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Thanks for letting me know I’m out of the Parsha. I didn’t realize that.
Yes, it was an ignorant thing for Health to say.
This I disagree with. The facts are they can find dates with older guys. I and many guys I know would go out with these girls. The only reason they can’t find dates is because they are picky.
Where in the Torah does it say an excuse not to get married because the guy is 20 -30 years older? I discussed this in detail in my topic of “Who wants to be a Tzdaiekes like Rus?”.
But see http://www.theyeshivaworld.com/coffeeroom/topic/who-wants-to-marry-a-tzadeikes-like-esther
Also, your point is not relevant, since it does not negate the result that I am proving. If indeed the only way to match up all the girls with on a 1:1 ratio with guys is to match up 12 year old girls with 60 year old guys, then that shows a serious numbers mismatch.
I’m confused. I don’t have statistics to prove it but anecdotal evidence would seem to indicate there is no shidduch crisis among chassidim who have an arranged marriage system, where almost always the bochur is older than the girl. Furthermore it is a very fast growing population. In short, this completely refutes NASI’s mistaken theory.
I’m confused. I don’t have statistics to prove it but anecdotal evidence would seem to indicate there is no shidduch crisis among chassidim who have an arranged marriage system, where almost always the bochur is older than the girl. Furthermore it is a very fast growing population. In short, this completely refutes NASI’s mistaken theory.
To the contrary their couples are usually far closer in age than ours, and this proves the NASI theory.
popa, then why are they not advocating that bochrim should start dating at 17 or 18 like chassidim do?
there IS a shidduch crisis in that there are not enough shadchanim!
’nuff said.
writersoul,
How do you know the chicken statistic isn’t true? Not because you’ve done a scientific study and produced contrary statistics, but rather because there is overwhelming anecdotal evidence to the contrary.
In the case of the shidduch crisis, there is overwhelming anecdotal evidence that girls have a harder time getting dates than boys. A statistical study would be useful to know exactly what the ratios are and it might help us determine the cause of the discrepancy but we don’t need statistics to know there is a problem.
Health,
This has all probably been discussed before but the S”A does not require a woman to get married. It only requires a man to get married. Second, Even HaEzer 2:9 expressly states that a young man should not marry an old woman and an old man should not marry a young woman. See also Yevamos 106b the mishna and the first Rashi on the page.
popa, then why are they not advocating that bochrim should start dating at 17 or 18 like chassidim do?
I don’t know. And I don’t think that is enough for you to conclude that the chassidim don’t get married with a smaller age gap.
Perhaps among some demographics of Jews there is no shidduch crisis, for WHATEVER the reason (and B”H for that, as it works for that specific group). The rest of us, however, might not be chassidim arranging shidduchim for and marrying off 18 year olds. In our group, there is a definite crisis going on, where more and more wonderful young women (and to be fair, some young men, too), are NOT meeting each other and at age 30 are still single.
What proves NASI’s theory even further is that in Belz where it’s common for the girl to be older than the boy there are more older boys than older girls.
Haifagirl – he’s a graphologist and he was able to glean that info from your posts
benignuman: If all my chickens died five minutes after I cut off their heads, and someone did a carefully controlled, randomly selected scientific study of chickens and found out that 77% of chickens last a week without their heads, then I’d conclude that all of my chickens are part of the 23%. Then I’d have to figure out- why MY chickens and not the chickens they chose? Am I taking care of them differently? Are mine the wrong breed?
The point is that once a statistical study emerges, the anecdotal evidence doesn’t necessarily cut it anymore.
What you’re talking about now (which is NOT what you said before) is that if you DON’T HAVE STATISTICS, anecdotal evidence works. Perhaps, but with ONLY anecdotal evidence you can’t be sure you’re reading your information correctly. You see the evidence of your own eyes, true, but you don’t know what’s the cause and what’s the effect- and that’s what I think is the problem with NASI, not so much that they’re necessarily WRONG (they may well be right for all I know) but that they think theirs is the ONLY right answer, which locks out so many other possibilities.
Haifagirl – he’s a graphologist and he was able to glean that info from your posts
LOL
If this is such an important issue to us, then why doesn’t someone actually commission a real scientific study rather than just guessing about if there is a problem and what is causing it?
DY -“Thanks for letting me know I’m out of the Parsha. I didn’t realize that.
Yes, it was an ignorant thing for Health to say.”
It’s just the rule -there are exceptions to every rule!
If this is such an important issue to us, then why doesn’t someone actually commission a real scientific study rather than just guessing about if there is a problem and what is causing it?
Yes, that should be done.
writersoul,
I am not talking about some fictional scenarios like the one you painted. I am talking about in the real world today. Statistics are a useful way to analyzing evidence, but if they are contrary to widespread well known anecdotal evidence (even if that evidence has never been formally subject to a study) then the statistics should be rejected. My point is that while generally statistical evidence is superior to anecdotal evidence, that is not always the case.
I am not saying NASI is right about the cause of boy/girl discrepancy in our communities but that such a discrepancy exists is undeniable.
It’s just the rule -there are exceptions to every rule!
other people would have said,”sorry”
PBO -“Also, your point is not relevant, since it does not negate the result that I am proving. If indeed the only way to match up all the girls with on a 1:1 ratio with guys is to match up 12 year old girls with 60 year old guys, then that shows a serious numbers mismatch.”
I wasn’t disagreeing with that -I was disagreeing with this:
“PBO -1. Overwhelming anecdotal evidence. Everyone who is involved in shidduchim knows that there are way more girls than boys. This is proven by the simple observation that boys are able to go on dates any time they please, while most girls are practically scrounging for dates. It is simply undeniable.”
You said way too many girls in general. If you would have said there are way too many girls than boys The Same Age, I wouldn’t have had a problem with this.
Mean what you say and say what you mean!
Syag Lchochma -“other people would have said,”sorry””
Stop constantly looking to find fault in everything I do.
Saying a statement which I believe is a rule and s/o takes offense personally to it -doesn’t mean I did something wrong.
And this is why I posted that it was a rule -a rule doesn’t apply to every single last one.
benignuman -“Health, This has all probably been discussed before”
Yes it has; -so I’m wondering why you are repeating it? Did you change your SN from that topic and want to “prove” you’re right -or you don’t want to look up what I posted there?
“but the S”A does not require a woman to get married. It only requires a man to get married.”
Not True! And the Mareh Mokom is in my previous topic!
“Second, Even HaEzer 2:9 expressly states that a young man should not marry an old woman and an old man should not marry a young woman.”
Like I posted in that topic, your definition is Not that of the Torahs’. A 50 -60 yo man is Not considered a Zakein, nor is an 18 yo or up woman considered a Yalda.
But keep trying to change the Halacha because you don’t like my posts. In my definition s/o who changes the meaning of Halacha for their own or anyone else’s PC is called being Megaleh Ponim B’Torah Shelo K’halacha!
Stop constantly looking to find fault in everything I do.
That has GOT to be the funniest thing you have EVER said.
Syag Lchochma -“That has GOT to be the funniest thing you have EVER said.”
Funny -each time I post this to you -you say the same thing. Come up with a new line.
oh Health, stop finding fault in everything I do
Health,
The previous topic is long and I do not have the patience to comb through it to find where the S”A says a woman has a chiyuv to get married. It isn’t in the first siman in Even HaEzer (where a man’s chiyuv is brought down).
As far as a I know the Gemara does not define Zakein and Yalda in this context. The pashtus is that a person should marry someone like them so to avoid discord in their home (see Rashi to Yevamos 106b that I cited above).
In first page of the thread you cited above, you were trying to read the Gemara to apply only to someone doing Yibum when they have another wife. The S”A I cited demonstrates that you are wrong. It seems that you are using a different out now to support your position which you arrived at without knowing the Shulchan Aruch. So please look in the mirror before you start lecturing people on m’gale panim baTorah shelo k’halacho.
I don’t need an apology. Health entitled to his (her?) opinion.
“I am not talking about some fictional scenarios like the one you painted. I am talking about in the real world today. Statistics are a useful way to analyzing evidence, but if they are contrary to widespread well known anecdotal evidence (even if that evidence has never been formally subject to a study) then the statistics should be rejected. My point is that while generally statistical evidence is superior to anecdotal evidence, that is not always the case.”
I used YOUR scenario. (Why would I randomly bring up chickens? Uuurgh.)
If anecdotal evidence differs from scientifically collected and analyzed data, the first thing to think shouldn’t be, “hey, the stats must be wrong.” The first thing to think should be “so WHY do conditions where I am completely counteract what the statistics say is typical?” Remember, we’re not talking about statistics pulled out of a hat- we’re presuming that someone went out and actually did take a scientific survey. (Which, of course, means that this whole conversation is completely ridiculous as there has been NO such study of the shidduch crisis.)
If such a survey was taken, and this counteracted YOUR PERSONAL ANECDOTAL EVIDENCE- well, that just means that you’re in the wrong place. Let’s say that in general, the study shows that 77% of girls get married within 3 years of sem. In your neighborhood, this is only the case in 34% of cases. All this means is that your neighborhood tends to fall more in the 23% of people who do NOT conform with the majority. That’s fine. The question is, WHY? Maybe your neighborhood has some particular issue that’s preventing its girls from getting married.
This is just an illustration, but in general, it’s not a good idea to throw away statistics because they really can be beneficial in narrowing down the problem.
My views on applying this to the shidduch crisis and NASI are above.
writersoul:
I think ben is trying to say that sometimes a statistical study will be way wrong, and if it is obviously wrong, the intelligent thing to do is to ignore it.
We generally consider something statistically significant if the results are 2 standard deviations off the mean assuming the null hypothesis. Yet, 5% of surveys will yield a result that is 2 standard deviations off the mean! So 5% of them are wrong.
Usually, we assume we are in the 95% which are correct. But if I see with my own eyes that the results are wrong, I won’t.
Here is my example:
I have 100 children, and I think that there are 50 boys and 50 girls (big family, I’m mormon). But just to make sure, I do a survey, and randomly ask 20 children if they are a boy or a girl. All 20 are girls. Do I conclude that all my children are girls?
writersoul,
I don’t think we are really disagreeing. My point was only that for something very well known for which there are widespread (not just personal) anecdotal reports from all over (not just in one’s immediate vicinity) statistical claims to the contrary will be disregarded as faulty or fraudulent.
If someone would try to publish a study saying that most chickens can live without heads for a week, that study would be rejected without anyone checking the work in the study. It would be rejected because the conclusion is ridiculous in light of the overwhelming anecdotal evidence to the contrary.
If someone were to try and publish a study saying that the average frum but not chassidish girl had as many dates as the average frum but not chassidish boy, I would reject that study as faulty or fraudulent.
PBA (sorry, PBO): When I say a scientific survey, I assume that statistical analyses have been performed, such as standard deviation and chi square. (Trust me, I’m an ex-AP Bioer- I know of what I speak…)
A study such as one you describe would never pass these tests, as you point out.
benignuman: Statistical tests such as the ones describe above could be helpful in disregarding a statistic WITHOUT just doing so because it feels right.
Just as an illustration of what I mean-
Let’s say the American divorce rate is 50%. But wait- where I live, I know of very few people who are divorced or who have been divorced? That, however, is because I live in the Orthodox Jewish community, and there are fewer divorces.
That, as I mentioned, is what I don’t like about NASI- they lump all problems together, when specialization to uncover the roots of the problem may be a better idea.
writer: of course my study is statistically valid.
Here are the numbers:
The population is 100. I assign a value of 1 to girls and 0 to boys. My null hypothesis is that the underlying population mean is .5
My sample size is 20, randomly chosen. My sample mean is 1.
Thus, the standard deviation of the population as hypothesized is .5 (sqroot of .5*.5).
The standard deviation of sample means is .11
My sample mean was 1, which means it is almost 5 standard deviations off of my hypothesized population mean. So I can certainly reject my null hypothesis.
This is what really bothered me about his post:
“9. Let’s say more girls leave our circles than guys do, then we need to know what percentage that is before we draw conclusions.
Discussions with people in the field have yielded that the number of guys who leave our circles to never come back and marry in our circles, is in no way more significant than the number of girls who go the same route.
I challenge, NASI and whomever else is involved in this, to make the data public so the community can assess if the simple story they are telling us holds water. They can set up a website, make it available for download and redact any personal information.”
END QUOTE
I believe that the “people in the field” have a very narrow view of what is happening. In the yeshivish and Hassidish worlds, it is correct to say that “the number of guys who leave our circles” is equal to the number of girls. Part of the reason for that is that they don’t have secular education that would allow them to earn a living after they left “our circles”. Shift your focus to the boys who get a secular education that is good enough to get them into college and you will see that many, many more boys leave “our circles”. You can confirm this anecdotally by seeing that the girls interested in “Earner-Learners” have a much worse Shidduch crisis than the ones interested in budding Talmidei Chachamim.
“Girls seeking Earners/learners who have not married by age 24” vs. “Girls seeking Talmedei Chachaim who have not married by age 24” is a statistic that can easily be compiled by any Shadchan. The Lakewood statistic would probably work for the “girls seeking Talmidei Chachamim”.
If the Shadchan statistic indicates I am correct, then it would behoove someone to pay for a real statistical study. For example, go through eighth grade graduation records for every male day school graduate in Baltimore from 5 years ago or 10 years ago. Track them down and ask them whether they still keep Shabbos, Kashrus and YichudNegiah according to the most lenient Orthodox opinion. Then do the same for the girls and compare the numbers. The difference amongst the schools will become obvious if I am correct.
Writersoul, you don’t know what’s the cause and what’s the effect- and that’s what I think is the problem with NASI, not so much that they’re necessarily WRONG (they may well be right for all I know) but that they think theirs is the ONLY right answer, which locks out so many other possibilities.
It doesn’t have to be the only answer. If they’re right, than aside from whatever else ails our society, the numbers issue must be addressed if the issue is to be resolved.
I’m not sure why they haven’t stressed this, but their being correct is not only based on anecdotal evidence of more single girls than boys. Even if I would have no observation of how many older singles there are and the disparity, just knowing that there’s a gap and population growth would predict such a disparity. Of course, one can argue that there’s no gap, and that we don’t typically have large families and a growing population, because there are no studies. At some point, though, it just becomes ridiculous to deny the obvious.
PBO: Sorry, I didn’t put that well. I meant that the null hypothesis would have to be rejected, meaning that I would obviously not regard that as a statistical result to take seriously. In my posts, I’ve been emphasizing that I talk about statistics that have already been proven valid.
DY: To draw a comparison to something going on in current events, let’s look at Myriad Genetics and its monopoly on the BRCA-1 and -2 genes. Why do people think that’s a problem? Because this company now has exclusive rights to the gene, so that they have no motivation to outdo anyone else to find a cure for breast cancer. In addition, no other company is able to look for a cure.
That, I feel, is basically what’s happening here. NASI takes over the airwaves, saying that the whole reason for the shidduch crisis is the age gap, period. You see it happening here- people say, well, maybe it could have something to do with this, and then others shoot it down screaming, “AGE GAP!” Now, every other possibility needs to fit within the framework of the age gap, and people are specifically focusing efforts on the age gap.
Another issue I have with all these limitations on dating bichlal is just that does this mean that anybody can marry anybody? I was under the impression that there is one bashert (maybe more at different stages according to some shittos), and let’s say your bashert is five years older than you, with this method you’ll never meet him/her. Perhaps this is just my misunderstanding the concept of bashert (which as I’m in eleventh grade doesn’t seem all that applicable to me yet… 🙂 ), but it’s something I don’t really understand. My parents are six years apart- if NASI had been encouraged back when they were dating they may never have met, and does that mean that they would never have gotten married or (scarier idea for me, at least) that they would have married other people?
benignuman -“The previous topic is long and I do not have the patience to comb through it to find where the S”A says a woman has a chiyuv to get married. It isn’t in the first siman in Even HaEzer (where a man’s chiyuv is brought down).”
From that topic:
“You were wrong before and you’re still wrong. Women are “Mechuyavot”!
From Shulchan Aruch – Even Haezer – 1:13.”
“As far as a I know the Gemara does not define Zakein and Yalda in this context. The pashtus is that a person should marry someone like them so to avoid discord in their home (see Rashi to Yevamos 106b that I cited above).”
That’s your mistake in they way you’re learning up the Gemorras.
Also from that topic:
“This statement is totally farfetched. No where does the S’A even come close to saying this. Like I previously posted the S’A is very specific what type of potentional husband you can deny yourself from marrying. Sorry, an ill advised marriage isn’t one of them (age gap). As a matter of fact, the S’A uses a totally different reason for Zakain and Yalda, the reason is because of Zenus. If the S’A agreed with you about ill advised marriage, why pick on Zakain and Yalda, any age gap like a 20 y.o. to a 40 y.o. would suffice? And most importantly, why come up with a new reason of Zenus, just quote the Braisa in Yevamos that says age gap can cause Ketotoh. So it’s obvious the S’A didn’t hold your Putter because the marriage is ill advised.”
There is even more there. Why ask Kashas on me when I most probably already dealt with them?
Shoe store assistant and gefen +2 [is that right?]
Obviously bitachon and histadlus have to go together.
To everyone else, i would just like to point out, that around 200 years ago a galoch called Thomas Malthuis came up with a theory that there will soon be far to may people round for the world’s resources, and since then numerous peole have taken ti seriously, and done all sorts of histadlus.
However, as they say, Hashem had the last word.
Zushy – thanks and welcome aboard the cr. And btw – impressive yichus you have!
thanx for the welcome
Health,
Are you quoting a different Shulchan Aruch (maybe Shulchan Aruch HaRav)?
In the standard Shulchan Aruch by the Bais Yosef, Even HaEzer 1:13 says that woman are not mechayavot in pru u’r’vu. The Rama says that some say that she should still not remain without a man because people will be choshed her. The Be’er Heitiv says for a woman getting married is a reshus, and this Rama is based on eitza tova.
Zaken and Yalda are not specific terms with specific meaning they are general terms. The point of marrying someone compatable with you is to avoid fights and discord in the home. Zaken and Yalda in the gemara are just an example of something that would cause discord.
You are correct that the Shulchan Aruch appears to give a different reason than Rashi on the Mishna, but that mishna is the listed as the source. I can think of a teretz but I would like to look into it further.
Health – ur at it again. Surprise Surprise!
“It’s just the rule -there are exceptions to every rule!
other people would have said,”sorry”” I totally agree with Syag!
And your comment “Stop constantly looking to find fault in
everything I do.” is totally backward – you’re the one finding fault with everyone else.
Haifagirl: “I don’t need an apology. Health entitled to his (her?) opinion.” Hey she was trying to help you, and I agree with her. For a former Chicagoan, you should stick with us.
I certainly appreciate all those coming to my aid, but I’m really not that thin-skinned.
haifa – Nobody said you’re thin skinned. It’s just that people do appreciate when others agree with them, or stick up for them. But,I guess it doesn’t matter to you.
Also Health has a history of…shall we say…. not being so nice (to put it mildly).
gefen -“Also Health has a history of…shall we say…. not being so nice (to put it mildly).”
It seems you and Syag never heard of something called Nekama. Are you two related?
The statement was made regarding Shidduchim and older women w/o anyone particular in mind. I stand by my statement. If you want to argue how about bringing some proof?
benignuman -“The Rama says that some say that she should still not remain without a man because people will be choshed her. The Be’er Heitiv says for a woman getting married is a reshus, and this Rama is based on eitza tova.”
It doesn’t seem we Pasken like this B’H because of the Piskey Teshuva there. Look it up. Also R’ Aikva Eiger gives a Teretz to the Rambam so there is No Raya and the Halacha from the Rema that it’s a Chiyuv D’rabbonim will remain.
Nekama? Try tochacha. Try encouraging someone to be metaken his harsher side. Try asking someone to be kinder in his online conversations. You get it all the time from so many posters and yet you think it’s just me and it’s nekama? Wow.
Syag Lchochma -“Try tochacha. Try encouraging someone to be metaken his harsher side. Try asking someone to be kinder in his online conversations. You get it all the time from so many posters and yet you think it’s just me and it’s nekama? Wow.”
Attacking s/o about a post that was not refering to anyone in particular is Nekama, not Tochacha. Stop deciding that everything I post is wrong because you have it in for me.
“Wow” -Does this mean you belong to the group of Womem of the Wall?
- The topic ‘There is NO Shidduch Crisis’ is closed to new replies.