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Health and ubiquitin: Ten million people will die in the USA under’s Trump’s presidency. In Eretz israel around 40000 people will die this year. Annually, close to 100 Million people die throughout the world. It is sad, especially for those who die. But this is normal Based on the government’s figures, Covid19 will raise the annual death rate in the USA from around 8 per 1000, to perhaps 11 per 1000 – back tgo what it was in the mid-20th century. The “Blue” argument is that for what is basically a very bad flu, we should stop the economy and reduce everyone to poverty. That would be appropriate for a serious public health threat such as a renewed Smallpox or an anti-biotic resistant strain of Bubonic Plague. These are diseases what would see the death rate rise to serious levels (perhaps 500 per 1000). But Covid19 is not in that class. The government was wrong to throw much (perhaps most) of the population out of work and to destroy their life’s savings for a disease that threatened to reduce our lives to the “misery” of those dark ages of the 20th century. Human die. Humans get sick. If you don’t like it, take it up with Ha-Shem — but don’t go around destroying other people’s lives and property since you are paranoid about a virus that is would be more annoyance that disaster, if the government had freaked out and turned terrorist on its own population.
For the same reasons many people are increasingly angry at the government over Covid19. The antibody testing, and occasional attempts to randomly test people (rather than testing only those with serious symptoms) suggest that perhaps 90% of all people who “get” Cover19 do not get sick, and that among the small percentage of those getting symptoms who die, most are already very old or very ill. The two characteristics, that only a small number of those infected become ill, and that most deaths are among the elderly and unhealthy are RADICALLY unlike past epidemics such as smallpox or bubonic plague. The correct response would allow for voluntary social distancing and enhanced teleworking, and would encourage the sick and elderly to “cacoon” , but wold have avoided the unreasonable measures that have stripped billions of people (whose lives were never at risk) of their livelihoods and of their hard earned assets, not to mention suppressing Limud Torah and Shmerias Mitsvos (which unlike Covid19, does put our continued existence at risk).
In all situations, the term is “relative” and subject to constant change.
Trump never should have bought the media story about this being a dangerous plague. They had a panic over ventilators, then it turned out they are more likely to kill than heal. He bought the line that this is a hard to catch plague (meaning lockdowns would be effective), but one that was very bad if you caught it. Now they they can look for antibodies, it turns out to be easy to catch (meaning lockdowns won’t help much), but 90% of the “victims” don’t get sick enough to worry about testing (and meaning the death rate instead of being something similar to the Influenza of 1918 or Smallpox or Bubonic plague, is closer to the annual flu that kills thousands ever year. — Meanwhile he deliberately crashed the economy, robbed people of their savings, undermined their livelihood, and doomed many people (albeit not in the US) to a horrible death due to starvation caused by a breakdown in world trade. — In his defense, he did admit to be paranoid about germs (which explains his overreaction), and he is not as nuts as the Democrats who seem to consider destroying everyone’s economic means of existence to be a good thing. Trump may be a fool, but the Democrats are totalitarian wannabees.
To: anonymous Jew
It is interesting that Chabad pioneered in frum home schooling for far-flung Chabadniks. A leading producer of home schooling among the goyim (used by many Yidden who are home schooling as well), started out with a major audience being “missionaries” in far flung locations wanting an American education for their children.
Covid19 could result in facilitating Jews leaving New York City (apparently the world center of Covid19, probably because of the inherent problems of forcing so many people into such a small area).
Regardless of whether history ends up seeing the Covid 19 crisis as a medical crisis, or an example of government overreaction and unjustified panic, the impact of increased use of the internet for teleworking and distance education will remain. Increased telework opportunities may prove very significant for frum Jews (e.g. ability to live in our preferred area regardless of where the job is, not having to interact with co-workers who are intolerant of frum lifestyles, etc.), and distance education offers many other opportunities (e.g. access to Torah education regardless of where you live, possibilities of getting secular studies without going through the yeshiva world). This is the true long term impact of Covid19.
Dear Health,
Should we have been having a lockdown every winter for four months during the annual flu season? It would save some lives as well, mostly of older persons and persons with serious medical problems. Tens of thousands of people die every year from flu. Covid19 contrary to sensationalist mass media, does not make most people sick – perhaps only 10% of people who “catch” it get sick enough to need to consult with a doctor (and get tested) – of the serious cases, perhaps only one in twenty die – that means Covid19 is only a bit more dangerous than the regular flu, but is in no way similar to the mass killing epidemics in the past (that are cited as evidence for how halacha looks at epidemics).As most frum families have lots of little people running around, I suspect that it will be necessary to develop mini-offices with sound-proof cubicles, either in homes or perhaps as a business outside the home, to support teleworkers. The same might hold for teachers and perhaps for students. There also is the issue of bandwidth, since if one has six children each doing different programs, one needs six computers with adequate broadband.
One needs to remember that independent studies of how many people have antibodies, as opposed to how many people tested positive for Covid19, suggest that in over 80% of cases, the person has has the disease does not get sick enough to notice (a cold, or nothing at all). This suggests that the lockdowns (and cancellation of davening and learning Torah) were based on “junk science”. Covid19 is worse than the annual flu, but not radically so. It bares no resemblance to smallpox or black death or even the 1918 influenza. Those most at risk should take special precautions (as with the annual flu), but the destruction of the economy (equivalent to the Great Depression) was uncalled for. The politicians (and the rabbinicial organizations, and the medical profession) goofed and need to take immediate measures to restore their credibility.
He was a general, then he became a politician (clearly guilty of that), and had politically incorrect view (also a serious crime as least as far as the “deep state” civil servants are concerned, and worst of all he was a known associate of the devil incarnate (as any Democrat will tell you). Clearly guilty of all three counts.
1. Blue states tend to be based on large urban areas. In New York, for a example, the virus was not a serious issue in counties located too far away that a daily commute to New York is unrealistic. This suggests that a suburban or rural lifestyle with heavy reliance on private cars is healthy, and an urban lifestyle is not.
2. It isn’t clear how “deadly” the virus is until they compare total death rates. Roughly three million Americans would have died in 2020 given the normal death rate, and so far the virus seems to have only been a drop in the bucket. Historic plagues cause massive increases in the death rate,
3, Literature and mass media are big on “apocalyptic” themes, which may explain the massive overreaction, Note the frum organizations and media also overreacted.
A major factor is age. Except for frum Yidden, New Yorkers have very few children, and while children become infected they generally do not get very sick. Not only to frum Israelis have lots of children, but even the secular Israelis of Jewish descent, as well as Israel goyim (largely the Palestinian Arabs) have a birth rate that while lower than the frum community’s, is radically higher than in any of the other developed countries.
So you can see a lower death rate either as a quirk of demographics, or due to Ha-Shem rewarding those communities that observe the mitzvah to be fruitful and multiply.
English grammar and spelling are rapidly changing. One factor is that oral and visual communications are much easier now (Skype, Zoom, Webex and Google hangout, are “in”, long thoughtful letter writing is “out”). Another factor is that while English has become the universal global language, most English speakers are not native speakers. “Texting” requires quick terse comments, now ones based on careful grammar and spelling.
Skill at writing and reading English is becoming a specialized, and marketable, skill. But it is probably a fool’s errand to expect the average Anglophone (frum or not) to takes the rules of grammar and spelling seriously.
Telework will be more common. This is good for frum Jews, since telework is good for flexible hours, good for women (and men) not wanting to be forced to work in a goyish workplace, and people who don’t like frum Yidden can’t see you on the internet.
Distance education will be good. This offers opportunities for frum Jews both for getting secular education without having to go to a goyish school, and for Torah education (especially for those not living in the heart of Boro Park or Lakewood). We’ll probably have to get rid of relying on “filters” and look into our own VPNs.
Outside of New York City, it appears that the Covid-19 only made a small percentage of infected persons sick, and very few became seriously ill other than the elderly and those who were seriously ill to begin with. This will have political implications for the places where the lockdowns were not needed. It may encourage people to move out of New York City for health reasons, resulting in significantly lower housing prices in New York (good if you rent, bad if you own). Both parties will be blamed for the lockdowns and the economic hardship caused, opening the door for possibly new and radical political movements, and in general, Jews do better under established and boring governments rather than new and radical ones.
Antibodies does demonstrate the person had the disease, so it does show that if you get the Coronavirus, the odds at 10-1 you will not get seriously ill (meaning the estimates of death rates is needs to be divided by a factor of 10). The most recent news is they decided that having antibodies makes you likely to be a false positive, which sounds reasonable. The drug companies challenge is to get a drug in use while demand is high, and mindful of the illegality of them “pushing” a drug’s unapproved use (e.g. they can sell you a drug if it is approved for something, but they can’t suggest using it for something other than what the government has approved it for).
If one considers that 1% of the population dies every year (in the US, that means roughly three million, in New York City, about 70,000 per year), if the press covered each and every death as they did Coronavirus deaths, it would clearly cause panic. In historic plagues (e.g. “Black death” or “Smallpox” in a place that never had it before), the death rate would be much higher (for example, in a typical Boro Park apartment building, at least one or two people would die daily, and after a few months, the building be largely empty) – but that isn’t happening (even if the mass media prefer to look at the current virus in apocalyptic terms).
It is unlikely that a “new” drug will be developed in time. Even with lockdowns, most people will already have had Covid19 long before anything “new” is ready for commercial use (a concept sometimes called “herd immunity”). Remember that the figures such as those released last week by Governor Cuomo indicate that perhaps for every one person who tests positive for Coronavirus (and is usually only tested when they have symptoms), between five and ten others have antibodies indicating they already had the disease but didn’t get sick. Once the percentage of people with antibodies reaches a certain point (longer in lockdown areas, faster elsewhere), the need for a drug will decline.
Since the drug companies are using “old” drugs already approved for other purposes, their marginal costs are very low. Remember, the cost of drugs is not the actual manufacture, but the research to develop it. They already did all the development work and research and testing, and the drug has proven “safe” already (and effective for some purpose, not necessarily for Coronaviruses). The companies will anxiously offer drugs to doctors for free in the hopes that the drug will work against Coronaviruses, thereby enabling the company to start charging outrageous prices for the drug. Under existing law, the companies aren’t allowed to sell (especially at outrageous prices) a drug if they are promoting it for a use for which it has not been established as being “effective”.
If he was a comedian on late night TV, it would have been considered just another funny joke in poor taste. Consider if Don Rickles held public office and didn’t change in delivery. Only a fool would have thought that was a “straight line”, but unfortunately the media and much of the Democratic party tend to be fools.
Perhaps Americans will decide they prefer a dull politician who never says anything unless it has been reviewed by his handlers as reflecting what the audience wants to here, and about whom we will never know what he really thinks, but at least he won’t insult anyone.
Our day schools, even the “rich” ones, already underpay our teachers, and have administrations that while bloated compared to what yeshivos had “in the old country” in the “good old days” (when most people were happy to have two almost square meals on most days, if they were lucky), they are actually unbloated compared to the public schools. Just think for a minute, if you were a goyish bank loaning money at interest (and expecting to be repaid), and someone known to you as a yeshiva rebbe walked in the door, would you jump to greet him or would you look the other way and hope he wasn’t there to ask for a loan.
It might be possible to put the teachers on unemployment insurance, which is being supplemented, but that’s it.
Hasn’t the government banned haircuts (at least they banned barbershops as non-essential).
He’ll manage. His businesses (all corporations, even if he owned all the stock) have often gone bankrupt in the past. The exception is if there is a question of vote fraud (e.g. Democrats win through massive “vote harvesting” rather than people casting ballots in a traditional way). Then one can assume massive Republican resistance that will make the Democrats resistance seem like loyal opposition.
The Democrats will blame the Republicans, and the Republicans will blame the Democrats. Trump will blame the Chinese and point out the Democrats objected when he wanted to ban them from coming to the US. The Democrats will quote early Trump statements saying this wasn’t a crisis. The Libertarians will say the economic collapse was not necessary since outside of a few cities, the virus appears to only kill sick and elderly, and that the focus should have been on isolating the vulnerable rather than crashing the economy.
No hiddushim should be expected.
Trump endorsed it, making it politically incorrect to prescribe it, and in blue state, political correctness matters. If Trump had denounced it, it would be mandatory to give it to any New York who tests positive even without serious symptoms.
The worst danger is if this turns out to be unnecessary. While one won’t know for a while, it is quite possible that almost everyone will be exposed to COVID 19, and 80% will develop immunity without getting so sick they need to see a doctor or go to the hospital, and that the death rate when recalculated based on everyone who had the virus (rather than everyone sick enough to get tested and/or hospitalized) will turn out not to be much higher than the regular flu, and concentrated among the sick and elderly (similar to regular flu).
The kinyan (exchanging a pen or gartel or whatever) is just a way of making it clearer. There is no inherent reason why one can’t make a contract over the internet (or through the mail), either by halacha or the goyim’s law. The only issue if proof of identity (ask for a moment if in the past you had to show your passport or drivers license or ID card when selling hametz).
Don’t blame Ha-Shem. The virus is a a bad case of flu. The goyim over overreacted, perhaps since their literature and culture loves “end of the world” stories, and perhaps since no one remembers what real epidemics were like. The damage is self-inflicted. In a rational world, they would allow more teleworking, but wouldn’t close anything, and would tell the sick and elderly to be careful, just as they do in flu season.
If as the alarmists claim, Covid 19 spreads fast and is easy to catch, then we should be relieved when look at Wuhan where only 1% of the population became seriously ill, meaning 99% didn’t catch the virus or had symptoms treated with over the counter medicines, or less. The figures from Italy and Korea, both of whom probably are not lying, suggest a disease that is usually not all that serious unless you are in poor health to begin with (similar to the winter flu). The focus should be on isolating those at risk, rather than attempting to stop the spread of what is similar to a regular cold (making it a fool’s errand to stop the spread). The economic and social disruption is not justified by the disease itself.
Yes, but we need to give Coronavirus credit where credit is due. It managed to thoroughly disrupt the world’s economy, end Trump’s economic boom (though he might save himself if he can blame it on China and the Democrats), and totally make a mess of American society. If we measured viruses by how much damage they do, rather than how many people they kill, Covid 19 is probably doing better the Cholera, Influenza or Black Death ever did.
And did I mention the people who will talk about the “boy who cried wolf” the next time there really is a serious epidemic.
Cholera is caused by polluted water (usually due to human waste getting into the water supply). It also results in people dying in large numbers. It turns out that most of the doctors’ advice at the time was totally wrong.
Covid 19 is an infection that spreads between people. Most people have a minor “cold”. It rarely causes death, and is “pikuach nefesh” only for those with serious medical problems to begin with.
Bubonic plague (Black Death) killed a large number of people of all ages. In most countries, most of the population was infected, and almost everyone infected died a horrible death (note that COVID 19 only causes death or serious illness only for a minority of people infected, typically those who are elderly or sick already). The pain society feels from COVID 19 is caused by the government treating what is not much worse than the regular flu as if it was a dreaded life-threatening plague. They would be better to tell those at high risk to take protective measures, but not to destroy the economy or serious disrupt life.
The fatality rate is unknown since it appears that most people exposed to the disease don’t get sick enough to tell those who keep statistics. Unlike flu, it doesn’t have a severe impact on children, and Baruch ha-Shem, our community has lots of children. It is an extra round of flu season, with no vaccine.
It is not, unless it mutates, anything all that serious (compare the regular measles, chicken pox and polio epidemics prior to the vaccine, the influenza of 1918, and the plague epidemics prior to antibiotics). The world really isn’t ending.
It’s a bad case of flu, with no flu shot to minimize the impact. Not the end of the world. If you panic each year over the “flu season”, feel free to panic now. If your response to flu season is to buy drugs to treat the effects of flu, and to stock up on chicken soup, now is the time to do so.
Since Chareidim are younger (since we have lots of children, Baruch ha-Shem) than the rest of the population, we are less affected. The hiloni Jews, who have few children, and therefore a high percentage of old people, are the ones who have to worry about dying off. Note that China, whose “one-child” policy resulted in a population with too many old people relative to children, is the center of the outbreak.
The major injuries will be economic policies caused by government efforts to keep the virus from spreading which are out of proportion to the damage the virus will cause.
Because in a parliamentary system one has to have a coalition with a majority, and if not, they have to call an election. The government can’t function otherwise. A proportional system with a low blocking percentage allows for many small parties with radical agendas, which is complicating the process. If they had single member districts with a majority required to win, there would be very few people from religious parties (but more religious candidates in all the other parties), and very few if any secular fanatics getting elected – though one should note a strong Jewish tradition of proportional representation.
1. The Chinese government lies (and worse, believes its own propaganda). The Iranians aren’t much better. Since it has become a partisan issue in the US (the Democrats blame Trump for anything as a matter of principle, the Republicans will point out that this is another argument supporting their position against open borders, trade and China), the US response will be chaotic.
2. The Rav in Iran can be trusted to be aware of conditions there, and he held that the epidemic in Iran was enough to not fast on Taanis Esther (note: it doesn’t all that much to be exempt from fasting on Taanis Esther). This is troubling.
3.So far, it sounds like it is just as bad, but not, worst than the annual flu, though there is no vaccine. Flu gives people a bad cold and occasionally causes deaths. especially of those who are ill already. If Covid 19 is basically a second round of flu, there is no reason to panic.
“Bad” is relative. It is good for medical supply companies, and great for stock investors hoping to buy stocks at a discount. Not so good if you get hospitalized and worse, but apparently for most people COVID-19 is nothing more than a bad cold.
P.S. The airlines are in danger of bankruptcy since they have been over-spending on equipment, and one of their major suppliers sold them plans that tend to crash.
People have been fleeing New York for years. If you are a boomer, you might remember when New York had the largest population – now it is number 4. Whereas once “out of town” meant a city with only “modern” shuls that were at best borderline Orthodox, and a mikva – today “out of town” means diverse frum shuls, kollels, restaurants and kosher grocery stores.
It is very good for those looking for opportunities to buy stocks cheaply. Some medical supply business should be doing well. Not very good for those who get sick and especially those who die. They will probably have a vaccine for it for next year which will be included in the annual flu shots.
If you think someone is a professional spy, it is almost certain they aren’t. Spies don’t act like spies. If they do, they flunk out of spy school and have to something else for a living.
One can not judge a political leader until he is dead. Warren Harding was at his death hailed as a great president and much beloved, and within a few years he was is such disgrace that no one would attend a dedication for a memorial to him. Harry Truman was seen as a gigantic failure when he left office, and today is probably seen as the greatest president of the second half of the 20th century.
If Trump is remembered as the person whose rude speech led to American becoming a communist dictatorship, he will not be fondly remembered. His trade and immigration policies may save us from a pandemic, and boost working class wages, but in the long run my cripple growth.
Time will tell.
There are no reliable figures from China since the government seems to be inclined to deceive, and apparently also believes its own lies. If the Chinese are to be believed, it is a severe cold with low mortality (i.e. not even close to the 1918 influenza). Cutting back on foreign trade and blocking both immigrants and foreign tourists (things Trump is good at) can reduce the impact. If the government decides to close schools (and sports, and theaters, and malls), we can go along with them, and thereby let them decide. Given the US if a net exporter of food and fuel, the US won’t face critical shortages of necessities
Trump’s policies have been very good for the poor and middle class. He lowered unemployment, especially of non-white minorities discriminated in the past, to record LOW levels. The Democrats often welfare crumbs, Trump offers the loaf of full employment. The major tool he used was to reduce immigration (legal and otherwise), which hurts economic growth by cutting off the supply of cheap, easy-to=exploit workers, but it does help the poor and middle class.
His tax policies made the better off classes in the blue states scream loudly by taking away deductions that most Americans aren’t rich enough to exploit. Sounds pretty moral to me.
As for what he did in bed, especially when younger, and his rude speech on social media (proving our gedolim right in objecting to social media), that is somewhat irrelevant to qualification for president, at least in a country where running the government is done by the president. His public policies are what matters, and his are quite moral (BTW, did I mention he’s against killing babies, unlike his opponents).
Define immoral. Whereas once he was a (“borderline”) honest businessman, he has gone out and now associates full time with persons of known dubious ethics (Pirke Avos discusses this class of persons, they are easy to identify since they formally refer to themselves as “the Honorable …., with some title reflect their official position). His political positions are all very conventional (and many were Democratic positions back when he was a Democrat, such as opposition to free trade and immigration), and while his lack of derekh eretz in use of social media may be a problem, I would hardly call that “immoral.”
While in “intimate” matters he have done a lot of things (especially when younger) that would be unacceptable if he was a Yid, he is a genuine goy (half German, half Scots, no known Jewish ancestry). We tend to ignore what goyim do in bed if it doesn’t affect us (they don’t ask for our hecksher).
In terms of political leaders we judge them by their policies as they affect us, and in this respect, Trump is probably among the best American presidents, ever (from our perspective, I would put Washington first expanding the concept of religious tolerance to include Jews, and Trump tied for second with Truman).
Abortion and toeiva are annoying but aren’t our major problem. If the goyim want to kill their own kids, it doesn’t affect us. We never exactly looked up to them as role models.
The Democratic policies in many areas will hurt politically unconnected minorities, religious groups, parents who want to control the raising and education of their own children, etc. They favor an economy controlled by big corporations such as the FANG companies (that tend to be unwelcoming to cultural minorities), with everyone else being doomed to life on the dole at best (that’s what “guaranteed income is”). And their anti-Israel policies will destabilize the Middle East and have serious consequences for the Jews in Eretz Yisrael.
RE: CTLawyer vs ResidentMoral
Slavery was legal in the United States, and the Supreme Court upheld it. It required some very unconstitutional measures to change (civil war, stripping a third of the states of their political rights, getting several percent of the population killed). Also note the the scientific consensus supported slavery, it was the religious fanatics who brought it down.
Murdering Jews was legal in Germany, based on laws constitutionally passed by a democratically elected government (n.b. the post-war trials conducted by the Allies were for killing non-Germans, which violated international law). One should note that German policy was based on American racial policy, and reflected the
scientific consensus at the time on racial and ethnic supremacy.Abortion is no more morally reprehensible than American slavery (which was unusually reprehensible compared to Roman or Jewish law), or the mass murder of ethnic and religious minorities – if you like one, you’ll like them all.
Trump is a friend of (frum) Jews, Bloomberg is an enemy. Under Trump, the government is pro-religion (excluding those whose religion requires them to kill or persecute others) and American policy is to support Freedom OF Religion; under the Democrats the government will support a policy of militant secularism and “freedom FROM religion”.
Both will give a green light to discrimination against Orthodox Jews. They will also incite “racial” anti-semitism, especially Sanders since in this case a Jew will be blamed for a massive economic collapse. Sanders is likely to do the “politically correct” thing and support Palestinian terrorist attacks directed against Jews anywhere in the world, whereas Bloomberg will actively oppose “racial” (“ethnic”) anti-semitism (meaning he will object if non-frum Jews are killed, even by terrorists).
The best solution for our community is for Trump to win by a landslide. Trump may be”bad” in many ways, be he is not anti-Jewish, and his overall policy of support religion will work in our favor.
Trump is rooting for Sanders. Bloomie is a serious threat to win the election and give the Democrats control of both houses of Congress.
Neturei Karta engages in peaceful protests – note the great approval one hears of them from the people complaining about Peleg. Whether peaceful, non-violent protests (cf. Gandhi in British India, Martin Luther King in the American South under Jim Crow, the “White Rose” in Nazi Germany) are effective is a matter to debate.
Remember, the alternative to protests is repression, i.e. gestapos and camps, gulags, “re-education”, When you look at it that way, democratic tolerance of disorder doesn’t seem all that bad.
Bloomberg?
Pure capitalist (no inherited money).
Definitely straight.
Nominally Jewish (Reform)If he can get the Democrat left to shut up, or whine privately, and vote for him, he can probably beat Trump
The only food with its own bracha is wine, and arguably bread (one can argue the bread is a sub-set of mezonos (foods from grains).
Coffee was introduced in the period of the rishonim (and cocoa in the period of the achronim), too late to get mentioned in the Talmud, and in any event, why would it get its own bracha.