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> and they are not see through
maybe someone thinks that they are see through?! you know about the guy who complained about inappropriate view across the street? They put a fence. He still called to complain – I still can see it when I get up on a chair!
thanks, I was not aware of this recent controversy at Cochrane. I think this supports the idea that Cochrane was considered the authoritative meta-review group. Did this change now? I looked up – there is nothing substantial coming later after this 2018 controversy, hat is partially personal, partially scientific. The only other later articles are by the person who lost in 2018 and continues writing about it on sites with such intriguing names as “mad in america”…
On substance, the discussion is
1) are RCTs biased by design as they are often funded by industry
2) do RCTs reflect clinical experience, as they often provide a simplistic set up and weed out complex patients, preferring patients with only one diagnosis, and ignore clinician input.I think both points may be valid, but to what degree? RCT meta-analysis still seems to be the best way to get noise out of the data. Hopefully, analysis of real data will find way into meta-analysis. This seem to be happening now with COVID. Some of the real data analysis, including from Israel, uses post-processing that emulates RCTs – by pairing patients from 2 groups based on similar demographic attributes.
The core question is – all vaccines by now were tested on a very large number of people, but they were not tested over long period of time. So, then the question is: during long-term testing of vaccines in last, say, 40 years: is it often that a vaccine is seen as safe after 1 year, but problems are discovered after a longer time period. Note, this is not about complications discovered simply by testing more people, but specifically 3-5 years after a specific patient got vaccinated.
I did a very brief search of vaccine trial reports several months ago and did not find any. Medicines seems to be more prone to side effects over time, as they are taken continuously. Maybe, others can find examples, and when we will have a baseline: say, 5 out of 50 vaccines had a side effect found after 3 years and how severe they typically are.
mobico, morbidity numbers are not well defined: what is a case? symptomatic? PCR? leading to antibodies? anyone who chanced on a virus for 1 minute? for 1 hour? There are estimates of how many true cases are there, but they are just that – estimates. These numbers are hard to compare across countries.
what is true – taht too many people died, and, at this point, many of these deaths are preventable in rich countries through their own and others’ vaccination … So, I think – people who do something inappropriately risky are doing an aveirah at that moment. those who refrain from taking vaccine when it is appropriate do an aveirah every moment they are not taking it.
Avram, Syag, again, I mention these issues because they (in my opinion) affect how one should behave. So, I can’t make a general statement that covers both people who are self-sustaining and those who take money from others. I brought R Salanter as an example, I am not against R Salanter, I hope you are also not.
nisht, yes, thanks for making a more detailed heshbon than I did. You can modify it a little in favor of own work:
– you can obviously learn by heart while you are doing manual work, especially for yourself and not for the customer (it is a question whether you can distract yourself from work when paid for work). If you can say shma on the tree, you can say it in the garage. Especially in our time, when you can even play a lecture on your phone
– You can also involve those kids in age-appropriate activities helping you. This should lead to bonding and kids respecting the father for his skills. And your kids learn something, so include their savings also.
– Share tools with like-minded friends
– probably can buy cheaper oil in bulk
– I personally do not follow that. I try to get to a Jewish mechanic, learn and work while he is doing his thing, and I have a chance to say something nice to him. He used to let me sit in his office for a major repair.> “You can also move from NY to Alabama.” .. someone told you that if you didnt like something to move away
I actually live in a pretty liberal place, and when I was younger and (even more) vocal, I was told about that … But note that moving from NY to Alabama is not that dramatic, comparing to what people in the world experience when, say, Poles move to UK, or Syrians to Germany. I moved from the South to Midwest and then further North, and you adapt pretty quickly.
This is the beauty of this country – there is competition between governments (states) not just businesses: people can choose whether they want to have high or low tax rates, etc. The Feds are the only ones above competition and that is why progressives are trying to use Feds rather than states for their agenda – so that we will not be able to run away from them, as you mention.
As to comparing USSR and USA courts, that is lamer than what I said (:…
I agree on bias. Social media and algorithms amplify that. Adaptive tools (fbook, youtube, google search) feed you what you liked previously and amplify it further. I try to read moderate-left sources to avoid being biased by more natural right ones. It is usually transparent when they are biased [say, blaming bad decisions by Obama admin, but avoiding naming them. Just match the dates yourself]. If I feel I start believing what they are saying, then I take a detox.
And I think, Jewish learning should help everyone learn basics of questioning sources, literary analysis – what is missing, who is saying, what if there is a mis-attribution, etc
Remember that Phase 3 trials measured vaccine effectiveness v placebo – assuming same behavior. In real life, most people relax their behavior after taking a vaccine, like a good ice cream after a diet …
And when you now have a mass of people who congregate together with the vaccine, then they used zechuyot from the vaccine to reduce distance between themselves rather than to be safer.
Ironically, masks seem to lead to higher SD: people see masks and then behave accordingly. But when people see vaccinated people, they do not know vaccination status, leaading to lower SD.
This is a good illustration of Jewish symbolism that reminds us of proper behavior – mezuzah, tzitzis, shtreimel … on the opposite side, this is like good/bad neighbor from pirkei avos – your risk depends on the neighbors.
I actually like good conspiracies and am always disappointed when some turn out to not be true. So, here is my theory how bad actors (Russians, Chinese) create dissent in free countries:
1) attach to a community who are already deeply skeptical: note how Ivermectin is somehow mixed up with anti-vax and anti-mask crowd. There is no good reason that arguments for a good medicine need to be correlated with those.
2) Find a product that are not very toxic, cheap, and have unclear test results, such as Ivermectin. They don’t care about what works – no controversy, what is toxic – hard to find volunteers. Easy to find products with unclear results in the current noise of course.
3) Build a story why “establishment” does not want this medicine – allege corruption, discredit large trials because they are, by definition, run by large organization … I won’t be surprised that CCP or KGB could be running some of those small trials themselves.
End result: doubling the rate of killing Americans. That is, this cheap propaganda is as effective as the original virus.
So, how can you avoid hashash of being a partner with CCP if you sincerely believe in Ivermectin cure? Very simple. Detach the drug from the other ideas: go help people to get vaccines, wear masks, organize outside minyanim, and THEN offer Ivermectin to those who still get sick. Then, people will be more likely to take your arguments seriously.
Gmar hasima tova
COVID definitely affects fertility. Not even talking about niftarim here, deep coughing and sneezing are certainly not attractive. In a long term, a yeshiva bochur who did not have seychel to vaccinate may lose out on a shver who could afford to social distance his family.
Let’s go group-by-group:
1) Those who are of age, vaccine seems to be a must and most people understand it. Many of them are already blessed with childen, grand and great-grandchildren
2) Those who are young, did not have COVID and are social distancing – a reasonable question why experiment with a vaccine, may make sense waiting
3) Those who are young, did not have COVID and are NOT social distancing – they are highly likely to get Delta and thus, the question is: what is more risky – virus from Wuhan Lab or vaccine from Pfizer. Both not tested in long term and somewhat risky. Only a Chinese asset would claim that virus is less risky, though.
4) Those who already had COVID. Teiku for now. Maybe have one vaccine and be careful.Are we affected by environment on these issues? for example, would anyone use lace ir non-lace sheitel in today’s Kabul? Presumably, Taliban would be OK with Jewish women following our own halakha .. If yes, whom would they ask
> place of unification of Jews, in Beis Haknesses to daven and Beis Hamedrash to learn,
RebE, I was got involved into a (questionable) enterprise that attempted to have parallel kabolos shabbos by O- and non-O congregations with further shmooze l’derech shalom. Planning quickly exposed various fault lines.
I asked the Rav who responded succinctly – “Jews can’t pray together, but they can learn together”.
This is maybe why Moshe went to Beis Medrash .. and something to remember in these dividing times…Chaimy, whitecar – yes, along with defensive driving and driving middos.
I see a list of cases where we need some sort of third-party kashrus supervision, when decision makers are nogeah b’davar:
– Jews in EY estimating that they can take more from the government because of their contribution
– Jews in US taking welfare funds, justifying that they are using them for good reasons, quoting from CR – welfare worker said that they like how we spend welfare money on doing good things
– Jewish organizations saying that it is OK to attend shuls/schools (that they run) despite government decrees, or getting close to the lineThis does not look different from a butcher certifying his own meat… Even if you do not cheat directly, you are bound to be biased.
R Twersky quotes a question from a local Rav whose very annoying congregant wants an advice regarding make aliyah. Rav would be happy to buy the guy a ticket himself, so he is asking – can he advise the guy. R Twersky answers – no way you can, tell him (ambiguously) – “I can not beobjective “because of our (close?) relationship”
Ujm, Avira – regarding those who justify taking money “back” from the state. This seems to be against the Gemora about Rav Huna whose wine soured because he did not pay his workers – who already helped themselves by stealing from him. R Huna deserved either an open (vinegar -> wine) or a hidden (vinegar price = wine price) miracle for doing teshuva.
I am also not sure if I will be “justified” getting some extra funds from the government if I estimate that I got less from the government than I paid in taxes… They might knock on the door with gentle
Obama’s “you did not build that”,There is something universal in religious experience that makes people feel that they are not just above the law, but above Hashem’s natural laws. A recent research in Bangladesh looked at community-level effect of masking – they advertised masks in some villages and compared with similar villages without advertisement.
One of interesting results was that masking lead to increase in SD, rather than decrease as famous sociologist Fauci was afraid. Specifically – SD increased in market places, but did not in mosques … Maybe somehow people think that doing Hashem’s will protect them.
> militantly atheistic socialists took over Russia
There is a difference, of course – you could not appeal Soviet decrees, while you could governor’s. Turns out, the governor can even resign under pressure! So, what is a reason to disobey when you have democratic means – courts, elections. You can also move from NY to Alabama.
RebE > he could be a lefty and still put tefilin on the left hand
exactly. I would prefer the gabbai not remember my full name, but simply remembering when to call me for hagbah.
Re: broken etzim. Sounds like this twisted maneuver puts the etzim at risk and one would need to pay for, and find a servicer, for the repairs. Refuah shleima.
Refuah Shleima. Common sense advice – lead healthy lifestyle after that and do an overall medical checkup.
I am not sure why we are still debating pro- and against vaccines. Historical hesitancy of vaccines and greater caution in testing is due to unbalanced risks – vaccine given to whole population v. a small chance of getting sick. For example, there were 15K polio cases a YEAR in US in 1950s for 150M population. Currently, we have 80K hospital admissions per WEEK for just 2x higher population.
Thus, given a high chance of exposure to the virus for anyone who is mixing up with the public, the chance of having a virus is at best 5x lower than 100% exposure to the vaccine. Then, as already mentioned, you ismply compare risk from wild or created virus v. risk from a vaccine that was made to help, and it is obvious that vaccine risk is less. It is like comparing risk of infection v. antibiotics., or bullet and surgery.
> The countries that mass distributed Ivermectin to part or all of their population with tightly correlated and reproducible “flattening the curve” of every covid metric (like Mexico, Peru, India, just to name a few),
What is the claim specifically? I looked up Mexico, and their cumulative deaths are same as USA, their case fatality rate is several times higher than USA.
Moshe Rabbeinu previously complained that politics is too much for him. So, now, as he is done with politics, and Yehoshua is taking over and will deal with practicalities of applying Torah to real life in Eretz Isroel, Moshe went to spend remaining hours on his birthday to learn lishma, rather than answering shailos.
Gabbai needs to remember who is a lefty and call them when appropriate and not call them when not appropriate.
Sephardi Torahs are built better for Hagbah even with all the silver.
My Chasidishe Rosh Yeshiva taught that Eretz Isroel has inherent kedusha, while in other places we need to work to create islands of kedusha.
> President Bush would stand when speaking to his father,
I would think Bush Sr would prefer Bush Jr to not stand, but rather follow his advice … Not saying which one was wiser, just food for thought about what respect is.
ujm > Newer cars costs around $60 per oil change in NYC.
so, if you earn less than $60/hour, same applies. Furthermore, you do an oil change while on a trip off the island. I presume “newer” car means at least capable of crossing a bridge, not like some “older” NY cars.
Avram > You seem to bring up full-time learners quite frequently, no matter the context of the thread. What’s with that?
In this case, I just covered multiple cases where solution might be different – people who earn more, people who earn less, and people who depend on others.
As one illustration that halakha is different where you are independent or not – I quoted R Salanter before that he lowered his kashrus standards when he was on a trip sponsored to improve his health. And there are other examples – vacations, jewelry, tuition, where things are different. Some schools my kids went to are asking (I think appropriately) what camps/vacations kids attend, presumably before deciding on tuition breaks.
Where you are right – that these issues come up often and seems like you are surprised how often. Possibly, people get used to a lifestyle and do not understand the halakhic and lifnei-meshuras =-hadin implications.
As you asked my opinion, I humbly concur with the Gemorah cautioning us that many tried the way of Rashbi and did not succeed.
Avira > lechol hadeos Israeli law doesn’t enjoy the status of dina demalchua,
You can’t say “lechol hadeos”, if there are deos that disagree. You again define “deos” as only those with whom you agree.
If you think that delegitimizing others make your argument here stronger, you are mistaken. It is other way around. I suggest following Beis Hillel quoting R Kook first 🙂
> protesting a law one considers unjust
at the end, US provides democratic means to change the laws provided you can convince the people of such. In the case of MLK, he thought that he needs to have illegal acts and jail as a dramatic step of convincing the public or specific politicians. He did not plan the marches to establish alternative reality to the law.
it is not poshut whether you can be in shorts while on a zoom Torah class, or even a business call.
R Ouerbach used to stand while talking with R Moshe on the phone. Kal’ vehomer on zoom.
I think if you exhausted other approaches to Hashem – starting with healthy lifestyle, medicines, teshuva, tefila, tzedokah, learning, then it is time for the gems.
would this depend on woman’s height? If she is taller than an average Yid in shul (shoes included), then shuold be concerned that someone needs to stand on a chair and see her hair from the top?
it may depend not only whom you are asking but who is asking.
here is an example: my daughters were not sure whether a particular separation in an outdoors shul was OK, I asked a “hoshuva Rav”, who was sitting nearby and is pretty strict himself, whether this is OK. He looked back, shrugged and said – “they can stand there, if they are ok with this”. I said – “they are not ok with this”. He said “then, they should not stand there”. You may get a similar answer with the shaitel.
Health, Cochrane is a long time established source for meta-reviews. If you suspect them of foul-play, please look at their study and tell us what lead them to a different conclusion than you other meta-study, and then we can ponder who is more reasonable.
I looked briefly at the other site that impressed me with richness of references, but I think was a little cavalier with how they process them. They appear to be including a lot of very small studies and averaging them equally with large and very careful ones. Again, if you compare the two meta-studies step by step, we’ll see how they came to different conclusions.
As we got lots of sources here already, maybe those who feel oppressed by a specific din, can quote the specifics so that we can see which sources apply where.
Also, some call to not mix up Dina d’m with Hillul Hashem, but they are related. When people see or suspect Jews of doing something illegal, it would be Hillul Hashem, provided population respects the law itself. So, this may be different between Czar’s or Commies Russia or some Baghdad Caliph v. a modern democracy where you can generally assume that > 50% of the population, give or take, even if indirectly, support the law. So, keep in mind that some of the sources may have been developed under oppressive governments.
2 scents > NZ: As synthesized in the Cochrane systematic review
as I suggested, just go to Cochrane reviews site – that has many years of expertise in doing meta-studies – and read those meta-reviews yourself.
Someone counted that a 1 mln of professionals of different disciplines published or commented on COVID, all in good faith, but often outside of what they really know (that includes me). So, many people are trying obvious – aggregating someone else’s studies. Cochrane knows how to do it, they test for potential pitfalls and biases, others might not.
To quote common seychel, you don’t do your own dentistry, don’t rely on amateur meta-studies.
Orange> $30-$80 to do an oil change than spend an hour or more on it at home… Yeshivish people have better things to do.
Do you earn more than $30 after tax? if yes, buy the service. If not, do it yourself. If you are not earning anything, and someone else pays for your learning, ask him if he is willing to pay for your oil change. He would probably ask you whether you are using the car to learn.
GH > we are holding on to cars for longer periods these days.
this is a pre-covid trend. Vehicles now are mostly man-made materials and not metal, so they do not rust. Car companies suffer from their own success, and produce less cars – and charge more for them. Mechanics have less work to do and daven for early snow so that there will be at least some body work ..
> very car problem, HVAC problem, electrical problem a you had I’m my community I’m receiving calls year round for help with no offers if pay.
You should be proud that you are able to do something in life that is helpful to other people. A lot of office people are never asked to help as their skill of sitting through meetings and nodding is not helping humanity.
Possible solutions: pay yourself from your tzedokah funds (or essentially, consider your advice tzedokah). This is a subset of a more general solution to life annoyances: create a fund to cover such expenses in advance and pay yourself from that fund, say, every time your kid breaks a cup instead of shouting at the kid.
Also, answering questions is a great way to advertise your service! These people will come to you later, or recommend you to their friends. Maybe make sure that people know that you provide paid services, by, say, putting an ad in a school yearbook so that people know how to find you.
Nochum, when comparing halakha and dina d’malchusa regarding lockdowns, halakha should generally be more strict than secular law (according to R Meir Twersky, May 2020), as Jews have high obligations to care about human lives and other people, while politicians might be also influenced by a desire to have economy running and be popular.
Now with a year of experience, where might secular law become more strict: politicians can follow strict way when strictness is popular and helpful to economy. Why would halakha become less strict then? if it is less popular among Jews, or Jewish businesses/lifestyle are affected, and Jewish community is pressed in a different direction? something to think about.
R Heineman was asked during 2020 lockdown, whether it is possible to make a minyan with several families each standing in their own yard, so technically within the law. I think the questioner was not sure that this will count them as one group. The psak was – no, because a passer-by will not look carefully whether you are within the law, he will just see Jews doing something inappropriate. Then, he said, when some Jew will be in a need of a ventilator, someone might deny him one based on the opinions going about the Jews.
Beitza 8 regarding not shehting koy on yom tov – do not do a chumrah that will look inappropriate for an uneducated person.
> Can you tell the difference between someone wearing a sheitel versus someone bareheaded?
exactly, the sheitel turns out to be lifnei ever, as some need to make sure they can daven and have to get too close to the ladies to ascertain that the lady has a sheitel and not hair on. So, no sheitels at least until the end of Covid for everyone’s good.
Avira > mindlessly resort to the refrain of “just don’t look!”
I agree. This is a bigger issue – we all need to consider first how we behave towards other people. Beitza 10 (daf yomi) and also Bava Basra – you can take the dove if dist <= 50 amos to the nearest house. Judge Menahem Elon explains that the goal is to have simple rules that every simple farmer can apply in order to make sure he is stealing someone else’s dove, rather than taking the dove and saying “sue meif you can prove it is yours” to the neighbor
> what happens until getting accustomed?
until you are accustomed, you are presumably still a kid, unless you grew up under Talibs.
There are many people who may not come often during the year, but come on RH, YK. You don’t want to make it difficult for them by starting too early.
This year, you may be good making an early minyan to avoid overcrowding, but in normal times you probably want to be together with the community
Gadol > while either deliberately or naively ignoring the accelerating collapse of the Afghan military and government.
I think Biden’s people who have mostly experience in the “Beltway” do not think of the real world. In their mind, they can put Afghani army in a position to fight for 6 months and expect that Army simply follow the plan in order to save US from an embarrassment of an immediate collapse, disregarding the prospect of being brutally killed after the 6 months. This leaked conversation between Biden and Ghani is a good illustration – Biden talks about world perception, and Ghani is asking for air support.
jackk> The same ones who if Trump had gotten it done would be lavishing praise on him.
We do not know at this point what Trump would have done. He was involved in a number of foreign policies and so far there are none that Biden (or Obama) handled better. Trump tried but failed to stop Nordstream-2, Biden just folded. Trump imposed sanctions on various Chinese companies, Biden rescinded just the one against TikTok and so far kept the rest. Islamic State, Abrahamic accords, Iran – in all cases Trump handled it better than B or O. So, there is no reason to think that Trump would do worse and possibly would have done better. He would negotiate, threaten – not just Taliban, but also Ghani and warlords. Would he had succeeded, we don’t know, but I think everyone would agree, at least he would have tried, instead of just looking how to blame everyone. Mayhbe we need to wait for the next Trump term to find out.
Ubi >> choice 2: “staying in small numbers” until when? either indefinite
staying in small numbers was attempted successfully from 2015 with average 12 combat deaths per year. This included having advisors embedded with Afganis, etc. Could be made even safer if we reduce missions to videos and bombs. Some people get PTSD from flying Predators but that it is all. From the time Trump started talking to Taliban in Feb 2020, there were 0 deaths, so other groups are no threat at all. There was no risk in this mission, except politically. Worst case, we will get back to conceding in 4 years. So more people would go to school there in these 4 years.
FrusStat> A properly designed and handled large scale RCT will (almost) always be better than a observational study, but the key points are properly designed and handled large scale RCT.
I am more fun of observational studies (also, “properly performed” of course). Even large-scale RCT run out of all variations: do you give medicine early/late, doses, with something else, to what kind of people, etc. Observational studies let you find potential candidates to be confirmed with RCTs.
Back to meta-studies. These quoted sites look a little strange. They may or may not be malicious, but they seem to be a pre-processing step – they automatically include all kind of studies and, seemingly, weight them equally, whether they have 10 or 10000 cases.
I thought Cochrane Review is a gold standard for properly designed meta-studies. could someone find anything on these medicines in Cochrane?