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You’re welcome.
I wish I could be more helpful, but it’s been a while.
squeak-
1. squeak: I absolutely agree that Masters’ proposed solution would have been a terrible idea. That does not take away from the elegance with which he described the problem – a tremendous feat.
icot: IMO he explained his point of view more convincingly than those who attempted to rebut him did. Just to be clear, a quick read-thru of his testimony vs. the points of those who disagree and/or think he has an ax to grind by no means finalizes who is most correct in my mind.
2. squeak: I am not aware of what you mean by the “current run up” in the oil market. To the best of my knowledge, the last run up was the one that took us to $120. After that bubble burst, the price dropped like a rock to the 30-40 range, but that was partially rubber band effect (snap the other way) and partially the fact that it was 2008 and no one had any money to take advantage of the arbitrage opportunity. Since that point, the price has more or less settled in the mid $80 range, with a relatively low standard deviation.
3. squeak: You wish for $30-40 oil prices without artificial means. In other words, you are hoping to drive out 50% of the buyers from the market. That means that you don’t want China, India, and other oil “newcomers” to have access to oil. I think of that as a selfish wish. [If you will say that your wish is not to remove buyers but to double supply, I will say unequivocally that this is a pipe dream. Production cannot be increased by anywhere near the amount you’d need, and even if massive amounts of oil were discovered today it would take years to reach the market- by which time demand will likely have overtaken it.]
4. squeak: I agree with you that the right way to create a disincentive is to raise the price through taxes and not through paying the suppliers more. This is not what is happening – the high price is the result of market forces and not disincentive actions. I am merely pointing out the silver lining when I say that it drives us to other technologies. If I believed in tax disincentives I could move to a country that has them (UK, Israel, EU, etc).
5. squeak: Your prediction of future gold prices is something I need to think more about. I think pretty much everyone agrees that there is a bubble in the gold market, but the question is how big is the bubble. You seem to think that 100% of the gains result from the bubble, while I think that the bubble is but one factor coming on the shoulder of price gains due to valid economic factors. It’s hard to deny that investors have permanently changed their thinking when it comes to currency and sovereign debt. It is also hard to deny the effect of inflation on a commodity that is not inflatable. My most liberal guess is that 50% of the gains in gold are from hype and fear – but if you put a microphone in my face I’d say my best estimate is 25-35%. But you could be right, as time will tell.
6. squeak: I don’t have any blame theories for the recessions. When I say that I blame stagflation on our work ethic, I mean something entirely different. In less comfortable times, people who had less did with less and dug their heels in. Many people, forced by poverty or other hardship, did things that no comfortable person would. Countless small businesses were created that way. It’s like playing the dice game craps- you might win or lose on the first roll, but if you roll the point you keep on rolling until you get something.
Now we live all in comfort- there are programs to fall back on in hard times, staples are cheap and easy to get, communication and transportation is taken for granted. We have giant efficient companies that make innovation and competition difficult and unnecessary. As a result, in bad times we are playing musical chairs – once you’re out you are eliminated from the game. You won’t find any laid off Vice Presidents looking for “unsuitable” replacement work because they don’t have to. The result is less competition in business, a tougher labor market, and more concentration of capital (rich get richer and everyone else gets poorer).
Thanks for taking the time to read and respond.
The financial world is something I know relatively little about, and I appreciate the chance to speak with someone who is more familiar with it.
Bus: A B C
Driver: Chaim Noach Zundel
Route: 60th St. 50th St. 39th St.
Place: 3rd 2nd 1st.
A Nugget of Wisdom – Answer
44 = 6+6+6+6+20
45 = 9+9+9+9+9
46 = 6+20+20
47 = 9+9+9+20
48 = 6+6+9+9+9+9
49 = 9+20+20
Once we managed six consecutive numbers, any higher number can be achieved simply by adding a multiple of six to the above numbers.
golden mom–
LeiderLeider…–
The fan-fold plastic accordion one is the design I like best.
Boruch dayan emes.
May his memory be a nechama.
am yisrael chai-
Happy anniversary
You now can leave the nursery
If you’re a CR social climber
You’ll end up like me – an old timer
? ? ?
squeak-
Thank you for the encouragement and the kind words. I stand by my earlier assessment of our knowledge levels, but that hasn’t stopped me before and won’t stop me now ?
squeak: do you think oil prices are a bubble too?
squeak:I disagree. If you look back at 2007-2008 you will see what was possibly the greatest amount of speculation in any market ever. Michael Master’s testimony convinced – if not proved – to members of Congress that the $120/bb price tag was the result of speculation. The sheer number of uncovered contracts at the time made obvious the scale of the speculators’ influence in the market. As a result, they sought to enact reforms that prevented speculation. Gold has seen nothing quite like it.
squeak: I don’t wish. Cheap oil is not healthy and it’s not sustainable. If we artificially kept the price down somehow, what do you think would happen when (stagnant) supplies didn’t meet (growing) demand? You’d have China, India, and the US fighting for their share. The higher price encourages us to seek better (oil free) technology and limits the demand from poorer countries.
squeak: What you are describing would be the result of a very painful deflationary period.
squeak: The point is that people are not willing to shift their holdings. It’s financial suicide to park your money in any vehicle right now, as it’s been since 2000. Meanwhile the government has been printing money to pay for various stimulus programs. That causes inflation, which drives people with savings to park their money somewhere inflation proof- i.e. gold, because it’s supply doesn’t change. The logic being that even though I’m not going to gain anything, at least I don’t lose. The value of gold hasn’t gone up so much as the value of the dollar it is priced in has shrunk around it. The only way for the value of gold to come down now is if dollars start disappearing and the value of the dollar goes up – i.e. deflation. A permanent change to the money supply means a permanent change to the price at which gold will find support.
Stagflation is a sad commentary on the work ethic of our society. If our people were willing to work the way our ancestors who built the country did, such a state would not be possible. But that’s a whole other discussion.
am yisrael chai-
I can’t say it any better than “Climbing mountains” did.
Can you call your relatives and talk? We speak to our relatives in E”Y using Cucumber and it isn’t too expensive.
If that isn’t possible, can you go out with friends and just talk?
Since it’s erev Rosh Hashana, now’s a time that it isn’t unusual to call old friends you haven’t spoken to in a while – speaking to friends and relatives and catching up with them is a pretty good medicine for being lonely and alone with unhappy thoughts.
I hope things get better for you – have a k’siva va’chasima tova and a gut gebentched yor.
real-brisker-
What makes you think that golds value will decline in 3 years?
I think it will decline in significantly less than three years. In three years I think it will be about half of what it is now.
I think and hope the economy will pick up and/or people will look for money-making investments and opportunities rather than just a safe shelter in tough times.
Gold has been around for a long time, and it has never shot up in value and stayed up permanently – it’s always fallen back down. While a great deal of money can be made by correctly predicting a rise in gold’s price, historically it’s been one of the worst long-term investments you can make.
squeak-
do you think oil prices are a bubble too?
What you are describing would be the result of a very painful deflationary period.
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I feel a bit like a student disagreeing with the teacher and giving his reasons, knowing all the while that the teacher is aware of the arguments the student will bring, has already considered and discarded them, and will now explain why they are invalid.
Nonetheless, the above are my thoughts on this topic.
It is one of the most difficult things to do.
http://www.theyeshivaworld.com/coffeeroom/topic/asking-mechila
This may have no basis in reality, but here is a hope that I have:
real-brisker–
To repeat my initial disclaimer, I am most definitely NOT someone who should be relied upon for financial advice.
That said, my best guess is:
-in the short term (the next six months to a year) the price will bounce around between $1,400 and $2,050 an ounce.
-in the long term (3+ years) gold will retreat to $750 – $900 an ounce.
am yisrael chai–
Here are a few notes for your cut-n-paste convenience:
?? ??
600 Kilo Bear–
Hello!
I hope you are doing well, far from our shores IIRC.
Have a kesiva vachasima tova and a gut gebentched yor.
Ctrl Alt Del–
Good for you. Honest mechila when you’ve been seriously wronged is one of the toughest things to do.
am yisrael chai–
Thank you for the kind words. I’m selfishly glad you stuck around – I enjoy your posts, and so do many other people.
Feif Un–
That’s a real tough one. An avla against one’s kids is much worse for any parent to forgive than one directed at youself. I hope one day this is peacefully resolved.
HaLeiVi–
Thank you for the kind words ?
I actually read thru my posts for on this topic for the last three or four years, and they are remarkably similar – anti-plagiarism software would no doubt flag them.
I’m not terribly original, I’m afraid.
real-brisker-
That’s really something.
I hope people in the eyeglass business (who need to stock gold and silver frames), jewelers, and other professions that require an at-hand supply of gold and silver aren’t being hurt by these wild price swings.
charlie brown-
Thank you.
Your subtitle may no longer say so, but you’re still the official ego-booster of the CR ?
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I would like to add something along the lines of Rashi’s pshat on the chumash in Vayeshev where it says that Yosef’s brothers were unable to speak to him peacefully.
Rashi explains that from this negative statement about them, you learn a positive – namely that they were honest about how they felt and didn’t act in a two-faced manner.
Even in instances where discussions here become heated and unfortunate remarks are made, in the overwhelming majority of cases cooler heads eventually prevail, apologies are made and things are patched up.
This is something that is quite uncommon in the online blogging/posting world, and one of the main reasons I personally enjoy this site.
Eight days ago (September 18, 2011) when this thread started, gold was $1,828 an ounce.
Today (September 26, 2011), gold is $1,591 an ounce.
Had you invested $200 that day, your investment would now be worth $174.07, a net loss of about 13%.
This thread is worth a pre-Rosh Hashana bump.
apushatayid-
Agreed, 100%
I ask mechila from anybody who I have offended, insulted, angered or hurt.
This includes whether I have addressed you directly, referenced a group you belong to, an opinion or custom you have, or a statement you made.
I also ask for mechila from anyone who I was disrespectful to, whether it was by not responding to them, not responding respectfully or appropriately, or chepering in a way that wasn’t appreciated.
There is no one here who needs to ask me for mechila for anything.
Wishing everyone here, and all bnei Yisroel, a ksiva vachasima tova and a gut gebentched yur.
Wishing everyone here a Gut Shabbos for the last time in ???”?
May we all be zoche to a ???”? filled with simach, mazal, health, parnasa, nachas and shalom.
MiddlePath-
Since it’s too late for me to edit a previous post (==>HERE<==) listing you as a favorite, I’m afraid you’ll just have to stick around.
(Plus, I agree with the nice stuff the other posters are saying.)
Oh, and congrats to “am yisrael chai” for getting the correct word in “Fix the Prefix”.
zahavasdad-
You’re thinking of Abe Zelmanowitz, A”H, HY”D.
A Nugget of Wisdom
(also from a puzzle magazine)
“Delightfully Kosher”, a restaurant, sells three different serving sizes of chicken nuggets; 6 pieces, 9 pieces or 20 pieces.
If you want 12 pieces, you can simply order two six-piece servings.
If you want 13 pieces, you are unable to buy exactly what you want.
What is the largest number of pieces that you are unable to order exactly, based on the serving sizes available?
(from a puzzle magazine)
Noach , Chaim and Zundel are drivers for the transit authority.
Each drives a separate route in Brooklyn; one on 60th St., one on 50th and one on 39th.
They started their routes at the same time, from First Avenue towards the higher numbered avenues.
1) The 60th St. bus reached Sixth Avenue last.
2) The B bus, driven by Noach, was crowded.
4) The B bus went up 50th St.
5) The bus going up 39th St. arrived at Sixth Avenue before the others.
6) Who drove each bus, what route did each drive, and in which order did they reach Sixth Avenue?
You should probably check into a home equity loan / line of credit and compare the initial costs, tax ramafications, and terms of repayment vs. a refinance to see which best suits your needs.
Tizku lemitzvos.
bombmaniac-
I recommend that you go to site usagold.com, and check out real-time gold prices, historical gold prices, and recent price trends.
Here are my main issues with your plan:
1) Be aware of the risks involved, including volatility. Over the last four weeks, gold has fluctuated from $1,700 to more than $1,900 an ounce.
2) Look at historical performance of gold and other precious metals.
Historically, diverse indexed funds have performed well.
Whichever way you decide to go, hatzlocha raba.
You can go to hebcal.com and print your own calendar for the year.
It is customizable by your zip code, which zman you hold, which details you want to see, Hebrew/ English, Ashkenaz/Sefard and other options.
First, the disclaimer:
Next, the opinion:
Gold has more than quintupled in price over the last ten years, more than doubled over the last two years, and that kind of advancement is, IMO, unsustainable. At some point, people will start putting their money back into securities and other areas that are deemed too risky nowadays, and gold prices will drop dramatically.
Refua shelaima to Yehudah Tzvi ben Elisheva.
I will b’n have your name in mind for a refuah when learning the mishnayos pledged for the shloshim of Reuven Dovid ben Yehuda, a’h
Why, Carl Langersleeves, the frum wedding gown designer ?
OK, really – “ican” made me think of Carl Icahn, the financier.
Corny, no? (corny yes!!)
(glad you got a smile, “photogenic”)
HIE-
Try “am yisrael chai”‘s suggestion, Obamacare’s pros and cons, the 2009 World Series (if your teacher has a sense of humor), the Libyan revolution, the Egyptian revolution, Perry vs. Romney – there are many good topics in current events that don’t require more than an hour or two or research to create a good HS-level presentation.
You’re quite welcome.
Call me “Carl” for short ?
Please see these threads on this site for suggestions:
There may be other threads on this site that can help. go to Google and type “Gown Gemach site:http://www.theyeshivaworld.com/coffeeroom” varbatim but without the quotes.
Also try “gown gemach new york”, “gown gemach brooklyn”, etc.
Good luck, and Mazel tov.
zahavasdad–
I omitted a couple of things in my original post.
First of all, your last sentence – “but they still seem to make more demands” – I don’t think a guest is entitled to demand anything. At most, a request can be made, and it should be a reasonable one.
Second of all, Mazel tov/congratulations! May you continue to have occasion to make simchos.
real-brisker–
Thank you, too.
adorable-
It’s very nice of you to want to help.
IDK the answer to your question.
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Lots of mesechtos are still available.
Moderator-80-
kapusta-
Thank you. ? <– blushing
I may print your comments – my kids could use a laugh ?
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zahavasdad-
They have a restricted diet, just like people who need low salt or are allergic to nuts or any other food.
“A fool and his money are soon elected.”
“Don’t cut my throat, I may want to do that later myself.”
– Casey Stengel
“Age is a case of mind over matter. If you don’t mind, it don’t matter.”
– Satchel Paige
“I believe in rules. Sure I do. If there weren’t any rules, how could you break them?”
– Leo Durocher
mommamia22-
One thing that makes any parent feel sad and powerless is hearing their child say that they have no friends.
I agree with the other posters who suggested that you invite the other child over to your house to play with your son.
Perhaps adding an excursion to the pizza store, or making homemade pizza, can serve as a further enticement for a play date.
Also, do you have any nieces or nephews he can play with?
Hatzlocha raba.
Tums-
It absolutely is.
They aren’t exclusive.