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February 3, 2021 11:18 am at 11:18 am in reply to: Biden announces restoration of U.S. relations and aid to Palestinians #1944959Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipant
>> Pogroms in Poland
According to Wiki, President Wilson sent the commission to help clear up Jewish-Polish relations in order to strengthen Polish role against Soviets. At the same time, both Germany and USSR spent remaining time until they started WW2 accusing all newly created Eastern European countries of oppressing minorities (Jews, Germans, Russians, and others) – while totally destroying Jewish communities themselves. With that perspective, Morgenthau Sr performed great
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipant>> but Biden would have done that [Embassy] too
Charlie, it is ironic that you – “with evidence” – accuse others of coming up with unfounded theories, and immediately post seemingly deluded ideas (“without evidence”). If you reflect on that a little, maybe you’ll become more understanding of others who do the same.
February 2, 2021 12:59 pm at 12:59 pm in reply to: Media “explains/justifies” Israeli law enforcement only when.. #1944663Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantJews are always in the spotlight. There is nothing new here.
Hashem wants the Jews to be an example to other nations. So, just act appropriately and enjoy the spotlight.Rav Salanter, I think, said that apikoires in Paris is due to insufficient diligence in the Litivishe yeshiva. I don’t know how he’ll respond to current situation
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipant>> I’d love to have the ability
Try starting a business? and, then, daven for it to succeed. Or, just hire the cousins.
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantUSPS?
How about Amazon One Hour delivery? You can drink and order same day. I know this clashes with another thread.February 1, 2021 8:22 pm at 8:22 pm in reply to: why is there such a cover up about these problems? #1944487Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantMy Gemorah suggests using stones
February 1, 2021 8:22 pm at 8:22 pm in reply to: Media “explains/justifies” Israeli law enforcement only when.. #1944486Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipant>> why he does not ask about Al-Aqsa,
Do you tremble (haredi) about the next Yom Ki Purim:
ashamnu?! bagadnu?! gazalnu?! look what the OTHER guy did FIRSTAlways_Ask_QuestionsParticipantHow do you know Haman from Mordechai if they are both in a mask?!
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantAs I referred above, I hope you still have 2 friends around you, then USPS for your remote relatives does not deter you from the mitzvah, and spend the rest on people who need help.
This is a great year to learn your priorities and separate d’Oraitos from heimishe minhagim. And learning to be meikil. If you learned in a yeshiva where they only teach the easy way – how to be machmir, you may want to call them and demand a free class on who to be meikil.
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantInternet is (so far) not censored in US of A. Trump and anyone else are able to create a website or maybe even a mailing list. The fact that the country depends on Twitter to focus voter attention is sad.
February 1, 2021 8:19 pm at 8:19 pm in reply to: Biden announces restoration of U.S. relations and aid to Palestinians #1944482Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipant>> pulling back the same wonderful cabinet
there is a p0ositive here: if they have some wisdom, they know what did not work! They might first use “lessons learned” in how to fight their biggest enemy – Republicans, but BEzrat Hashem, they also see positive changes in foreign policy. Other than position on Iran, they seem to indicate that they’ll keep many of successful Trump’s policy, adding more “cooperation” to enhance taste – pressing Germany on Russian pipelines, tariffs on China, (real) defense restructuring towards Asia
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipant>> shaloch manos.
R Schechter reminded that this is a good year to follow Rambam on spending more on poor than on friends
January 31, 2021 10:33 pm at 10:33 pm in reply to: Dozens of Yeshivos and day schools across the United States have closed down #1944126Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipant>> Sponsored content is NOT news
Are Jews allowed to post non-truths as advertisement? Is there a “puffery” exemption in halakhah?!
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantasme person posted:
>> 1 half of 1 % of Rav Chaim knowledge
>> each of the Rabbonim who where nifter were well into the 90sI am not sure how you can at the same time value opinions of Talmidei Hahamim and disregard their lives. I can’t imagine who are people surrounding Talmidei Hahamim that lead to this. I can’t imagine R Twersky ZT’L being not careful himself.
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantCharlie, you are right. Another observation – US and UK are ahead of EU due to earlier pre-payments. A couple of factories in Europe have production problems, while US & UK are working fine. EU is trying to force companies to send UK vaccines to EU. One of the explanations – earlier payments allowed more time to fix manufacturing problems.
January 31, 2021 1:28 am at 1:28 am in reply to: Dozens of Yeshivos and day schools across the United States have closed down #1943855Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipant@Sam,
I think Hashem is telling us that we are taking too much for granted our days, and we should spend some time inside with our families, learn to appreciate them, talk to your spouses and kids, take them for walks, learn with them, model for them how to act calmly in difficult circumstances. This might be a first serious adverse event in this country after WW2. Several generations expecting daily great service.I agree that many are not hearing the message and complaining about the service – schools are not opening, governor does not allow seudas mitzva, scientists are not clear about vaccine efficiency …
January 28, 2021 9:00 pm at 9:00 pm in reply to: Dozens of Yeshivos and day schools across the United States have closed down #1943507Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantI still do not get it: why is everyone so much against doing mitzva of teaching their own children on their own, or in small groups? You davka need to cram thousands of kids in one building, exponentially increasing pandemic propagation in your own community?
Get 5 families together, and one of parents, or a hired person, could teach the group in one of your apartments. You have seforim, internet, food, electricity – you are in better conditions than Volozhin yeshiva was
Start discussing how to organize teaching – for those who can do it, rather than lamenting the situation. You can not daven for help if you are not doing your part.
January 28, 2021 1:02 am at 1:02 am in reply to: Biden announces restoration of U.S. relations and aid to Palestinians #1943255Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantIn other news, Mr. Biden
– reversed Suleimani assassination as unlawful with the help of a mekubal
– restored diplomatic relations with ISIS and send an ambassador to Raqqah. The embassy is under construction given the disaster that previous administration “literally left us nothing and nobody to work with at Raqqah”.
– the new ambassador will not refer to IS as “Islamic” though. We did not decide yet what the new meaning of “IS” is
– all progressive House members are told that they’ll be send as an ambassador to Raqqah if they do not behave
–
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantmaybe not for home tests, but there are also batch tests that amkes testing much cheaper. You combine multiple people’s specimen together and dig further only if at least one is positive. Chinese use that and FDA finally approved some recently
January 27, 2021 6:06 pm at 6:06 pm in reply to: Is being “eco-friendly” a value that means something to you? #1943130Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantI recall Melech David was asked whether he prefers a natural disaster – pandemic, climate change, or the war. He preferred the natural punishment as there is no limit to human cruelty once it is unleashed.
20th century illustrates it well with two WWs, communists and Nazis. There were lots of “useful idiots” in USA and Western Europe who would protest every Western action against Commies, but not other way around ….
I don’t think anything changed much – if we can decrease advances of Russia/China/Iran/Norks and leave more dirty air to our children, that’s Ok. So, if we can have Canadian oil instead of Russian, this is OK. If you want to reduce pollution in a smart way, you can, for exanple, put a tariff on everything China is producing using energy from dirty coal and slave labor in North Korea. Just keep your priorities straight.
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantRebE, thanks for the explanation, a gut vort
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipant>> Mathematically impossible?
what 3×3 meant to say – “statistically impossible”
the reason for this misconception – you can come up with 1000s of different patterns which counties are important – since 1980, or maybe since 1890, or 1089 – and then focus on the pattern where current election is “statistically impossible”
a better way is to fix prediction rules before the election and then check them after.
another way is to construct multiple predictions and then use machine learning and cluster analysis to see if this one is different from others
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantREbE >> There is a minhag to put out for shabbos bread crumbs for the birds
this is a nice minhag, but looks like we are emulating Dasan & Aviram?! Hope you did not mean the way political arguments are happening here …
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantCharlie >> The exception was Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, who took 16 weeks, but that didn’t matter
Of note, Lighthizer was involved in very significant activities re: China, but it’s ok by you
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantse2015 >> your cynicism about Biden
my cynicism about him? I am talking about HIS cynicism about us!
pretending everything went wrong before to then claim the success that is already trending. This is on par with “killing parents and asking mercy as an orphan”. I am not saying they have nothing to do – there is a lot – but they are starting every conversation with denigrating previous team. If they do it when data is obvious, I am afraid what other things they might distort later on.
Just to make sure we understand current trends:
US daily vaccine administrated is above 1 mln for 2 weeks already.
this week – last 3 days at 1.4 mln average (possibly Pfizer started counting 20% extra though)
moving average – 30% increase weekly
US administered 2.5x times more than EU – and 1/3 of the whole world vaccines
EU has urgent meetings with both of their only providers who have production problems and sold early batches to others .. US does not so farAlways_Ask_QuestionsParticipantse2015,
First good news – Mr Biden read this thread and raised his target to 1.5 mln!re: To maintain that pace, you’d have to ..
this is an opposite case: production is increasing, not decreasing. Do they not teach time series and linear correlations in yeshivot any more?!
Clarifying re:Fauci – indeed, he debunked anonymously sourced Dem story that there were “no plans”. But it is still being quoted by liberal outlets. An example of lashon hara and difficulty of taking it back ..
January 25, 2021 8:50 pm at 8:50 pm in reply to: Supreme Court Dismisses Case Creating a Laughter #1942438Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantindeed, strange, why is it “moot”
not knowing anything about it, my guess is either:
1) court just wants to get rid of this craziness2) it is a political issue:
what is the punishment for the emulents? prison? probably, not. Impeachment?so, Court thinks that any extra impeachment is … moot … tiyuvta Pelosi tiyuvta
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantse2015 >> manufacturing 4.5 million doses a week at close to max capacity,
Again, companies signed up for deliveries. It is complicated, multiple subs are involved. They may under-deliver if something bad happens, of course. The point we were discussing that all of this was prepared by the previous administration (that covered more riskier earlier steps – funding multiple vaccines and manufacturing processes) – and there is no reason for the current guys to lie that they “were given no plans”.
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipant>> greater commitment and awareness in the fight against terrorism
While, I think it is arguable where and when we need to send troops in, a good joke going around the internets:
<b> Biden To Reestablish Diplomatic Relations With ISIS </b>
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipant>> President Biden appointed Dr.
so, not Amen, not Awomen? Aperson?
I would stick with the “doctor”, hope the mother is happy.
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantse2015> it’s not just a question of math… having to cancel appointments
I agree it is a complicated operation. Still, previous admin was able to get it from 0 to current state. You are saying current admin doesn’t think it could improve on it and want to blame it “on lack of coordination” before them … maybe they should keep Op Warp speed people in, including Jared, and help them going forward.
Re: horror of cancelled appointments. This country forgot how to deal with scarcities. Everything requires online registration and an appointment 2 weeks in advance. Maybe Hashem is reminding us that we are not always in control
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantjackk: said that Trump did x but we want to be more aggressive and try to do x+x
of course. What bothers me here is that it is
(1) seemingly an intentional lie – this is straight numbers, not what “is” is
(2) there is even no good political reason for this lie.as to “x + x”, I am all for all good ideas.
in this particular case, this is not even an increase in what is already done. If we are trying to scare the virus by political rhetoric, it may bit work well.Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipanthuju, the full quote is below. I am not sure what the relevance here is, are you trying to say that this is super-offensive? You are illustating my point …
All I am sayin’ is that if candidates who say such things (in private) are deemed unacceptable to the newsmakers, then Republicans have a choice – run someone like Trump who will fight, or not bother to run for elections at all.There are 47 percent of the people who will vote for the president no matter what. All right, there are 47 percent who are with him, who are dependent upon government, who believe that they are victims, who believe the government has a responsibility to care for them, who believe that they are entitled to health care, to food, to housing, to you-name-it. That that’s an entitlement. And the government should give it to them. And they will vote for this president no matter what…These are people who pay no income tax.
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantok, I fell behind the news cycle. NYT already found experts that did math right and confirmed that we are doing 1.1 mln shots a day and the 1 mln goal is not ambitious enough. Mr. Biden himself responded to such question – “when I declared it first, you called it impossible” – confirming that the previous administration achieved the seemingly impossible.
Anyway, I am still waiting – with interest – any of the Biden voters to comment on his oscillation between cynically denigrating previous administration for no reason and praising it, without realizing it.
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantGH: Had he taken the advice …
As you are sympathetic to liberal views, it may be hard for you to appreciate how the other half of the country feels when most of information space is filled & controlled by the other side. People like Mitt Romney ran as a gentleman and had all possible qualifications to be a President. He was laughed of both for being cruel to his dog and for claiming that Russia is our worst enemy. So, those who are opposed to creeping progressivism, had to go for someone different. If you were to vote for Romney, you might not have gotten Trump.
I would compare Trump to Yiftach. He has qualities needed in this generations, and he is also limited by them.
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantTo follow up, today I heard Biden’s PR person doing math in public, clarifying their thinking:
previous administration shot XX vaccines in 30 days, that comes to 500K per day. This is TOO LOW, not enough. We are going to change everything and drastically increase it to 1 mln per daythis, of course, ignores that 500k per day for previous month consists of 0 at the beginning and about 1 mln at the end for the last week + … And that increasing by a factor of 2 when everything is still being worked out is not that drastic. Going from 0 to 1 mln was harder.
The fact that they need to look for such ways to kick down previous efforts is sad.
The fact that nobody knows math to see through this garbage is also sad.January 21, 2021 5:51 pm at 5:51 pm in reply to: Explain why you were sure Trump would get a second term even after the election. #1941303Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantYou guys from 2 different neighborhoods remind me of that Manhattan lady who was surprised that Nixon was elected – “I don’t know ANYONE who voted for him”. You both need to get out more (in a mask) or at least browse.
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantThere might be a fundamental reason why we are having more and more of “not my” presidents – federal overreach. We now have feds deciding where to dig for oil, protect birds, minimal wage, etc. I am omitting mandating masks and injecting vaccines, as this has some emergency justification.
So, if the feds decide all these issues, then, naturally, about 50% of the people will not be happy. If we were to return decision powers to states, then you can decide to follow your favorite policies by simply moving from New Jersey to Alabama or other way around. The stakes of presidential elections will diminish to several manageable issues and nobody will be forced to live according to rules they do not agree with.
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantujm: my comment with statistics was a response to the previous
exactly, and we are polluting internets with these numbers for no reason. And the question you asked is a good one. With all these very noisy numbers, better to look at more numbers and look at robust statistics, such as order, rather than at direct numbers.
So, overall Israel is 56 out of 200+ countries in death rates. Lebanon is 71, Jordan is 62, Turkey 76. Not that far. European and other random countries of similar to Israel economic condition: Greece 49, Spain 17, Poland 32, Germany 45, Serbia 61, Argentina 25. I would say Israel is on average same as peers. And note that poor and non-free countries probably undercount COVID deaths.
If you have time, look at these statistics separately by month. You will probably see countries jumping up and down the list over time. Virus attacks very unevenly. Recall all these Sweden success stories (N 23 total).
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantujm, I asked another poster, and I would like to ask you. I am really interested in an answer:
what is the point of quoting statistics out of context?
you can say – Israel is Mth out of N comparable countries, that would give us an idea. You just pick countries from the list with lower numbers. Is Norway comparable to Israel? how big are their school classes? When readers see abuse of statistics they would either (a) skip it with no comment, (b) believe of opposite of what you are trying to proof, as your arguments are not convincing.Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantDY: whether to prioritize minorities in theory
again, define “prioritize” –
1) put some extra vaccine stations in poor neighborhood to facilitate access?
or is it: 2) do not vaccinate Whites until all Blacks (of certain age) are vaccinated?
there is a difference here.
It looked like some states tried to go for option (2) at the beginning, under an euphemism of “essential workers” but are now switching gears to a more balanced approachJanuary 19, 2021 7:54 pm at 7:54 pm in reply to: Frum Man Has “Credible Information” That Trump Will Remain President #1940411Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantOrechDin> pandemic came under the leadership
Could you make your argument worth reading? Say, compare Trump’s results with Canada, or UK or EU on all these different parameters. It is really sad that we are arguing like that.
What is your goal? You obviously will only make the opposite side to stick with their opinion seeing that you have no argument. Are you a Republican plant here?!
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantCharlie, Daas,
you are discussing as if there is perfect data to decide what is better and there is a perfect way to implement a policy. We are dealing with already too much delays due to complex rules. I am pointing you to a Gemora discussing water allocation along the river – we allow the first one to get more water “le darkei shalom” instead of creating an army of inspectors to maximize fairness.Simplify and you will get less angry people in the street. Use the age, and then add a reasonable number of field offices in underprivileged areas. This is already done for testing. All “free testing” sites I heard of are in the poor areas.
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantWe get to be careful when we are agreeing to the word “prioritizing” – it might mean encouraging/making more available OR it might mean cutting off other people.
It sounds like a positive word – who would not want to “prioritize” someone disadvantage, and then the government person who is afraid of being blamed will simply not vaccinate anyone until he found everyone in the previous group, registered them, convinced everyone who does not want to take a vaccine.
Also, when they give you a nice-sounding list of priorities, they might interpret it as each item in the list is a hard priority before next. So, “medical, essential, elderly” might be interpreted as every last admin in the hospital first, then every last college admin, before they give it to anyone over 80….
We need lawyers to talk to our own governmentAlways_Ask_QuestionsParticipantGH, 20/20 hindsight is dangerous: you have no control group to compare and you get an increasingly high opinion of yourself, like you are gadol in something. Better make brave prediction in real time and later verify whether you are right or not. This is what Rambam recommends for verifying naviim, so should work for Gedolim also. Not sure, whether you made previous predictions on this board. If you did, tell us what is your betting average.
As to distribution, do you agree that we are already on target to 100 mln doses at current rate, and maybe even 100 mln people (some 2nd dose) with continuing natural improvement?
At the same time, maybe there is a place for the Feds/DoD – just open emergency clinics that will take people on come-in basis – older than 65? have SSN? get a shot. More than 100 people in the line – go home – instead of requiring online registration and sign-ups.
January 18, 2021 7:56 pm at 7:56 pm in reply to: The Eldest Oyster: Herd Immunity vs. Herd Mentality #1940056Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantI think that if the parents are safely isolated, they can safely wait a month. It may be even recommended to let people who are more in danger to go first. At the same time, any old person who is connected to any institutions (nursing home, hospitals, yeshivas) should get it immediately.
After about a month, we will have observational data on millions of people from Israel, US, and UK and we will see immediate effects across all age groups and health conditions.
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipant@Sam, maybe blockchain for tzedokah to ensure optimal anonymity?
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipant! Yeserbius>> so now a lot of clinics are forced to throw out vaccinations
I heard that too. This seems to be totally inappropriate and seems to be changing. I am reading that now people are allowed to come and get it at the end of the day.
Maybe politicians should have been last, not first, in line, then the line will move faster. I know some governors who honorably did not jump the line.
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantPS the only way math works is that we need to add ~ 80 mln 2nd doses being administered at the same time. Still, current trajectory is clearly moving towards 1.5 mln doses daily. I don’t see what massive federal project is required here.
Always_Ask_QuestionsParticipantGH, Charlie, could you please answer my question. It is about “maths”, not politics.
US is currently vaccinating 1.1 mln per day. Just multiply this by a hundred, you get to the 100 mln goal. So, what is the audacity of the goal that is below current performance?States distributed about 30% of what they got. disregard the propaganda, states are gradually improving their performance (by at least 10% daily) by adjusting policies, opening new centers, etc.
So, with further natural improvements, manufacturing will eventually be the limiting factor again, and it is all already under contract and ongoing. It is a miracle and we are complaining again.
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