means.
Joseph, your understanding of halacha is as shallow as the Great Sahara Lake.
You need to stop sniffing your cologne
As it is taught in seminaries, it is better to live as one than to live as two together and working.