There is NO Shidduch Crisis

Sorry, that is copyright violation

Frum world does hysterics better than the Italians do pasta.

It’s part of our genetic makeup.

crisisoftheweek +++1,000

Great post!

There is one major difference though, between frum world hysterics and Italian pasta:

Italians have been cooking pasta for hundreds (over 1,000?) of years. Just a short while ago in historical terms, (definitely less than 100 years) the frum world, and the whole Jewish world for that matter, responded to crises with Tehillim, with tefillah, with teshuva & tachanunim. It’s our sophisticated generation that has decided to address every problem by throwing money at it and putting ads in the papers about it in the belief that this will cause the problem to hang its head in shame and slink away.

Will try one more time:

Hope the mods let it thru.

don’t know why you hope the mods will break the law. We cannot reprint copyrighted articles without permission from the copyright holder.

Hi Reuvein,

The shidduch crisis and age gap concept, were NOT discovered by a statistical analysis of how many girls are still single post 28 years old or whatever arbitrary age we would like to use, and contrasting that with the number of older boys who are single. It is almost impossible to accurately count the total number of singles at any given time.

Are there some guys still single? Certainly, but the number of known girls who have dated 5/10 years and are still single dwarfs their male counterparts by very significant numbers.

The question then became why? How could this be?

The two observations are as follows.

1. Our population is growing i.e. younger grades are significantly larger than older grades and as such the number of young adults turning 19 each year is significantly larger than the number of young adults turning 23 each year. This population growth is obvious to the naked eye, and has been supported by numerous studies, see below. There is certainly room for discussion to figure out the exact ratio of population growth. Such discussion will affect the determination of the precise number of projected leftover young women. But however one counts the growth rate is such as to have a significant discrepancy between young adults age 19 and young adults age 23.

2. The age at which young women in our communities seek to marry is a few years earlier than the age at which young men seek to marry. And the inevitable results is that the average age of a young man as the time of marriage is a few years older than the average age of a young woman at the time of marriage. There has been no scientific statistical study of this second observation, but it is self evident. Once again there is room to discuss the exact average age gap between husband and wife. It may be 3 years, it may be 4 years, but it should be clear to all that it is significant.

Thus, if we take these two observations to their obvious conclusion, that there are far more 19 year olds in our communities then there are 23 year olds, and we realize that young men first begin shidduchim mid to upper 22 and young women begin shidduchim around 19, it is obvious that we have a significant problem on our hands.

One can study the data of population growth, and one can try to guesstimate the average discrepancy amongst starting dating ages, and the results of such study will certainly have a variance as to the total number of projected girls who are unmatched. But all would agree that the result is very significant and worrisome, even if there is a variance as to the exact number/percentage of women who will unfortunately remain unmatched.

One more important point, the projected number of unmatched young women as a result of the age gap concept, is NOT the total number of girls who are unmarried after 5/10 years of dating. This is the projected number of girls who will remain unmarried even if every young man gets married. For every young man that stays unmarried, that will cause another young woman to unmarried. Thus the total number of girls who are unmarried after 5/10 years of dating is above and beyond the number of girls projected to be unmatched due to age gap.

With this introduction we can now address your specific questions.

1. We are never told what percentages of guys are single?

2. How many of the young woman in question might not be on the yeshivish shidduch market at this point?

The number 10% is not related to yeshivish style dating

3. What percentage of this statistic are divorced or widowed?

10% is the number of older girls who cannot be married at any given time even if every available boy is married.

The actual number of older unmarried girls at any given time is higher because there are of course some boys who are not married. So if 3% of older boys are unmarried at any given time then there will be actually 13% of older girls not married.

The number of girls who cannot ever be married is impossible to guess. It’s even possible that every girl could get married at some point in her life. Suppose we make a (ridiculous) rule that every marriage has to end after 10 years. Of course now we can play merry go round and the women who didn’t get a husband the first go round can find a husband the second go round. But at every point there will be 10% who can’t be married plus an additional percentage who are actually not married at any given time because of the number of men that are single at that point in time.

Similarly suppose there is a 50% divorce rate. Then the girls who weren’t married the first time can find husbands from guys who had previously been married (at the expense of the girls who are now divorced). This by the way is a primary factor in why women who have previously been married (divorcees or widows) have a much harder time getting married a second time, as opposed to men in a similar position looking to get married a second time around.

4. We know nothing about the methodology of the study. Did the people who collected the data control for other factors? How big was the sample? How many years of data do they have?

5. How many of the people involved in propagating this simple math have a working understanding of statistics let alone graduated high school?

6. What is the confidence level of the study?

Anyone who would like to receive specific detailed technical information on the studies that were done as well as be put in contact with the people who did the research, is welcome to contact the NASI Project

A few points;

[Dr. Marvin Shick, Avi Chai Foundation, http://www.avichai.org/knowledge-center. as well as other sources.

c. The research was done by different people at different times who reached the same conclusions.

7. I did a quick sampling of guys about age 30 and in many classes 7-11% are still single. So according to my, possibly, equally unscientific data, the gap between percentage of guys single and young woman single is statistically insignificant.

8. Let’s say that in one city 17% percent of a class is single and in another 3% is. When we average the two classes we will get 10%, but we would be better served and we would be helping those singles more, if we looked for a reason specific to that city.

9. Let’s say more girls leave our circles than guys do, then we need to know what percentage that is before we draw conclusions.

Discussions with people in the field have yielded that the number of guys who leave our circles to never come back and marry in our circles, is in no way more significant than the number of girls who go the same route.

I challenge, NASI and whomever else is involved in this, to make the data public so the community can assess if the simple story they are telling us holds water. They can set up a website, make it available for download and redact any personal information.

What you have to explain is which of the following basic premises you think are not correct.

1. The total number of girls who have been dating 5+ years and are still single is substantially more than the total number of boys that have been dating 5+ years and are still single.

2. Population growth

3. Age differential

I don’t doubt that the people involved in this are well meaning, I just think that before the community makes major changes to its way of life and risks the shalom bais of the next generation that we hold this data to more scrutiny.

The allegation re: shalom bayis is simply unfounded. Is a boy marrying a girl his own age more at risk for shalom bayis issues? Are boys who prefer not to go to EY and thus as a result of their decision to not go to EY and beginning shidduchim when they are ready, which will likely happen to be at a slightly younger age than they currently do, create a risk of shalom bayis? Is there any reason to think that boys at 22.5 are less prepared to be quality husbands and fathers then they are at 23?

NASI Project

“Perhaps there are hundreds or thousands of guys who have dated 5/10 years and are still single but no one seems to know where they are. Not shadchanim, not dating websites, not Rabbonim, not therapists, not the girls.”

I heard it suggested, but obviously have no way of knowing and have no idea how to even try to verify this, that the reason we dont see these guys is because they have “left the fold”, at least as the term “fold” is defined by the yeshivish community. A lot of this happens, this suggestion says, in the late high school early post high schools years (which I am calling 17-21 years old), and in fact there ARE less guys available for the average typical BY type girl. I am not a sociologist or ben sociologist, perhaps these types of guys are included under those who therapists might know of, perhaps this suggestion is outrageously wrong, I dont want to speculate it doesnt help anyone. It is abundantly clear though that, at least on a community wide level, NASI is the only group doing anything to try and resolve this problem and for that they should be commended, not condemned.

Funny, I’ve never heard anyone say there are more boys available.

“NASI is the only group doing anything to try and resolve this problem and for that they should be commended, not condemned.”

If your car breaks down in some backwoods town where no one knows how to fix it, would you commend the fool who started tinkering and yanking wires? Wouldn’t you demand that he not do anything he doesn’t know how to do? I’d say do no harm, and wait for a qualified mechanic to make an appearance. Either way you won’t have a car for an indefinite period of time, but your way there is a chance of breaking it beyond repair.

It is amazing to see that in only 5 years, it has become so normal and accepted for boys and girls to be of similar age. And this is all thanks to the awareness that NASI has brought to the forefront.

I’ve noticed the same (I was just recently at a vort of a 23 year old girl whose chosson is a bit younger. The girls’ father credits NASI for helping make it more acceptable). Yes, anecdotal.

BTW, the title of this thread is “There is NO Shidduch Crisis”. That’s at best anecdotal, so the OP is guilty of his own accusation.

Haifa:

you are referencing a sentence from the QUESTIONER that is NOT a sentence from NASI’s response. NASI simply responded to the overall gist of that question.

Just pointing it out.

GM1, your father’s work and his credential might mean something, if he were willing to show it. But with nothing but empty words to back an empty theory, you’d be better off not mentioning it.

For years now AZ and his ilk have been pretending their basis is fact, and now they admit otherwise. The paper signed by the 70 RY no doubt was based on a thorough investigation, but we know what that means now, too. I have doubted from the start that any reputable statistician had anything to do with this and now there is overwhelming anecdotal evidence that I am right.

Ok – I must admit I have not read all the posts here but I do feel the need to comment.

We just read in the Yated that 10% of girls at given time cannot be married. WHAT???????????? Why is everyone so obsessed with statistics? Statistically, the Jews should not even be around at all. Look how many nations, bigger and stronger, tried to get rid of us. If you only go by statistics, they should have been successful. No? So why weren’t they? Oh yeah – we forgot – there’s a G-d in this world who is beyond statistics! Why are we constantly taking Him out of the picture? If He wants someone to get married, they will. End of conversation.

Gefen, I hope your family doesn’t run its budget that way.

“would you commend the fool who started tinkering and yanking

wires?”

At least 70 signatories who are smarter than me do not believe they are fools tinkering with and yanking wires. Perhaps 70 others who are smarter than me do, but until at least one of them takes out an ad and signs his name to it, or makes such a statement that I hear, I will refrain from calling anyone a fool.

“Where in the Torah does it say an excuse not to get married because the guy is 20 -30 years older?”

Where in the Torah does it say that women are required to get married?

It is common sense that a person should marry someone appropriate for them. For many girls a 20 year age gap is almost certainly inappropriate. It is not being “picky” to want to marry someone approximately your age.

In the same families, brothers will have long lists of girls read to them and will be able to go out whenever they feel like it. Girls will have one or two boys on their list and will often have to go months between dates.

“Andectodal evidence” is evidence (it’s right there in the name). It’s normally not as strong as statistical evidence but in the absence of statistics to the contrary, it can be very strong.

Furthermore very strong anectodal evidence will often trump statistical evidence to the contrary. If someone came out with a statistic that 68% of chickens can survive a week without a head, that stastici would rightly be laughed off in the face of the anectdotal evidence that chickens without heads cannot survive more than couple of minutes.

DY: apples and oranges.

Not at all. We should make hishtadlus for everyone, including the older girls, because even mathematically, there’s hope for any individual (and no one ever said otherwise). The issue being contested is NASI’s contention that we should do hishtadlus on a communal level, and I don’t see why, from a hashkafic perspective, you would be against it.

since in any marriage 1 boy marries 1 girl – then after a marriage takes place then one and only 1 of each is removed from the available shidduch pool. I fail to see what age or anything else has to do with this. could be that boys join the pool later than girls do but that doesnt change the basic equation.

Gefen +1.

I think R’ chayim shmulevitz beleived that there was no necesuty for histadlus AT ALL in shidduchim, explaining that it is the last area in which yad Hashem is still clear.

I think that he also explained the famous gemoro of ???? ???? ??? ?????, ???? ???? ????? that since those two were concerning a shidduch, it was simply impossible to mess up.

I guess R’ Aron Leib Steinman and others who have encouraged finding ways to close the gap have their hashkafos all wrong?

I wonder if Gefen and SSA would call a shadchan for their kids, or just wait for the phone to ring.

Hint: whether or not to do hishtadlus for shidduchim is a machlokes. We pasken a certain way. (I’m not even sure it’s a machlokes when it comes to a communal, rather than individual, approach).

benignuman – I already dealt with these issues in my topic. I hate repeating the same things over and over.

“Where in the Torah does it say that women are required to get married?”

S’A. Ever hear of him?

“It is common sense that a person should marry someone appropriate for them. For many girls a 20 year age gap is almost certainly inappropriate. It is not being “picky” to want to marry someone approximately your age.”

Well they tried getting married to s/o their own age, but noone wants to go out with them. And what the world calls

“inappropriate”, in no way throws out S’A!

I did say we have to do our hishtadlus (see one of my previous posts). But we also have bitachon and know that Hashem is the One in charge.

Okay, so would you agree, that based on the statistics, it makes sense to do hishtadlus to give an oppurtunity for all girls to get married (all the while recognizing that it’s completely up to Hashem whether or not it succeeds)?

Right, no statistics. Probably, there’s no shidduch crisis because some men marry two wives. After all, there are no statistics to prove otherwise, and no controlled studies.

Those girls that are still single in middle age obviously don’t want to get married. For the last 20 -30 years they haven’t met their “Bashert” – so obviously they don’t want to marry their “Bashert” because he isn’t good enough in their minds. This takes them out of the Parsha – so why don’t the younger girls go out with these guys?

Thanks for letting me know I’m out of the Parsha. I didn’t realize that.