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I’ll be glad to respond to each point in turn, but let me just answer the quickest one since I have a minute now. Elite and non-Elite are determined collectively, democratically, by those in the shidduch parsha. They vote with their dates (just so thats not misunderstood, its a cute way of saying that you cast a vote when you agree to a date). So Elite is not a judgement on my part, rather an objective result of a democratic process.
Just saw the reactions to my post and I am a tad surprised, but thats OK. One of the things I always liked about my posts is the many different levels on which they could be understood.
The attitudes here are endemic of the shidduch crisis. I have said all along that the crisis needs to be understood through game theory. At the center of the crisis are the “elites”, i.e. the 22-24 year old boys who want to learn and be supported, and the 19-21 year old girls who have been taught to be machshiv torah to the exclusion of all else and have a plan for parnassa. Everyone else falls into other categories. Yet it is common for the non-elites to insist on marrying elites, and to consider marrying someone in their own category to be “settling”. As we have here with a working man who is also the wrong age, who feels that he should be dating the same girls that the most elite boys date, and expects the shadchanim dealing with such boys to treat him the same.
The result is a profound lack of equilibrium, since the number of elites is obviously far less than the number of both elites and non-elites on the other side. A shadchan who wants to succeed has to focus on elites almost exclusively, since non-elites are barely sought after even by other non-elites. So it is not surprising that boys are the focus of shadchanim, because the criteria for elite boys is far more objective than for elite girls. Nor is it surprising when a boy identifies himself as non-elite and finds no one interested in him. It is not a reflection on him but on his society and his values.
Hence my comment to go after working girls. Non elites can win at this game by striving for their own equilibrium, i.e. by looking for non-elites and avoiding the channels that the OP is focusing on. Chasing the elite pool of girls is to his own detriment (not to mention that it directly worsens the shidduch crisis).
Since we’re naming theories these days, you can call this one the Squeaquilibrium Theory of the Shidduch Crisis. Maybe if I had named mine back in the beginning it would have gotten as much attention as the more infamous one.
When its that cold, the only thing to do is get wasted so you dont feel it. Or to build a fire. This thread proves that the former is more likely.
Nu, so the bjj and hadar graduates wont consider you. Youre barking up the wrong tree. Working guys need to set their sights lower, say for working girls.
Chabad does not do conversions. Maybe they once did.
I grew up in Jurassic Park and its got to be at least 20 feet high before I call it a big lizard.
Popa- your subtitle should be changed to “arbitrarily a man”.
Sharon once kept Shabbos while in office – through Rabbeinu Tam zman – at the request of a bomb victim. Now he has kept Shabbos for 8 years straight. Tzaddik or no, he has huge zchusim per the gedolim http://www.theyeshivaworld.com/coffeeroom/topic/being-able-to-fargin-nature-or-nurture
“You’ve agreed to the basic equation, you’re just saying that migration could mitigate or eliminate the disparity. Hamotzi meichaveiroi alav haraya.”
The motzi in this case is not me, but NASI. I favor doing nothing (until a good suggestion comes along). They want to (and have) shaken up the frum world. They should bring rayos. But they have not.
“If anything, more boys seem to go otd or migrate to
non shidduch communities, and more girls seem to become bt.”
Precisely.
“the observed disparity isn’t merely an illusion IF there would be no negative side effects.
That’s a big IF, though, but I’ve not really commented much on that aspect of it. We might agree on that issue.”
My friend, if you don’t agree with what someone is doing, you don’t support them partially. You oppose them thoroughly. The side efeects here are worse than the benefit (and the potential sixe effects are thousands of times worse than the potential benefit) so these people need to be stopped. Even if you believe their foundation is solid and true (and I dont), you need to judge them by their actions. The road to hell is paved with good intentions.
DY, your comments in this thread and the one you linked expose you as having only the most rudimentary understanding of demography and methematics. For example, if the ratio is 100:105 at birth then it will be fairly similar at age 20. Why would you say it gets much narrower? Death occurs in both genders at a very low rate and even if you were to prove that one gender had a significantly higher death rate it would not be higher by anywhere near 5% of the cohort.
Second, to establish a growth rate for a specific segment of humanity, you need to have a much more sophisticated equation than the one you keep throwing around. Telling me how many children an average family has does not tell me enough about the birth rate but lets leave that alone for now. Assuming you did have enough information to quantify birth rates properly, you have ignored all other variables. The most important ones being death rates, entry from group and exit from group, among others. My understanding is that death rates are not very significant (hey, at least im consistent. You cant ignore death rates in one post and tben say they eliminate 5% of your population in the next post) so lets set that aside too. That bring me to the heart of the matter, which is entry and exit from your segment. And believe me brother, any way you cut it that is a huge, not just significant, factor that cannot be missing from your equation if you want to have any credibility at all. Whether we are discussing baalei tsuva and otd, or migration across sub segment (chassidish girls going out with litvish boys is a big one) or any other element of this factor, the gender makeup of this migration pattern az well as the timing is a major element. Some intellectual honesty. Please.
The avi chai study that nasi folks flaunt sbamelessly is far from reliable. To be blunt, it is crock. Compare the numbers in two separate studies (from different years) and you will see that migration is clouding the data. Otherwise, why isnt the 5th grade population the same as the 2nd grade population from the study 3 years prior? Without migration the number of kids would be the same.
The letter signed by tbe 70 is crock too. They were obviously mislead into signing something that shamelessly made opinion appear like fact. Whatever the intentions of the writers were, that was wrong.
Farkoift v’echol farkoift u’shesay.
DY- of course, the premise is flawed. The disparity as you refer to it is an illusion. It’s not a numbers problem but a selection problem.
I said I read thay. Everyone knows that it is impossible to read while you are dreaming, because it is a distinctly separate part of the brain. You should not have interpretdd that as a dream, now my confidence in your ability is lost.
In that case az, i look forward to singing utzu eitzah v’sufahr again on each “activity” individually.
Thanks Achashverosh!
Arent all dream interpretations supposed to be unfavorable? You are much more likely to get repeat customers when you validate their fears for them. I read that somewhere.
Color it with black crayon
GM1 tell your father to email me even one report in its rawest form. Mods can handle the routing. Not that i am qualified to agree or disagree with it (though i know people who i could show it to and ask) but i dont believe any such thing exists. The only work or data that i have been allowed to see was phony balony extrapolation based on unreliable (fundamentally broken) data. No actuary or mathematician has been willing to show his face or name in connection with any write up or presentation, and for good reason.
Now show me youre not bluffing.
No, I have. I just didnt repeat myself every time az rolled out the age gap train. The shidduch crisis is almost definitely a result of unrealistic expectations and standards, coupled with a lack of self awareness and or self honesty on the part of most 20 something year olds.
I dont have a horse in the race so its easy to be more passionate about this than me and drown out my opinions. But its not as though I dont have any. In this case, my beef was with the manipulation and force feeding on the part of az and his ilk, and really had nothing to do with the specific theory under discussion.
DY- Way to misrepresent the facts! Howsabout you stick to speaking for your own self.
Come on yiddin lets sing a niggun:
Utzu eitzah v’sufahr…
I go to a different shul for shabbos than during the week, likavod shabbos. The shul that i dont go to uses a different room as the sanctuary for shabbos than during the week, but im holding on a higher level.
A wife and child for a mesivta bochur! Now thats forward thinking!
Im not aware that there is a shidduch crisis. At least, we havent seen az crawl out of the woodwork in some time, so i assume problem solved.
Yeah, as of 1 day ago.
What most people dont know is that electronic cigs are manufactured by the NSA. There is a micro bug inside that records and transmits everything you say to their listening stations. Did you notice how the ecigs only started to take off after Snowden blew the lid on their conventional spying methods? No coincidence, they simply found a different way in. Youve been warned.
You tell me popa. Would you answer the question by explaining Hashem or by explaining infinity?
Well, if she actually wants an answer she should ask a mathematician instead of a rav. And she needs to promise not to yawn when he answers her.
The old high chairs, the playthings, too, the little shoes they wore
Try this for logic. From the OP: Numbers are infinite. Only Hashem is infinite. Ergo, numbers are Hashem. QED.
I find questions such as these sophomoric. They reveal a fundamental misunderstanding of the concepts under discussion. Not going to give a lecture here about infinities (of which there are several) but suffice it to say there is nothing to worry yourself over.
Simros ashan. The legal kind obviously.
No leach ergo no leech. Thats a good thing. Also, dayge nisht. Give the hot peppers a chance to prove themselves.
Its a mindset, not a location. That aside, I do appreciate what the mod did, it conveys my initial reaction far better than I actually did.
Listen yo yiddish gems. Volume i or ii. Both. At the same time, for best results.
Ive had them homemade. It congeals in the fridge and turns to liquid in 10 minutes after taking it out of the fridge. No big deal.
Theres always a unifying theme to every post by an MO bleep.
Used tires don’t match my ferragamo belt. Next youll tell us to buy only used lambos. No thanks.
I agree with ubiquitin
The reason most of these stories involve a tavern is because that is generally where they were made up, during typical drinking one upmanship entertainment. Like Paul Bunyan, only since the heroes happened to be Rebbes in the Jewish stories, they became Gospel.
When you’re done, you can check to see if you were more or less enlightening than this.
Come on oomis. You know that the whole binah yesaira thing is just patronizing women. If tbere actually were any binah yesaira in the world, the men would of course be the ones to have it.
Obamacare has nothing to do with healthcare but only with health insurance. Health care quantity and quality has always been dependent on ability to pay in this country, and nothing is changing in that regard. The Act just puts the insurance companies in a bind in many different ways and puts a strain on employers, but does nothing to help the end users or deliverers of health care. So what exactly do you like?
Avidi ligiluyei?!
They want to hear stories of overcoming personal challenges. Write about the time you had to get up before 10am on a Sunday for your nephew’s bris. Or about the time your razzle was missing a topping but you kept quiet when the server begged you not to make a scene.
This is my worst day of chanuka because im so hungry. Bentching is so long, it doesnt pay to eat.
that’s what g-tubes are for
Yoshke would do nothing. He’s dead.
Because when I signal you suddenly notice that I’m about to pass you and you try to block me or steal my lane. If you’d just come to terms with being a slowpoke and let me on my way we’d be at peace.
When I’m in a turning lane that is marked for left only or right only I don’t signal because its redundant. All other times I do signal.
Sometimes I signal when I’m not about to turn. For example, if someone pulls up next to me at a light indicating he will try to cut me off on green, I will signal that I’m about to turn into him and rattle him, then blow smoke in his engine intake when the light turns.
And you didnt even mention the smell….
If you dont have time on erev shabbos, you can just post on shabbos. Its no different than texting.
(just kidding)
Herman Cain’s Guide to Tefilla. Like gavra said.
Sam and ROB- it is clearly a sensitivity, not an outright issur. If Rav Huna mentioned that a great city was destroyed for this behavior, that says to me I should think twice about doing it myself. That is all.