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Stam:
1) Stop pretending, the government didnt reveal anything an independent journalist exposed the fraud that is Wakefield. Yet in spite of the evidence you still say “supposdely” refuted. Wheras when it comes to the “medical establishment” based on no evidence whatsoever you claim they are all lying for finacial gain. You have such firm convictions based on all the “research” youve done, yet the best you can determine regarding wakefield is “supposedly debunked” in the face of the overwhelming evidence against him. I’m sorry that makes you a supporter of his
2)”Autism is only one piece of pie. Again, i do not know enough to comment on any one study. I want to know the whole picture and that can only be done with the large scale study with all sides involved as i and others have suggested.”
Ok so lets focus on that one piece. Several large scale studies that you have sugested have been done and I provided them above. If you cant admit that there is no link between vaccines and Autism (just that one piece) in spite of my providing you with studies you demanded. Please do’nt claim to be “”honest enough to entertain the other side”” Not only that, you arent even honest enought o entertain your own side, since youd be moving the goal post you yourself set up!
3) nothing is impossible. Besides you have the terms confused. It is the unvaccinated who are uninformed, and are in fact being punished! So conceivable or not it is happening.
4) I am very irritated.
a. because you claimed that with a study you would change your mind. I provided several studies.
b. You are putting lives at risk.
and c. you pretend to be informed but you dont know the aleph beis of study design. Earlier you didnt know what statistical power is, you made a demand for a study that is impossible, you dont understand the fundamentals of a RCT. Which is fine of course, just dont pretend you researched a subject you know so demonstrably little about
OWL
you left of the rest of the quote so I well go that route. The only link they found was anaphalxis.
“can you help us to understand why autism has gone from 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 100 during the vaccination era? “
a. I cant
b. can you help us to understand why autism has gone from 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 100 during the computer era?
can you help us to understand why autism has gone from 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 100 during the cell phone era?
can you help us to understand why autism has gone from 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 100 during the internet era?
Can you help us understand How vaccines cause Autism?
Can you help us understand why in spite of several studies proving that there is no link (let alone a causal one) people still cling to this?
Ubiquitin –
1. My name says it all. I’m “stam a deya”. Just an opinion. I don’t pretend to be something i’m not. As for you my friend, i strongly suggest you broaden your horizons beyond the “medical establishment”. Once this avoda zara is broken, you will be open to new ideas.
2. You did not provide me with the one study i seek because it does not exist and for obvious reasons. 1,000 or more participants or more on each side for 20 years looking at all angles.
3. I would venture to say that the anti crowd are head and shoulders above the pro in all matters of health, nutrition, exercize, etc…from the people i debate in person. it is all ??????! The medical people want to solve everything with drugs and vaccines while the anti take their health in their own hands understanding the shortcomings of doctors. I will leave the labeling of “informed” and “not informed” to you…..
4. Take a deep breath…..
Stam
1. I have, but I’d like to broaden further. Please provide a sugestion for me to read, and if I havent read it already I bl”n will. I provided you with SEVERAL studies that you requested. Have you read any of them?
2. The study you suggest is mathematicly impossible (as explained above). Please dont dodge the issue. I provided several studies that meet YOUR criteria regarding Autism. Can we agree on that? If not why not?
3. LOl! Thanks for raising my spirits. I showed examples of where you who claim ot have researche dthe subject are woefully ignorant about the aleph bais of evaluating a study. Your response was some vagaaries about “venturing to say…”
Thank you for leaving the labeling of infomed vs uninformes to me. I provided specefic areas where you are uninformed regarding matters you claim to have reasearched
4. I can not becasue of 4b. in my previous post
Sam2 – But Reb Chaim Kaneivsky, Reb Shmuel Kamenetsky, and Reb Elya Ber Wachtfogel would never say to go bungee jumping BUT THEY DO SAY NOT TO VACCINATE. So, i am in very good company. As I’m sure you will provide names on the pro-camp, my point is well understood (if you are not arguing ?????).
Stam, another point
“The medical people want to solve everything with drugs and vaccines “
This isnt quite true. The only thing I care about is evidence. If there is evidence that tantzing ah kezaktzke prevents polio, we would have the exact conversation just copy/replace vaccines with tantzing ah kezatzke. If there was evidence thta tantzing ah kezatzke caused (or was linked) to Autism, I would avoid tantzing. The “medical people” don’t advocate drugs/vaccines per se. It is an advocation of evidence, wherver it leads. Drugs are recomended and recalled as the evidence dicatates.
Owl
As A follow up to last set of “Can you explain” questions here is another:
Can you explain why in underdeveloped areas with an equal vaccination rate, the Autism rate is so much lower?
(To comlpicate it further, consider the same cant be said for the other can you explain items namely: Coputers, cellphones and internet i.e. Areas with a higher prevelance of Computers etc.. have an increased incidence of autism.)
1. Read a little on of the leaders of the anti crowd movement Barbara Joe Fisher. She was a regular mother who saw how vaccines injured her child.
2. Please forgive me, why is it mathematically impossible? don’t understand.
3. Read again. I didn’t mention “evaluating studies”, but nutrition and exercise and effect on health. Again, i wrote researched a little. I am in no way an expert.
4. Yes, my friend. Lives ARE at risk and that’s why i am posting. You should really just chill a little because even without the vaccines, the stress alone can kill you 🙂
1. My friend asked him and his exact words were “?????? ??????”
2. Reb Elya Ber is well known as he unfortunately has first hand experience. Also, quoted in Peach magazine which was distributed in Lakewood. Let’s not get into Slifkin now…..please !
3. ?????? ????? Reb Shmuel is consistent in his view and is definitely someone you can rely on. He is living proof as to the power of food & exercize on health. ??? ??? ??? he is 90 and is in better shape than all the Rosh Yeshiva’s 30 years younger who asked him to retract!
Stam
!. Thanks I’m looking forward. Do you have anything specific she wrote that you can recomend?
Also have you had a chance to read any of the studies I sent as per your request?
2. I explained earlier see http://www.theyeshivaworld.com/coffeeroom/topic/things-causing-autism-jokes#post-561945.
I will provide a seperate more detailed explanation though later this evening b”ln.
At any rate: Please dont dodge the issue. I provided several studies that meet YOUR criteria regarding Autism. Can we agree on that? If not why not?
3. how on earth can you determine if it cause harm without evaluating a study? Is your whole viewpoint based on a hunch?
4. No stress, do’nt worry Just irritated. That said you cna help by answering my simle direct questions. I have offered you the same.
I will copy paste it here so you can find it easily:
I provided several studies that meet YOUR criteria regarding Autism. Can we agree on that? If not why not?
Stam- you sound like the type who read 10 pages of the pro-vaccine book then got burnt out because you won’t have it any way besides your own.
It is very “below the belt” to say calm down, keep your cool to those debating you, especially through the computer, it is more of a cheap political type move to push through your own opinion.
It is very risky to allow these “feelings” of yours to be expressed in a public forum when you don’t really seem to understand the danger you are posing to pro-vacciners if your “feelings” are wrong.
If you even bring up the name Barbara Joe Fisher as your proof then you really don’t seem to have made it past page ten!
All of your answers imply that you didn’t once consider that which the previous people wrote you are so bent on your “feelings”.
This has nothing to do with eating healthy and nutrition this is an independent question about the effects of the vaccines and health minded people are no more informed then any one else in this matter!
OWL- you should read this previously mentioned book too and you would realize how stupid you sound linking a genetic disease with something given after birth, ridiculous!!
Incidentally, if you want to talk about skewed research, do a little bit of digging in the CDC report that has everyone jumping up and down about the extreme explosion of the incidence of Autism Spectrum Disorders. (just before you accuse me of being insensitive to people who have to deal with the effects of this disorder, let me set one thing clear: Autism has had a very direct and personal effect on my life, which, incidentally, is why I am so interested in it.)
If you look closely at their published research methods, the study dropped several states from its ‘representative sample’ since it’s last published report. Incidentally, those states that were dropped, tended to be the ones with lower rates last time around. Additionally, when collecting population samples, they clearly focused on the high population centers of the state – in some states they actually entirely left out the rural areas.
Although the collected numbers clearly indicate that Autism is on the rise in heavily populated areas (the state with, by far, the highest incidence was New Jersey), it would be hard to take seriously (for research purposes anyhow) the contention that Autism rates overall have exploded to the degree this study claims they have. Of course, since the purpose of the CDC’s report was to encourage more funding for autism research, that would make sense. it’s kind of like the CSE reports that schools carefully write to make sure that the child appears to be progressing, but also is clearly dependent on special services. This kind of research is meant only to obtain money for other, more sound research.
Interestingly enough, while there are many factors that make living in a high density population area different from more rural settings, prevelance of vaccination is not among them.
Oh yes, and one more thing – The first use of the term Autism as a diagnosis (which was, at the time, called a form of childhood schitzophrenia), was in 1911. That is only a little over 100 years ago. It would therefore not be surprising in the slightest for the rate of diagnosis to have increased 100 times since then. You see, in 1911, there was only 1 person diagnosing people as Autistic, there was not a clear definition of the disorder, and it was not widely recognized.
Stam: I have an idea. Instead of insisting that, since nobody did the research you want it must be because they’re all trying to hide something, how about you set up, design, and write a proposal for this research project?
But…I don’t understand your anger.
1. The pro-vaccine book is discredited by a profit making researcher. In Judaism that’s called ?????? !
2. I’m saying to calm down because there is no reason to personalize or get angry but just to have a friendly chat about an important topic. In Judaism it’s called ?? ????? ???? ?’ ??? ?? ????
3. I am only bringing up points for others to ponder. I am not being ???? ?????? with my ?????. In Judaism it’s called ??? ???? ??? ?????
4. The reason I bring up health it’s because you will almost always find the anti crowd being more health oriented taking a proactive stand on their health etc…that speaks volumes. In Judaism that’s called ??????? ???? ?????????
Stam
Continuation of #2 above.
In order to understand why the study you demand is impossible we need to discuss (briefly) an overview of study design.
you begin with a theory that you want to test, say Vaccines cause autism (or more accuratly are linked to autism) Or lets take a simple example you have a coin you suspect is an uneven coin.
You know want to design an experiment to determine if your coin is uneven (lets assume an even coin has a 50/50 shot of landing on heads) so you set up a “null hypothesis” That is that there is no difference between your suspicious coin and a regular coin. Our experiment will be designed to determine whether we should accept or reject the null hypothesis in favor of the “alternate hypothesis” which in this case would be that the coin is uneven.
Now obviously simply flipping the coin once and getting heads doesnt tell you to much. nor does flipping it twice even if both are heads, after all flipping an even coin twice would be expected to result in 2 heads 25% of the time This hardly proves the coin is uneven. Obviously you will have to flip your coin several times.
Now lets take it to the other extreme. Say you flip your coin 100 times and all 100 are heads. Is it impossible to have occurred by chance alone? Of course not, while admittedly suspicious it is POSSIBLE that you have an uneven coin and the unlikely occured. What to do with the hypothesis? To make it more complicated what if the split was 90 heads to 10 tails or 70 to 30 or 55 heads to 45 tails. Which of these splits are “statistically significant” proving that your coin is uneven and which are expected occurrence of chance?
To answer this question a “p value” is needed. The p value is a calculation of how likely the outcome is to occur based on chance alone. Generally a p value less than 0.05 or 5% is used. This means that in any significant study with a p value less than 5%, there is a less than 5% chance that the outcome occurred based on chance alone. By flipping a coin 100 times yielding 90 heads the p value is 0.0045 (I totally made this up, maybe charliehall can help if hes bored) this means that there is a 4.5% chance that the outcome occurred randomly which leads us to reject the null hypothesis and conclude that the coin is uneven.
So far so good?
Ok now on to your study
stam-
1. The anti-vaccine studies are all backed and funded by injury lawyers.
2.no one got angry. it’s your way of portraying your opposition as emotion based…
3.you are causing innocent readers to possibly endanger themselves and their children based on your ignorance and feigned knowledge.
4.apparantly you are ignoring or didn’t understand the last comment I made on the previous post… just because you are a health nut that doesn’t connect the facts of vaccine research to anything to do with healthy eating, or nutrition.
But….
1. That’s what you say based on Dr. Profit’s book. Think for a second. Do you think the profits of injury lawyers comes to the toes of drug companies making literally billions a year???
2. Not at all. He himself admitted to getting irritated.
3. It goes both ways…..
4. You obviously didn’t understand what i wrote. You will find almost always that the “health nuts” are the ones that are anti-vaccine.
Finally, I wonder if you have the attributes of ???? ????? ???? in this ????? to understand what’s happening in this discussion between us. ???? ??”? ?????? ?”? ?”?
Stam I never said angry. Im merely irritated. Its annoying that refuse to answer simple direct questions. I have spent time educating you about so many points that you are so uninformed about. (Sinai? Oker harim? Dont make me laugh you dont know the aleph bais of the sugya). The least I deserve are answers to direct questions, even if you cant reply to every point.
Ubiquiten-
You DO deserve an answer and i apologize i did not respond yet. But your post will take some time to digest and i don’t have the ???? ???? for that before pesach. I hope to get to it ??? ???. Didn’t mean to irritate you …..
Thanks Stam. I’m looking forward
stam-
1.Ok, resort to name calling, that will get us very far! It’s not about profit versus profit it is about how the whole anti-vaccine side is funded by injury lawyers.
3. no it doesn’t! you are the only uninformed one that continues to spout ignorance despite some pretty solid ta’anos against you!
4.It’s a strange coincidence that all the health nuts have their facts wrong…
ubiquitn- I suspect that stam has a 5 page shtickle written up on Sinai and oker harim… so don’t assume!!….
Bump
He thinks it’s Kfirah to argue with Rishonim on sciene-i.e. it’s Kfirah to say that the earth revolves around the sun.
Melamed L’ho-il 1:30:
??????? ?????? ????’ ??? ?”? ??? ???? ?? ????? ??????? ????? ??? ???? ??????
Re akuperma’s first comment: As usual, you got it backwards. Jews’ buying matza and wine causes warmer weather.
Why would I take offense? Anyway, I’m not saying that R’ Elya Ber can’t argue. I’m just saying that according to (your representation of) him, R’ Dovid Tzvi Hoffman is guilty of kefira. As is the Chasam Sofer (Nidda 18a):
??? ??????? ???? ??? ????? ????? ???? ?????? ??? ????? ??????? ???? ????? ?????? ?”? ??? ?????? ??????? ????? ????”? ????’ ????? ???”? ??????
And R’ Yosef Karo (Kesef Mishneh Berachos 8:5):
???? ???? ????? ??? ???? ???? ?????? ?????? ?? ???? ?? ??? ???? ??
etc. etc.
I came across an interesing mareh makom. See Tiferes Yisroel to Avos 3:14
http://hebrewbooks.org/pdfpager.aspx?req=37946&st=&pgnum=347
where he says That Jenner (the father of modern vaccines) is one of the chasidei umos Haolam, and recieving olam haba for saving ens of thousands from death and disease
This is for Stam.
if you do a quick google search for The New England Journal of Medicine, November 7 2002, A population based study of measles mumps and rubella vaccination and autism,
You will find the exact study for which you have been looking for. the study was done on over 500K children over many years.
Stam
I hope you had a nice Pesach. I am still awaiting a reply to my question posed to you.
To recap
You stated ” I challenge you to find one study comparing 1,000 vaccinated children to 1,000 non-vaccinated children so we can compare how many get damaged from vaccines.”
You then said this would “settle the case once and for all !” You made several silly demands regarding the study which I explained werent possible. At any rate I provided SEVERAL studies above demonstrating that there is no link whatsoever between Autism and Vaccines.
I asked you severla times to either acknowledge this point and, in your words, “settle the case once and for all” or refute the studies.
You then dodged the question with “your post will take some time to digest and i don’t have the ???? ???? for that before pesach.”
It is now over a week after Pesach and you have yet to reply…
Incidentally, what prompted me to revisit this, was that waiting in my mailbox at home was the latest issue of JAMA it is dedicated to child health and on page 1534 is yet ANOTHER study demonstrating no harmful association between MMR vaccine and Autism, this time even among children already at higher risk for Autism.
It is entitled “Autism occurrence by MMR Vaccine Status Among US Children with Older Siblings with and Without Autism” They looked at 95,727 children hope that is enough.
As soon as you are done “digesting” the earlier studies Ive sent you please peruse this one as well.
Bump.
This latest study is actually one of the top stories on Yahoo and AOL. You dont have to go far to find info on this latest study.
Historical evidence compiled in the recently published book, Dissolving Illusions – Disease, Vaccines, and the Forgotten History, by Suzanne Humphries MD, provides compelling evidence that much of what vaccines are credited for doing was actually the result of better hygiene, sanitation and accurate medical diagnosis. The book is filled with documented evidence, fully referenced with archival data.
The study was conducted by the Lewin Group.
The Lewin Group is part of Ingenix, a UnitedHealth
subsidiary that was accused by the New York attorney general and the
American Medical Association of helping insurers shift medical expenses
to consumers by distributing skewed data.
owl
I will read the book b”ln sounds interesting. Though only tangentially related to the subject at hand, namely the overwhelming evidence indicating no link between Autism and vaccines.
Not sure what your point is with your second comment, did you stop mid paragraph?
Hi Ubiquitin. Yes, Pesach is over and I still have no time. I will admit that i am ignorant on the issue and i do not have the credentials to evaluate the safety of vaccines properly. I usually do not have open internet so i cannot research properly. Even Yeshivaworld is usually blocked because it takes away a lot of time from learning (which I usually do!) since it is so geshmack! But, I will comment on Jama report. I googled the sponsors which are the Federal Govt. which i do not trust for anything (and anyone who knows anything about health – which i do research alot – knows). Are there any studies with both sides of argument who can monitor the issue? That i would respect! I want to reiterate that I am not pro or anti but i do lean towards anti since the people i trust in health (i.e. naturalists) are anti. I am after all STAM A DEYA nothing more…. I myself lack any credintials to make up my own mind (kind of like the talmid that depends on his Rebbeim….). There is simply too much money made 17 billion a year in Big Pharm and the politicians they support to believe them. Hope all this makes sense. Sorry if I wasted your time in this regard. Have a great Shabbos!
Stam
You dont have to admit you are ignorant on the issue, that has been pretty clear throughout your posts. There is nothing wrong with ignorance that is how we learn. I too was once ignorant on the issue and have spent time researching it, now I am no longer ignorant. I am more than happy to help educate you or any others who have questions (writing off a study because some of the funding came from the government isnt a question it is paranoid fear mongering that isnt evidence based, naturally I cant argue with that, besides the government didnt fund it the authors are affiliated with the Lewin Group which is a private group)
There is no need to apologize, I am happy to educate. Always question it is what makes us human and is how you will grow. However in order to grow you when faced with overwhelming evidence contrary to your preconceived notions you must be willing to change your mind.
The only thing that does disappoint me is that I fell for you. Most discussions with anti-vaccine/pro-disease people ends this way. Yet when you said “I challenge you to find one study comparing 1,000 vaccinated children to 1,000 non-vaccinated children so we can compare how many get damaged from vaccines. Surely if vaccines are as safe as you say, let the company spend a few million dollars (what they make from one vaccine in one year!) and settle the case once and for all !” I foolishly believed you.
Turns out that was a lie, and I fell for it.
No sir, you do not understand. I know people first hand who were injured from vaccines. No “study” in the world will convince me otherwise – surely not from the govt. The only question is autism. There is no doubt that it causes injuries. The only question is if benefits outweigh the risks…..
And unless you are educated in both alleopathic and natural medicine, you cannot understand the effects of vaccines. Are you educated in that regard?
I know people personally who suffered severe harmful effects from ADHD medications. But that doesn’t mean anything to anyone but those people.
Ubiquitin –
“Pro-disease”…nice turn of the phraseology.
Stam – the point you seem consistently to evade in all of this is that although there are side effects to vaccines, the benefit so far outweighs the risk that it is dangerous to pretend otherwise.
Whether the people you claim to have seen get injured by taking vaccines actually came to their situation that way or not is irrelevant.
This is not to say that we do not empathize with people suffering from Autism or any other type of disease or condition; of course we feel terrible for these people.
The main point is that the overwhelming, vast majority of people are healthy and not at risk for crippling, debilitating, life threatening diseases because of vaccines.
The size of the study is roughly the population of the developed world. The time of the study is ever since vaccines have been developed.
I categorically reject the notion that the entire medical and pharmaceutical establishments, along with all Western governments, are participating in this massive conspiracy to destroy people for money.
Sorry, doesn’t work.
Stam
you made both the following staments:
“No “study” in the world will convince me otherwise”
So you admit that you lied when you said “Surely if vaccines are as safe as you say, let the company spend a few million dollars (what they make from one vaccine in one year!) and settle the case once and for all “
since you now say you cant be convinced by studies?
“Are you educated in that regard?”
It depends what you mean by alternative medicine National Science Foundation defines it as “all treatments that have not been proven effective using scientific methods” No I have not studied guesswork. Evidence is all that matters to me, nor do anecdotes about the people you know matter (though of course I feel sorry for them and wish them a refua sheleima if they are still injured).
If you mean am I educated in dangerous side effects that “natural” medicines have. Yes very educated!
At any rate how is this related to the subject at hand namely that there is ZERO link between vaccines and Autism. This has been proven in study after study after study
Ubiquitin is right on the ball!
It is much easier for someone with as little knowledge as stam a deya to keep periodically posting these little “but…” snippets than for ubiquitin and others to answer them, because they’re based on guesses and assumed facts with an underlying current of conspiracy theories, POSING as logical answers for facts and obvious logic!
stam represents the perfect example of how the anti-vaccine movement is fooling people…
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