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Aaq,
There is a 3 page executive summary of the report that goes with an over 100 page report.
The quotes were from Hamodia on July 21. Available Online.
People who make a living from polling accurately, have a gigantic motivation to get it right. If they got it wrong, it is more reasonable to assume that they are missing something when polling, than bias.Regarding “there are several recent analyses of 2020 polls done by center-left organizations They concluded that polls favored Biden and Ds in other races by 4-5% all over despite corrections that were made after 2016. 2016 bias was identified due to several specific factors – such as undervaluing low-educated voter support for Trump (his famous quip “I love low educated” was correct). for 2020, they can’t point to a specific problem. This corresponds to right claims before the elections that polls are consistently showing commanding advantage for Biden, leading to vote suppression – why bother voting, if a candidate has no chance. Intentionality is unresolved, but fact of “systemic bias” confirmed.”
The analysis that this was systemic bias is incorrect because the AAPOR concluded that the republican pollsters did not do any better. “It is not clear that Republican pollsters did any better ” said Josh Clinton, a professor at Vanderbilt University and the chair of the AAPOR association’s 2020 election task force.
The official report done by AAPOR, American Association for Public Opinion Research shows that the National surveys of the 2020 presidential contest were the least accurate in 40 years, while the state polls were the worst in at least two decades.“All partisan pollsters have the same incentive to get this right but Democratic pollsters and Republican pollsters were off by equal amounts. ” Professor Clinton said.
The report totally rejects the false accusation that the ” left-center organizations ” polling were intentionally biased against Trump.
(I know that the Trump supporters are going to trash this report just like they trash everything else that is not in sync with their ideology.)
This whole thread is one big fat lie.
I am no longer surprised by these posts and I have stopped commenting, but even I have a limit when reading lies.
Biden on Twitter yesterday at 11:30 AM.
“We stand with the Cuban people as they bravely assert their fundamental and universal rights, and as they all call for freedom and relief from the tragic grip of the pandemic and from the decades of repression and economic suffering.”Biden in a brief exchange with reporters at the start of a meeting with mayors and law enforcement officials to discuss gun violence in the U.S said ,”“The Cuban people are demanding their freedom from an authoritarian regime. I don’t think we’ve seen anything like this protest in a long long time, if, quite frankly, ever,”
Besides the top Democrat and leader of the free world not being silent, his press secretary also commented.
White House press secretary Jen Psaki on Monday sought to frame the protests being driven by far broader frustration, calling the demonstrations “spontaneous expressions of people who are exhausted with the Cuban government’s economic mismanagement and repression.”
“permanent peace”? Please tell that to the people who died, suffered property damage, and were forced into bomb shelters in the past 2 weeks.
Trump lost because he never expanded his base.
His own party rejected him and ran ads against him.
The Jews who voted for Biden never made a difference in his loss.Nisht,
Because there are posts everyday that are either outright lies or completely biased about Biden and democrats.
More than Trump defenders?! Please check Health and Lakewhut and many others on this board who defended Trump from every criticism for 5 years and still continue.Tvap,
I take what she says with a grain of salt.
The point is that her eyewitness testimony is just as valid as the “affadavits” that caused republicans to demand recounts,a whole new election, and a mantra that the election was stolen.
I have posted this before. The republicans don’t get to decide that they are the only ones who get to question elections.Sarah S,
The answer to your question has been asked and answered at least 100 times on YWN.
(Funny, how you never asked how Trump was religious when he stole from his 8 different charities and can’t operate a charity anymore.)
Suffice it to say that Biden is a very religious man and his religion does not prevent him from allowing people of other religions and faiths, or people of no faith and no religion, to live freely in America and worship as they choose.
He did not protect her. He rejected her and her fellow beheimos. (Beheimos ? Is that a Torah concept for Tzelem Elokim’s ? Do you want the goyim to believe that we believe they are beheimos ?
Maybe you can give us a history listen on what you believe this great nation once stood for that Biden is destroying?
LW,
You clearly did NOT listen to his 3 minute remarks because he did NOT take credit for the cease-fire.
In fact, he thanked many people and many nations that were involved in the effort.
He also prayed to G-D publicly that the peace should continue since he is a obviously a very religious man and is not ashamed to say so.This audit is the gift that never ends.
Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs has told Maricopa County to decommission its voting machines that were touched by cyber ninjas. They can no longer be trusted.Health ,
That Bernie and the Squad are anti Israel/pro-palestinian has been know since day one.
Nothing new.
(Nobody that I know of voted or even could have voted for any of them since we do not live in their districts. )You and LW are posting as if they are the current policy of the democratic party.
They are not.
Bernie lost to Biden and the squad are under Biden’s control. Biden isn’t one of them and he never will be. He is the leader of the USA and the current policy maker for the democratic party.
The squad is applying pressure and Biden isn’t caving in to it.The only disaster which you did not see (but knew was coming when Trump hinted that he would not accept the results of the election last time and this time) was that the Republican’s destroyed our democratic election system by not accepting the results of the presidential election and trying to illegally overturn the duly elected president of the US on Jan 6.
They kicked Liz Cheney from her leadership position because she would not agree to the “BIG LIE”.
They will not even setup a committee to examine the “BIG LIE” because they know that it would lead to many of them being indicted as co-conspirators.The republican party would love to have trump or a similar fascist as president. Trump was good for the jews. But who says that the next one will also be?
Sincerely, your favorite YWN ‘DemonCrat’. 🙂
How many buyers are there for the Ketzos in English and how many for children’s books?
Do the math.That’s who they fired.
Sorry, this is no proof to the convoluted idea that who CNN hires reflects on democrats.H,
I introduce to you the President of the United States. He is a Democrat.
His name is Joe Biden.He approved the sale.
Check mate.
The Gemara asks: Say that you heard that Rabbi Yehuda rules that one is liable for performing a labor not needed for its own sake in the case of a constructive act; did you hear him deem one liable in the case of a destructive act? Rabbi Avin said: This case, Rabbi Shimon ben Elazar says in the name of Ḥilfa bar Agra, who said in the name of Rabbi Yoḥanan ben Nuri: One who rends his garments in his anger, or who breaks his vessels in his anger, or who scatters his money in his anger, should be like an idol worshipper in your eyes, as that is the craft of the evil inclination. Today it tells him do this, and tomorrow it tells him do that, until eventually, when he no longer controls himself, it tells him worship idols and he goes and worships idols. Rabbi Avin said: What verse alludes to this? “There shall not be a strange god within you, and you shall not bow to a foreign god” (Psalms 81:10). What is the strange god that is within a person’s body? Say that it is the evil inclination. One may not rend his garments in anger, because in doing so he is deriving pleasure from satisfying the evil inclination.
Shabbat.105b.8
Halacha Eisav Soneh es Yakov . Includes republicans
The republicans were part of the umos haolam that asked Hashem, “what’s in it?” And we’re not given the Torah.Hashem loves only those who love the Am Yisroel” (Mesillas Yesharim – Perek 19). The frum Jewish people love Hashem. And when you love them, then Hashem loves you. וכל מה שאדם מגדיל אהבתו לישראל הקדוש ברוך הוא מגדיל עליו – “And the more you love the frum Jews, the more Hashem loves you (ibid.)
This one is too easy .
Adeel is a Pakistani living in Islamabad.
He has nothing to do with democrats.
Raja used the occasion of the 2014 World Cup to remark that he would be supporting Germany in the finals because “Hitler was a German and he did good with those Jews!” Leaving no doubt about his allegiances, he added a “hail Hitler!” the next day.CNN was wrong. They admitted and fired him.
He never was a major CNN contributor. His last byline was in September 2020 about local issues.There has now been testimony from a observer of the recount who says :
” I watched the GOP’s Arizona election audit. It was worse than you think. Cyber Ninjas is hunting for bamboo fibers and cheese dust.”
“I expected it to be unconventional. But it was so much worse than that. In more than a decade working on elections, audits and recounts across the country, I’ve never seen one this mismanaged.”“I was stunned to see spinning conveyor wheels, whizzing hundreds of ballots past “counters,” who struggled to mark, on a tally sheet, each voter’s selection for the presidential and Senate races. They had only a few seconds to record what they saw. Occasionally, I saw a counter look up, realize they missed a ballot and then grab the wheel to stop it. This process sets them up to make so many mistakes, I kept thinking. Humans are terrible at tedious, repetitive tasks; we’re especially bad at counting. That’s why, in all the other audits I’ve seen, bipartisan teams follow a tallying method that allows for careful review and inspection of each ballot, followed by a verification process. I’d never seen an audit use contraptions to speed up the process.
Speed doesn’t necessarily pose a problem if the audit has a process for catching and correcting mistakes. But it didn’t. Each table had three volunteers tallying the ballots, and their tally sheets were considered “done” as long as two of the three tallies matched, and the third was off by no more than two ballots. The volunteers only recounted if their tally sheets had three or more errors — a threshold they stuck to, no matter how many ballots a stack contained, whether it was 50 or 100. This allowed for a shocking amount of error. Some table managers told the counters to go back and recount when there were too many errors; other table managers just instructed the counters to fix their “math mistakes.” At no point did anyone track how many ballots they were processing at their station, to ensure that none got added or lost during handling.”
October 3, 1984 by Rabbi Moses Feinstein wrote:
On reaching the shores of the United States, Jews found a safe haven. The rights guaranteed by the United States Constitution and the Bill of Rights have allowed us the freedom to practice our religion without interference and to live in this republic in safety.A fundamental principle of Judaism is hakaras hatov—recognizing benefits afforded us and giving expression to our appreciation. Therefore, it is incumbent on each Jewish citizen to participate in the democratic system which guards the freedoms we enjoy. The most fundamental responsibility incumbent on each individual is to register and to vote.Therefore, I urge all members of the Jewish community to fulfill their obligations by registering as soon as possible, and by voting. By this, we can express our appreciation and contribute to the continued security of our community.
However, considering that the people during the Second Temple period were engaged in Torah study, observance of mitzvot, and acts of kindness, and that they did not perform the sinful acts that were performed in the First Temple, why was the Second Temple destroyed? It was destroyed due to the fact that there was wanton hatred during that period. This comes to teach you that the sin of wanton hatred is equivalent to the three severe transgressions: Idol worship, forbidden sexual relations and bloodshed. Yoma 9B
However, considering that the people during the Second Temple period were engaged in Torah study, observance of mitzvot, and acts of kindness, and that they did not perform the sinful acts that were performed in the First Temple, why was the Second Temple destroyed? It was destroyed due to the fact that there was wanton hatred during that period. This comes to teach you that the sin of wanton hatred is equivalent to the three severe transgressions: Idol worship, forbidden sexual relations and bloodshed. Yoma 9B
AAQ,
Gevaldig.
The whole aggadata needs a biur.
What tayna is the Rasha saying , I am patur because of tarud byitzri?In most Sephardic congregations, before the Tora is read on the first day of Shabu’ot, we recite a very special “marriage certificate or Ketuba” which compares the relationship between God and Israel to a “marriage”. The Covenant of Love between God and Israel that we remember on Shabu’ot was formalized with the giving of the Tora, in the same way that a marriage between husband and wife is formalized with the giving of the Ketuba. This comparison between the God-Israel’s covenant and a marriage is not new. It is mentioned numerous times in the Tanakh. Interestingly, the Haftara that we read this last Shabbat (Hoshea 2: 21-22) mentions the beautiful words that God said to Israel: “I will take you as My wife forever. I will marry you with justice, right, kindness and compassion. I will marry you and I will be eternally faithful to you, and thus you will know that I am Your God… ” .
The Shavuot ketuba was written by R’ Yisroel Najara (1555-1625) who lived at the end of his life in Gaza.BMG Rosh Yeshiva Harav Malkiel Kotler shlita came home after a medical procedure.
BH, may he have a long healthy life and lead the Yeshiva and Klal Yisroel to greet Moshiach, bmhaira byamenu.Bloodletting on the New Moon and on the second day of the month causes weakness; bloodletting on the third day of the month leads to danger. Bloodletting on the eve of a Festival causes weakness; bloodletting on the eve of the festival of Shavuot leads to danger. And the Sages issued a decree prohibiting bloodletting on the eve of every Festival due to the festival of Shavuot. On Shavuot, an evil spirit named Tibbuaḥ, from the Hebrew word meaning slaughter, emerges, as had the Jewish people not accepted the Torah on the festival of Shavuot, Tibbuaḥ would have slaughtered their flesh and their blood. Consequently, it remains a dangerous day.
Shabbos139bRav Avigdor Miller on Shavuos Night Sleep
Q:
Should I stay up on Shavuos night?A:
There’s no question that it’s a big zchus to stay up on Shavuos night. Now, some people however are ill, they’re physically weak, so I’m not telling you what to do. But if you’re capable, there’s no reason why not because it’s a demonstration of what we said before – for an important event it pays to be up all night.There was one time when I was in Williamsburg – the old Satmerer Rav was still alive then. So I went in to see him because I was going to do something, a job, for him. I was the one who composed the advertisement against the Zionists that was placed in the New York Times – I wrote it for the Satmerer Rav. So I went in to him and he gave me a bracha that I should succeed. And I was up all night writing that article. Over and over again, I worked on it. All night I was up because it was important!
Now, when you’re going to accept the Torah and you know how important it is, so you stay up all night. Just like they stayed up that night at Har Sinai. That’s our tradition, that they were up all night. They couldn’t sleep; they didn’t want to sleep, they were so excited. The truth is that you do want to sleep, but l’zeicher, to remember what our forefathers did we act as if we are excited to stay up all night.
Now we have to know that everything in the halacha is with a grain of salt. It’s not a mitzvah min hatorah to stay up. It’s not even a takanas chachomim. It’s a minhag of the Am Yisroel. And therefore, if you have any chashoshos, any suspicions, about your health, so consult somebody. And if he’ll tell you it’s better you should sleep, so you go to sleep. But otherwise there’s no question that Klal Yisroel is up that night and it makes a tremendous impression on them. They feel like they’re walking in the footsteps of our fathers who prepared in that manner by staying up all night waiting for that great day of Kabolas Hatorah.
TAPE # E-109
How fortunate are the daf yomi yidden that learned the gemara today in Yoma Daf 35.
§ The Sages taught: A poor person, and a wealthy person, and a wicked person come to face judgment before the Heavenly court for their conduct in this world. The members of the court say: Why did you not engage in Torah?Reb Dov,
I am sorry that you feel that way.
I don’t think Rabbi Miller would approve of hating Frum Shomer Shabbos Yidden who voted for a democratic president.AAQ,
I agree with everything you wrote about looking at the data in different ways.
Economics is not my subject and I don’t like to use it in a political argument.Was it trump’s fault that he was president when covid started which affected all his economic numbers ? Of course not.
Is it welcome back carter after 100 days of Biden presidency ? Of course not.
TVAP,
The one that was thrown off of all her committees.Health,
Why are you defending anti semites that are republicans? I really want to know.
There are anti-semites in both parties.Health,
Republicans who throw out anyone who doesn’t believe in the “BIG LIE” are living in fantasy land.
SCOTUS found Obamacare constitutional despite the lies of the republican party.Lakewhut ,
The democrats are extremely popular and that is why Trump lost by millions.AAQ,
This whole discussion is not relevant except as a campaign speech. So I only discuss it as a counter argument.
Despite how much presidents like to brag about a successful economy under their watch, the nation’s economy is derived from many factors that do not involve presidential decisions — and are far beyond a president’s control.
Your numbers were all skewed in order to benefit the Trump re-election campaign. Hardly objective.
In fact , Trump used your numbers in a speech in Pittsburgh on October 23 2019.My source for stagnant wages is Forbes. (You think I made them up ? )
The economist David Salkever, writes worse.
“REAL pay data show Trump’s ‘blue collar boom’ is more of a bust for US workers, with wages plunging 3.88% in the period. And, again, the situation is worse when we add in fringe benefits, which brings the decline to 4.33%.”Lakewhut,
Participant asked a good question. This is a thread about the federal vs states government’s power regarding elections.
Federal GOP representatives are guilty of taking over states rights on Jan 6th.There will be at least 20 challenges brought to the SCOTUS if this bill ever becomes law exactly because elections are run by states. The Democratic writer of the bill has said that he has written the bill to stand up to SCOTUS challenges.
Seems people need a reminder of January 6th 2021.
A stunning 147 Republicans in Congress voted to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election based on lies about widespread voter fraud ― lies that, by lawmakers’ own admission, incited supporters of then-President Donald Trump to violently storm the U.S. Capitol in January. The ultimately unsuccessful effort sought to toss out electoral votes from Arizona and Pennsylvania, potentially disenfranchising millions of Americans.
During Trump’s 4 years there was inflation, real wages were stagnant and the federal budget deficit ballooned.
Biden is trying to fix the economic disaster that Trump left him with.
He is also trying to repair all the other disasters that Trump is solely to blame for – soured international relations with Allies, Covid deaths, human rights etc…Sen. Paul Boyer, a Republican who represents a suburb of Phoenix, told the publication that he initially supported and voted for the audit but that he regretted doing so after seeing how poorly it was being conducted.
“It makes us look like idiots,” Boyer said. “Looking back, I didn’t think it would be this ridiculous. It’s embarrassing to be a state senator at this point.”
TVAP,
It is quite simple.
I am saying that there shouldn’t be an audit to address the unfounded concerns of millions.
There definitely should not be a corrupt audit run by the GOP to address the unfounded concerns of millions.
The shoe is already on the other foot. The democrats are concerned that elections in republican run states that changed there laws after 2020 are disenfranchising millions of Americans and the results are invalid.Just because YOU and MILLIONS “HAVE CONCERNS” that the election was not legit does not allow YOU or the MILLIONS to hire a inexperienced , unknown republican run cyber ninja firm to do an audit.
THE RECOUNTS WERE DONE. THE LAWSUITS WERE DONE.The truth is you have been lied to incessantly by Trump, the GOP , and the Media.
TVAP,
The legitimate talking point is that your point ,” Going forward, for future elections, it’s crucial that everyone trusts the process….” is invalid.
You think it sounds logical and ethical but it is not.I have given you an example.
You have not responded because there is no response. You want things your way as long as you win.
The point is irrelevant, laughable and ludicrous.
Besides the point being stupid, in a video message commemorating the National Day of Prayer, Biden said: “By the grace of God and the extraordinary work of researches and scientists, we have vaccines that have proven to be safe and effective … Thank you for your prayers and may God Bless you and all those you love and are concerned about on this day and every day.”
FYI, G-D was mentioned in the declaration, just not the real One that we pray to. At the end, Biden writes that this proclamation was signed in “the year of our Lord two thousand twenty-one.”
Maybe we can now see the gadlus of Chazal when they left Hashem’s name out of the Megillah which was a Persian Public Document.
TVAP,
An example of what you are saying when the shoe is on the other foot.
Due to the new laws enacted by the republicans, democrats do not trust the process in the 43 states that the republican proposed at least 250 new election laws..
Therefore, if democrats lose – especially in republican states – like Florida and Georgia, the states must be ready to satisfy every accusation of stealing the elections.
The states should be ready for countless lawsuits and endless recounts.
A tiny unknown firm called ‘cyber sushi’ with no experience in auditing elections ,run by a democrat , will be hired to audit the process even after multiple recounts.
Democrats will hire crazy lawyers (who will be losing their law licenses and going to jail) go on national TV every day repeating claims that they heard. They are the Democrats “Strike Force” and they will be ready the night of the elections to announce that they are not conceding and the election was stolen.
The states should be ready for every crazy theory – from ballots shipped in from the far east to dead people voting.No politician will be considered duly elected or legitimate until all the lawsuits have been resolved!!!!
This will be the new normal.
We might even gather outside the state capitols.Just like you have been accommodated, we will demand to be accommodated.
America is anxiously awaiting.
N,
The reason I said that there is no need to hide from the truth of the jobs report is similar to your post, because the numbers are just numbers and can be interpreted.
Your reasoning for the numbers are possible.
Biden talked about the jobs report and the steps still needed to help Americans.
It is not being hidden.Lying about a lost election, storming the Capitol, and throwing anyone who disagrees under the bus (Cheney) is not a “big stink”. It is the current MO of the republican party.
The party that told us in 2016, ” Trump won , get over it”, can’t get over his loss.No need to hide the truth.
The truth does not reflect poorly on Biden.
Only republicans constantly lie about losing the election.
Participant,
Just accept whatever Health says as fact. It is not worth asking for real sources.
Shalom,
I tried to help you out since 4 out of the 5 posts are from you.
Do you enjoy debating yourself?Shalom,
Instead of calling people names , you might read what Naomi Chazan (professor (emerita) of political science at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, a former Member of the Knesset and Deputy Speaker of the Knesset) wrote.
She summarizes at the end of her piece, “The Human Rights Watch report has caused considerable discomfort in large segments of Israeli society and the Jewish world. But instead of viewing this document, with its compendium of violations increasingly conforming to legal definitions of apartheid, as an unmitigated threat to Israel’s very existence, Israelis who care about the country, its moral fabric, its guiding principles and its future viability might do well to view its publication as a warning signal that compels a much-needed reassessment of their normative foundations and their future course.”I paraphrase – the ultimate test of the current situation is, if the roles were reversed, would any Jewish Israeli be willing to live under such conditions ?
unity = make america great again. Meaningless fluff which means nothing if not less than that.
Welcome to the world of politicians and political campaigns.If a person finds it hard to feel the tragedy, they can listen to one of the hespeideim or divray zicharon.
Many of them are online.
It will be very easy to feel the pain during the hespeidim and divray zicharon.Syag,
I do not know exactly what Biden means by unity. I do not speak to him and have not been informed.
I can only guess like everyone else in the CR.
One thing is for sure and I have said this before in the CR.
Since January 6th, the republicans do not deserve to be treated with any respect. They deserve to be destroyed and treated as traitors.
All of the republican senators and congressmen who pushed for the insurrection belong in jail.
Until they repudiate Trump’s lies, they don’t deserve to be treated with unity.Whining about unity after an insurrection shows the lack of honesty of the republican party.
OP: Any of the CR Dems Want to Defend Kerry?
AAQ: Defends Kerry
Health: Stop defending Kerry!Me: Lakewhut Please layout the timeline of events from 2016 until today so that we all understand exactly what you are accusing Kerry of doing. He doesn’t need a defense until you specify what you are accusing him of.
I should start another Post but I will add it to the comment here.
Does anyone want to defend the treasonous traitor Republican Giuliani whose home was raided today by the Feds in a criminal probe ? He lied for 3 months straight about the election after lying for 3 years about Ukraine and Biden.
Or the treasonous traitor Republican Bill Barr who prevented the Feds from doing their job investigating Giuliani and even fired the US Attorney Berman ?
Does anyone see that the Republicans can be just as easily accused of treason and being traitors ?
The current Republicans are simply the rebirth of the confederacy – Proud Traitors.