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By rules of the cr I am not allowed to post links. Contact the NASI Project and they will send you the info. That’s were I got it from. (unfortunately I can’t post their contact info either but it is well known and was in numerous publications over Pesach.
Oomis1105:
Hospitals in North America keep records of live births. Their data indicates that there are more male births every year than female births. Not enough to compensate for the 3 yr age gap, but enough to disprove your argument. Clearly you are unhappy with the dating style in the more right wing circles. I won’t debate the issue since it’s highly irrelevant to number discrepancy. Suffice it to say that the shidduch crisis is a serious problem is the “modern” crows as well. The benefit boys meeting girls on their own vis a vis the age gap is simply that boys are less likely to care about age once they meet the girls. HOWEVER as long as girls enter the island at 19 and boys at 22, we will always have many many more on the island than boys.
Proud Tatty: “Many of which never would have happened” That statement is based on mothers of boys saying they never would have considered the shidduch if not for the tremendous awareness that has begun to be created.
Squek: “They will continue spouting their talking points and inventing facts to anyone in earshot.”
You have still not explained which of the two basic premises you disagree with
1. Population growth of 3%-4& per year
2. Average Age gap amongst couples in non chasidishe circles
or do you not believe that these factors automatically create a significant inequity of numbers between boys and girl on shidduch island.
oomis1105: If you accept the premise (which should be obvious) that there are many more girls on the island than boys, then please explain how dating style will change that factor. I for one will offer no opinion on various styles of dating other than to say acroos the orthodox spectrum very modern to ultra yeshivish the boys by and large get married quickly (to girls-obviously for them the dating style is working) and yet many many to many girls remain single. Please explain this phenomena
Tzippi: From what I understand, the money incentive to shadchanim was the NASI Projects way of marketing the concept, not a form of bribing the shadchanim to suggest inappropriate matches just to make money. Interestingly enough, hundreds of close in age shidduchim were made, many that never would have happened. Apparently raising awareness is very successful in encouraging more close in age shidduchim. You can be a case study; as you have agreed to encourage your sons in their initial foray in shidduchim to only date girls who are close to their age.
I would be interested in directing you, however laws of the cr prevent giving out emails or links. I’m not quite sure how I can send you the data both regarding the population growth, age differential as well as the number of older singles presently out there. However, for a quick albeit non scientific glimpse try the following. Speak to fiv, ten or more shadchanim who deal in the regular non chasidhishe crowd and ask them how many older girls (i.e. dated more than 6 yrs) they have in their database and how many older boys (i.e. having dated more than 6 years). It’s not a scientific study but it’s a good start. Another suggestion is to get in touch with the NASI Project I’m sure they would provide you with the data.
Tzippi, you wrote: “I think the crisis is largely due to people being out for money, their image, etc. and not shalom bayis and preparing their kids adequately.”
Please explain how being out for money their image etc translates into thousands more older single girls than boys. It should translate intotThousands of poor older single girls and just as many older single boys who are waiting for the money. The facts on the ground don’t seem to support that theory.
Perhaps money dictates which girls get married, NOT how many. Even if ever girl was wealthy or if boys suddenly didn’t care about money; at the end of the day if their are more girls on the island than boys it is inevitable that the number of extra girls will remain single.
However I’m happy that you are willing to go along with the suggestion that boys give it a shot when they start dating. If there were many mnay more mothers like you the situation would be significantly alleviated.
Nice to see that the chevra is coming around.
Tzippi: If the was a community wide movement that the first three or four girls that boys date be close in age; we would see an unbelievable number of close in age shidduchim, and the problem would be greatly alleviated. The average guy in lakewood for example gets engaged to one of the first few girls he goes out with. If those girls would be close to his own age, we would have hundreds more close in age shiddcuhim. If you are going to do that with your own son? Kol Hakavood!! And tell your friends!
Unfortunately that has not yet been achieved on a widespread scale. However, I’ve heard from the NASI Project that in the last year in a half since the launch of the project they have been informed of well over 700 close in age shidduchim, many many of which never would’ve happened if not for the new found awareness and acceptance. Hopefully it will keep up,.
Great idea. Lets have the boys start dating at 25 and the girls starting at 19. With a standard six year age gap you will have between 15-20% of every all girls schools graduating class never getting married and never having children.
Tzippi: Do you really believe that 8-10 months makes or breaks it in terms of a boys maturity. As one very astute rosh yeshiva said. It’s true that boys at 22 are not as ready for marriage as the girls. However, at 23 they aren’t either. To think that there is a significant difference between boys who get married at 23 vs. 22 is simply silly. Yet for the age gap it makes all the difference in the world. As long as the boys are in the protected environment of yeshiva (and let’s assume that’s a good thing) there is a certain naivete that will be common. Encouraging boys to skip the learning in israel or to shorten their time there will not prevent them from being the husbands that they could or should be. As for their learning per se, that’s a whole new thread. Suffice it to say that a overwhelming majority of the boys who go to israel at 20+ will tell you that their learning in israel wasn’t what they thought it would be.
I have yet to see a single person disagree in a substantive way with the two obvious premises creating the numerical discrepancy.
1. Population Growth (3%-4%)
2. Age differential among average couple (2.5-3.5 years)
Does anyone debate these two points?
Does anyone debate the automatic effect these two factors have on the number of available boys relative to available girls?
Both of these facts are obvious without even providing empirical statistical data. On the population growth there is accurate data. On age gap it’s hard to provide more than anecdotal evidence. However, one must be blind to not observe in our community both of these obvious factors.
What happened a hundred years age is really of no concern, unless one buys into the theory that:
A) this problem existed years ago (hard to know for sure since we don’t have good data on population growth and/or dating style)
B) the Gedolim of that were aware of the nature of the problem
C) the Gedolim of that time made a conscious decision to let things be and have hundreds and hundreds of girls remain agunos due to their understanding that potential fallout from attempting to alleviate the situation warranted such a decision. (To think so is utter lunacy. Open any teshuva sefer and notice the length to which Gedolei Yisroel went to be matir INDIVIDUAL agunos.)
In all honesty, people who believe points A,B,C are true and therefore we have a “kabala” to do nothing about the present tragedy is simply very misguided.
Ames,
For starters I will humor you. Let’s pretend it was like this for thosands of years. Therefore let’s not discuss it lets do nothing about it. You know for thousands of years (bavel, rome, inquisition, crusades, cossacks etc.) Jews were persecuted, so why try to save Jewish lives in Germany. Afterall it’s been going on for a long time, let’s just except it???
Fact is that there has never been a population growth like we are seeing recently. Coupled with the dating style that by and large girls start one year after seminary and boys (yeshiva style for sure) first go to israel at 20-21 and come back 22-23. THIS is a relatively new phenamona that created the age gap problem.
shaatrta:
I don’t know what community you are a part of, however in the non chassidic orthodox community the number of older single girls is greater than the number of older single boys by a couple thousand. You are right it’s not a crisis it’s a TRAGEDY.
To rephrase the issue. Before we even begin to discuss possible solutions to the crisis, we need to come to a understanding of the root cause. Unless someone debates the following two facts
1. The Jewish population and specifically the frum population is growing very rapidly.
2. The average age gap amongst couples in our community is aprox. 3 years.
We can debate whether the growth rate is 3.2% or 4.1% etc. etc. We can debate whether the average age gap is 2.9 yrs or 3.6 yrs etc. etc. These discusion will decide whether the amount of girls who can not get married is 8.5% or 11.4%. However we slice it, unless we debate one of the starting premises there is not much to discuss. A VERY SIGNIFCANT number of girls have no chance to get married. If this is a acceptable situation to our community due to issues involved in trying to close the age gap so be it. However let’s not pretend this isn’t a clear cut truth. Our decision to not act is causing hundreds and hundreds of girls to never get married and never have a family.
We have not even begun to discuss specific tactics as to how to go about closing the age gap other than to encourage in a general sense more close in age shidduchim. No one has suggested that every boy get married at 21, and no one has suggested that no girl date before 21. What is being discussed is to encourage more close in age shidduchim.
I’m not quite sure why the vehemence and reluctance to recognize this seemingly obvious problem.
Joeph, I’m not sure which community you are part of.
The statement “It seems to me, the so-called “shidduch crisis” is that folks are marrying later, not remaining unmarried indefinitely. How many old-maids (or alte bochors) are there in reality?” is totally inaccurate.
The number of older girls out number alte bochurs by more than two thousand. (Admittedly it’s hard to get hard numbers on it because there is no one central database for this info) Perhaps some will marry the remaining alte bochurs. Perhaps some will marry divorced or widowed men. To think that all will get married is simply not being in touch with reality.
Tzippi,
NO one is suggesting puttin the girls in the freezer until they are 22. What does need to happen is for boys to start dating slighly earlier and the girls slightly later.
As for the syrian community. I don’t have first hand knowledge. However in speaking to numerous shadchanim and rabbanim there I have been told the following. (with regard to the yeshiva crowd)
1. Yes there is a terrible problem with the girls vis a vis dating.
2. In addition to age gap causing an in-equity of boys to girls ratio, they also have the following two factors
a. The graduation rate of the yeshiva girls high schools is much higher than in the yeshiva boys high school. This creates and inequity of numbers even at the same ages in the yeshiva crowd. (I don’t know this first hand but this is what I’m told).
b. Many of the yeshiva boys end up going the Ashkenazi route, learn in mainstream Ashkenzi yeshivos and marry Ashckenazi girls. The Askenazi boys are much more reluctant to reciprocate and marry Sephardic girls as there are so many quality girls from their own community they have no need to.
The issue is NOT stigma. The issue is that on the island there are many many more girls than guys. The reason for that is simply age gap. Unless a concerted effort is made to even out the numbers, a very significant numbers of girls will never get married. Obviously not being married at 24 doesn’t mean a girl will never get married. However even if every guy 30-35 got married tomorrow to (girls obviously) there will still be hundred and hundreds of girls left out. Those girls in all likelihood will never get married because I don’t see any time soon that 25 year old boys will in large numbers marry 29-34 year old girls.
As mox eloquently pointed out
“Do you agree that the growth rate is somewhere near 3.5% and the average age gap is between 2.5 and 3.5 years. If yes then how can these “inputs” not cause a problem. If not which one do you disagree with.”
Jay Matt19,
I apologize if you are uncomfortable with the facts. Presently there are in the dating pool of older guy and girls (defined by not married after having been dating more than 5 years each). The girls out mnumber the guys by over 2,000. This is a direct result of the inequity of the numbers. It may be true that girls are ready to get married at 19. It may be true that boys under 23 are not, (although that’s highly debatable. In all likelihood there isn’t much difference between boys who are almost 22 and 23 year olds). In any event we can continue to do what we are doing and be guaranteed to have ongoing similar reslults of hundreds soon to be thousands of girls never getting married and never having children.
As Einstein said the definition of stupidity is doing the same thing again and again and expecting different results. This is where the non chasidishe community finds itself regarding shidduchim.
Tzippi,
No suggests that age be the driving force behind shidduchim. This issue on hand is making it a focus. There are so many quality 21,22 girls etc. out there. It’s important that the boys be encouraged to go for it. If boys were ready to say the first three girls I date will be within 1 yr of my age, the problem would be greatly resolved. The reason? A overwhelming number of boys get married to one of the first few girls they date. Plus it would remove the stigma from dating a girls who suffers from the “why isn’t she married already” syndrome known to many boys.
Squeak,
In the chassidishe community there is a slight boy problem that is not nearly as significant as the girl problem by the non chasidishe. The reason? POPULATION GROWTH and AGES.
In North America every year their are aprox. 4% more male births than female. This has been documented through extensive studies of hospitals that keep records. This is true for the white caucasian comminity. Being that the chasidishe boys start dating at the same age as the girls (18-19) and frequently they are younger, inevitably in chassidishe circles there will be boys leftover. It is precisely this reason why in the non-chassidishe community we need to close the age gap to aprox. one year ON AVERAGE. Closer than that on average will cause a reverse problem. However the 4% more boys per year is not enough to make up for the difference between the 19yr old and the 22 yr olds. It makes the Problem 10% instead of 14%. 10% girls per year having no shot to get married is pretty serious I think.
Dear Squeak,
Do you deny that
1. younger grades are than older grades for both girls and boys(population growth).
Please don’t, because a school study done by the Avi Chai foundation of all Jewish Schools in North America proved this without a shadow of a doubt.
2. Do you deny that: In the non chassic world Girls start dating 18-19 and boys appox 22-23.
in other words we have the equivalent of 12th grade boys dating ninth grade girls. Simply put every year there are more girls entering the dating pool (otherwise known as shidduch island) than boys.
If on the island there are 100 boys (12th graders) and 150 girls (9th graders), I guarantee you that 50 girls aren’t getting off the island.
Subjective factors such as education, personality, looks, money, connections, etc. determine perhaps which 100 girls out of the 150 will get married. No matter how you slice 50 girls can’t married.
Best segulah. work to CLOSE THE AGE GAP by encouraging more close in age shiddchim. It is the source of the problem. Not only would this be a segulah beacuse “Kol Hamispalel bi’ad chaveiro vi’hu tzarich li’oso davar hu ne’na techila”, it’s is also the natural solution to the problem.
Stay tuned to a letter from numerous roshei yeshiva to this effect.
Who was eliezer eved avraham’s father?
answer to yw moderator -39 ????? write before sheni