Unemployment rate and job numbers

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  • #1971894
    ☕️coffee addict
    Participant

    This article seems to not be on the main page as of erev shabbos at 6:56 pm

    Is this “proof” as to the fact that “Ywn editor” is really a democrat (either that or he only gets his news from AP and they hid it too)

    #1971905
    ujm
    Participant

    This website blindly reposts mainstream media news articles that always carry their hard-left wing bias and untruths, thereby this site unintentionally carrying that same leftist slant.

    #1972009
    n0mesorah
    Participant

    Maybe the media is not that dumb. They do not associate random numbers with the party of the fellow sitting in the whit house.

    I would have typed ‘winning elections with instant economic effects’ but then I would get yelled at for using ‘winning’.

    Cancel culture.

    Whatever

    #1972010
    jackk
    Participant

    No need to hide the truth.

    The truth does not reflect poorly on Biden.

    Only republicans constantly lie about losing the election.

    #1972021
    ☕️coffee addict
    Participant

    Nomesorah is giving to much credit to the media

    And I don’t get what connection the second part has to anything (along with jackks post)

    #1972025
    lakewhut
    Participant

    Jackk, So the unemployment rate doesn’t reflect poorly on Biden? This shadow Obama government is destroying the country. The democrats want to weaken the military, destroy businesses, and keep people on the government dole.

    #1972039
    n0mesorah
    Participant

    Dear Lakewhut,

    You have to be really really woke to not differentiate Obama from Biden.

    #1972037
    n0mesorah
    Participant

    Dear Jack,

    This is the first time republicans made a big stink about losing national elections. And that is only if trumpers can be called republicans. Democrats had difficulties coming to terms with 2000, 04, and 16.

    #1972038
    n0mesorah
    Participant

    The unemployment rate is due to workers being afraid of the pandemic. [Do not ask me. Ask them.] And lack of child care. Do you all believe in the President’s office that much, that in a hundred days we would be seeing major changes in the data?

    #1972109
    jackk
    Participant

    N,

    The reason I said that there is no need to hide from the truth of the jobs report is similar to your post, because the numbers are just numbers and can be interpreted.
    Your reasoning for the numbers are possible.
    Biden talked about the jobs report and the steps still needed to help Americans.
    It is not being hidden.

    Lying about a lost election, storming the Capitol, and throwing anyone who disagrees under the bus (Cheney) is not a “big stink”. It is the current MO of the republican party.
    The party that told us in 2016, ” Trump won , get over it”, can’t get over his loss.

    #1972166
    emes nisht sheker
    Participant

    Well said jackk.

    For all I have listened here about “cancel culture” seems anyone who disagrees with Trump’s alternative view of reality is being cancelled as quick as possible by Republicans.

    #1972178
    ☕️coffee addict
    Participant

    I heard Larry kudlow on the radio say that this is the seasonally changed number if it wasn’t seasonally adjusted it would be more than a million

    He says you’ll see a higher number than expected next month

    #1972184
    n0mesorah
    Participant

    This thread is about the very serious topic of media bias. It is distressing that news outlets can not be sued for not incorporating my biases into their reporting.

    On a similar note, it is even more distressing that my own biases toward the candidates are not reflected in any major polls. Even though my personal sense dictates that I have the public consensus wildly on my side.

    And what is completely inexplicable is that my own judgement has been demonstrated time and again to be in perfect sync with reality. Every single prediction that I even considered making, has been completely fulfilled as if by providential decree. Yet, some vast conspiracy of illegitimate actors, is preventing a some part of this absolute reality from playing out. But for that, my record on truth- especially unknowable truth is unassailable.

    I could only conclude that it is the media’s fault.

    Maybe the mods would like to take responsibility.

    #1972240
    huju
    Participant

    What “article” is the opening poster referring to? Without it, does this thread have any meaning?

    #1972247

    One month does not make it a trend and seasons are indeed out of sync. At the same time, I heard people making predictions about words that will be used and predictions are, worryingly, coming true:
    “unexpectedly” (about unemployment rate)
    “modest” (about expected inflation, Sec Yellen)
    so, this is worrying

    also, I suggest we look at _male_ unemployment rate and labor participation rate (that includes people not looking for jobs). Biden administration feels compelled to make all women work – providing payments for childcare but, seemingly, not by mothers themselves. I think we here would agree that those women who would like to care of their own children should be supported to do that rather than forcing them to “contribute to economy” instead.

    #1972264

    And here are some numbers on civilian labor participation rate (LPR) for men from 20 years old to put current events in perspective:
    men:
    Bush II: 76.6 to 75.9 in 2008, falling to 75.3 in Jan 2009
    [-0.2% per year]
    Obama: slowly going down to 71.7 (-4%) in 2016, consistently over whole 8 years, not just after recession
    [-0.5% per year]
    Trump: staying same until Feb 2020, -3% in 2 months March/April, +1% in 2 months, then stable
    [-0.5% per year even with COVID]
    Biden: same for 3 months

    Summary: nobody made things better in last 20 years
    Bush decreased LPR by 1%, 2008 recession by 1%, Obama by 4%, COVID by 2%,

    Maybe it would be more precise to take men of prime working age, say, 30 to 50 and do it separately by race and education

    #1972265
    ☕️coffee addict
    Participant

    Huju,

    The jobs report came out on Friday

    I would expect there to be an article on Ywn about it, wouldn’t you? (I think it has more importance than Elon musk having Aspergers, don’t you?)

    #1972267
    lakewhut
    Participant

    N0mesorah this shadow government is Obama behind the scenes. Kamala Harris and Biden are not popular on their own merits. If you don’t realize it then you’re sheep.

    #1972279
    Amil Zola
    Participant

    I don’t live in a homogeneous Jewish town or area. I’m not quite sure how you can claim and/confirm that the Biden admn feels ‘compelled’ to make all women work. Do you have any data to support this claim?
    I have family in Lkwd for generations and it’s been my experience that Frum women in Lkwd do work to support their husbands who are learners and help pay for childrens tuition. I personally don’t feel that the current President is forcing these women to work outside (or inside) the home. It is merely a religious lifestyle choice that is very expensive.

    #1972292
    n0mesorah
    Participant

    Dear Lakewhut,

    Biden was a very popular senator before Obama ran for the Senate. Now a deep historical question? In your political outlook was Obama’s speech the genesis of United States politics?

    #1972300
    lakewhut
    Participant

    Yeah, how did Biden do in previous attempts to run for president? Abysmal. Obama made him popular. It’s not hard to be popular I a 100 person town Delaware.

    #1972320
    n0mesorah
    Participant

    Do go on.

    #1972351

    Amil, analysis coming out of administration and related economists is that we “lost” decades of progress with women now staying home more because schools are remote
    Proposed remedies are to subsidize childcare. Women being at home with children is considered a bad thing..
    This ignores the fact that at least 30 percent of children now stay at home even where schools are open. Wsj had an article that kids missed kindergarten, might be ruined for life, and a significant portion of comments protesting and suggesting that socializing and learning with the family may be also good.

    #1972536
    Amil Zola
    Participant

    Always, I’ve googled and can’t find federal documentation to support your posits. Its would have been helpful if you read my post for comprehension and actually addressed the issue I raises vis a vis Frum women. Now again, the Jewish women who work either inside or outside their homes to support their families while the father is studying has not been addressed by you. This is traditional and certainly hasn’t been forced by our government.

    Here in the burbs (mixed not part of the the Jewniverse) a serious issue is childcare outside the home and how it has been impacted by the pandemic. Small communities such as mine have crafted solutions. Employers have also been part of the solution. From what I read on frum women’s sites like Ima, costs of child care are a lot lower on the east coast and frum Women will use unlicensed facilities. Here west of the Mississippi, our average hourly licensed facility will charge an average of $20/hr. Frum women also send their children out a lot earlier than their non Jewish cohorts. These are all apples and oranges you are unaware of. The claims of the NYTd are pretty much bunk without an actual statical study.
    Have a good day and a pleasant tomorrow.

    #1972850

    Amil,
    we were discussing overall policy in the country. I think it is a Jewish thing to strengthen families – whether for Jews or non-Jews. I do not doubt that many women would benefit from childcare support. My point was that Democratic policies consider increasing female workforce as a specific great thing, dismissing the value of mother staying with kids. For example, there are (I understand, never used them) some tax deductions for (legal) childcare expenses, but I can’t find any for parents doing it themselves. Maybe I am missing some – please let me know.

    I always felt a little sad when you fill out online taxes, get some credits for kids, and then you start seeing credits decreasing and then going away with all the income filled in. Like, why did I just lovingly filled out all the names and DOBs?! There is no reward for that in olam hazeh?!

    When the credits suddenly survived after Trump tax reform (even at the expense of SALT), I called kids and showed them that Fed Gov now appreciates their value! I guess I should also appreciate Obama’s letting them stay dependent on us ad shesh veesrim ..

    #1972852

    Amil.
    re: your points on frum women. Women working to support husbands learning is great if it works out for the family. Hope someone is somehow weighing the quality of learning with effect on the wife and children. Not sure where this is going, though. Are you saying that you would prefer to have more money going into third-party childcare in order to support those talmidei chachamim?

    I guess you can say that Hashem created the world for the sake of the Torah and then taxed the goyim to pay for childcare for little yidden while their father is learning… I would like to see a good source before agreeing, because there are a couple of thing that bother me here:

    1) can we advocate something that is detrimental to society but good for a small group of us, even an important one?

    2) if someone wants to learn, can he benefit from (and even advocate for) taxing other people to support his lifestyle? There are other, traditional, ways – live in poverty, sign up with a Zevulun, marry a rich girl, work for two hours a day, learn for eight hours after working for eight hours …

    maybe you were leading somewhere else, then please clarify

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