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APY: You are correct. The difference is in the attitude towards dating, not the numbers
DY: How reliable is Wikipedia? What do they base these numbers on?
AZ: “Now for the core issues and the suggestions you deem so “harmful”
1 as I have repeatedly said, I’m all in favor of removing artificial barriers to shidduchim. When my advice is consulted I always have, and will, suggest that if the shidduch seems compatible it should be pursued, whether the boy is 8 years older or 4 younger. I don’t think the relative ages should be an issue either direction.
2 shaddchanim should give equal attention to all, and certainly not boycott anyone just because they are straight out of seminary.
3 6 months earlier than what??? If they are not ready, wait. If they are ready, they are anyways dating. Do you really think after all these years boys don’t take the freezer into account when deciding when to go to lkwd???
“many many of the boys should not go to EY at all”
On this I agree with you. In my Philly days, Rav Elya discouraged most boys from going to EY. They stayed in Philly until 22 or 23 and then went to Lkwd. They didn’t date younger, they stayed in Philly 5 years of Beis Medrash. Find that today!
However, someone who truly stands to gain from EY should stay longer. The current 1 year pre-lakewood visit is not enough time for substantial gain
AZ: “i’ll simply promote the projects being run under the guidance of recognized R”Y. Perhaps you and others may challenge whether the projects are under said guidance”
I will.
“Many many rabbonim where and continue to be consulted with”
Did any agree, or they all refused to sign. The ones I know are all vehemently opposed to your ideas.
Lomed Mkol Adam: “Hello99, Google “Chareidim/ Chareidi Growth Rate and you’ll find many links for statistics on Chareidi population growth rate in Israel, which all put the annual growth rate there well over 4%”
Just tried that and found NO scientific studies at all on the subject.
Also, here in EY my oldest son has three classmates who come from families of 18 children (ok two are brothers) and my second son has two classmates with 15 siblings (unrelated). How many in the USA can say that?
AZ: “So long as hello99 doesn’t concur and this point i think further debate is fruitless”
I disagree. Even if you are correct and I am wrong regarding the significance of the “age gap” to creating older singles. I still think that the cure you propose is more dangerous than the disease it purports to cure.
BTW, why were only Roshei Yeshivos consulted and not community Rabbonim. The Rabbonim are the ones in the trenches dealing with girls and their families, as well as boys long out of yeshiva, on a daily basis. I have spoken to numerous Rabbonim, and all feel that there are enough single boys for the girls, and that the “age gap” is not a significant factor.
Laker: “hello99 – what is your personal goal? AZ seems to want to help more people get married. What is your goal? Prevent bad marriages?”
My goal is to see more people married, and in stable marriages. I think that the shidduch crisis is a multi-faceted problem that can only be solved with a multi-pronged solution. Harping on one minor factor to the exclusion of all the other major and minor factors will NOT get more people married, and likely will lead to less staying married.
I want to move on to discuss all the various factors and their potential solutions, and not be held back to exclusively debate ages
AZ: I think that numbers MAY be one of many factors involved. Certainly not the only factor and not even a major one.
DY: “I pointed out and you ignored, the Avichai study showed 2% decades ago, with growth in the growth rate”
I noticed your point, but unless you can bring authoritative proof that the numbers have changed, using any numbers other than those in the Avi Chai study is pure speculation.
“In an article on the subject, Yonason Rosenblum assumes 4% as well”
With all due respect to an excellent journalist, he is making an “assumption” as you pointed out. I see no source for this assumption.
“On point 3, you would sacrifice the many girls who don’t have commitment issues etc. for those who do”
I’m not sacrificing anybody, I pointing out that the age gap is not the hurdle to the vast majority of older singles.
“On points 4 and 5, we seem to agree that it’s a bigger issue than either of us can decide (I’m not sure why you concede this on point 4 but not on point 5)”
Anything that will lead to net LESS people married doesn’t need Daas Torah to reject it, common sense is sufficient.
“70 non-anonymous R”Y agree to the idea of closing the age gap. Since you’re against both boys marrying when younger and girls marrying when older, your definitely not on the same page as them”
No. We already determined that these 70 R”Ys said nothing of the sort. They only encouraged boys to “consider” close in age matches. No chiddush there, any Rav etc in his right mind long before NASI would advise a boy not to reject a potential Shidduch just because she is “only” one year younger.
“On point 6, I’m glad you’re not in total disagreement, but I don’t understand why you refer to a smaller window of marriageability”
Lets say a girl is considered “old” and undesirable at 23. Now that leaves her 4 years to find her bashert before she drops to the bottom of everyone’s lists. If girls follow NASI’s directive to wait a year or two before dating, she will only have 2 or 3 years left.
AZ: “As I’ve mentioned numerous times. It seems that the elephant in the room is the answer to the follwing question: Are the numbers of girls who have dated 5/10 years and are still single, relatively equal to the numbers of boys who have dated 5/10 years.
Yes or No”
I think I made it very clear that for your program to be worthwhile, there are 5 other factors that require resolution.
BTW, Moshe Pogrow’s wife is Tamar. Neither an “A” nor a “Z”
DY:
1) according to many older single girls and experienced shadchanim, NOT TRUE
2) based on the Avi Chai study which shows 2% growth, and no one has found any scientific study that contradicts this, NOT TRUE
3) very relevant. If one has commitment issues, etc; all the narrowing of the age gap in the world can’t help them. Also, as long as boys want a size 2, how will heavier girls get married to younger boys.
4) Being that girls mature faster than boys, narrowing the age gap will cause problems with #4 & 5. If the Gedolim would say otherwise, fine. But some anonymous R”Y is not the shikul hadaas of “The Gedolim”
5) definitely NOT TRUE.
6) possibly true. However, hashkafa will change the longer out of seminary and also lose childbearing years and narrow window of marriageability.
The bottom line is that NASI would be a bad idea if any one of these 6 conditions were not true; and the reality is that probably none of them are!!!
In summary: I think it is clear that to embrace the NASI plan to “encourage” boys to date earlier and girls later is dependent on the following 6 conditions:
1) there are more older single girls than boys
2) this supposed discrepancy is attributable to boys marrying girls on average 3 years their junior
3) there are no other significant reasons preventing these older singles from marrying
4) the age differential is unnatural and not based on different rates of maturity or other justifiable considerations
5) there will be no or minimal negative effect in boys marrying younger
6) there will be no or minimal negative effect in girls marrying older
Unfortunately, none of these conditions have been proven true, and most if not all have been proven false.
It doesn’t take much detective work to discover that the founder and director of NASI is a 36 year old Queens resident named Rabbi Moshe Pogrow whose home address is identical to the mailing address for the checks.
He wrote an article on Matzav about two years ago using the mashal of an “island” to explain his “age gap theory”.
A hint to the wise is sufficient.
IUB: Great! But what do you want to help with, matching people or birthdays???
AZ: can you please reconcile your statement “I wholeheartidly agree with your statement “I see a healthy sense of individualism” with “I said the present reality is NOT in the best interest of the boys individuality”
As I explained previously, the reality of Lakewood requires rounding off to the nearest half-year. However, now boys go to LKWD at whatever age they are ready; some at 21 and some at 24. You would have everyone “encouraged” (not forced) to enter dating before they feel ready.
AZ: you said “I wholeheartidly agree with your statement “I see a healthy sense of individualism” and you also said “I am NOT comfortable with the unchanged reality.”
So you mean to say you agree the current situation is one where each individual does what is best for his level of maturity, and you strenuously oppose that??? Do you think young men should date when they are not ready for marriage???
AZ: The bottom line is that it seems our main disagreement is very limited. We both agree that 21 and 22 year old boys who are ready should be free to go out, and presumably you agree that a 22 or 23 year old who is not ready should be allowed to wait. The difference is that according to you this would be a radical departure from the current procedure and according to me is the unchanged reality.
Or if you prefer: you see an ominous Orwellian Big Brother forcing hundreds of 22 year old bochurim who are dieing to begin shidduchim to wait for some ominous “collusion” that threatens anyone foolish enough to date before his 23rd birthday. I see a healthy sense of individualism where each person does approximately what he estimates to be appropriate to the level of his maturity.
AZ: “Unfortanetly for you the people advising in the situaton feel that if boys wold beging dating closer to 22 than 23 there would be no harm done to the marriages”
“The R”Y advising this course of action are more than ready to “take responsibility” for your concerns”
Why am I not reassured that some anonymous R”Ys “feel” there is no harm and “take responsibility”
depends what you call “center”. Mishpacha is certainly left of Yated, Hamodia and Binah; but Ami is even further left
AZ: I assume you are joking. Did you really think I meant the selfsame day a boy decides he is ready he goes out on his first date. Obviously, the first Cheshvan or Iyar after he feels ready he enrols in BMG. This is the way it should be; those who are ready at 21 enter Lkwd then and start dating a couple of months later, those who aren’t ready until 24 enrol then. If they would listen to you and being dating before they are ready, the tragic results will be your responsibility.
The R”Ys signed to encourage boys to consider close in age shidduchim. I have no issue with not ruling out a shidduch just because the girl is “only” one year younger. But pressuring boys to date before they are ready will certainly exacerbate the already tragic divorce scene.
AZ: Now, boys begin dating whenever they and their parents and Roshei Yeshiva feel they are ready. If you pressure/encourage them to start earlier, you create a situation where the boys are dating, and possibly getting married, when they are NOT ready!!!
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize that this will cause MUCH bigger problems than you hope to solve.
touching is worse. It is deoraisa of lo sikrvu l’galos erva and also yehreig v’al yaavor because of abizrahu d’arayos.
lomed: can you quote any scientific studies to support your assertion that the Avi Chai survey, that you apparently haven’t even bothered to read, is dead wrong?
I’ve spoken to many Rabbonim and mental health professionals who deal with shalom bayis issues. All of them agreed that immaturity is a major factor in the divorce rate and that boys should NOT be encouraged/pressured to date younger.
I know probably ten times as many people divorced in their 20’s as single in their 30’s. That’s probably the main reason I think AZ is dangerous.
Lomed: read the Avi Chai study. The 2% I quoted is only Chareidi!!!
AZ: The Binah article quoted numerous older girls and senior shadchannim who agree with my assessment that there is not a significant lack of older boys. My personal experience as well is that I know nearly as many single boys in their 30s and early 40s as my wife knows girls. The girls are panicked and the boys overly complacent.
Even if there is a slight discrepancy, your solutions are worse than the problem.
DY: he seems to ignore the discrepancy between the numbers of boys and girls born each year. I think my calculation of 2%*3yrs-5%=1% is more accurate.
Rav Chaim Palagi
AZ: “Are shadchanim refusing to redd shidduchim to 18/19 year olds?”
No, because they don’t listen to you?
Remember, I quoted previously an article in Binah magazine where numerous older single girls and prominent shadchanim claimed there is no lack of older boys.
Divorce statistics are high enough w/o your help. Simple logic dictates that they are connected: Shalom Bayis issues cause divorce, immaturity causes SB problems, younger is less mature.
“I think enabling boys to get married at the time when they – along with their parents and rebbeim – think they are ready to do so is probably a good thing”
Great, so now we agree. Continue allowing boys to begin shidduchim when they are ready instead of pressuring them to start early to “help” the girls.
lomed: I don’t know where you get your “known facts” from, but the Avi Chai study is the only scientific research I know of on the subject, and it is what AZ claims to be basing his numbers on.
ofcourse: it will harm the entire family structure. Boys will be getting married even less mature than now, which is already creating a divorce crisis. Also, girls will lose a significant potion of their very narrow window to find a spouse and have children.
Addditionally, if they attend college/work for a number of years post-seminary, they will likely be looking for a very different type of boy. Some might consider this an advantage, but it is certainly a amjor shift that must be taken into account.
DY: if everyone listens to MP/AZ and refuses to rett shiduchim to 18/19yr old girls, they won’t get married.
DY: the simple answer is that there are roughly the sme number of older single boys as girls, but the girls go to professional shadchanim and the boys do not. Therefore, the shadchanim think that there are more single girls. Also, the OTD ratio is a factor.
re: age gap statistics- it was demonstrated on other threads that the Avi Chai study AZ quotes reports only 2% growth. Multiplied by a 3 year differential gives 6% more 22yr old boys than 19 yr old girls. However, when you factor in the 5% more girls born, the age gap only acccounts for 1% unmarried!!! Also note that MO who marry similar age and have less children have the same problem, another nail in the “age gap” theory.
ofcourse: I agree that rigidity is a factor.
I think that many of the issues can be fixed. Each individual and each problem needs its own solution. I’m sorry to burst AZ’s bubble, but here is no one cure-all simplistic solution to solve the shidduch crisis.
For some singles mentoring would help, for other problems destigmatizing certain flaws. Some need counseling others need to focus on internal traits and compatibility rather than superficial prestige.
I think a multi-pronged approach can help many people, but there will always be, and always have been, some boys and girls who will never marry.
Narrowing the age gap will help few and harm many.
I said it “may” be a factor. But even if it is, the negative effects of both marrying off less mature boys and forcing girls to wait before dating will by far offset any minor benefit.
focusing on superficial traits, money, problematic personalities, lack of experience and guidance, shadchanim, unmarriagables, ease of being good girl over boy etc are some of the other factors, and others have mentioned them previously without your rudeness. i can’t be bothered to explain each one in great depth, use your own imagination.
If the sitution was so simple as to have a single, straightforward cause and solution, it would have been implemented long ago. The truth is that it is a combination of numerous factors. The “age gap” may be one of the smaller factors involved.
pba: I wouldn’t suggest driving with a broken arm
I think last year we thoroughly debunked the age gap as a primary cause for any shidduch crisis. AZ and mox tried valiantly to change the numbers and parameters repeatedly, but to no avail. If 10% of older girls are unmarried, maximum 1/5 of those can be attributed to the “age gap”. dig up those old posts if you wish
I find it very annoying that we can be in the middle of a very civil Halachic discussion and the Mods will arbitrarily delete posts and close the thread. For example, this happened regarding purchasing cut fruit.
There is even a Rebbe of the sea, the Yaama Ruv.
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These treifos are due to natural aging and have no connection to any operations. They are equally prevalent in CY and CS.
Almost 5 years ago Rav Shachter told me that he personally found over 90% treifos in milk cows. This is not so surprising, since calves slaughtered for meat typically have close to 40% treifos and are much younger. He was VERY elusive about a conclusion to forbid milk. When I inquired from his son, he noted that his father switched to soy milk, but he did not know why.
no problem. where should I send it?
The Arizal said that in his days 500 years ago there were already no new souls.
when “hearts of gold” came out as a book. it had a different ending than the serial