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Popa, the women are generally between 20-40.
that’s quite a range. would you like me to run some calculations on that?
DY: you’re saying it is obvious at what ages of the parents those average 4 children are born?
Very well so tell us when.
DY: Certainly you don’t think that 25% of girls are remaining single. That is preposterous.
lso, I don’t think we need to calculate the gender breakdown for aliya as someone mentioned earlier because kids don’t make aliya by themselves, so we’d assume that it mirrors whatever the gender ratio is.
Not so. Many young adults make aliyah themselves before they are married.
See, this is why you need a REAL STUDY. Because boich sevaros don’t think of everything.
Ok, so here’s a numerical example that shows that you cannot extrapolate population growth from birth rate without knowing the parents’ age. I will use an extreme example because my rebbe in numbers taught me to use extreme examples to pressure test calculations.
Constants: Birth rate per couple is 4 (so per person is 2). In other words, on average each person has 2 children between when they are born and when they die. We start in year 1 with 1 couple and calculate to year 100. Population growth will be calculated as the increase in percentage per year. Everyone lives until the year 100 and then all die. The first couple is Generation A, and so on.
Scenario 1: Generation A gives birth to quadruplets in year 1. Generation B each give birth to quadruplets in year 2. Generation C each gives birth to quadruplets in year 3. And so on for each of the 100 years.
Result 1:
Year 0: 2 people.
Year 1: 4 births.
Year 2: 8 births.
Year 3: 16 births.
Year 4: 32 births
5: 64
6: 128
7: 256
8: 512
9: 1024
10: 2048 Births
Year 100: Many many many
Population growth rate: Ask Charlie.
Scenario 2: Generation A gives birth to quadruplets in year 50. Generation B each give birth to quadruplets in year 100. And so on for each of the 100 years.
Year 0: 2 people
Year 1: 2 people
Year 2: 2 people
…
Year 50: 4 births
Year 51: 0 births
Year 52: 0 births
Year 100: 16 births!
Total people in year 100: 22
Population growth (22-2)/100
I’ll put together a numerical example and show you how brilliant I am.
Alternatively you can do it first and be almost as brilliant
My question is: what would be the typical population growth by percentage for a four children average, or for a five children average?
My doctorates are not in statistics, but shouldn’t you also need to know how old the parents are when they are having these children?
(example: Suppose mice live one day and have 5 children. what is their population growth compared to elephants who live 10 years and have 5 children?)
It’s ok. We knew it was you all along.
I found 5 canadian coins in my shabbos tallis bag.
On the front they have a picture of some goyteh and say Elizabeth II and 5 dollars 2013.
On the back it says Canada Fine silver 1 oz argent pur, and 9999.
1. Can I assume these are mine?
2. Does that make me a kohen?
3. Can I use them for pidyon haben?
Well Watson Ivory, I’m asking if Canadian silver coins works. I’m obviously not asking whether canadian toilet paper works.
Does canadian money work?
Didn’t Caller used to be a big real estate lawyer? I assume he knows what he’s doing.
Is Hikind running against him? Why is he involved?
They can talk about it, but only in third person.
Example:
Sarah: so, what do you think about the pshat I heard tosfos has in tzaras niddah?
Rivkah: well, someone told me they don’t understand how it would change the limud of hukshu kol harayos just because it isn’t “domeh to an achos ishah”.
Sarah: I heard that someone needs to think about it, but I’m sure they’ll get back to me to get back to you.
What does pasuach lerabim mean?
The way to prove you met him is to tell us an original Dr. Pepper story.
Prove you met him.
Posh! I made this joke up in 4th grade as a way of making fun of psychology tests such as the rorscarch blots.
I like french fries.
Had to leave NY? The Syrians are a small minority in NY. There are plenty of communities you could join without involving the syrians.
its poshut- the dude would turn up at the funeral and she could get his info.
That makes no sense. If she didn’t ask for the info the first time, what reason does she have to think she would do it the second time.
The real answer is that the guy will come over and yell at her for killing her sister, and then she can ask him out then.
Did the sister have all the same relatives that she had? Or was the sister like a half-sister?
And popa, there are no reshaim today? Meiheicha teisi?
I’ve never met one.
I’ve never met anyone who had stopped being frum where there wasn’t a very obvious reason.
And Rabbi Weiss is even according to his most bitter opponents a completely frum Jew, meeting the standards of a kosher eid.
I hardly think I am his most bitter opponent. (In fact, I hardly think there is anything bitter at all about my opposition.) And I do not agree with you on this. I think it would be extremely difficult to accept his testimony even in an agunah situation.
Thank you for the thoughtful response.
On the avos, I would respond that good parents are not guaranteed children who are tzadikim. But Yishmael and Esav were not maladjusted children–they were just reshaim.
Kids who go off the derech are not reshaim; they are just maladjusted.
How much is tuition at Hogwarts?
Does the ministry pay for it?
Why don’t they pay for your books also?
The magical people clearly practice age gap marriage. Is there a shidduch crisis?
Is that why mcgonagal is not married? But neither are any of the professors!
Maybe more women are mudbloods or more men are squibs?
(See, HP really is just like judaism!)
Hello Lamud vov by which we mean Joseph.
I saw on a diff web site that when you eat a lollipop, you are really just eating your own flavored saliva.
Ok.
So let’s define that you might be asking any of three questions:
1. How can you recognize someone who is yeshivish? This spawned answers such as white shirts.
2. What ideas must you believe in to be considered yeshivish? This spawned answers such as “no college.”
3. What are the central tenets of yeshivishism? This didn’t spawn any answers, although it is probably the one you were asking.
But you see, the question makes no sense because there is no such thing as yeshivishism. The term was invented to describe a communal group–namely the right wing of litvish, and associated with the leadership of the large litvish yeshivos other than YU. But it doesn’t have rules, and it doesn’t have rites of entry. It isn’t a movement, it is (or at least purports to be) the establishment.
While you might have articles and books defining “Modern Orthodoxy” (See. e.g. Rabbis Lichtenstein and Lamm) you will never find a book or article defining yeshivishism.
Alternatively bec lots of aunts and uncles today are very young themselves.
It means “like a yeshiva”. In any aspect.
So if you never can pay your bills-youre yeshivish
If you are old and decrepit-you are yeshivish
If you are in NY or NJ- you are yeshivish
V’chuli
I’ll start – I have one child who has finished IDF service, and once in now.
Shkoyach!
I had several second cousins in the IDF. One is married to a woman from a family that was kicked out of gush katif.
Back to the shidduch crisis. Pogrow had a two page article in this week’s mishpacha. I’m sure he used at least part of that space to tell us what he’d based his conclusions on.
No, he didn’t.
And his authority to overrule chazal. Don’t forget that part.
Why do you need the male/female breakdown? Just assume it’s 50/50. The point is that the later the year, the more kids.
Great idea!
Or, or, just assume there are twice as many boys as girls! And just drop a footnote saying you made some reasonable assumptions.