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AZ:
I’m not so sure of that. the “best boys” would go for the money, and the girls that are left would not “settle” for “insulting offers” of boys that wish to support their family and pay tuition, let alone those who want to work. Once they are “older”, they fall out of the picture.
Those boys, on the other hand, are free to find a girl outside the shidduch process if needed, or can marry a younger (or older) girl.
Besides, the really good boys would marry the girl with two million (and want four) 🙂
AZ,
re: As it stands now even if we pushed a magic button and all girls had a million dollars in the bank we would still have the exact same crisis because there are just not enough pants for the skirts.
If all girls had a million dollars, guys and Shadchanim wouldn’t have to look among the new young crop to find new Shvers able to support easily.
SJSinNYC
Re the ratio of boys to girls the ratio ranges between 103 and 107 makes per female. Among non hispanic whites in the us the rate is about 105 to 100. Yes it is “Possible” that for some reason orthodox jews have a ratio skewed towards women but in the absence of any evidence I don’t think this is something we have to be concerened about.
Incidentaly there was a study done in Israel examaning the ratios among “Charedim” – the numbers where more or less the same as white americans.
The ratio of boys to girls is declining but it is in the order of 1/10th of a percent over decades – not a factor that need concern us.
Re going off the derech it is important to make the distinction bet GOTD as it appllies to schools and GOTD as it applies to marriage. In my experience – correct me if I am wrong – most boys who GOTD end up marrying whithin the orthodox commmunity. To the best of my knowledge there really isn’t any hard evidence re the ratio of boys to girls going off the derech.
One note about the math – when calculating the growth rate taking into account boys GOTD the 6% is subtrated after deriving up the the ratio of boys to girls.
AZ, The girls family providing a dowry towards her marriage to her husband has a long and rich history in yiddishkeit. It is not a modern invention.
(In fact the Tosaphists wrote “every day the Exile lies more heavily upon us, and if a man is able to provide a dowry for his daughter at this moment [he should do so], lest he not be able to later and find that she remains unmarried forever.”)
I apologize if my lashon offended anyone. It was a bit harsh. Perhaps I should have delivered my message softer.
A person who receives support, advantage, or the like, from another or others without giving any useful or proper return, as one who lives on the hospitality of others, is according to the lexicographers of Random House a parasite.
Who is funding kollel’im? Certainly not the sycophants that fawn over the new million-dollar man that is footing the bill.
What is anti-semitic? I pointed out that kollel has become for many a welfare system. Everybody is learning in kollel now. At one point in time it was reserved for the best and the brightest. Is this observation anti-semitic?
The true chillul hashem is when little Moishey is forced to use the Torah as a kardom, because his parents were impressively uneducated and failed to give him a proper chinuch. He is still learning in kollel to this day. If one is learning in kollel lo lishma, it is time to move on with life. The ultimate chillul hashem is using the mesorah as a kardom. The ultimate kiddush hashem is the professional that can support a kollel and give daf yomi simultaneously.
Kollel is a luxury. Kollel two years after marriage, lo kasha, this is a luxury. Perhaps it takes money to determine what is and is not a luxury.
I apologize in advance if my words offended anyone.
Moral of the story. Marry of adults, not children.
BTJ: It would be advisable for you to refrain from the loshon hora (which is synonymous with sheker), whether you deliver it harshly or softly.
BenTorahJew – take your message elsewhere. Don’t try to cover your hate of the Olam Hayeshiva. The crown jewel of our society is the thousands of Bnei Torah who are moser nefesh to sit & learn Torah. The language you used is unacceptable, even according to the lexicographers of Random House. Untill you learn how to speak properly, please don’t don’t call yourself a Ben Torah.
To Chaverim: this is a rich tradition that fell by the wayside in frum US circles over the last few generations.
And back in the heim, if families couldn’t do it guess what, the girls didn’t get married.
I highly recommend googling, reading, and studying a story called “Johnny Lingo’s Eight Cow Wife.”
Just read the Avi Chai survey. It shows 12% growth over 5 years in Orthodox dayschools and only 8% in those 5 years outside of Lakewood. This translates to only about 2% a year not 3-4%.
To Chaverim: this is a rich tradition that fell by the wayside in frum US circles over the last few generations.
tzippi, I beg to differ! Who pays for the weddings (a considerable sum) these days?
And back in the heim, if families couldn’t do it guess what, the girls didn’t get married.
Forget the alte heim. That is exactly what the Tosaphists said (as I quoted above.)
I highly recommend googling, reading, and studying a story called “Johnny Lingo’s Eight Cow Wife.”
Amongst acheinu bnei yisroel, such a story would be titled “Chana Devora’s Eight Cow Husband”.
To Chaveirim: there’s a difference between making a chasunah and buying linens, dishes, etc. and doing all that PLUS five years of support at 12K minimum/year.
To AZ: baruch she’keivanta!
P.S. to Chaveirim: the one and only chasuna we paid for was an east coast package deal that cost under 10K (excluding FLOP, which the other side took care of).
tzippi, I’m sure you are not oblivious that the girl’s side incurs the greater costs in marriage. This is in lieu of a monetary dowry (which if you count years of financial support after the marriage is in essence being given in any event), that has been a staple of shidduchim for time immemorial.
Read the whole thing. 8% if you don’t count LKWD. go to avichai.org, click on “publications” and it’s towards the bottom of the page.
If we view things using cold logic, we should also say that the kollel system is unable to support itself, the numbers don’t work out, and it should be shut down. Yet the response to this is have bitachon, and it will work shelo kederech hateva. Why is shidduchim any different?
Jothar, I’m not sure if your comment was meant to be sarcastic, and whether you’re pro Nasi or against it. If against, are you recommending that those who are ill, should not seek medical advice?
Those who are fundraisers for Kollelim, put in as much Hishtadluas as possible to bring in as much money as possible, and similarly, those who are living
in the age of the Shidduch crisis ought to try to ease it in whatever ways are possible.
Mox:
If there is a study about charedim, I would hazard a guess it follows with the regular orthodox Jews as well. Do you know where that information is?
Also, my math was done on the basis that by age 20, there is an even ratio of men and women (since the male birth rate is higher but not the survival rate).
Not sure what you mean by boys who GOTD marrying within the orthodox community. That has not been my experience at all. Why would they marry orthodox women if they are not? Why would the women marry them? As far as the ratio – I’m going by my experience which has shown a significant difference in boys vs girls going OTD. Maybe someone has information on that? I think the social restrictions on boys are harsher is many ways (minyan, learning etc) than girls so you are more likely to get boys OTD than girls. Its a lot easier to be a good girl (or even a mediocre girl) than it is to be a good boy. No one knows if a girl is davening or not – everyone knows if a boy doesn’t go to minyan. So, I assumed the worst case scenario.
About applying it to dayschools vs adults – if you lose 6% of your population, that is a portion of the population that won’t have more orthodox children. So, it may not show up until 20 years later, but that is a reduction.
One note about the math – when calculating the growth rate taking into account boys GOTD the 6% is subtrated after deriving up the the ratio of boys to girls.
I’m not 100% what you are saying here – are you saying that if there is a 4% overall growth including 6% OTD? That would mean if we have 100 men and 100 women, losing 5% of men and 1% of women, you then have 95 men and 99 women. In order to get a total growth of 4%, you need to end up with 208 people. That equates to a growth of 7.22%. The men will increase in size to 101.8 and the women to 106.2. This would still be an exponential growth.
I would say the OTD numbers are somewhat critical to this (as to the ratio).
If this is the actual case, then the only solution is really polygamy since narrowing the age gap won’t really do anything. Its like putting a bandaid on a broken bone. Maybe Ames is willing to share?
Or, we can have women marry progressively younger and younger men, and encourage adoptions of girls.
Anon, I hear what you are saying about Asians, but the ratio still needs a portion of the population to average more girls to get the ratio closer towards 1. Somewhere, some group of people are having more girls than boys.
Squeak, I didnt realize AZ didnt read the study! No wonder he didnt want to answer my math questions.
SJSinNYC: Mox will discuss the specifics of the math. We work together closely and I defer all specific mathnumbers issues to him. (gotta know ones strengths and weaknesses)
Azoi is, my rational intellect tells me NASI is correct. My intellect also tells me that kollels are unfeasible, and that large families aren’t feasible. Rational thought tells me that, based on current income levels, my kids will at some point have to go to public school. My Rabbeim and seforim tell me to have bitachon, and things will work out shelo kederech hateva. That’s the whole concept of bitachon- Hashem runs the world, not me. Hashleich al Hashem yehavecha. At some point, you have to suspend rational thought and have bitachon.
AZ, I think this is why you come across as not being credible. Instead of saying “Math is not my strong suit, I’m just looking at the basic math from the NASI project” you try to steer the conversation away towards questions that don’t answer the actual point. That is somewhat intellectually dishonest. If anything, my math was proving your point more than you were. Sometimes, it pays to be upfront rather than ignoring things.
AZ said:
Now assuming the signers of the letters aren’t dumb. The only reason to write so would be to alleviate the age gap problem.
You have no right to put words into their mouths. It is also the epitome of EVIL for you claim that we hold these gedolim as dumb because we recognize what they say, not what you want them to say.
SJS:
AZ, I think this is why you come across as not being credible.
If all the seas were ink…
I unabashedly admit: Math is not my strong suit, I’m just looking at the basic math from the NASI project.
1. Population growth
2. Age Gap
This is obvious.
The details 3.67% growth per year 4.35 growth per year etc. are not my strong point and I leave that to the people involved with NASI and others (like Mox). Whether we have 8.6% or 11.4% of girls without a chance to have families doesn’t really concern me. EITHER way it is we must do whatever we can to alleviate the situation.
**EDITED** (We have our reasons why we keep deleting that comment. Take the hint already)
PT: Without personal attacks please clarify which points you have difficulty with, or is it the specific suggested solutions.
You can go to Israel’s central burea of Statistics website they have the ratios broken down by district and religion. In ’07 they ranged from 102.2 to 106.7 per 100. I remember seeing something more specific but I do not remember where right now.
Regarding going off the derech I think we have to define the term. If it means completely leaving the orthidox community and that number is 6% and the ratio is skewed very heavily in the direction of boys then you are right we have an even bigger problem.
Since I have as of yet not been able to obtain any hard numbers on this I can only go by my own experience and that of people I have spoken to.
It should be noted that GOTD is only one reason people become unmarriageable. There are others, some of which pertain disproportionately to girls.
Re the math all I meant is that you don’t take the boys reduce them by six percent and then add four percent. You first add four percent then you reduce it by 6%. It does not make such a big defference when you are only talking about one year but if you keep going it makes a big difference.
Re the ratio of men to women – Women do not outnumber men until about age 60. You can look at the CDC’s website they have death rates broken down by gender.
Jothar: Are you saying that we should have bitachon and not attempt to do anything about the shidduch crisis-despite our recognizing that age gap is the central factor creating the problem.
I have difficulty when someone comes claiming that they are doing the work of the gedolim, and when push comes to shove, it seems like tere is a clear line where the gedolim end and where they begin.
My source for what the gedolim have said is you, AZ. All they say do is give a bracha to one who marries an “older single” nothing more, nothing less.
What I find interesting is who else seems to agree with my statement about your misrepresenting the gedolim. The poster who agree with me come from both the left and the right.
You then come out and use this bracha as a soapbox for this age-gap agenda. You use negative proofs, you bully (by claiming those who disagree with your assumption believe that gedolim are dumb), you always put the burden of proof on others (like you are now) and when things quiet down you make ridiculous statements like “we are all in agreement”
On top of that, you go against the freezer (which is sad because of those gedolim you claim to back you, some are affiliated with the freezer). You also try to get bochrim to forgo Toras Eretz Yisroel for marriage (afterall, you claim, it isn’t all it is made out to be R”L). Such actions have no connection to these, or any gedolim.
The previous thread was shut because it was becoming a waste of time, looks like this is following suit.
You’ll probably say something like “getting girls married is not a waste of time”. Your right, having any meaningful dialogue with you, however, is an exercise in futility.
despite our recognizing that age gap is the central factor creating the problem.
Amazing, you claim to have barely seen the study. You also acknowledge math is not your strong point. You have also previously agreed that the study is limited. Yet you still have the ability to make the above statement? How?
Don’t make me disprove it because you were inable to prove it.
You make my case stronger with each post of yours
PT: Have you had a discussion with any of the signers on the letter?
I personally spoke w/ the following signers.
Harav Shmuel Berenbaum Zatal
Harav Yaakov Perlow Shlita
Harav Shmuel Kamenetsky Shlita
Harav Aryeh Malkiel Kotler Shlita
Harav Matisyahu Salomon Shlita
Harav Chaim Stein
Harav Meir Herskowitz
Harav Aharon Feldman
They all readily recognized the age gap issue. What to do about is the big question. The letter at the time was what they felt was an appropriate step. Feel free to ask any of them about it.
Regarding specific suggestions We can definately discuss, but first lets make sure we agree on the problem. Certainly we can’t attempt to solve a problem if we don’t know what the problem is.
All I saw from the letter was that they give a bracha to those who marry an “older single”. Nice that you spoke with them, but you are the one who needs to prove that they agree with you. The rest of us have no burden of proof (remember what we said about negative proofs)
One need not be a rocket scientist to recognize that population growth plus age gap = a huge problem.
One also not need be a mathematician to recognize that in our schools the younger grades are considerable larger than the older grades.
You seem to disagree with one of the above statement but choose to attack me (i don’t mind) instead of debating the points.
If you feel I haven’t offered compelling arguments to warrant your time to observe whether younger grades are considerably larger than older grades, that is your perogative. However it is obvious in plain sight if you take a peek at any community that is slightly growing.
Please correct
Harav Chaim Stein shlita
Harav Meir Herskowitz shlita
Harav Aharon Feldman shlita
(Typo)
I find it rather strange that a decade or 2 ago (when I / my friends were in shidduchim)there was no talk about a crisis as far as ratio of boys to girls or support as a bargaining chip. Could it be perhaps because back then, the young couple viewed their future as their own responsibility? So maybe, just maybe the solution lies in putting today’s youth back in the driver’s seat. If we stopped babying them, perhaps they’d have an eaiser time committing?
BP Totty _ I think the reason is that 2 ago the boys dated younger. Even 1 decade ago that was the case. But today the dating age for boys has moved up a year or so from then – hence the present situation!
Funny, money definitely was an issue a decade ago, though maybe not two. And the boys seemed to have been older, like 23 when they started dating in my time 25 years ago.
Is it only a coincidence that since Kollel life became the way to go for most Bais Yaakov type girls, we have many more older single girls?
I brought up this point earlier:
AZ stated: As it stands now even if we pushed a magic button and all girls had a million dollars in the bank we would still have the exact same crisis because there are just not enough pants for the skirts.
I responded:If all girls had a million dollars, guys and Shadchanim wouldn’t have to look among the new young crop to find new Shvers able to support easily.
Meaning, the older “not as rich” girls get left over because guys look for “new on the market” rich girls, when the supply runs out.
BP Totty: When you were in elementary school how many friends of yours had 10 siblings?
Nowadays it is quite commonplace. The single greatest factor that has changed in the last fifteen years is family sizes (B”H). That = population growth.
THIS is the reason the problem is so much worse now than it ever was.
HOWEVER, if the only significant age gap marriages (23-19) were from the wealthy 19 yr olds it wouldn’t be such a large problem. There just aren’t that many rich people. What is happening is that to many shidduchim are being redd between 23-19 when the boy could just as easily been redd to a 22 yr old.
Regarding parents who don’t have the means and feel pressured to come up with it. That is the same whether their daughter is 19 or 24. That phenomena would change if the numbers wouldn’t be so skewed. Boys will take what they can get.
PT: “The rest of us have no burden of proof (remember what we said about negative proofs)”
My goal here is not to win arguments. My goal is to raise awareness. Feel free to not bother asking and doing your research. However, if you are interested in helping alleviate the problem you might just choose do speak to them. If you did speak to them I think you might be interested in what they have to say.
Um not really AZ, my grandfather had 12, my mother had 8….so….and the families with 10 siblings now, the kids are younger than 12 years old…
Shaatra: No one claims that there didn’t exist some large families years ago. The question is the numbers. I don’t even think there’s a debate that families of 10 kids (in the askenazai non chasidishe community) are much more commonplace now than 25 years ago.
This not so gradual population explosion has been going on for quite some time, which is why in the last 10 yrs the shidduch crisis has reached such proportions. For a more exact mathematical breakdown i leave to the mathematicians.
Pre-War large family sizes of 10-18 children was not only common, but it was the norm.
Azoiis says that boys will skip over the not so rich older girls for the younger ones.
Az says, boys will take what they can get.
So Azoiis, the girls waiting till they get older, established in their jobs with some savings and earning potential still won’t make them attractive enough?
What kind of xxxx (I can’t think of a good word, but insert extremely negative word of your choice) are we raising?!?!? I will never be desperate enough to be happy to have one of these awful bad actors as a son in law.
Wasn’t there don’t know. How old did boys get married pre war???
For practical puroposes the difference between US the 70’s and 80’s vs the last 10 years is the average family size.
Is someone debating this
Depends how far back you go. Child mortality rates have been declining. It used to be that death of children was fairly common, and there was no government support to pay for large families. The improvement of health care and the increase in government assistance to raise large families have helped.
AZ, On a rational, intellectual level I agree with you. However, clearly on some level we have to suspend rational thought and have bitachon. Based on the tuition crisis, people rationally should have smaller families. People should go to work right away instead of learn in kollel. I give a bracha to anyone who marries close in age as well (al tehi birchas hedyot…). But I would be foolish to call those who do not destroyers of the world. It could be bashert that some women never get married. Rationally speaking, we should abort 2 out of every 100 female fetuses to keep the ratio intact. Would you advocate that as well, or would you say “bitachon”?
AZ, You never asked your zaidas and bubbes about their very large family sizes pre-war?
Where was the pre-war shidduch crisis?
My goal here is not to win arguments. My goal is to raise awareness.
Actually AZ, in order to raise awareness you need to prove there is a problem. So far, you have not. All you’ve succeeded is alientating anyone trying to figure out if there IS a problem with the age gap.
Mox, according to the statistics I’ve been reading, by late teens, women and men are of equal number. So a 1:1 ratio is the way to start out for calculations.
I don’t know where I read the 6% OTD number, so I can’t substantiate it. But even if its only 3%, I would still say from my experience there are twice as many boys that go off than girls. I’m not sure what you are refering to about making people unmarriagable. Can you elaborate please?
Now, to more math.
According to the AviChai study, there are over 200,000 students in Jewish Day Schools of which 54,381 are in the Yeshiva schools.
3173 in 12th grade
3606 in 11th grade
3705 in 10th grade
3784 in 9th grade
3703 in 8th grade
3714 in 7th grade
3914 in 6th grade
3921 in 5th grade
4007 in 4th grade
4101 in 3rd grade
4119 in 2nd grade
4496 in 1st grade
Now, assuming those numbers are correct, if you set up the 12th graders with the 8th graders (23 to 19 year olds) thats a difference of 530 people. But, 11th to 7th is only 103 students and 10th to 6th is 209 students. This is assuming that everyone marries in the 4 year gap. Lets say we reduce the gap to 2 year – In the case of 12th grade to 10th vs 8th, you havent gained a thing. In moving from 11th to 9th vs 7th, you’ve done nothing again. from 10th to 8th vs 6th, you have helped because the 6th grade jumps two hundred students. 9th to 7th vs 5th helps etc.
So its not an automatic help and it doesnt really seem to alleviate the problem anything.
What I want to know of supporters of the age gap crisis – are you saying that the people getting married now are not their basherts?
tzippi,
re: So Azoiis, the girls waiting till they get older, established in their jobs with some savings and earning potential still won’t make them attractive enough?….What kind of xxxx (I can’t think of a good word, but insert extremely negative word of your choice) are we raising?!?!? I will never be desperate enough to be happy to have one of these awful bad actors as a son in law. “
I have a simple answer. Azoi is. (I barely speak Yiddish, but the expression fits very well here). I feel the same way! Let’s face it, either we teach our kids to be self supporting, or we teach them that it’s OK to be dependent. One or the other. Nowadays we’re teaching the latter, unfortunately.
Mod: I’ll let you answer the question yourself. With approx 2000 more older single girls than guys where is there baserts?
Last time I checked the concept that everyone married their “bahsert” is not in the Rambam’s 13 principles of faith. The Arizal writes it only applies for boys who get married by 18.
People can have wonderful marriages and raise wonderful families even when they don’t marry their “bashert”. Truth be told “basherte” is not a practically relevant concept since no one will or can ever know whether they are married to their bashert or not.
Not all posts in bold are from Mods. That bold was actually used by the poster them self
YW Moderator-39
YW 39: Thank you and I apologize.
AZ:
despite our recognizing that age gap is the central factor creating the problem
With approx 2000 more older single girls than guys
We do not recognize this, YOU do. Why do you constantly revert back to these tactics which border on manipulation.
Do you have ANY proof there are 2,000 more girls than guys? (none of this if this then… I want a real study not manipulated numbers based upon a study of a different kind)
AZ, look at my post above. I showed that only in some cases, would forcing marriages closer in age help and in some cases do nothing. But, you choose to ignore it because it doesn’t fit with your numbers. Those were the ones taken directly out of the Avi Chai study.
As far as bashert – to me, if you lead a happy, fulfilling, Torah life with your spouse and family, it IS bashert.
Perhaps not all women are meant to get married. Is there anything written in Jewish works about that? Did all women always statistically get married?
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