Pac: The people who need to know, do know who the R”Y advising the project are, and the R”Y advising the project feel that the desired goals are NOT best served when this info is publicized in forums such as YWN CR.

If that doesn’t do it for you, i can’t help.Feel free to contact them directly. Just remeber about two years ago in this forum doubt was raised re: their claim that a letter would be signed by tens of R”Y regarding Age Gap being the primary cause of the crisis etc. and the doubters didn’t believe it, but lo and behold it was true.

anon1m0us: Regarding the 400 boys: you could suggest what you wrote, except that you’d be wrong because not a single one of those boys graduated college that winter/that summer, they weren’t even enrolled in a college……..

anon1m0us: If hashem wants a peson to die at 34 can you do anything to change that??? So why have a organization like Hatzlah??? Eiether Hashem wants them to do or he wants them to live. Why shold we butt in????

In a similar vein, do you believe that hashem wants 10% of this years graduating class of High School girls to never get married. Without working to close the age gap that is where we are headed, much like without hatzalah many people would die and w/o RCCS many sick patients would Rachaman litzlan not recover and the list goes on and on. Bitachon and Emunah are critical, but not in place of taking reasobable steps to assist others in difficulty situatons.

Pac: why don’t you be that someone.

FYI- NASI has been there and done that (with a similar survey) and that was a major breakthough in getting community leaders to realize the seriouslness of the situation.

Pac: feel free to get involved.

Pac: if it was realistic to think that regular 22 year old litvishe girls would marry satmar and chasidishe boys it might work. However, it’s not likely that this will happen anytime soon. If you think you can make it happen by all meant go for it!

The key to alleviating the present situation and solving it going forward is implementing solutions that impact the first five years of when the boys and girls date.

DY: the average incoming age to the largest post EY yeshiva in North America is almost 23 years old. The boys in that yeshiva do NOT on average get married at 22. If they did this problem wouldn’t be what it is today.

That’s what i’m after. IF insted of guys getting married at 23+ they got married at 22.5 it would do wonders for the shidduch crisis and I don’t even think hello99 can argue nor show any datat that the difference between 22.5 and 23.25 is at the root of major shalom bayis issues.

If anything, i’d posit that girls getting married at 18/19 vs. 20/21 are at a higher risk for SB issues. However I have no studies on this, so it’s not a point i’ve made nor promoted, but it’s certainly something worth contemplating.

Pac: I see you totally ignored my response to your questoin regarding if we can save the “next generation”.

Pac: 100% totally solvable. And it’s solvable for the grade that just returned from seminary not just for the “next generation”.

In addition the sooner it is solved the greater trickle up effect there will be that will alleviatge the difficulties facing the girls who have already been dating for a bunch of years.

from a numerical standpoint: to even our the numbers of all the new daters for the year 2011, (i.e. all girls and boys who planeed to start dating in 2011) all we would need to do is to close the age gap by a bit more than one month on average. If we close it by more than that we will alleviate the backlog that already exists. (i will not get into a mathematical discussion on the topic, but those are the numbers to solve this year and each years aprox 10% discrepency)

of course the public can NOT be micro maninpulated to create a result of on average one month closer in age shidduchim in the year 2011 vs. the year 2012, but as a measure of what needs to be accomplisehd we need to continuously close the average age gap by one month year after year until on average the age gap is about one year.

The critical point here is AVERAGE AGE GAP. This doesn’t mean that there will be no marriages of boys significantly onlder than the girl. Of course there always will be such shidduchim. But if we are succesful that more and more close in age shidduchim take place so that the average age continuouisly movers closer and closer, we will win the battle and save the girls.

It is doable and it is happening already and hopefully it will continue.

Pac: if you want to reinstitue polygamy to help the girls who are already older (whatever age that is lets) then see if klal yisroel and their leaders will accept it.

Pac: By all means get to work. No one is stopping you. (if your quetion is why isn’t the NASI Project isn’t doing so, the answer is that the people advising them don’t think that is the proper action to take).

You are a free man go for it.

As i stated before it seems like this discussion circles around whether there the numbers of boys and girls who have dated 10 years and are still single are roughly equal or whetehr they are way out of wack with far more girls being single.

Re specific solutions such as breaking the stigma that prevented boys from marrying girls their own age, boys marrying slighlty younger, getting attention for girls who didn’t just start marrying (which will ineveitably result in fewer girls getting married right away); all feedback, input, insight is valuable.

Ultimately the course of action that has and continues to be taken, is upon careful consideration with well recognized R”Y. For the record, althought every tactic has been planned discussed an implemented only upond serious discussion with leading R”Y, don’t anyone think that there are 70 R”Y with whom every move is planned. That simply lisn’t the case as its simply not feasible to do so. What the 70 R”Y agreed to was what they signed on to.

Pac: except that you are incorrect. Please do NOT put words (posts) in mouth. Their are far more critical factors (and thus effective methods) than focusing on the freezer rule that you are referenceing. Would changing that help as well? Perhaps by a few months. (though there is a thought that it might not.) Either way that’s unlikely to be accomplished any time soon and that’s not what i’m referencing. If fact if criticism was to be leveled they would be the last since it isn’t they who determine at what age the boys come to their yeshiva……….

Here’s a question to ponder…. IF boys returned from EY on average earlier than they do now and began dating not a day later nor a day earlier then they where ready. What do you think would result. Would the average age at which they begin dating go up or go down……

hello: 99 please indicate what I have done to date or encouraged to “pressure” boys to date before they are ready????

May I ask what has anyone done to – in your words – pressure boys to get married younger. I am not familiar with any such action.

On a theoretical level would it be accomplished to enable boys to get married when they, their parents their rebbeim, think they should and not be held back by artificial obstables (for the record i am NOT reffering to any specific yeshiva policy). would THAT be bad for shalom bayis?

You seem to disagree and think that would cause a spike in the divorce rate – and you say that is obvious.

Please explain or prove that.

I would think that getting married when one is ready for marriage (as determined by themselves with input from those who know him best) is probably good for shalom bayis.

do you disagree?

(regardng your reluctance to do a study on the divorce situation; truth be told it shouldn’t be to expensive. Start by speaking to 30 proffsionals in the field and ask them to compile data, specifically the age at which the young couples coming to them got married. This should be a good start as to whether the issue needs to be pursued further or whether age at marriage isn’t a factor and if it is a factor is there a specific minum age etc…. Are you prepared to put in the time energy and effort required.)

Are shadchanim refusing to redd shidduchim to 18/19 year olds? Are they being prohibited from doing so? or are they simpy being encouraged to spend time focusing on the girls who didn’t just start dating, a group that previously got less attention they needed.

If you think that’s a bad thing you are free to your opinion.

Re: your statment that their are rougly the same number of boys who have dated 10+ years and are still single to the number of girls who have dated 10+ years and are single, just the boys don’t go to proffesinal shadcahnim. You are free to think/believe what you want. However you must be privy to a secret group of boys who are hiding from civilation because no one seems to know they exist. Are there tens surely, a few hundred possibly,,, but no where near the numbers of older girls.

Heaven please tell us where they can be found, or at the very least please tell the girls who are so interested in getting married on which planet these hiding boys reside… becasue it surely isn’t in North America.

As for you insinusation that the divorce situation is somehow related to boys getting maried younger (something that that shidduch efforts haven’t really begun to accomplish) is a unfair attempt to discredit legitmate efforts towards easing the plight of the girls.

Nice to see that even the critics agree that age gap is a factor, even if there is disagreement as to the degree that it plays. As such certainly efforts to alleviate it are helpfu, and should be taken.

If other factors are in play as well, then of course they should be addressed as well, in any form or fashion that can bring about the necessary helpful change. Of course such action should be taken upon advisement with leaders of our comminties.

Anyone one with sound explanations of other causes as well as implementable methods of bringing about the necessary change would do well to contacct the NASI Project as they would be thrilled to help in any way they can and will work as hard as they can to bring it about.

That being said, I am told that to date NASI has not seen any other factor that both explains on the MACRO level why the girls are having such difficulty in conjunction with a action plan for allevating it.

As a example, the most realistic concept pointed out, is the thought that more boys go OTD than girls. Some prelim studies where done to see if this is true or not but there weren’t conclusive. (for the purpose of this discussion OTD means that unfortanelty they stey OTD and don’t marry or don’t marry frum. if they come back at 20 or 25 or 30and “marry in” then for the purpose of shidduchim it isn’t relevant)

In addition, so far there doesn’t seem to be a effective method for alleviating this (i mean aside from the superhuman efforts that many people expend in this arena urelated to the shidduch issue).

anon1m0us:

i’m glad that people identities are protected. If for every 100 girls there are 105 boys then for every 1000 girls there are 1050 boys.

while it is true that 105×18 is 1890 please note that 105×36 is 3780 however 105×36 is not relevant to our discussion and neither is 105×18. I apologize if i need to explain to you why, perhaps someone else in the cr would be able to explain it to you.

even you agree that due to population growth there are far more girls ages 18/19 than boys ages 22/23 (see my post earlier re: my typo) hence the shidduch crisis for the girls

your point regarding some non chashdishe boys get married at 18/19 is of course true however the number of boys doing that is extemely small and the standard style avergae age of marriage is 22/23 hence the problem.

I apologize but i really don’t want to rehash all these point. if you’d like look at the earlier threads posts(probably more than five) where these points where laid out clearly.

if boys would in general date girls close to their own age there would be no crisis.

Your point if they date close to their own age *or younger* (implying even much younger) is simply incorrect.

yes the crisis is MAN made and thus we can solve it…… by figuring out ways to encourage close in age shidduchim.

btw i’m curious if you are more familar with the litvishe shidduch scene or the chasidishe crowd.

I think this will be my last post in this thread explaining -again- how age gap creates the shidduch crisis. DY feel free to take over.

It is the avi chai foundation study that provided the intial basis. feel free to research it.

your sentence

“There are 105 boys born for 100 girls. AT year 18 there are 1,890 boys vs 1000 girls. Argument sake, 10.% of the girls marry. That leaves 900 Girls versus 1,790 boys left.”

there in lies your mistake. at year 18 there may be 1890 boys and 1000 girls (it should actually be 1050 based on 105/100).

HOWEVER what you error in is that these 105 boys don’t date those 100 girls. you need to match up the boys who are 22 (or 23) when these girls turn 18. Due to population growth the number of 22/23 year old boys farout number the number of 18/19 year old girls.

what you have explained beautifully is shiddcuh crisis in the chassidishe oilam where the boys beging shidduchim at 18. Perhpas that is the community you are familiar with and thus present your arguments.

Feel free to use this forum but I personally won’t use this fourm anymore to discuss the mathematics. You can look at the tens of old posts if you’d like to see the mathematical expalnation.

OTB: I don’t think you are over-simlifying at all……..

you are just simply not accurate.

In fact what you posit may even be true, as a result of the crisis. Remeber the mashal of musical chairs…

Pac: correct and thus if you are succesful in overhauling the livtvishe yeshiva system to have the boys begin dating at 20 – more power to you. (I am neither agreeing or disagreeing as to whether that would be a good idea, and truth be told my opinion is really ireelevant as that’s for the leaders of the generation to decide and implement. I’m simply pointing out the obvious, that it would greatly alleviate the age gap problem.)

I for one prefer to work with attainable solutions which is why I’m such a big fan of what the NASI project has been doing over the last few years.

Nothing radical – just slowly but surely encouraging close in age shidduchim. Slowly but surely generating more attention for the girls who didn’t just start dating. and coming soon – The boys starting to date slightly younger.

Of Course: of course you are correct 🙂 I was simply re-stating your point. But the girls do start at 19 and many get married then or very early 20.

Squek:

I’m not sure which letter you are qouting. The letter I posted earlier from 70 R”Y made 3 very clear points

1. the primary cause of the shidduch crisis is age gap

2. They called upon the community to give preference to close in age shidduchim and at the very least to give preference to girls who are age 20 and up.

3. They called upon the shadchanim to focus on close in age shidduchim and at the very least to give preference to girls 20 and up.

as such, your statement “the RY did not say anything other than that “close in age” shidduchim are a good thing” is simply not accurate.

Important post script: it is neither, my data, my analysis, nor my conclusions. Please don’t give me credit that’s not due.

We can continute to work very hard at closing the age gap/enocuraging close in age shidduchim etc. as this has a direct trickle up effect on the helping the older girls as well.

Can it help everyone, who knows? Can it help some – even many- DEFINATELY!. Therefore we MUST do whatever we can (with guidance from gedolim).

Even if we can’t help everyone that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t do as much as we can!!! For these girls the time is NOW. Every week month that goes by it gets harder and harder.

Now I’d like to ask a question of all CR members:

what have YOU done today, this week, this month, this year, to alleviate the situation (other than post in the CR).

Of course: for starters lets make sure that five years from now the problem is far smaller than it is now as opposed to having it be far greater..

Dr. P

I’m not quite sure what you mean when you refer to “my ideology”.

As for the name AZ your contact is incorrect.

With regards to the girls who have already dated quite some time and are still single. So long as there are any older single boys out there, any individual older girl certainly has opportunities to get married. Is it possible for all of them… i’d rather not answer that question- It’s simply to painful.

B”H as a result of the significant progress that has been made and continues to be made- many many slightly older girls are getting shidduch opportunities that previously would never have been available.

Just yesterday i was told about two engagments – 26 year old girls to 24 year old boys. B”H such shidduchim are becoming more and more commonplace.

As and aside, the model of apprecitating and compensating people for setting up girls who did not just enter the shiddcuh scene, has been a massive succes and is presently active in 4 communites. In September imy”h 3 more large communites will be adopting the model.

Prettyinpink:

I for one (for whatever it counts) am NOT a proponent of paying $150 to meet the girls for numerous reasons. I DO believe in shadcanim being appreciated for the results they prodcuce.

Date number one is a measurable result and date number for is clearly a quality idea. The money is NOT paid by the families, but rather by the community, thus the families don’t take it into consideration when considering the shidduch. (in the communites that haven’t publicized it the girls and their families aren’t even aware that the program exists, they simply find themselves with far more shidduch opportunites..)

The results speak for themselves. I won’t even bother debating the theory. RESULTS RESULTS RESUTLS…. (defined and measured by shidduch attention for girls who didn’t JUST start dating).

Shlishi: The local coordinators want to make sure they are deaing with people who are taking it seriously and abusing or redding silly suggestions. So far in the four communites that are running it there hasn’t been one instance of miscounduct, and any person who does simply gets disinvited. Once the potential shadchan reaches out to them they will be invited but it’s simply a way to prevent abuse.

D”Y: well done (without nitpicking the numbers) however this paragraph is backwards

“Although there are approximately the same number of girls as boys, there are 3% more 20 year old girls than 23 year old boys (this doesn’t -YOU MEAN DOES- factor in to the shidduch crises). There are also 3% more 20 year old boys than 23year old girls. This DOES – YOU MEAN DOESN’T- factor in to the shidduch crises.

whatrutalkingabt: Certainly is someone for everyone. What a shame that we are ruining it by preventing there to be equal number of boys and girls dating.

Mod 80: Navi Sheker

about the boys perhaps true about the girls false

Adorable: “I just redt one of my friends a shidduch and I see from this how every single date is a miracle and you might need a vacation just from setting it up.”

HOW TRUE!!!

In the event that is does NOT end up by the chuppah, i sincerely hope that you will realize that your efforts where NOT in vain, that getting them to a 3rd date is a MASSIVE SUCCESS!!

BPG: Funny – I saw their ad and i actually called as asked what kind of right do they have to make such a claim. The exact words are “no question about it– it works!”

He admitted he has no claim that his tzeddaka is any better than any other tzeddaka and of course we all believe tzedakka umassim tovim has the capacity to be koreah gzar din.

Sac: Tzedaaka umaasim tovim YES YES YES!! segula chasing NO NO NO… That leads people to false hope and -ultimately – to lose hope.