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Dr Pepper:
Since you are the resident mathemitician. please explain how “eaier to be a good girl vs. a good guy” tranlates into over the period of the firslt 3 yrs of dating almost all the guys are married and yet many many girls are still single?
let assume 100 boys and 100 girls enter the dating pool each year for 3 years is it possible after 3 years for there to be more unmarried girls form this 3 year segment than unmarried boys??????
Please Keep it mathematical
Jphone: you write
“There are an equal number of girls and boys that are ready, willing and able to get married.”
This is factually incorrect and this is at the root of the debate in this and the many other threads.
It seems I’m done here as those that get it have gotten it already. Those that haven’t yet-stay tuned…….
Can I interest you in another thread? Perhaps you can submit a joke to the humor thread… if the entire world doesn’t get it then you can keep re-posting it until they do… YW Moderator-72
JPhone: if you believe that total number of dating boys and girls are equl than your
theory doesn’t make any sense. How could there be so many more single girls than single guys.
if there are not enought x men for the x girls. Than there should be not enough y girls for the y men. WHERE are all these y men???? THEY ARE MARRIED as well
it is really NOT doctorate level math
Tzippy: it is not I who have labeled “good” boys not “good boys”. Frankly that not part of my terminology as my whole interest is figuring how to give ALL girls an opportunity to get married. The present inequity of numbers doesn”t allow that. You see I don’t really care what label the unfourunate leftover girls are given. In my book it is all tragic and gong forward it is clearly AVOIDABLE, if we only pay attention…..
Jphone:
According to your theory there shouldn”t be enough girls around in the “not best” pool for all the boys. after all you write there are more girls in the “best pool” than there are boys”. Which should mean there are more boys in the “not best” pool than girls.
Yet even the boys in the “not best” pool all seem to get married??
Please explain how you answer this obvious problem with your theory (otherwise known as the “there are more good girls than good boys” theory)
jphone: here’s a questions for you
who do the “not” best boys marry? because by all accounts they are getting married
logic is that in your hypothetical scheme every there are 10 more girls entering the dating pool than boys ….. it’s NOT rocket science
without doing any equations if we follow your hypothetical assumptions obviously 10 girls every year wouldn’t get married.
simply because
#4 Every boy marries a girl born one calendar year after himself.
#5 Every year 20 more babies are born than the previous year (half boys; half girls).
“But just requiring that no girl gets married until 2 years after the normal 4 years of high school is not extreme.”
If that would be at all possible to implement GO FOR IT. Speak to school principals, rabbonim etc. I’ll be your biggest fan.
(but it won’t be easy!!)
jphone:
There are SO many girls 21-22 who have almost never dated. Try speaking to shadchanim mothers of girls etc. and see for yourself what is doing out there……
jphone:
I’m not sure why your tongue is firmly planted in cheek.
Adding a year to high school for girls would have an unbelievable positive impact on the shidduch crisis. (although It will not likely happen anytime soon, but maybe just maybe……)
BP Totty:
The problem is not those handul of 27 year olds. The problem is that the 98% who get married well before they turn 27 are marrying girls considerably younger than them thus ensuring many many girls remain single
BP Totty:
You are correct that boys don’t get everything on their wish list.
However
Since you used BMG as an example- Please note regarding the boys in BMG:
within 3 yrs of arriving they are almost all married.
After 5 yrs (aprox 27.5 yrs old) there are less than 2% left.
As for the girls that started dating at that same time as those boys……….
Jphone you write:
“There is, I believe, a 3rd option. Kick some boys off the island.”
Island (in my terminology) refers to people trying to date whether or not they are getting dates.
If (and to me it’s obvious that this is the case) the problem is not having enough men on the island relative to the number of women; Please explain how by kicking some boys off the island would help.
It seems like you are from the chevra who don’t believe that age gap is creating the inequity of numbers problem…….
Jphone:
The reason there are 50 fewer girls on the island is because of population growth not because of boys tying up lists. I you want to even out the numbers on the island you have two choices
1. Either get boys on the island a bit younger
2. Or girls should first come on to the island a bit older.
all else is playing musical chairs without enough chairs…..
Lets pretend that changing the rules of the game would actually make a significant difference. What’s the single most effective way to take the ball out of the boys (and their mothers) court?
EVEN OUT THE NUMBERS
So long as the boys hold the hammer-due to the inequity of numbers that so greatly favors the boys-, even the YW CR won’t be able to change the rules of the game.
jphone: I didn’t want to comment but you are leaving me no choice.
you write
You have 500 boys and 500 girls.
If these were the facts and the problem persisted perhpas we could have a discussion.
HOWEVER these are not the facts and you theory is not accurate. The boys ARE getting married and they are getting married to girls. Yet many many girls get left out.
One more time: If we have 150 girls on an island and 100 boys …….
Do you think it makes a difference whe gets redd first?????
Tzippi:
New Age Thinking??
Einstein said
“To solve the significant problems we face we can not approach them at the same level of thinking we were at we created them”
And if there isn’t near one hundred percent compliance then will the numbers move significantly?)
YES YES YES
Just look at what the NASI project has accomplished in less than two years
Your soap box re: preparing kids for marriage is very important but wholly unrelated to the problem of far two many older single girls.
welcome back, you made your point… please refrain from making multiple posts in this thread making the same point. Thank you. YW Moderator-72
Forget about this kind of school or that kind of school.
In order to assure enough desks and chairs for upcoming 9th grade girls over the next couple of years there is a need for 3 complete parallel 9th grades of 30 girls each to open up in 2009-2010. Then again another 3 parallel 9th grades in 2010-2011 etc. etc. for the next 5 years.
This problem isn’t going away any time soon.
Hope u like age gap because something big is in the works
BY2:
I am far from a mathmetecian no do I do survey’s- Free Time?!?! Who has That
The numbers I qouted are from a person who was looking into opening a Girls High School. He did his due diligence- and this is what he found.
Pretty Interesting!
Bas Yisroel:
WANT TO STOP THE LISTS????
CLOSE THE AGE GAP
I agree 1000% that population growth is a bracha. “problem” refers to the difficulty in getting into school and I don’t think anyone considers that a bracha. Therefore, unless we have large news schools opening up EVERY year, the “problem” will not go away.
Thought the cr might want to digest the following numbers.
Presently there are 90 more 8th grade girls than 9th grade girls in Lakewood.
There are 180 more 7th grade girls than 9th grade girls in Lakewood.
There are 270 more 6th grade girls than 9th grade girls in Lakewood.
This is true for the next 5-6 yrs.
In other words.
In order to assure place for upcoming 9th grade girls over the next couple of years there is a need for 3 complete parallel 9th grades of 30 girls each to open up in 2009-2010. Then again another 3 parallel 9th grades in 2010-2011 etc. etc. for the next 5 years.
Anyone wonder why??
POPULATION GROWTH B”H.
This problem isn’t going away any time soon.
To the almighty mods, FINALLY! someone knows how to address the moderation panel correctly!
Regarding thread dedicate to the age gap discussion.
367 posts in 2 weeks. Clearly the most popular thread in he YW CR. it could go to 10,000 posts with you and your alter ego playing the same tune. state your case. listen to the other side – done! OK, maybe a rebuttal, but 400 posts of repetition is a bit much.
The moderators have made it clear they don’t like the thread. Well one way is to shut it down, even though the members clearly use the thread properly. Your call. It’s a shame that you no longer want to be part of the solution.
We don’t take kindly to your attacks like that, and that wasn’t your first towards us. Saying that we are not part of “THE” solution because we do not do what you want when you want is extremely egotistical of you, to say the least.
For my point I am very thankful for the opportunity to have generated so much awareness on the topic. …and we appreciate your expression of Hakoras Hatov to the YWN-Coffee Room and us moderators for publishing your opinion
PM: “If you don’t like my scenario, feel free to ignore it”
There is nothing about your scenario that I don’t like. It just isn’t accurate. I have not hat in this ring. If your scenario was where it was at, you can b sure I would have no interest in trying to encourage boys to date slightly earlier and girls to date slightly later.
Truth of the matter is, that to date the only success has been to encourag boys to date girls their own age, (see letter from lewenstein) and that I think is something you and I are in accord on.
PM: Perhaps I haven’t read all your posts. Please point me to the plethora of evidence you claim. Your theory certainly doesn’t hold up or explain the facts on the ground.
I fail to see how you have demolished the age gap theory. If you sole basis is the MO argument. I don’t seem to understand and I believe your math is inaccurate. (taking the 7% percent and subtracting 5% is just not the proper way to figure out the numbers. The 7% (approximate) is the number after calculating population growth x age gap – 4/5%. Just like the 10/11% in the yesivish community is calculated population growth x age gap – 4/5%)
In addition I don’t know if you realize that practically speaking both you and I are looking to encourage more close in age shidduchim. see my ealrier post
BYTW I just got this letter off a different website
In the year ad a half since this letter was first published I have seen a tremendous change in the shidduch scene. Boys (and their parents) are much more willing to do shidduchim with girls their own age or even slightly older. Such readiness to date close in age has the potential to greatly alleviate was has become known as the shidduch crisis.
Mention must also be made of the wonderful NASI Project that is at the forefront of this movement and is committed to close the age gap and thus ease the crisis
Shloime Lewenstein (he is a very well known shadchan in the yeshivish world)
Jothar:
If you read the version that was signed by the American Roshei Yeshiva it clearly makes reference to closer in age, not just past early marriageable age. Clearly the push is to encourage more close in age shidduchim.
PM: You have not responded to my challenges to where your theory falls short. I am very happy to see that we agree on many points. But please explain the your response to my arguments
PM: If the Mo population has a slightly slower growth and slight smaller age gap that translates into 6-7% girls having no shot of ever getting married vs. the yeshvish crowd where it stands at around 10%. I would argue that that’s a very significant pro9blem although not as devastating as by the the yeshivish. Do you feel that 7% of girls never getting married in the MO population is acceptable???
I sent a post explaining on what points PM and I agree and where we disagree. In addition I pointed out where his theory falls short. Should I resend, or was it deleted for some reason??
PM: Regarding the MO populatin. The problem is clearly NOT as acute as in the more yeshivish circles. When I say they have the same problem I do not mean to imply it is as signifcantly out of balance as in the Yeshivish community. The reaseon for this is.
1. The family sizes are not as large hence the population growth not as fast.
2. Their dating is not as structured as in the Yeshivis circles (ALL girls go to sem and then look to get married (19), ALL boys after 3 year bais medrash n US go to EY for 2 years and then back to US Lakewood (22-23 etc.) Thus their average age gap is not as great as in the yeshivis circles and therefore the inequity of numbers is not as great.
However they DO have the same problem.
Chaverim: Please show me once on any thread where I have qouted a Gadol as stating that the various practical ideas discussed in this thread should be implemented.
Perhaps you are referring to my comment about how productive boys are (or are not) in EY. I have never claimed that Roshei Yeshiva are advocating that they cut down their time there. I have put that suggestion out based on where many many boys readily admit they learn better.
What is clear is that the gedolim recognize the seriousness of the situation as well as the cause of the problem.
The ideas presented in this thread are to create discussion as to various possible ways of closing the age gap. Please don’t accuse me of misquoting Great people.
If you feel that the lack of rosheim yeshiva coming out and publicly advocating any of these suggestions is a inferred lack of agreement- that is your opinion. I am just trying to encourage the community to search for effective implementable ways to close the age gap.
If you do not like these suggestions- that’s fine. Please take the time to understand the seriousness of the situation. Let’s together search for what can be done.
To do nothing is NOT an option!
PM:
What we agree on:
1. Boys begin dating a couple at an older age than girls (i think you agree with this point)
2. Being that the boys prefer to date the younger (newer girls) that creates a shidduch crisis for the girls.
3. To alleviate the crisis we need more close in age shidduchim, i.e. we need boys to be willing to date girls their own age, and not only date the new girls.
Our disagreement focuses on why boys (22) dating girls (19) creates a problem; with the resulting difference as to whether encouraging boys to date slightly earlier and girls slightly later will further alleviate the situation (my argument). Or whether that won’t make a difference, and the one thing that could be done is to further enccourage more close in age shidduchim.
Now that we are clear (I think) on this point.
That being said. Your theory that does away with population growth just doesn’t add up.
You suggest that after year 3 we are left with 60 boys and 60 girls from the year 1-3. Lets accept that those 60 girls never get married.
Going forward. years 4-6 we have 300 new girls and 300 new boys plus 60 old boys. In other words we have 360 boys competing for only 300 new girls. If as you suggest that many (50) of the old boys will marry from the 300 new girls. Than there is no way to explaining how after year 6 we would have 60 girls from years 4-6 and 60 boys from years 4-6. Either you would have 60 girls and 110 boys because 50 of the old boys (years 1-3) snatched up from the new girls. Or you would have 60 boys and 10 girls as the 240 new boys plus 50 old boys married the new girls.
In addition:
according to your theory that incoming boys and girls are equal in numbers and the old boys plus the new boys compete for the new girls; than we should have the following phenomena (as I wrote above)
1. New boys should have an increasingly difficult time in shidduchim since they are competing with the leftover older boys (years 1-3 for the new girls).
2. We should have an increasing percentage of boys who do not get married that first year. (year one 80% year two 70% year 3 65% etc. etc.) being that the older boys take many of the newer girls.
3. The new girls should be sitting pretty with the numbers stacked in their favor as all the new boys and the old boys compete for them, and not enough girls to go around.
NONE of these three points exist.
Your theory doesn’t hold up over a peorid of a couple of years. It only explains the intial group. It wouldn’t explain why we have a ongoing (and until NASI) worsening problem.
Perhaps squek or Dr. Pepper could produce a spreadsheet that would explain this theory.
“nearly all the boys who ever marry are married after their third year”
Correct.
Now please explain how if over the course of 3 years, 300 girls have entered the market and three hundred boys. You say that after 3 yrs almost all the boys are married to the girls that entered during those three years but yet many many girl are still left. My math isn’t great. But it would seem that if 280 boys are married than 280 of those 300 girls should also be married.
You can’t have it both ways. All the first year boys getting married and all the second year boys getting married to the same first year girls while maintaining that we continue to have many girls become second year. It just doesn’t add up.
UNLESS there are more first year girls than first year guys.
Chaverim please clarify. Do yow think as PT that there are equal numbers of 30 year old single boys as 30 year old single girls. I think that is a straightforward question.
PT has pretty clearly claimed that the numbers are roughly equal.
Do you agree?
To date I believe PT is the only one in the CR who has taken that postion.
PM Chaverim:
Point #2. According to your suggestion the new boys should have an increasingly difficult time in shidduchim since they are competing with so many second and third year boys for the new girls.
Do you see that happening??
Point #3 According to your suggestion the new girls should be sitting pretty with loads and loads of first second and third year guys interested in only them and not enough girl to go around.
Do you see that happening?
point #4 According to your suggestion we should have an increasing percentage of boys who do not get married that first year. (year one 80% year two 70% year 3 65% etc. etc.)
Do you see that happening?
It is certainly true that boys prefer new girls, and thus encouraging boys to date girls their own age is the way to go even according to your theory. However w/o acknowledging the fact that more girls enter the pool each year the facts on the ground just don’t add.
PM, Chaverim:
If we follow your analysis to it’s logical conclusion. We should have many many older boys, as the new boys are constantly competing with the leftover boys for the new girls. You can’t have both all the new boys and the old boys marrying the same new girls. If as you say, no one wants the leftover girls, then there should be a whole shipload of older boys.
That being said, where are all these older boys.
Unless you claim that at present the are equal numbers of 27 year old unmarried girls and 30 year old unmarried boys.
That claim is preposterous.
PT: allow me to rephrase.
If I am correct, you don’t believe that their are significantly more older girls than older boys. AM I correct?
Chaverim: If I am correct you realize the plight of the girls in shidduchim but you are not convinced (don’t belive) that it is related in any which way to population growth and age gap. AM I correct?
PT: If I am correct you don’t believe that the girls have significantly more difficulty in shidduchim than the boys. AM I correct?
PT: Sounds like you believe that there are roughly equal numbers of older girls and older guys out there.
Sorry PT. You are on the wrong planet.
We can debate causes, We can debate solutions. But if you want to debate whether or not there exists a very significant number of more older single girls than guys ……
unless you are referring to the chassidishe circles
PT: sounds like you are taking the postition that there are rougly the same amount of older girls and guys.
True girls go to shadchanim SOONER than guys. However by the time the guys hit 27,28 – on shidduch island 5 yrs- the shadchanim have by and large heard of them.
Jothar: “The question is your insistence that one who doesn’t do so is meshamed klal yisroel.”
I don’t recall ever having said that or anything resembling such. I have and continue to encourage that we should have more close in age shidduchim than we have had in the past.
What I am saying is we are OBLIGATED to use our saychel and take reasonable actions to prevent and alleviate problems that we find ourselves in. The more serious the problem the more willing we must be to take even somewhat difficult actions.
What constitutes reasonable action? That can be debated and guidance from our leaders is absolutely necessary. I for one don’t think trying to encourage more close in age shiddcuhim is that radical. (throwing the girls in the river is).
My Beliefs:
Yes, I believe HASHEM runs the world.
NO, I don’t believe hashem wants all 23 year olds to date 19 year olds and therefore cause many many girls to be stuck.
Yes, I belive Hashem gives us free choice and the fact the he runs the world doesn’t preclude our ability to mess things up royally by our actions.
Yes, I believe in people being responsible for their actions and to the community.
No, I don’t believe in blaming Hashem for problems that are self created (albeit unwittingly).
Chaverim:
PT: A couple years back an attempt was made to get a handle on the number of older singles out there. It was NOT a scientific study as it is almost impossible to accurate numbers. A somewhat extensive sampling of shadchanim lists yielded the number I presented. It may be somewhat more it may be somewhat less. However it clearly is a huge problem. Do you debate the fact that the girls are having a much more difficult time in shidduchim and that there are far far more older single girls than single guys, OR are you debating the causes.
YW 39: Thank you and I apologize.
Mod: I’ll let you answer the question yourself. With approx 2000 more older single girls than guys where is there baserts?
Last time I checked the concept that everyone married their “bahsert” is not in the Rambam’s 13 principles of faith. The Arizal writes it only applies for boys who get married by 18.
People can have wonderful marriages and raise wonderful families even when they don’t marry their “bashert”. Truth be told “basherte” is not a practically relevant concept since no one will or can ever know whether they are married to their bashert or not.
Not all posts in bold are from Mods. That bold was actually used by the poster them self
YW Moderator-39
Wasn’t there don’t know. How old did boys get married pre war???
For practical puroposes the difference between US the 70’s and 80’s vs the last 10 years is the average family size.
Is someone debating this
Shaatra: No one claims that there didn’t exist some large families years ago. The question is the numbers. I don’t even think there’s a debate that families of 10 kids (in the askenazai non chasidishe community) are much more commonplace now than 25 years ago.
This not so gradual population explosion has been going on for quite some time, which is why in the last 10 yrs the shidduch crisis has reached such proportions. For a more exact mathematical breakdown i leave to the mathematicians.
BP Totty: When you were in elementary school how many friends of yours had 10 siblings?
Nowadays it is quite commonplace. The single greatest factor that has changed in the last fifteen years is family sizes (B”H). That = population growth.
THIS is the reason the problem is so much worse now than it ever was.
HOWEVER, if the only significant age gap marriages (23-19) were from the wealthy 19 yr olds it wouldn’t be such a large problem. There just aren’t that many rich people. What is happening is that to many shidduchim are being redd between 23-19 when the boy could just as easily been redd to a 22 yr old.
Regarding parents who don’t have the means and feel pressured to come up with it. That is the same whether their daughter is 19 or 24. That phenomena would change if the numbers wouldn’t be so skewed. Boys will take what they can get.
PT: “The rest of us have no burden of proof (remember what we said about negative proofs)”
My goal here is not to win arguments. My goal is to raise awareness. Feel free to not bother asking and doing your research. However, if you are interested in helping alleviate the problem you might just choose do speak to them. If you did speak to them I think you might be interested in what they have to say.
Please correct
Harav Chaim Stein shlita
Harav Meir Herskowitz shlita
Harav Aharon Feldman shlita
(Typo)
One need not be a rocket scientist to recognize that population growth plus age gap = a huge problem.
One also not need be a mathematician to recognize that in our schools the younger grades are considerable larger than the older grades.
You seem to disagree with one of the above statement but choose to attack me (i don’t mind) instead of debating the points.
If you feel I haven’t offered compelling arguments to warrant your time to observe whether younger grades are considerably larger than older grades, that is your perogative. However it is obvious in plain sight if you take a peek at any community that is slightly growing.
PT: Have you had a discussion with any of the signers on the letter?
I personally spoke w/ the following signers.
Harav Shmuel Berenbaum Zatal
Harav Yaakov Perlow Shlita
Harav Shmuel Kamenetsky Shlita
Harav Aryeh Malkiel Kotler Shlita
Harav Matisyahu Salomon Shlita
Harav Chaim Stein
Harav Meir Herskowitz
Harav Aharon Feldman
They all readily recognized the age gap issue. What to do about is the big question. The letter at the time was what they felt was an appropriate step. Feel free to ask any of them about it.
Regarding specific suggestions We can definately discuss, but first lets make sure we agree on the problem. Certainly we can’t attempt to solve a problem if we don’t know what the problem is.
Jothar: Are you saying that we should have bitachon and not attempt to do anything about the shidduch crisis-despite our recognizing that age gap is the central factor creating the problem.
I unabashedly admit: Math is not my strong suit, I’m just looking at the basic math from the NASI project.
1. Population growth
2. Age Gap
This is obvious.
The details 3.67% growth per year 4.35 growth per year etc. are not my strong point and I leave that to the people involved with NASI and others (like Mox). Whether we have 8.6% or 11.4% of girls without a chance to have families doesn’t really concern me. EITHER way it is we must do whatever we can to alleviate the situation.
**EDITED** (We have our reasons why we keep deleting that comment. Take the hint already)
PT: Without personal attacks please clarify which points you have difficulty with, or is it the specific suggested solutions.
SJSinNYC: Mox will discuss the specifics of the math. We work together closely and I defer all specific mathnumbers issues to him. (gotta know ones strengths and weaknesses)
ON the money issue. The most effective way to solve the money issue is to alleviate the inequity of numbers. The money is a result of the shiduch crisis (simple law of supply and demand) NOT the cause. If the numbers were equal boys wouldn’t get away with asking/demanding $$$.
As it stands now even if we pushed a magic button and all girls had a million dollars in the bank we would still have the exact same crisis because there are just not enough pants for the skirts.