As for your statement above:

“That the BIGGEST (not only) backlog is a -> b.”

Perhaps, just maybe, possibly, it might part of the reason, why that backlog exists is because of the observation i pointed out above.

I mean it’s not conclusively proven, but maybe just maybe if the number of unmarried guys and girls were relatively equal and the guys didn’t have the upper hand, and thus the guys wouldn’t be able to be so selective, and the shadchanim wouldn’t be so beholden to the guys, etc etc… maybe just maybe that might alleviate and smooth step a->b.

I mean it’s just a guess – some food for thought.

I mean if you have 100 girls and 10 guys and the guys have many many options it’s likely and natural that there will be a backlog from a->b

but as I’ve stated numerous times above, this isn’t a dialogue i’ll have in this forum at this time, it’s just some food for thought.

ubi:

As for your responses to my questions i asked you to ponder, they are not accurate responses as should be self evident, against my better judgement (because they are not nearly as important as the issue i raised in the preceding post.) i’ll provide a resishis preakim….

shouldn’t the number of unpicked girls cause there to be a equal number of guys who thus can’ be married. I mean at the end of the day the “picked” can marry one guy and only one guy. so why are there so many more girls “unpicked” and thus single at age 21 plus -having tried to date 3 years, and yet the number of guys who are single after dating 3 years is far fewer than the corresponding number of “unpicked” girls.

and before you suggest, that’t because the guys keep on going younger, to the new girls, please think it thru…. remember every year there are new guys who would also be looking for those same new girls as well as all the girls 19-21 who are “picked” girls… since all the guys don’t want to date the “unpicked” girls….

ubi:

1. At a almost minuscule age differential their will be a shortage of boys. That is what is happening by the chassidim because they start dating at around the same age.By all means do some research. I explained why at a tiny age differential there will be a reverse crisis in my previous post. I guess you missed it.

2. Comparing the way they date will have absolutely zero effect on how many are left over as DY pointed out to you again and again. His point is the exact point I’ve been making regarding the observation. Without discussing why and how that observation came to be. Only after grasping the significance of the observation can we then analyze how to alleviate it, and of course part of analyzing how to alleviate it will include (but won’t be limited to) understanding how it came about

3. Your analysis of the situation is simply incorrect and it has been explained ad naseum in this forum why it is incorrect. Once you agree that there are far more guys in the dating pool than girls (without getting into why that is so and how it came about and if this is a relatively new phenomena or not) then it is obvious that girls at all ages will have difficulty getting dates. However i won’t begin to discuss that point which is simply a result of the observation until you fully grasp the significant of the observation.

I may be incorrect, but it appears to me from your posts that yo don’t grasp the significance of the observation.

Here’s a question for you to ponder:

girls age 19/20/21 should be easily able to date guys age 22/23/24. You would surely agree that the guys age 22/23/24 are not dating girls who are 30 years old. So if I may ask, how is it, that the number of guys who start dating at 22 and are still single post 24 is far fewer than the girls who started dating at 19 and are still single at post 21. I mean the girls 19/20/21 could date guys not just 22-24 but they could in theory date guys even 25/26/27 ????

Here’s another question for you to ponder: you correctly state that in theory 30 year old guys can marry 23 year old girls (for example) but certainly the 30 year olds should have very very stiff competition from all the 24/25/26 year old guys who are vying for those same 23 year old girls??????

It is true that once a girl is (pick a age lets say 30) the pool of available guys is diminished, but why should she ever reach that age single, after all when she was 23 she had all the guys age 23-30 whom she could date?????

ubi: you are focusing on the dating process which is of course a pre-requisite to getting married, but without pondering the wide reaching implications of the observation i noted in my first post- it is basically a effort in futility as DY has pointed out a few times.

Finally- in answer to your question. YES, of course girls of all ages are having difficulty getting dates. Just like in my example of 100 girls and 10 guys, and each guy dates on average 10 girls before he gets married. The guys will be getting 10x’s as many dates as the girls. We could make it a very efficient process or we could have a inefficient process, but the relative ratio and frequency of dates for the girls won’t change. A more efficient process will simply be the equal of a game of muscial chairs and having the music play faster. As DY point out to you, adjusting the dating process to make it more efficient will in no way change the observation.

(Actually it will have a minor effect on the observation because a more efficient process will mean guys would get married a bit younger which in turn will have a effect on the observation but i don’t think that is what you were looking to hear.)

If each guy were to date on average 6 girl before he get married, then on average each girl would get 6 dates. of course it is possible and highly likely that the dates wouldn’t be divided equally among the girls. Some girls might get a chance to date all 10 guys, some girls might only date 2 guys. We could invest ourselves in trying to adjust the system to divide the dates equally among all the girls, but as i’m sure you realize, the net effect wold not result in any more than 10 of the girls getting married.

Please indicate it are there any other questions that i have refrained from answering.

ubiq:

you write:

“AZ, unsure but it is irrelevant.”

Irrelevant, wow that is interesting. sure seems relevant to me. I guess there is not much left to discuss. I will leave you to work on what you define as the crisis. As I pointed out earlier, in your perception, if there are 10 guys and 100 girls and each guy dates on average 10 girls before he gets engaged, then there is no problem because all girls are likely to get a equal number of dates. And if we create a really effective and efficient dating system,then we can arrange for these 100 dates and 10 engagements to happen very quickly so that instead of it being 5 years until 10 guys get married to 10 girls, and 90 girls get left out, we could accomplish that all in a matter of a few months. And you will sleep peacefully at night knowing that all the girls got one date in a efficient system.

Good luck in your efforts, i will continue to support the efforts to work on alleviating the crisis as per the definition i provided above. Because i won’t sleep well at night knowing that 90 girls are now without a match.

As for chassidim. in their community it is NOT true that the number of men between the ages of 30-38 who are unmarried far exceeds the number of women between the ages of 27-35 who are unmarried. Why that is so, we can discuss. The explanation is actually very simple, but until you develop a firm opinion to the statement i raised earlier, there isn’t much to discuss.

As far as I see it, the goal isn’t to get girls dates, nor is it to get girls married before the age of 23 (or whatever age you pick). Those would of course be nice things to accomplish, but that isn’t what the crisis is and thus that isn’t what needs to be accomplished.

Golfer: I would encourage you to research the efforts of the NASI Project over the past 6 years. I think you might find they have been mightily effective at promoting exactly what you suggest. If you have other ways to encourage close in age shidduchim of being redt by shadhcanim enmasse, i’m sure the OP would be happy to hear.

oh, one more question: how many the girls in your graduating class had 7 siblings. How many families in your community where you were growing up had 10 kids in the family.

ubiquitin:

you have chosen to define the crisis in terms of frequency by which girls get dates.

suppose:

1. you have 10 guys and 100 girls.

2. each guy dates on average 10 girls before he gets married.

Will each girl get a date- probably

Is there a shidduch crisis in this theoretical situation????

The definition of the crisis is NOT the difficulty girls have in getting dates, nor in the relative frequency of their dates. That may perhaps be a by product of the crisis.

The DEFINITION of the crisis is that after 5/10 years of dating the numbers of unmarried men pale in comparison to the numbers of unmarried women.

THAT is what is referred to when people discuss the shidduch crisis.

(I have not even offered a suggestion how that comes to be, i have simply accepted a specific observation and used that observation as the definition of the crisis. (yes i know that in a earlier post i said i wouldn’t do this- but i did)

Anyone if free to

a) deny the observation- thought that might the equivalent of denying the reality similar to ba harug biraglav.

b) offer explanation how that reality came and continues to come about

c) offer suggestions how to alleviate that reality, which was the intention of the OP.

(side note: if one accepts that observation/reality, even if they disagree with how/or why that reality comes about, closing the age gap will help to alleviate and adjust that reality.)

uneeq:

I think you might want to speak to Rav Shteinman Rav Chaim Kanievsky Rav Gershon Edelstein Rav Shmuel Aurebach and the tens of other Gedolim and R”Y who are on that two page spread about the “nonsense” they are so concerned about.

I can assure you my name doesn’t appear there nor did i write anything that it says there.

Health:

I addressed a comment you made which was both incorrect as well as a inaccurate representation of the age gap problem. I did not address anything you wrote on any other thread.

Notasheep: at the risk of repeating the same idea as nasuem. If there are 2200 girls and 2000 boys, then it don’t matter how much info one has before they date. They could even agree to marry w/o meeting- you can still be assured that 200 will be unpaired.

Please explain how finding out info prior to dating changes the 2200/2000 equation. Unless you simply don’t believe that equation.

“If you claim the program paid all the monies owed from the original program,”

Did i make such a claim??

i think in this very forum i wrote that there are many claims that are still outstanding. That program is and was subject to funds availability (and it’s the reason why all the new programs are funded by the communities. I assume you don’t expect the program to steal money that was given and earmarked on behalf of a specific community program in order to payback for that original program.) If/when funds are available they will continue to pay back from that original program.

Did i write anything different???

What i wrote was that over 130k was given out in that program. Feel free to contact the project to verify that information.

Suggestion #1 eman: before you level accusations, make sure you have your info correct.

Suggestion #2 eman: Since you obviously care so deeply about those shadchanim who haven’t received payment for that program, perhaps you would like to fundraise the money to cover the rest of those shidduchim. I’m sure the program would be happy to take you up on your offer, and they will gladly pay out to those shadchanim (since they still have all the information on file).

MSS:

Correction:

Mazal Tov

76

and hopefully this will suffice for updates in this forum.

MSS:

hope this satisfies you.

1. There are programs running in the following communities. Montreal, Toronto, Lakewood, Far Rockaway/Lawrence, Baltimore, Monsey, Kew Gardens. These are the 100/400 programs. These were what were referenced in the ads this week and last. These programs started first in Montreal well over two years ago. They have been spreading to other communities.

The numbers in the ad are not correct. After all they are from two weeks ago. As of this post there are 75 engagements via those programs. The young women are not “enrolled” they are community based and cover all the young women from a participating community, and probably have no idea that NASI was involved

2. The program that you seem to be hung up on is a minor part of the orgs efforts. 98% of what they have done is on the macro level. That specific program is the only program that actually empowers young women to give themselves a opportunity to try to get extra shadchan attention. That opportunity comes at zero cost with a money back guarantee. If they choose to leave after the join, they may do so and every penny in return, if they get engaged not via a participating shadchan, they receive every penny in return.

That program has generated over 100 different dates. 9 of the participants have gotten engaged. Not a single one via a participating shadchan and thus each of the engaged young women have received in return every penny they put in deposit-as per the contract. There have been a few participant who have joined and then decided that the program wasn’t generating them extra attention and choose to withdraw, and they too received every penny in return as per the contract.

If you have more questions-feel free to contact the organization directly.

I think we all can agree that this isn’t the forum for more details.

Shmoel- Tragically correct. The sooner the “oilam” is awakened from their slumber, the sooner the solutions will be able to be implemented.

Solutions, no matter how simple and how effective they might be, they can not be implemented against the will of the people. When the “oilam” asks for them to be imlemented, they will

but not a day before.

Part of the difficulty in bringing the :oilam” on board, is that they confuse the micro with the macro.

Everyone who knows a older single girls (or 30 of them) thinks they can point to each one and say. “This is why she is single or that is why she is single.”

“If she would have done or been more x y or z, then she would’ve been married”

and they have “proof” “look, she dated x amount of guys, so obviously she had her chances”

This perception is commonplace amongst parents, shadchanim, mentors etc. Their connection to the shidduch scene is on the individual level.

What they don’t grasp, is that even if everyone one of the older singles they know would have married the first guy they dated we would still have just as many older single young women, it would just be different ones who are single.

All the reasons in the world why a specific young woman is still single can perhaps (and usually not) explain why she is part of the unlucky 10%, but they do nothing to explain nor alleviate why we find ourselves with the tragic reality of around 10% remaining single.

As for people like Shalom, all i can say is the facts on the ground indicate otherwise. Most any normal frum 29 year old single guy has a opportunity to date 2 girls each night of the week. You write that you are 29 and having dated in 6 months. something sounds fishy….

Are their boys who are single after dating 5 years. Of course. That was discussed as well in the article I posted.

With regards to your comment about the NASI org, it is incorrect.

This following article appeared in numerous nationwide publications:

If i was asked to give it a title i would call it

Age Gap for Dummies

here goes…

Shidduch Crisis- Explained

Recently there has been some discussion and request to lay out the hard facts of the shidduch crisis. Here they are:

Definition of the problem:

The number of Orthodox non-chassidishe young women who have been dating five years or longer and are still single is greater – by the thousands – than the number of Orthodox non-chassidise young men who have been dating five years or longer.

That single statement defines the shidduch crisis.

It is difficult, if not impossible, to perform an accurate head count for numerous reasons, and there might be some people who would thus choose to be in denial about the above statement.

However, conversations with people involved in shidduchim, ranging from shadchanim and roshei yeshiva to principals and those running frum dating sites, indicate that the above statement is painfully and tragically true.

Unfortunately, it is painfully obvious that they simply don’t exist in mass numbers. Of course, there are some young men who have been dating for more than five years and are still single, but the number of such young men is miniscule when compared to the number of young women in that category.

So those are facts.

But it tragically is.

Is there anyone out there who denies this reality?

Anyone?

Having established clearly that in our communities we find the sad situation of the number of young women who have dated 5+ years and are still single outnumbers the young men who have dated 5+ years and are single by the thousands the question that begs to be asked is

HOW COULD THIS POSSIBLY BE.

Are there hundreds of more girls born every year than boys?

Do hundreds of boys die before they reach shidduch age?

Do hundreds more boys than girls off the derech never to return and marry within the community?

The answer is no no and no.

So how could it be?

The answer is as follows.

Step one:

Yes or No

Even if every girl is poor, not pretty etc, there is simply no way for more boys on the island to get married than girls.

Step two:

If on that island at the beginning of the year instead of 100 girls and 100 boys, we place 150 girls and 100 boys,

How many girls will FOR SURE be unmarried at the end of the year?

Obviously 50

If some of the guys choose not to get married, then for every unmarried guy, there will be another unmarried girl. If 20 guys are still single then 70 girls will be single.

But no matter what, 50 girls will NOT get married.

Even if every girl is rich, pretty with personality and every other silly thing that is perhaps valued in shidduchim, a minimum of 50 are NOT getting married.

Step 3:

Which grade is larger counting both boys and girls

Kindergarten or 3rd grade

Which grade is larger, 5th grade or 9th grade.

5th for the same reason as above

Which is larger 9th grade or 12th grade,

5th for the same reason as above

We have now established that the younger grades of both boys and girls is far larger than the older grades.

But how does that create the shidduch tragedy?

Step 4:

At what age do boys-non chasiddishe- (in the US) start shidduchim 22/23

So if in the year 2012 every girl on her 19th birthday gets a passport to Shidduch Island and every boy in 2012 on his 23 birthday get a passport to shidduch island,

Question: in 2012 on shidduch island are the number of girl/boys who come onto the island the same or are there more of one gender.

Hopefully by now every reader understands, that there are more young wome entering shidduch island. MANY more.

Well next year a who new shipment of boys come to shidduch island, but a whole new shipment of girls comes as well, and once again the new girls outnumber the new boys by a few hundred each new year.

Disclaimer: the numbers 100 young men/150 young women were illustrative only. In reality, it is approximately 2200 young women entering shidduch island each year and 2000 young men.

This dear reader is what has been ongoing in our community year after year after year for way to long, with somewhere in the vicinity of 200 girls per returning from seminary – condemned to never get married.

But this is only the beginning.

Can you even begin to imagine the sheer terror of a young woman and her family when she realizes her current situation in life.

Which girls will be the unlucky 200 from 2012? No one knows. Certainly many silly factors play into which girls perhaps have a better chance to be from the lucky 2000 instead of the tragic 200. But all those factors simply determine which girls will be sacrificed they don’t change at all how many.

I think now we can agree that it is high time our community took this issue seriously- VERY seriously.

The good news is that there is a real viable and implementable solution to this problem. It has the capability to greatly eradicate the problem going forward that no young women coming home from seminary should suffer what their older sisters/neighbors/relatives have and continue to. In addition it will afford many new shidduch opportunities to large numbers of the young women who have been dating for quite a few years and are still single.

All that is needed to make it happen is an iron clad commitment on the part of the community to get it done. We need a sense of urgency to insist that we will no longer allow our daughters to suffer.

Baruch Hashem, recently there has been a awakening in the community as more people have begun to give this issue the importance that it requires. YES there IS a light at the end of the tunnel.

Unfortunately we haven’t reached the point that the hamon am is on board and determined to change the current situation.

When we do we will save thousands of girls.

Popa:

are you insuating that it is only I, who am ???? ??? ????? over the terrible shidduch situation??

I assume your intention is not to be mikatreig on the community as a whole. ?? ?????

Please clarify

With NASI- B”H very well. Much much progress has been made in many areads and a real implementable solution is in sight and in reach.

New Program-No

I apologize if you and MSS didn’t understand what I wrote about SYAS. Clearly one needs to understand the AGE GAP concept in order to understand that line.

mod 42-

“I heard from a “3rd party” quoting the Business Halacha institute that since El Al is run by non-frum Jews there is less of an issue of Ta’us Yisroel. V’tzarich iyun.”

This is not correct. No one with permission to speak on behalf of that org said such a thing. (i looked into it and spoke to the Dean of the org).

Zahavasdas:

thank you

Chulent: The alleged psak at the asifa allowed for internet at the place of work for Business purposes only. It’s a fair assumption that your posting on YWCR doesn’t facilitate your parnassah.

As such i’m quite sure we will no longer be hearing from you.

Adios

(i guess Rav Matisyahu and others didn’t hear him as well as you did, or else don’t feel so bound by his psak. Tune in to next sunday’s asifa in flatbush. It will sing a different song. A tune that WILL be accepted by those who hear it. A tune that was heard by 150 Rabbonim the day after the asifa.

What a shame it won’t be the same alfei rivvivos yisroel…)

and now if i may qoute one of the organizers of the event

“it was a disaster”

I rest my case.

Let’s move forward…

Golfer:

Maybe ask said organizer how he felt when i contacted him months before and encouraged him, told him to ingore the naysayers and offered (and did) help him in anyway possible.

He actually thanked me profusely and told me he got chills when i elucidated what i thought their message was.

Anyone who knows me will easily attest that this is a issue close to my heart and one that i have invested much time and energy on and Rav Wacsman is someone whom i am very very close to and was so positive he would deliver a no doubt about it take home message to galvanize Rov Minyan and Binyan of Klal Yisroel.

It is EXACTLY and PRECISELY for this reason that i was devastated by what DID take place instead of what COULD’VE and SHOULD’VE taken place.

I have and continue to be in touch with said organzier (via email). When he claimed that it wasn’t as big a failure as i made it out to be because a few thousand ppl got filteres, i explained to him that a few thouand out of half a million is a epic failure.

that being said the term “laughed in his face” was NOT appropriate (it also wasn’t true because we communicated via email, not phone).

So while i have the utmost respect for the people who started the movement (and I feel terrible that their mission was hijacked) and I will (and have) done anything i can to facilitate and encourage the realization of widespread and sociall expectations of having internet protected devices, at the same time i will not simply kow tow to power plays.

Cholent:

Please don’t confuse people who were dissatifed with the asifa, (of which there are many) with people who encourage unfiltered internet and permit doing anything and everything online of which we reasonably assume there are few (with regards to the last clause really mean none).

If only that would’ve been the clear take home message from the asifa it would’ve been a gold mine, instead we received confusing conflicting messages.

(side point: i can’t figure out how you are on this forum if you accepted the psak of the event but i’m sure you and avhaben have the heter from Rav Wosner.)

But that’s behind us.

let’s move forward and tackle this problem in the manner that it seems the vast majority of people are willing able and can do.

Establish a concept of insisting on proper protection for any and all devices we use.

Definition of proper protection?

That of course depends on the individual their community their environment. Etc.

and thus the need for proper guidance on the local level.

Is anything i’m suggesting so radical and out of line?

Av Haben: No need. Rav Matisyahu himself spoke publicly since the asifa and DID not support the “psak” that was relayed at the asifa.

AZ: they will be saying that which had been the plan all along…..

Internet is here to stay- period. we need to learn how to use it effectively and responsibly.

My guess is there they’ll say that totally unprotectected internet is simply not acceptable in our community.

Exact specifics kinds and levels of protection is something that depends on a case by case basis of a Rov/Mentor in conjunciton with a qualified technician.

Wolf: could you agree with that message?

Devices with WiFi capabilities will circumvent any internet connection/router based protection (such as Yeshiva Net).

Disabling the wifi would solve this problem for those who do not need the wifi capability, or at leaset on the devices that don’t need such capability.

Devices with wifi would require software on each individual device to ensure proper protection.

This is my limitied knowledge.

For more effective guidance contact TAG (Technology Awareness Group) at

718 437 1TAG

718 437 1824

I don’t think they charge.

(i am not part of TAG, but i do know the name of one of the people inolved).

I posted on a seperate thread a link to a extensive booklet that provides detailed guidance solutions and empowerment for dealing with this issue.

most of the debate here will be null and void after reading the booklet as it has information for everyone.

I don’t think to many people will read the content and say they knew all that already, nor will they say it didnd’t help them.

Writer:

Is that all it is, nope.

Is age gap the biggest baddest part of the problem AND – by far – the MOST solvable,

you betcha

YW-42

not unless you rig it to be age gap freindly.

thought you understood that already.