- This topic has 379 replies, 35 voices, and was last updated 15 years, 5 months ago by .
-
Posts
-
PM:
What we agree on:
1. Boys begin dating a couple at an older age than girls (i think you agree with this point)
2. Being that the boys prefer to date the younger (newer girls) that creates a shidduch crisis for the girls.
3. To alleviate the crisis we need more close in age shidduchim, i.e. we need boys to be willing to date girls their own age, and not only date the new girls.
Our disagreement focuses on why boys (22) dating girls (19) creates a problem; with the resulting difference as to whether encouraging boys to date slightly earlier and girls slightly later will further alleviate the situation (my argument). Or whether that won’t make a difference, and the one thing that could be done is to further enccourage more close in age shidduchim.
Now that we are clear (I think) on this point.
That being said. Your theory that does away with population growth just doesn’t add up.
You suggest that after year 3 we are left with 60 boys and 60 girls from the year 1-3. Lets accept that those 60 girls never get married.
Going forward. years 4-6 we have 300 new girls and 300 new boys plus 60 old boys. In other words we have 360 boys competing for only 300 new girls. If as you suggest that many (50) of the old boys will marry from the 300 new girls. Than there is no way to explaining how after year 6 we would have 60 girls from years 4-6 and 60 boys from years 4-6. Either you would have 60 girls and 110 boys because 50 of the old boys (years 1-3) snatched up from the new girls. Or you would have 60 boys and 10 girls as the 240 new boys plus 50 old boys married the new girls.
In addition:
according to your theory that incoming boys and girls are equal in numbers and the old boys plus the new boys compete for the new girls; than we should have the following phenomena (as I wrote above)
1. New boys should have an increasingly difficult time in shidduchim since they are competing with the leftover older boys (years 1-3 for the new girls).
2. We should have an increasing percentage of boys who do not get married that first year. (year one 80% year two 70% year 3 65% etc. etc.) being that the older boys take many of the newer girls.
3. The new girls should be sitting pretty with the numbers stacked in their favor as all the new boys and the old boys compete for them, and not enough girls to go around.
NONE of these three points exist.
Your theory doesn’t hold up over a peorid of a couple of years. It only explains the intial group. It wouldn’t explain why we have a ongoing (and until NASI) worsening problem.
Perhaps squek or Dr. Pepper could produce a spreadsheet that would explain this theory.
PM: Regarding the MO populatin. The problem is clearly NOT as acute as in the more yeshivish circles. When I say they have the same problem I do not mean to imply it is as signifcantly out of balance as in the Yeshivish community. The reaseon for this is.
1. The family sizes are not as large hence the population growth not as fast.
2. Their dating is not as structured as in the Yeshivis circles (ALL girls go to sem and then look to get married (19), ALL boys after 3 year bais medrash n US go to EY for 2 years and then back to US Lakewood (22-23 etc.) Thus their average age gap is not as great as in the yeshivis circles and therefore the inequity of numbers is not as great.
However they DO have the same problem.
Chaverim: Please show me once on any thread where I have qouted a Gadol as stating that the various practical ideas discussed in this thread should be implemented.
Perhaps you are referring to my comment about how productive boys are (or are not) in EY. I have never claimed that Roshei Yeshiva are advocating that they cut down their time there. I have put that suggestion out based on where many many boys readily admit they learn better.
What is clear is that the gedolim recognize the seriousness of the situation as well as the cause of the problem.
The ideas presented in this thread are to create discussion as to various possible ways of closing the age gap. Please don’t accuse me of misquoting Great people.
If you feel that the lack of rosheim yeshiva coming out and publicly advocating any of these suggestions is a inferred lack of agreement- that is your opinion. I am just trying to encourage the community to search for effective implementable ways to close the age gap.
If you do not like these suggestions- that’s fine. Please take the time to understand the seriousness of the situation. Let’s together search for what can be done.
To do nothing is NOT an option!
mox: the small schools are newly DISCOVERED not newly opened. They have NO bearing on the growth rate.
AZ: I’m confused. Now you are acknowledging that MO have a smaller age gap but still have more girls then boys. Why??? How does this data fit your theory???
“I am just trying to encourage the community to search for effective implementable ways to close the age gap.”
I see that is what you are trying to do with singe-minded devotion, but why don’t you instead step back and search for ways to truly solve the shidduch crisis other than the “age gap”.
I sent a post explaining on what points PM and I agree and where we disagree. In addition I pointed out where his theory falls short. Should I resend, or was it deleted for some reason??
AZ – I think the most important thing for people reading this thread to see is your last comment – To do nothing is NOT an option!
We are faced with a scary situation. Perhaps there are other factors which contribute to this problem. But, at the end of the day – our boys start dating at 23 & our girls at 18. That’s created what is called an age gap. This is going to continue untill someone changes the current system.
People may disagree with AZ’s suggestions to solve the problem. But, the issue is real. And it aint going away anytime soon unless we do something about it!
mox: we have been hearing for months that the Avi Chai study proves a 3.5% growth rate. Now we see that it only discovered ~2% if you count all Orthodox schools or if you count Yeshiva and half of centrist. Only with original and creative methods can you squeeze out 3.2%, and I have explained that newly DISCOVERED small schools could account for that blip. Additionally, SJ demonstrated on the previous page that if you try different permutations of comparing grades you can easily find negligible growth.
So I stand by my statement that the hard numbers undermine the “age gap” theory.
One can marry a girl close in age and still learn kidiba’i in Eretz Yisroel. The letter doesn’t specify an age gap- it just says marrying someone above the early ages of marriage. A 24-year old marrying a 21-year old would still be ruach chachamim noche heymenu.
How sad. Girls and their parents are crying bitter Tisha- B’Av like tears throughout the Yeshivishe world, and when people come up with an honorable way to help to lessen the Tza’ar, the naysayers, rather than come up with original helpful ideas, merely try to destroy the ideas of others with statistical theories.
Your right AZOI.IS. It is sad when the facts disprove what our emotions want us to do.
Facts always get in the way
pt, criticizing and doing nothing is always easiest. Those that REALLY care would at least TRY to come up with better, more workable, options and not just kick and scream that others’ ideas are worthless.
Azoi.is: You are being disambiguous. We want to truly solve the shidduch crisis, not just the age gap.
Mox, the problem with looking at the average is that you miss part of the story. Even though AZ will not admit to it, trying to marry off people of similiar ages either means women will get married later or men earlier. There is no way around that. That is asking a big sacrifice for men or women, if its not certain it will help. I showed in quite a few years that making the age gap smaller does NOT alleviate anything. All you are doing is delaying women from getting married by two years, which is unfair.
As to the growth rate – there is a much greater mortality rate for boys than girls. According to what I read on the CDC and other sites,by late teens/early 20s, the population evens out to be approximately a 1:1 ratio.
AZOI.IS you support change for the sake of change whether it is logical or not (as such you are probably a devout Obama supporter). I support lasting solutions Shidduchim not just a flavor of the month.
Lasting solutions require research and studies, it is unfair to the boys and girls in shidduchim to use them as guinea pigs as test subjects
PM: You have not responded to my challenges to where your theory falls short. I am very happy to see that we agree on many points. But please explain the your response to my arguments
PM: If the Mo population has a slightly slower growth and slight smaller age gap that translates into 6-7% girls having no shot of ever getting married vs. the yeshvish crowd where it stands at around 10%. I would argue that that’s a very significant pro9blem although not as devastating as by the the yeshivish. Do you feel that 7% of girls never getting married in the MO population is acceptable???
AZ, you have still not proven that reducing the age gap will alleviate anything. As I have shown (from the AviChai study), it may or may not.
And yes, a percentage of people will never marry.
PM I am not sure what you mean by small schools. Do you mean new scools with few grades or do you mean schools with all grades but few students.
Regardless you did not respond to any of my issues. If your theories are correct (ie centrist conversion and new school discovery) than we would see those numbers reflected in the grade by grade breakdown. In addition you did not explain why you consider the sudy to study growth more credible than year to year especially when there seem to have been at least some scool reclassification.
Re the blip averages taken over 17 years are not a blip. Yes in some years the growth rate is lower and in some it is higher. The average and therefore the expected value over time is about 3.5% (or 3.2).
SJS The death rates (per 100,000) for whites are as follows boys ages 0-1 640 deaths 1-4 31 5-9 13 10-14 13 15-19 87 which sums up to 792 per 100,000 among females the numbers are 515,23,12,13,37 for the same age groups.
As you can see the total death rate for under 20 is less than 1% so a 105:100 disparity could not possibly be closed by age 20.
With reagrd to your other point I don’t think I understand what you are saying. Noone is saying that all boys should marry girls two years younger than themselves what we are saying is that the communities average age gap has to be reduced.
Jothar:
If you read the version that was signed by the American Roshei Yeshiva it clearly makes reference to closer in age, not just past early marriageable age. Clearly the push is to encourage more close in age shidduchim.
Hafoch Ba V’ Hafoch Ba D’Kula Ba.
Why dont we ask our Gedolim if it will or wont help, and what their recommendations are.
There has to be something to do.
AZ: Of course 7% among MO is a problem, but the fact that it exists disproves your theory. With a smaller growth rate and the same 5% more males born they have also closed the age gap to the 1.5% as you recommend. Based on your theory we should be seeing a surplus of MO boys, but instead they also have more single girls then boys. Tiyuvta!!!
If you don’t like my scenario, feel free to ignore it, although it it much closer to reality. However you have not addressed the plethora of evidence
i have brought to demolish your pet theory. It would be doing a service to Klal Yisroel if you would get over your addiction to the “age gap” and allow us to identify and solve the true causes of the problem.
mox: fewer grades, the same schools YOU proposed were being disproportionally missed.
I thoroughly explained ALL your issues, the new school discovery explains the grade by grade numbers. You are ignoring my issues that even the grade by grade shows insignificant growth and that you are basing your theory on a study you disagree with.
PM: Perhaps I haven’t read all your posts. Please point me to the plethora of evidence you claim. Your theory certainly doesn’t hold up or explain the facts on the ground.
I fail to see how you have demolished the age gap theory. If you sole basis is the MO argument. I don’t seem to understand and I believe your math is inaccurate. (taking the 7% percent and subtracting 5% is just not the proper way to figure out the numbers. The 7% (approximate) is the number after calculating population growth x age gap – 4/5%. Just like the 10/11% in the yesivish community is calculated population growth x age gap – 4/5%)
In addition I don’t know if you realize that practically speaking both you and I are looking to encourage more close in age shidduchim. see my ealrier post
BYTW I just got this letter off a different website
In the year ad a half since this letter was first published I have seen a tremendous change in the shidduch scene. Boys (and their parents) are much more willing to do shidduchim with girls their own age or even slightly older. Such readiness to date close in age has the potential to greatly alleviate was has become known as the shidduch crisis.
Mention must also be made of the wonderful NASI Project that is at the forefront of this movement and is committed to close the age gap and thus ease the crisis
Shloime Lewenstein (he is a very well known shadchan in the yeshivish world)
PM: “If you don’t like my scenario, feel free to ignore it”
There is nothing about your scenario that I don’t like. It just isn’t accurate. I have not hat in this ring. If your scenario was where it was at, you can b sure I would have no interest in trying to encourage boys to date slightly earlier and girls to date slightly later.
Truth of the matter is, that to date the only success has been to encourag boys to date girls their own age, (see letter from lewenstein) and that I think is something you and I are in accord on.
AZ – thanks for the letter. Rabbi Lewenstein is very familiar with the current scene, and if he feels that people are much more willing to do shidduchim with girls their own age or even slightly older. And that such readiness to date close in age has the potential to greatly alleviate was has become known as the shidduch crisis – who are we to argue!!
AZ: If you don’t even bother reading what I write there is no point in continuing this discussion.
MO have a growth rate of 1.3% per year. Their age gap is 1-2 years, for arguments sake say 2%. That gives a total of 2.6% “gap” which does not even overcome the 5% birth gap and should result in 2.4% BOYS unmarried. The facts on the ground contradict this!!!
Read what I have written the past week or so and you will see that after seeing the Avi Chai survey inside it is clear that the “age gap” can not account for more then 1% unmarried, which is insignificant compared to other factors such as the “commitment” issue AZOI.IS mentioned in the other thread.
Wait a minute! isn’t NASI giving shadchanim a $2000 bonus to find a shidduch for older girls. Of course Shlomie Lewinstein is thrilled with the idea and wants to encourage it. It’s extra money in his pocket.
PM, I think the 2,000 incentive ended. I heard that they are short on funding. Now what’s your excuse/reasoning?
Mox, according to the US census in 2000, from the age of 20-44, the ratio changes to 98 men per 100 women. I would post a link but I dont think its allowed.
As to reducing the age gap – how do you plan to do that? The only way is that either:
a) men get married earlier (since women will still want to get married at 19)
b) women get married later (since the men don’t start dating until later)
Is it fair to rush the men into marriage? NO
Is it fair to postpone women getting married? NO
Neither option is fair, especially when you look at the numbers. Reducing the years between the men and women dating may or may not help. Look at the differences between ages in years – many years have virtually the same number of students so moving the age gap 1-2 years in either direction may not help. Its a lot to ask of the men and women to change their desires for marriage based on something that isn’t a sure thing.
We thank everyone for making their views and opinions known here on this matter.
After watching the comments made in this thread, it seems that things are now just going around in circles.
We are therefore closing this thread.
- The topic ‘The AZ thread – discuss the shidduch “age gap”’ is closed to new replies.