Aussieboy:

You write:

“don’t start talking about a shidduch crisis there are plenty of guys but the girls dont want them because they smoke.”

and yet

“and somehow these guys still find a way of getting married even with all the girls saying they dont want a guy who smokes”

Precisely BECAUSE of the shidduch crisis! Simple law of supply and demand.

(mods, I will keep the shidduch crisis discussion to the appropriate thread, but hey I didn’t bring it up here.)

We have given you a LOT of leeway with your posts in the other thread. Now you are just grandstanding and it is not viewed kindly.

Ames:

Danish:

The population explosion that has been experienced in recent years is far far greater than anything in recent history.

Here’s a simple question. Ask people that went to school in the 60’s and 70’s how many of their classmates had families with 10 children. It was almost unheard of. Nowadays especially in the right wing communities it is very commonplace.

The main source was the avi chai foundation study of class sizes for all day schools in North America. The results have been corroborated by other studies. I am not an actuary and was not invlolved in discovering the problem although I have seen the studies. I think mox mentioned earlier that he did some of the research. Perhaps he will enlighten us as to the rest of the source material.

Truth be told, one does not need to be a mathematician to realize that B”H our population is growing very rapidly. One also does not need to be a mathematician to realize that girls start dating around 19 and boys around 22. What obviously follows is that there is certainly not enough 22 yr old boys for the 19 yr old girls. Perhaps one need to be a mathematician to figure out if the discrepancy is 9.67% or 11.13% or somewhere in the middle. From my point of view either way it’s an unacceptable problem and something we must do our utmost to alleviate.

Joseph: I will ignore the personal attacks. Please clarify which of the following two facts you believe to be inaccurate.

Population growth between 3-4%

Average age gap between couples of apox. 3 yrs.

If you disagree please present a argument as to on what basis you feel the population growth based on class sizes is inaccurate. If you agree but still believe that this doesn’t create a numerical discrepancy on shidduch island please clarify.

Just Smile:

You write:

“Oh, and BTW, there are plenty other ways to help this exact issue. Like telling girls to actually figure out what they want to do in life, and work towards that – so that when they are on the market they will have a solid stance in life.”

kapusta:

You write:

“Who ever said ploni is exactly what they think they want?”

Please explain how either of these points in any way shape of form will alleviate the situation on shidduch island with 100 boys and 150 girls.

Do you agree with the numbers and offer a solution, OR do you still think that the numbers problem is a minor issue.

It is obviously IMPOSSIBLE to solve any problem without knowing what the problem is.

I posit that the shidduch crisis is overwhelmingly a direct result of the inequity of numbers. If we solve or alleviate the inequity of numbers then much has been accomplished. If not; everything else we attempt will be like fixing deck chairs on the titanic.

SO once again, is the discusion here about what is THE problem, or a debate about ways to perhaps alleviate the age gap.

Tzippi:

Not ALL boys, if raised your boys well kol hakavood. However, simple supply and demand dictates that as long as there exists a significant inequity of numbers the girls will get a raw deal. It doesn’t have to be that way and we as a community can change it.

Just Smile: I haven’t once suggested that boys start going out earlier and certainly not earlier than they are ready. What has been discussed in encouraging more close in age shiddcuhim. Boys will be boys and they will start going out whenever it is appropriate for them INDIVIDUALY. However, whenever they start, they should be encouraged to date girls close to whatever age they are when they start.

The discusion about boys 21.5 and girls 20 is a long term goal not for any individual who today is not ready.

anonymiss:

check out this from, oomis1105

“It comes down to simple supply and demand.

You have a point!”

sounds like she’s coming around!

Sounds like I haven’t explained myself well enough. We are not talking about girls getting married at 27 instead of 18. We are discussing more marriages between 23 yr old boys and 21 yr old girls instead of with 19 yr olds. If more 21 yr olds getting married instead of 19 year old doesn’t find favor in your eyes, than as I wrote before, it sounds like you prefer to leave the situation as is and continue with the tragedy afflicting our communtied

SJSinNYC: You write,

“I am not sure if 2,000 women unmarried is a “crisis” – maybe not all women are meant to get married.”

You are entitled to your opinion. In which case this discussion is not relevant to you. This thread is addressing the members of our communities who view this as a crisis, or more accurately as a tragedy and would like to do something about it.

oomis1105:

Thanks for coming around

SjsinNYC:

You write,

“if the numbers are that skewed (which, I honestly don’t think is the case)”

Do you buy into population growth of 3%-4% per year?

Do you buy into average age gap between boy and girl around 3 yrs?

The automatic result is approx 10% per year left over on the island. Do you think it is more skewed than that or less??

Tzippi:

Clearly $$$$ helps decide which girls have an advantage. If there are 150 girls and 100 boys on a island ……

Which 100 girls of the 150 will have a better shot a getting marreid. Most likely looks, yichus $$$$ etc. However even if every girl had everything. Or better yet. Even if every boy had all the qualities that you think they should have, it will not change the fact that 50 have no chance of getting off the island.

You see, as a community we really shouldn’t care whether the 50 stuck girls are rich or not, pretty or not, great personalities or not. What we should care about is making sure there are equal numbers on the island.

Oh bytw, when the numbers are equal suddenly the $$$ and other such factors become much less of an issue as the boys have less leverage.

If you want to alleviate the $$ problem (and you do) then solve the numbers. The money will automatically solve itself. Simple law of supply and demand

Tzippi: It appears that you have an ax to grind regarding the kollel system and the unfair burden it places on girls.

This is a post of yours from three months ago

“As it is, for some reason over the last generation it has become much more widely accepted to support for x number of years. If boys will start dating earlier, say 2 years earlier, it will become x+2. Not necessarily good for the shalom bayis of the young couple, and may not help the parents much easier”

If you believe that $$$$ is a major cause of shidduch crisis, please come out and say it, (and I will disprove it). However if you are just complaining about the problems in the kollel system without relevance to the age gap …….

Do you really think that if boys go to EY for a year they will financially more prepared? Last I checked Brisk and Mir don’t have night college as part of the sidrei hayeshiva.

As for why people claim that the year in israel is unproductive for many boys, try speaking to the boys that have come back over the last couple of years. Is seems that a very large portion of them thought they would merit (avira de”y machkim) however unfourtantly it didn’t happen like they thought. Ask around the boys and their rebbeim. I await the results from your survey.

Tzippi:

I don’t get it. If a boy would do better in his learning by not going to EY before his wedding should he still go??? After he gets engaged/married a mature decision should be made as to where he should continue learning taking all factors into account. Are you advocating going to EY at a time that is not good for his learning simply to “get it out of his system”. Obviously, boys (with their wives) who decide to learn in EY post chasuna will have to make sure that it works financially. Whether or not they learned there as a bochur should make no difference.

If your point is that learning in EY post chasuna is not a financially smart decision because they will require complete financail support; and you feel that something should be done about it (your argument not mine); than that is all the more reason to discourage boys from going before their chassuna. Clearly the boys that are most likely to return and require financial support post chasuna are those that where there before they started dating. Boys that didn’t learn there as a bochur in all likelihood will continue learning learning wherever he had been before his chasuna.

Squek:

Modern Orthodox, YU, etc. clearly have the shortage of boy problems that we have been discussing. Try picking up a phone and speaking to the various shadchanim and organizations that deal with those communities, and you will quickly see how true it is.

Re Chassidic communities:

we have discussed previously that there is NOT a shortage of boys there simply because they don’t have the age gap issue. Boys begin dating at the same age as the girls.

In a nutshell there is a tremendous shortage of 22 yr old boys vis a vis 19 yr old girls. No two ways about it.

tzippi:

I assume you are referencing the discussion that has been taking place in various media forms regarding the “stlyle” that almost all the boys go to learn in Eretz Yisroel after a couple of years in bais medrash. It is no secret that many of them are not nearly as productive in their learning there as they are were both prior and subsequent to their stay in Eretz Yisroel. The simple conclusion is thererefore not every single boy should automatically go just because it’s the style. I actually think that’s a very reasonable point. Whether or not it will have a positive effect on closing the age gap (it will), is only a secondary point.

Do you really think that boys who would do better by not going should still go? Or are you in la la and think that all the boys who go are fabulously productive. If you believe the later try speaking to good boys (and their american rebbeim) who have been there in the last five years and ask them in hindsight if it was a samrt decision to go.

Squek: You write

“I’ve already explained that 3-4% annual growth is a fabricated and grossly exaggerated number.”

You have claimed, but I don’t recall an explanation. Especially in light of the fact that a study of day schools across North America showed the annual growth to be in the 3-4% range. (the more right wing the larger population growth due to larger family sizes.)

You also write:

“if we say (for example) that the problem is that boys have a much harder vetting process (i.e. many years of long days in yeshiva, and the possession of a “plan” – have you ever seen a girl with a plan?) than girls do (half days in sem for a coupla months – who can’t handle that?), that theory is far more difficult to digest.”

Please explain yourself. In previous posts you have agreed to the (obvious) statement that their are many more girls on the island than boys. The numerical explanation happens to explain that phenomena. Your suggestion about vetting processes etc. which is a re-take on the “it’s much easier to be a good girl than a good guy” theory still doesn’t explain how if every guy gets married to one girl. How are their more girls left at the end of the day. If their are more “good” girls than good” guys. we should be left with a bunch of “good” girls and a equal number of “not good” boys. Yet you yourself admit this is not the case.

The Rov:

I’m not sure which ideas you are referring to. If you mean the concept that THE cause of the shidduch crisis is due to the inequity of numbers on shidduch island. Then I beg to differ. All the names that of Ziknei Hador you have mentioned have signed to this effect encouraging boys to date girls their own age for this reason. The letter has been printed numerous times in various frum newspaper.

You write:

“This is the will of the Lord in his infinite wisdom.”

That is a very convenient remark for a person or community who don’t want to take responsibility for anything. I suppose we should shut down, Hatzalza, Camp Simcha Bonei Oilam, Yad Eliezer, Tomchie Shabbos and any of the other myriad of unbelievable organizations that our community has ongoing. After all what all these organizations have in common is, they help alleviate situations that were brought on by “Lord in his infinite wisdom”. Of course it’s the ratzon hashem and he expects us to be up to the challenge.

Squek: You clearly agree that there is a significant numerical discrepancy between the numbers of boys and girls on the island. Yet you write;

“(though if I had to pin it down on one, I’d put it to the last one on my list, and the age gap not even in the top 10”

So long as you agree to the two basic premises (and you haven’t begun to disprove either)

1. Population Growth of 3%-4%

2. Average age gap amongst couples of aprox. 3yrs

These factors automatically dictate close to 10% of girls having no chance to marry. How can that be refereed to as a “insignificant factor”???

As for you second comment “manipulating people is wrong”. I don’t get it. Is encouraging boys to date girls their own age wrong?? Is pointing out the benefits of dating girls who are 21-24 wrong?

SJSinNYC:

You write:

“Some people get married and widowed young. Or divorced. So they might marry someone who has never been married. So someone might get married young, get divorced young and never marry again.”

I don’t quite understand how that impacts in any way the “simple” math that dictates that 10% of each graduating class has no one to marry. Lets go back to our island. If there are 100 boys and 150 girls. Say 90 boys marry 90 girls. We have 10 boys left and 60 girls. Thinking that the eitza is for those 50 girls to hope to latch on to the widows/divorces men from the 90 is simply not realistic.

If I may say so myself; the math IS simple but it’s people who refuse to acknowledge it who are oversimplifying the situation.

Joseph:

The island I refer to is the total dating pool of orthodox jews in North America. If you have some plane that could ship the thousands of stuck girls and land them in a community with eligible available men, I’ll be the first one to contribute towards the cost of transportation. HOWEVER that solution has yet to be found.

Just Smile:

You write’ “but those families aren’t on your radar of shidduchim – so it doesn’t make a difference to you that a more modern girl gets engaged – she wasn’t on any of your lists”

I’m not quite sure why you think “modern” girls aren’t on any of the lists. Last I checked the shadchanim and organizations that I’ve spoken to deal will girls from all backgrounds and styles provided they are orthodox. This shidduch crisis exists very very much in the “modern” (I hate labels but you used them) crowd.

As for you first point. That brain lock

“most people see it as a negative if the girl has been going out for a few years and still not married”

is exactly what needs to be countered. There are so many regular normal great girls 21-24 (and older, I’m just using those ages as the initial stage) who have BARELY dated. It is absurd to think that if she isn’t married yet, there must be something wrong with her. B”H as a result of the publicity and discussion of the past year, many many boys have gotten married to girls who are close to their own age. AND guess what? They realized that the silly arguments put forth to NEED a much younger girl are just that, silly.

(That’s not to say that for some boys the right girl for him will be a couple years younger. The issue is correcting the misconception that EVERYONE needs to marry a girl much younger.)

SJSinNYC: you write, “I wonder if that portion is what you are calling the “age gap difference.” I don’t think 100% of men or women ever got married.”

That portion is NOT what is referred to by the “age gap difference”. We refer to the many many more older girls than boys. Suppose we have 100 older boys, perhaps they (or those who rc”l never marry) are a result of the small percentage of people who never get married. Obviously a corresponding number of older girls would be for the same reason. However, how do we have so many MORE older single girls abouve and beyond the total number of older boys with no one to marry?? THAT is what is a result of the “age gap”.

Squek: You seem to agree to both points and therefore agree that there are many more girls on the island than boys. (correct me if I’m wrong).

You then write,

“People die. People get sick. People have disabilities, physical and mental. People can be loners. People can abandon their community. People from outside a community can join. A community can impose harsher standards on certain people than on others. The caveats are endless.”

Assuming we have 100 boys on the island and 150 girls as you seem to agree. Are you suggesting that the reason for the extra 50 girls on the island is NOT a result of the factors that you agree to, but rather because.

A. significantly more boys die young than girls (and therefore aren’t on the island)

b. significantly more boys are loners than girls (and therefore aren’t on the island)

c. significantly more boys get sick than girls (and therefore aren’t on the island)

d. significantly more boys are disabled than girls (and therefore aren’t on the island)

e. significantly fewer boys from outside our community join than girls (and therefore aren’t on the island)

f. harsher standards are imposed on boys than on girls (i guess therefore making more boys unmarriagble)

In all honesty I don’t event think that you believe this. You agree that the two factors we put forth create a inequity of numbers, yet you argue that the inequity of numbers is due to other “endless caveats” that in no way shape or form create a significantly smaller pool of dating boys.

Squek: Nice to have you back. That post was strictly in response to Just Smile.

You seem to agree that there are more girls than boys in the pool. Your issue is that you don’t buy the age gap explanation as to why there are more girls in the pool. I’ll ask once again which of the following two points to you dispute.

1. Growth of 3-4% per year

2. Average age difference among couples in the 3 yr range.

If you agree with both factors than I’m not sure what there is to debate. If you disagree, please offer some logical argument to disprove the two seemingly obvious points.

wow unbelievable interest. I’ll deal with one at a time.

Joseph: Where have you seen that indicates there are as many 22 yr old boys as 19 yr old girls. That isn’t indicated in the census stats.

Just smile: “I’m a single Yeshiva guy – going out for a little while now” Precisely. The boys who are new to dating are not on anybody’s database. HOWEVER the boys who have been dating 5 yrs ARE. Yet the numbers of girls in the database that have been dating for 5 years outnumbers the numbers of boys by the thousands. That’s why we took a look at OLDER singles in the databases.

“I don’t need every shnook shadchan…. I have enough people doing that without the lists. But a girl, who it could be a year between dates”

I’m sure you are one of a kind and have everyone calling to redd you shiddcuhim, as are every one of your friends. Kind of interesting that you write “But a girl, who it could be a year between dates”

If the boys date every week and the girls once a year, who are the boys dating?????? Obviously there are many many more girls in the pool than boys!!

Tzippi: Last I checked Saw you at Sinai Yu connect, Invei hagefen Gateways aren’t based on a Lakewood trajectory. The reason I use lakewood is simply because it is the single largest collection of dating boys and it is the easiest to get statistics from there.

SJSinNYC: No one can claim to know who the basherte is. This is subject to a huge discussion of which to be honest is not relevant to alleviating the crisis. However if bas ploni l’ploni means that everyone married their basherte than please explain all the older single girls with no one to match up with. Who is their Ploni?????? He got married to someone!

BYTW: The arizl rights that bas ploni l’ploni is only till 18.

Joseph: “It has clearly been established that there are not more young women of marriageable age alive than men.”

Clearly established where?? How many shadchanim have you spoken to. How many shadchanim databases how you seen. How many High school alumni lists have you reviewed to make such a inaccurate statement. ACross the board in orthodox Jewry from very modern to ultra yeshivish this phenomena exists. (more acute in the more yeshivish circles for reasons outlined above.

The numbers of girls on the island outnumbes the boys in the thousands. This has been documented. Feel free to contact NASI as I did to get the info. But please don”t state as fact totally false information.

As for you other point that so long as there is any available men than any individual girl can get married is correct. If you have 100 women and 5 men clearly 5 women can get married. However 95 can’t no way no how.

not to be nit picky, but you write “If all men marry women 3 years younger, and frum population growth is more than 2% per year (probably this number is too low b”h), this more than offsets the maximum ratio of 105 men: 100 women.”

“(probably this number is too low b”h), more than offsets the problem” doesn’t express the seriousness of the problem.

However, if we all understand the problem I’m good. Unfortunately our good friend joseph seems to disagree.

Thought this thread was about shidduchim tips not screen names.

In one of the frum papers over yom there was ad with some interesting suggestions for closing the age gap. One of them appears to be a brillinat suggestion.

“If come tu b’shvattamuz (i.e. lakewood freezer) bochurim are only permitted to date girls over 21, and to date younger girls they need to wait till the end of the zeman, then boys would have a strong incentive to date girls their own age.”

Now that’s a great idea!

Nose clips?? Perhaps tissues to dry the tears of the hundreds and hundreds (it’s actually in the thousands) of girls who are the unfortunate victims of our collective indifference. B”H of late some movement has been made to take steps to alleviate the situation. “Joseph” I apologize if the shidduch situation makes you uncomfortable but that’s not a reason to prevent discussion on the topic. After all what greater segula andor tip could their possibly be than to alleviate the core problem.

Thank oomis1105. However Joseph and Will Hill would like to continue to pretend that there isn’t a numerical problem, yet they haven’t even challenged in any form or fashion either of the two basic premises.

1. Popultaion growth

2. average age gap amongst married couples.

Perhaps oomis you’ll be able to convince them.