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It has now been over a decade since the launch of the NASI Project aiming to reduce the age gap in shidduchim on the basis that it is the cause of many girls being unable to get married due to a lack of boys to marry. The NASI Project included a nationwide and worldwide major campaign including various rabbinic endorsements and mass media efforts.
Perhaps now is a good time to make an assessment as to the net results of what this has accomplished. From my singular view it seems to me that the major impact that occurred, and perhaps the only major impact, is that Litvish girls are getting married younger and younger than previously. They have significantly narrowed the gap in how young they get married compared to Chasidish girls (and boys).
Does anyone agree or disagree with this assessment? Or have any other thoughts to share on this subject. And if, indeed, this is the case, what benefits have accrued from the average younger age of marriage, in regards to how it affects the age gap — and more importantly whether it increases the ability of all girls to have an available shidduch. (The more general benefits of getting married younger are well known, including better adherence to halacha and less problems with the issues young people have when being unmarried.)
If the beliefs of the NASI Project are true, then why were they never mentioned by 33 centuries of our ancestors?
I’m not siding with NASI on anything but hopefully you’ll agree that changes in the dynamics of the Litvish Community over the last half century brought in challenges that weren’t seen in the 32 1/2 centuries before that.
Is NASI still around and if so, in what capacity? It’s been some time since @AZ posted anything here and I haven’t seen any of their ads in a publication recently.
Have there been any reliable studies shwoing that their efforts have worked to narrow the age gap between spouses? If indeed Litvish girls are getting married younger- are they marrying men closer to their age?
I discussed with @AZ 10+ years ago (and I still believe) that the “age gap” is a by product of more serious root causes that need to be resolved but aren’t being discussed. (He didn’t agree with me.)
some facts we can all agree on ( i have no affiliation w nasi & bh have 4 kids married )
the kind of analytical data you are asking for no one has
here is what we all see in the american yeshiva/litvish segment of klal yisroel
TRUE OR FALSE
1. a normal girl from a typical family can go six months without dating a boy thats even close2 .any family that has had a boy & girl in shidduchim will tell u the volume of calls is SO DIFFERENT… (even if their daughter is a better catch)
3. there are many parents of daughters who are so drained from the process…just waiting for a neis
4. in yiddish they say “TZVEI TECHTER, NISHT KAYN GELECHTER” we are at a point that many have RED LIGHTS! (skip or no skip who is a kohen godol?)
5. many well meaning woman have made shidduch meetings , set up, brought in big shadchanim, pics, resumes, texts and calls much time & effort WITHOUT SUCCESS. ( yes hishtadlus, yes showed they care..but no home runs ( and even if a big whole day event made 2 shiduchim thats not a sustainable model despite the best of intentions)
now for the flip side
the wedding halls are booked solid
BMG is averaging 570 chasanim a year and each one has a kalla
the girls getting engaged are NOT only the ; rich or pretty or yichus ,functional families, big degrees ( although that helps on paper)
in fact they didnt do anything dif. than their classmates who are still waitingso WHAT DID NASI DO?
THEY SCREAMED…..HELP es brent ah fire!!
they researched as best they could
they brought their findings to any rav or rosh who would listen
they encouraged the tzibur to look past their own needs and think of the bigger pictureis point 1 & 2 because boy gets resume first as opposed to chassidish where both sides get resume with same click of the mouse
to be continued…A few words about the chassidish scene what’s similar and what is so dif.
1 koshe zivugin… challenging to say the least is by all
2. By chassidim having a boy or girl in shiduchim is almost the same meaning you hear names
3. Chassidish bucherim are visible in shul yomtov and most shabosim tish , not out of sight…no program for them past 20
4. By chassidim a greater Sense of urgency , culturly there is a huge pressure by kehilos as an example a yeshivish older bochur told me I’m not dating in elul call me after Yom tov on the flip side there were more than 50 chassidish shiduchim in aseres yemei teshuva.. chol hamoed.. as bucherim want to go back to ey a chuseen
5 litvish girls are melumedos..and want to be convinced that u are a gavra worthy of them saying yes..a chassidish girl for the most part wants someone frum , similar family..and be nice to me a much lower bar
Of course there are exceptions to everything said..and many problems as well.. golus“and perhaps the only major impact, is that Litvish girls are getting married younger and younger than previously.”
Isn’t that the opposite of the point? Wouldn’t they want them to get married older, or have the boys be younger? The shortage is caused by the girls being younger than the men, so having them be even younger would just make it worse.
Neville > Isn’t that the opposite of the point?
Right. Seems to be what is optimal for one person is not optimal for the community. Unstable system.
Actually, it may be not good for the girl also: she might end up marrying later as this is when her age becomes close to chatanim and disbalance decreases – but she and her parents experience a couple of more years of anxiety and this may, H’V, affect her beauty. She would be better of going getting a MS degree before wasting her time applying for MRS degree.
The recent podcast of Stories of Hope featured a couple with a disability married. It was quoted that in Skver, every year there is a list of all of the boys and girls and shadchanim go down the list and set them up. Within 1-2 years they are all married. The man on the podcast was considered an alter Bochur at 22 (and married a 26 year old girl). I believe that there is a shadchan crisis.
1. Shadchanim are too few compared to the number of eligible singles each year. The girls that get married young have parents working full time on shidduchim for them.
2. Shadchanim work “in the box”. Someone slightly circle automatically gets rejected and is left in her own to find her mate, whether single events or other.
3. Too much power is given to shadchanim. Left, right…
4. We need to create a database of names of boys and girls and have an organization going through the list and setting people up.A FEW COMMENTS ( IN CAPS JUST TO DIFFRENTIATE )The recent podcast of Stories of Hope featured a couple with a disability married.
It was quoted that in Skver, every year there is a list of all of the boys and girls and shadchanim go down the list and set them up. EVERY CHASSIDUS WORKS THAT WAY, IT WORKS IN THEIR CONTEXT- GO FOR A SHABBOS TO SKVER, A REGULAR BY GIRL IS A WHOLE DIFF PARSHAH
Within 1-2 years they are all married. The man on the podcast was considered an alter Bochur at 22 (and married a 26 year old girl). THE SENSE OF URGENCY, HELPS PEOPLE JUMP BUT IT ALSO CREATES A SHARP CLIFF AND U GET OLD VERY FAST
I believe that there is a shadchan crisis.
1. Shadchanim are too few compared to the number of eligible singles each year. The girls that get married young have parents working full time on shidduchim for them. QUESTION HOW MANY HOURS OF ” WORK” PER SHIDDUCH MADE , WOULD YOU CONSIDER WORTHWHILE & EFFICIENT2. Shadchanim work “in the box”. Someone slightly circle automatically gets rejected and is left in her own to find her mate, whether single events or other. MAYBE THEIR SHOULD BE SHADCHANIM SPECIALIZING IN ” OUT OF THE BOX , OWN BEAT,… (U WILL SOON REALIZE MOST PEOPLE ARE NOT REGULAR
3. Too much power is given to shadchanim. Left, right… HUH?
4. We need to create a database of names of boys and girls and have an organization going through the list and setting people up. DO YOU KNOW HOW MANY TIMES THAT WAS TRIED , I DONT HAVE THE ANSWERS?Thanks for briniging it up
it HAS been a whileyears ago I pointed out some flaws in the idea behind the Age gap TM theory.
I predicted that therefore efforts to close the “age gap” would not help .
for reasons not entirely clear to me this really upset people at the time, and they refused to entertain other solutions that might help (that may be why they were so upset)Since then Yosef sokol has released data essentially debunking the premise
At the time I said lets revisit this in 10 years (sadly knowing that were just kicking the can down the road)
has it been that long already ?
would love to hear an update from NAsi or @Az and its other ardent defenders
The Age Gap is not the issue. There are plenty of boys. The issue is that the boys and girls are not on the same spritual levels. There are few learning quality boys available to the many girls who only want learning. The solution would be to help those boys grow and lower the higher ecpectations of the girls, who have it pounded into their heads, that a learning boy is the only thing to look for. I see girls growing older, they still want learning boys, meanwhile. unless they change their mindsets, they will still be single. The pool of boys available to them will shrink, even more so.
some of the posts here make alot of sense and are great ideas
the best Hishtadlus is Tefilla!
we can all take advantage of this coming sunday night the 8th day of Kislev is Yahrtzeit of a great Tzaddik buried in Har Hazeisim
Rav Asher Lemel Levy who was Av Beis Din in Yerushalayim and brother of Rav Nachu Shadiker
the Tzaddik died 174 years ago
Rav Yehoshua Leib Diskin sent so many people to his grave to Daven for a Zivvug and so many people found their shidduch that same year
all of the Gerrer Chassidim also go there on this day since the Chiddushei Harim Zatzal sent people to him
the Segula is to be part of a Seuda in memory of this Tzaddik and promise to attend or sponser part of a Seuda next year after the shidduch will be found
you can light a candle Leiluy Nishmas
הרב אשר לעמיל בן ר’ אברהם זצל
a large gathering will take place this coming sunday night for Tefillos for shidduchim in Yerushalayim followed by a ride to Har Hazeisim late at night
you can call Sod Hachashmal phone line to hear more and many divrei Chizzuk 026647979 [ex. 21 is in english] [ex 73 is a volenteer who writes down the names and accepts Tzdaka 22 shekel per name via credit card
all of the money – every penny – goes dierectly to needy Talmidei Chachamim and widows]those who cannot attend can send names for Tefilla
https://www.matara.pro/nedarimplus/Forms/2156.html?MasofId=&ClientId=&Zeout=&Version=6warmest Mazel Tov wishes to all the many people who will definetly get engaged this year!
amen“The Age Gap is not the issue. There are plenty of boys.”
You don’t understand simple math. In an exponentially growing population, there are more people born in later years than earlier. I.e. there are more people born in 1995 than there were in 1990. So, if you try to pair up girls born in 1995 with boys born in 1990, there will be a surplus of girls. The same will hold true for any gap, even if it’s only 1 year. It just just affect how much of the surplus there is.
This would be true even if the population grew linearly, but because it’s grows exponentially, the problem gets worse and worse every year and the surplus of girls will just keep growing.
The real crisis is that the frum community apparently has such terrible math education that full grown adults don’t understand that the shidduch crisis is an easily provable reality. In public schools, kids would easily understand this at roughly a 7th grade level.
Neville- It really depends which public school you’re talking about.
I’ve taught in public schools, there is a HUGE difference between different neighborhoods and schools.
Actually, the same goes for Frum schools. Some are on much a higher level than others.
In my case, I found the level of education higher in the frum schools than in the public schools.
Again, this varies as my public school students were largely from Non English speaking, immigrant homes, while that was not the case for my other students.On the Shidduch Crisis, the age gap seems to make sense to me, but I didn’t spend that much time thinking about it.
On the other hand, Mazal77 definitely has a point. Most girls only want a certain type of boy. We also see that working boys have a very hard time with Shidduchim.
The mostly likely reason for the shidduch crisis (other than that Hashem runs the world, which is the ultimate answer) is that it’s a combination of factors. Focusing on one factor (the age gap) may help but doesn’t solve the issue completely.Neville, yes, I did not believe that this is the reason for the shidduch crisis in a discussion here a couple fo years back, then I did some math and had to eat my (metaphorical) hat. I still have the leftovers!
I also think there are additional reasons that make the crisis worse:
1) boys are more comfortable to look for shidduch in less safe places. That is, at an equal level of observance, the boy will be more inclined to look for a shidduch at a university, club, etc.
2) requirements for girls are not high in terms of their effort – keep tznius, go to the right seminary, master the art of cosmetics, and develop a desire to marry a talmid chochom or/and baal middos. Boys are required to exert serious effort in learning or/and earning a living.
In other words, number of girls who develop a desire to “marry a talmid chochom” is way more than number of boys that actually succeed in becoming one! The double whammy here is not only girls have difficulty achieving their goal, their real nissayon starts after that – as in some cases where they are raising the kids; earning a living; and finding out deficiencies in the husband’s learning or middos.
(1) There is (roughly) the same number of frum males and frum females in Klal Yisrael.
(2) The amount of frum married men is exactly the same as the amount of frum married women.
This leads to the astonishing conclusion that:
(3) The amount of frum unmarried men is (roughly) the same as the amount of frum unmarried women.
In the early 2000s (or maybe the 1990s) I asked dozens of shadchanim:
What are the biggest problems that prevent shidduchim?
They gave me two answers more often than all others:
short boys and overweight girls.Short boys cannot increase their height,
but overweight girls should be able to lose weight.If we want to help girls get married,
then we must do something about overweight girls.1a2b3c:
Your point is astonishingly easy to refute. See what I wrote above. The total numbers are irrelevant; we only care about the ones of marrying age.The total number of frum males is NOT “roughly” the same as the number of frum females that are born 5 years later. Again, this is extremely simple math. It is either willful ignorance, horrifying lack of education, or a combination of both that allows people not to see this.
It helps nothing to look at all of klal yisroel as one group. If they’re going to be separated by ages in shidduchim, then you need to look at them as separate age groups. The leap of logic you’re taking is like saying “the number of men and women in the world is roughly equal, therefore every Chinese woman should be able to find herself an Icelandic husband with no surplus or polygamy.” Obviously, that would be a ridiculous statement. Lumping together 25 year olds and 18 year olds as one group is no less ridiculous once you think about it for more than a second.
“In other words, number of girls who develop a desire to “marry a talmid chochom” is way more than number of boys that actually succeed in becoming one!”
Eh, yes and no. Once the girls are 25+ and they’re already victims of the mathematical shidduch crisis, then they go dumpster diving for husbands. I know several cases of FFB girls who have married sort of out-there BT’s or gerim, but I have almost never seen it go the other way around, and it’s always cases where the girl is past her mid 20s. I’m by the way not trashing on marrying BTs or gerim, but the reality is that FFB men don’t feel that they ever “need” to go that route whereas the women often do.
“Neville, yes, I did not believe that this is the reason for the shidduch crisis in a discussion here a couple fo years back, then I did some math and had to eat my (metaphorical) hat. I still have the leftovers!”
Very glad to hear some people are figuring it out. Many people–as you will probably see on this thread–are going to simply refuse to do the math because they know they won’t like the conclusion.
NevilChaimBerlinLoMes: I wasn’t arguing that the age gap does not reduce the number of shidduchim made. I was arguing that the Shidduch crisis does not affect females more than males, since for every female who does not get married there must also be a man who does not get married.
“I was arguing that the Shidduch crisis does not affect females more than males, since for every female who does not get married there must also be a man who does not get married.”
You’re still incorrect. The minhag in the Litvish community is for girls to be 5-7 years younger than their husbands, which means there will be a surplus of whichever gender is younger, in this case the women. If the minhag was for 19 year old boys to marry 25 year old women, then the shidduch crisis would exist in the other direction.
“In the early 2000s (or maybe the 1990s) I asked dozens of shadchanim:”
And they gave you answers that prove what we all already know: that they’re part of the problem.
123, to clarify, the age gap is due to a large number of children on some communities. Thus, number of people who are 5 years younger is more than before. This is a historical abnormality, maybe a sign of moschiach coming. In older times, there were as many children, but majority didn’t survive. Most modern societies have way less children of course.
yes
I would point out that if the population was shrinking (as it is among many secular groups) then the surplus would reverse and you would have too few women to marry the number of men looking for shidduchim.
follick, right, but it is “compensated” by women marrying late and, thus, having less difference in age.
Population growth is not the only reason for age differences over time – wars and hard work kill men; childbirth kills women; recently (?) asian society get rid of girls before or after birth, esp when Chinese gov allowed one kid only
general observation is when there are more men, society is more moral (women demand marriage), when there are more women, other way around.
“general observation is when there are more men, society is more moral (women demand marriage), when there are more women, other way around.”
And the yeshivish world has managed to create a “more women” situation even though technically there aren’t truly more women than men. It’s an astonishingly terrible situation on so many levels.
Follick: Yes, you are absolutely correct. The only way a consistent age-gap could work would be if the population were holding steady, or if polygamy were allowed. Interestingly, I would bet that polygamous societies also marry at an age gap in order to contrive the shidduch crisis situation, giving males the opportunity to have multiple wives without depriving other men of marriage.
NC
“You’re still incorrect. The minhag in the Litvish community is for girls to be 5-7 years younger than their husbands,”
Is this borne out by data?
The admittedly limited data ive seen (and anecdotally asking around) this does not seem to be the caseMore to the point though.
I’m not sure hashing out the same argument again and again is productiveBottom line, can anyone answer UJM’s question?
This has been discussed again and again and again for well over a decade
here we are all these years later
Did “closing the gap” help ? what has been accomplished?Has it helped?
If not is it time to try something else, or are we still going to insist on the status quo ? If so how long until we next reassess?
“The admittedly limited data ive seen (and anecdotally asking around) this does not seem to be the case”
Not sure where you’re asking around. Lakewood-type guys don’t get married at 18/19, they keep learning and get married in their mid twenties. I’ve never heard anyone deny this part of the observation.“Did “closing the gap” help ? what has been accomplished?”
Closing the gap would help. It’s not something that needs to be tested. That’s like saying in order to accept that 5 – 2 = 3 you must have 5 objects and take away 2 otherwise there’s no way you could possibly know. If it hasn’t “helped” it’s because they failed to close it. I’ve seen no evidence that the Yeshivish tzibbur has changed anything in their marriage-age habits.A partial gap-closing will not help; it will just stall the problem a little more. Even a 1 year age gap will cause surplus and eventually a “crisis.” In an exponentially growing population, eventually even the difference between one year and the next will be massive.
Professor Sautmann, formerly a professor of economics at Brown University stated [regarding the shidduch crisis in India]: “When women marry younger than men, higher population growth leads to a surplus of women in the marriage market. To resolve this surplus, the age gap at marriage MUST decline.”
In case you don’t trust humans anymore, I presented the question to Google, and the AI overview gave the following answer:
Will population growth, combined with an age gap at marriage, force some women to remain single?
Yes, a combination of population growth and a significant age gap at marriage could potentially force some women to remain single, as the pool of available partners within their preferred age range might shrink, creating a “marriage squeeze” where there are more women seeking partners than men in their desired age bracket, potentially leaving some women without a suitable match.
NC
“Closing the gap would help. It’s not something that needs to be tested. ”
while it might help
I dont think that is the main part of the problem I also dont think there s a way to actually close it.
That said I understand their is a dogma associated with this and questioning it and asking for real data, not to mention provinding data that undermines it is met with fierce opposition.My question is at what point do we say ok, it isnt clossable, lets look for another solution. 10 years ? 20 years ? 30 ?
“My question is at what point do we say ok, it isnt clossable, lets look for another solution. 10 years ? 20 years ? 30 ?”
There literally is no other solution. If you think there is, then you don’t understand the problem.Let me break this down to be a little simpler since you clearly don’t fully believe in this:
If I had a room of 10 men and 15 women and had to match them up for marriage with no polygamy, you accept that there would be 5 women leftover, right?
If a population is growing exponentially, you accept that the population born 5 years later at any given time will exceed that born 5 years earlier, right?
Do you accept that the frum population is growing exponentially?
If you answered yes to all of these, then mazel tov you believe in the shidduch crisis whether you admit it or not. If you answered no to any of these, then you are objectively wrong.
Not closing the age gap means girls dying alone forever, and the number of girls dying alone will grow exponentially. You can’t “beat” math. If one quantity is greater than another, you will end up with a surplus.
” If you think there is, then you don’t understand the problem.”
So never?
We dont have to rehash the tired old stuff IVe heard it all .
“If I had a room of 10 men and 15 women and had to match them up for marriage with no polygamy, you accept that there would be 5 women leftover, right?”
Yes.
“If a population is growing exponentially, you accept that the population born 5 years later at any given time will exceed that born 5 years earlier, right?”
Yes“Do you accept that the frum population is growing exponentially?”
Yes
“If you answered yes to all of these, then mazel tov you believe in the shidduch crisis whether you admit it or not. If you answered no to any of these, then you are objectively wrong.”
No. there are other missing pieces . how many of the men are exiting for other reasons (eg off the derech)
Is the age gap really that wide? (real data says no)
Shiduchim arent “closed rooms” more people are always entering some women marry men older than them. Your analogy is cute and simple but not reflective of realityand not to mention the most obvious as another poster pointed out “a normal girl from a typical family can go six months without dating a boy thats even close” this is not due to the Age gap for the simple reason that people date more than one person.
so in your of room of 10 men and 15 women. If each man sat with say 5 women before choosing one. IT would be very odd if after the dust settles and the 10 men went on their 50 dates 5 women never got dates. This cannot be explained by the age gap..
Again I get that you dont find this convincing and are married to the simple Age gap . fine I am not trying to convince you
You believe there is no other option. Ok
anyone else ?
I too am interested in response to UJM’s OP
“how many of the men are exiting for other reasons (eg off the derech)”
Not many, and if there were it would just make the problem worse.“Is the age gap really that wide? (real data says no)”
You’re simply wrong. Everybody knows that Litvishers marry at an age gap as I explained earlier. I’m not sure if you’re turning the blind eye to reality or just shamelessly lying at this point. It’s hard for me to believe that anyone even marginally acquainted with the yeshivish world could possibly suggest that the minhag is not for the husband to be older. Your “data” (if it actually exists) is probably pulling from too many groups. This crisis is very specific to one community. Chassidim and MO people don’t have this problem.“IT would be very odd if after the dust settles and the 10 men went on their 50 dates 5 women never got dates.”
Huh? This has nothing to do with anything. Nobody cares about whether or not people can go on dates. If there is a surplus of let’s say 5 thousand women this past year, then it’s perfectly possible that every women gets to date, but 5 thousand still won’t get married as there won’t enough guys.Your denial seems to be based on denying that Litvishers marry at an age gap, but you seem like you would accept that if there were an age gap there therefore would be a surplus. I’m not sure what I can say to convince you of the easily observable minhag. If you, as I suspect, live in a smallish, OOT community where you really don’t interact with many real yeshivish people, then you can either take our word for it or keep being willfully ignorant.
Thanks Neville, very well presented. If this is true, then we have a lot to do teshuvah for. Is there anyone who would like to volunteer to print this mathematical calculation and post in all the shuls and shtiebles, so people can see it in front of their eyes. Shockingly I never heard this, nor did others I showed it to. This needs to become viral ASAP
NC
“You’re simply wrong. Everybody knows that Litvishers marry at an age gap ”
Im not interested in what “everybody knows” Im interested in facts.
I fully get that this doesnt interest you. Beseder. I am NOT trying to convince you. I dont find arguments over belief prodcutive. This is your belief you will not change your mind. Ok“Huh? This has nothing to do with anything. Nobody cares about whether or not people can go on dates”
This is demonstrably false. I see you havent been following the discussion over years. this is ALWAYS the complaint . It was mentioned in this thread as i posted a verbatim quote . So again while YOUd odnt care this it undermines your beleief system, others do .
” If there is a surplus of let’s say 5 thousand women this past year, then it’s perfectly possible that every women gets to date, ”
Yes! Exactly! , yet that isnt what is happening . this CANNOT be explaiend by the age gap (as you all but acknowlegde) – though again Ive had thsi discussion years ago ok dates dont matter marriage does I get it“Your “data” (if it actually exists) ”
It exists source provided above , data by Yosef Sokol (was YWN article on it trying to debunk it by R Yair Hoffman)
I know I know the data is no good. spare me
I dont think it will convinve you I really get it“I’m not sure what I can say to convince you of the easily observable minhag. ”
Probably nothing
You cna provide data., thats all.But again. I dont need to be convinved Ive heard it all this is not a new topic its ben discussed again and again (though Im a little surprised yu never heard of the complaitn that girls arent gettign dates)
The tumult is now over 10 years oldIT is fair to ask if there are any updates. has the age gap narroewed ? are there less singles? is the problem better ? worse ? same ? etc etc
IF you dont have any ok say no updates we need to keep working at narrowing the gap .Forever nothing else to do. Ok that is your response I haear it loud and clear
IF someone else has updates let them provide them
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