The open miracles of the Iranian bombardment and the war in Gaza

mdd1, I have shared an article from the day after the attack from Understanding War explaining it. I have shared a piece from an Israeli expert explaining how 90% accuracy (leting through 1 out of 10 missiles) is much easier than 99% accuracy (letting through 1 out of 100 missiles), and 99.9% accuracy (letting through 1 out of a thousand) is that much harder. I have shared the quote from the Biden official who said that the success could not likely be replicated, indicating it was statistically anomalous , ie a neis. Not sure why the Rand article is the one you keep repeating, but that article explains the dfficulties in achieving the coverage. So yes it’s a neis.
Most systems do have a 20 year development lead time, and many older systems are still in use. The US still flies F-15’s even though those are from the 70’s. So yes an exloration of the system from 2001 is still relevant today. And we see from ukraine how tough it is.

Your attempt to explain Fallujah vs Gaza was not cogent. The fact remains that the US, the most well-equipped army in the world, had a death toll 10 times worse than Israel had. That established the baseline. Israel having 90% fewer losses is definitely a neis.
Here is another write-up from the same professor explaining the difference between letting 1 out of 10 missiles through and 1 out of 100, which every bar seichel should understand is much harder and much less likely to be achieved:
Professor of physics, Maximilian Abitbol, who is also an expert on the defense industry had this to say about the events of Saturday night.
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Scientific Proof that what happened on the 6th of Nissan was nothing short of a Miracle* Words written by a Physics Professor who worked in Israel’s Defense Industry

I wanted to share something that is much more than a feeling. Something that comes from a real calculation: What happened in Israel on last Motzaei Shabbat was not less than the scale of the splitting of the Red Sea.

I am a Professor of physics and I worked for several years in the defense industry in Israel, in projects that are still the cutting edge technologies of the defence of the State of Israel. When I look at what happened on Motzai Shabbat, on a scientific level – it simply cannot happen!! Statistically.

The likelihood that everything, but really Everything works out, does not exist in complex systems like the defense systems that were used to defend Israel from the massive Iranian attack.

These systems have never, but never, not only in the State of Israel, been tried in real time!!

I took a pencil and dived into the calculations to check the statistic probability that such a result would materialize. The large number of events that had to be handled, when each missile or UAV is handled independently (that is, human error or some deviation of one operation, is not offset by other successful operations), compounds the chance of making a mistake.

With all the high technologies, a breach was expected in the defense of the skies of the State of Israel.

Even if we got 90% protection it would have been a miracle!!

What happened is that everyone, but everyone – the pilots, the systems operators and the technology operators acted as one man, at one moment in total unity. If this is not an act of G-d, then I no longer know what a miracle is.

It is Greater than the victory of the Six Day War or the War of Independence. Those wars can also be explained through natural events.
BUT
The rescue that took place for the people of Israel on Motzai Shabbat is simply impossible naturally. I believe that this miracle saved the lives of many people from Israel.

If the defense system had failed to intercept a number of cruise missiles, the result would have dragged us into a very complex war. I wouldn’t bet that next time it will work like this without Divine supervision. The simple proof of what I said is that the managers of the defense industries, who develop and manufacture these systems guarantee no more than 90% success!And we all saw, with our own eyes 99.9% !!!

Thank You Hashem!!

“From the day you came out of the land of Egypt I Have Showed you Wonders”,

M. Abitbol

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agav, I am still bewildered by how anyone can deny the nissim of 1967. the Mir was hit by multiple shells and NONE of them exploded:
More Tehillim. A bris in the morning in the [Chevron] yeshivah. At 12:15, I felt it safe to go to the Mir. They were real happy to see me. It was still dangerous but not very noisy. Rav Chaim [Shmuelevitz] gave me shalom and asked how I was. They told me of the nissim that happened. Two direct hits were on the building — one right through the rosh yeshivah zatzal apartment and one in the corner of the Beis Medrash. The roof was also hit direct and a piece is missing. Shells were falling all around and some said vidui. At 2:00 they said Tehillim for 1 1⁄2 hours. In the afternoon they announced on Kol Yisrael about no injuries — neiss chasdei Mir and the hits.

YWN published this article. Rav Zilberstein shlit”a says of course there were nissim:
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HaGaon HaRav Yitzchak Zilberstein spoke about the great nissim that Klal Yisrael experienced in Eretz Yisrael during the Iranian attack last Motzei Shabbos.

In a Yom Tov interview for ‘קו עיתונות,’ the Rav said. “We’re in Chodesh Nissan, the month of Geulah. We need to know that apart from general chizzuk in Torah and gemilus chassadim, which saves us from chevlei Moshiach, we also need to dedicate time to daven and cry out to Hakadosh Baruch Hu from the depths of our hearts – that He send us Moshiach and build the Beis Hamikdash and we’re zocheh to the Geulah quickly – and this will solve our tzaros all at once. Why should we daven for this and that problem when we have the ability to daven for Hakadosh Baruch to solve all our problems at once.”

Regarding the Iranian attack, HaRav Zilberstein said: “We’re at a difficult time – but we were zocheh to see nissim and niflaos on Motzei Shabbos when over 300 missiles should have landed in Eretz Yisrael but Hakadosh Baruch Hu saved us from their hands. The president of Iran said that he would strike the Jews with an attack that they would remember forever and in the end – the operation ended with HaKadosh Baruch Hu humiliating him.”

“איום ונורא! Sixty tons of explosives were on the way here…Hakadosh Baruch Hu showed him Who runs the world and made a mockery of him, that no missile succeeded in harming Eretz Yisrael. Who knows what could have been…I don’t know how to thank Hakadosh Baruch Hu.”
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YWN Also quotes Rav Shternbuch Shlit”a of the Eida Hachareidis, not exactly a Zionist, that Hashem is protecting Israel and it’s not teva:
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HaRav Shternbuch then changed the topic to that of Iran, saying: “I was asked in the past week if we need to fear Iran after they launched over 300 missiles and drones at Eretz Yisrael. I responded that according to nature, there is definitely what to fear but whoever remembers that Hakadosh Baruch Hu is with us has nothing to fear.”

“Chas v’chalilah to think that there’s nothing to fear because we have an army here – because the truth is that the only thing that protects us is the shemirah of Hakadosh Baruch Hu – and if chas v’chalilah Hakadosh Baruch Hu removes His special hashgacha and shemirah from us, we will all be lost from the world, rachmana litzlan.”

“It’s forbidden to forget the tzaar of the Shechinah when sinners mock HaKadosh Baruch Hu and say כוחי ועוצם ידי עשה לי את החיל הזה.’ Those who say this are the ones who truly hold back the yeshua and geulah.”