hello99

mox: I qoute you “The number relevant to us is not the population growth rate but the growth in the birth rate. this number is calculated by taking births from one year subtracting the previous years births and dividing by the previous years births”

Please make up your mind!!!

az: “Are you suggesting that the average family size in the “yeshiva” world are smaller now than they were 20 30 years ago”

Certainly. Yungerleit in their 20s and 30s are having LESS children then their parents did.

az and mox: as mox so capably pointed out the issue is not the birth rate itself but the INCREASE in the birth rate. Sure classes are growing because we have a relatively high birth rate compared to the Western world, but anyone who is part of the Yeshiva World is aware that the current generation of young couples is much different that 20 years ago. In the 70’s and 80’s birth control was virtually unknown in the Yeshiva world, today “spacing” children is routinely accepted in many circles and by many Rabbonim. I have heard many Kollel couples remark that they have 5 children “and my Rav says that is enough” (in my opinion a crude and un-tzniusdik comment), something unheard of 20 years ago. I look at dozens of my contemporaries in their 30’s and 40’s and 5-6 children is the average, a big drop over last generation.

In short, I think anyone with open eyes can see that the birth rate, while high, is shrinking NOT growing.

az and mox: Do a gather from your thundering silence that you have come to acknowledge the fallacy of the “age gap”???

lomed: as AZ often says, we have to know the SOURCE of the problem to fix it.

mox:”Do you really think that the growth rate in the community is only 2%”

Do you really think that the growth rate for Orthodox Jews is 3.5%??? According to UN statistics only 4 counrties in the world have such a high growth rate: Liberia, Burundi, Afghanistan and Western Sahara.

Even if we would have 3.5% growth *3 year gap -5% more boys born then girls only accounts for 5.5% girls w/o shiduchim and does not justify AZ’s claim of 13%.

az: “First the community needs to be educated as to what the problem is (age gap created by our present system) Then we can focus on solutions”

Great!!! let’s review some posts from a previous thread of yours to determine if the “age gap” is TRULY the problem.

the Avi Chai survey shows 12% growth over 5 years in Orthodox dayschools. This translates to only about 2% a year not 3-4%. if you count all Orthodox schools or 1% if you count Yeshiva and half of centrist. Even 2% * 3year age difference equals 6%, minus 5% more boys born leaves us only 1% more girls then boys. Not even taking into account the dropout gap. Clearly the “age gap” is NOT a significant factor in the shidduch crisis.

if you assume that half of the 10% decline in “centrist orthodox” was students who became more “yeshiveshe” and transferred to “yeshiva” schools you are left with only 9% growth. Divided by 5 years averages 1.8% growth.

Of course 7% among MO is a problem, but the fact that it exists disproves your theory. With a smaller growth rate and the same 5% more males born they have also closed the age gap to the 1.5% as you recommend. Based on your theory we should be seeing a surplus of MO boys, but instead they also have more single girls then boys. Tiyuvta!!!

MO have a growth rate of 1.3% per year. Their age gap is 1-2 years, for arguments sake say 2%. That gives a total of 2.6% “gap” which does not even overcome the 5% birth gap and should result in 2.4% BOYS unmarried. The facts on the ground contradict this!!!

after seeing the Avi Chai survey inside it is clear that the “age gap” can not account for more then 1% unmarried, which is insignificant

az: “How’s this for a long term idea, take out a year of either high school (12th grade) or elementary (8th grade) for the boys.”

Terrible idea. The boys are already too young.