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So you’re also copping out on me.
Popa:
98 Honda Civic LX, green, with a shmuz sticker?
2 door yellow with a spoiler and twin unmuffled exhaust pipes.
So you got a new car since three years ago.
Or he has the same sense of humor.
I should have read the end of the car thread where it is clear that he still had the green Civic three months ago.
Lior: SBS-SA is talking about boys who are OTD. A dropout and an OTD are not the same thing. Dropout means no longer attending school. The Jewish community doesn’t allow boys to drop out – of school. We make special schools for boys that don’t fit in. The statistic in the report doesn’t change the fact that there are boys who should be going to shul on Shabbos with their father, but aren’t. Go to any shul and look for the 6th -8th grade boys. You’ll see what he’s talking about.
As far as statistics go, don’t Shadchans have databases with thousands of names? Anyone who does database analysis for a living ought to be able to come up with a decent picture of what’s going on.
Oh, that one? Yes, we still have it but it’s my son’s car now.
By “we” you mean you and me?
http://www.theyeshivaworld.com/coffeeroom/topic/seminary-vs-sherut-leumi/page/2#post-538082
“So you’re also copping out on me.”
A) You’re copping out on yourself. You don’t need someone here to explain what a proper statistical study entails. And you would probably choose not to accept it as necessary even if I did.
B) What would be the point of copping in? As if posting how a proper study is done is more beneficial than communicating that directly to the very people who claim to be in this business (which I have done).
As if posting how a proper study is done is more beneficial than communicating that directly to the very people who claim to be in this business (which I have done).
Post the text of your email into this thread. And change the title to J’accuse!
But, of course, it’s quite beneficial to anonymously level unsubstantiated accusations in a public forum.
I am not affiliated with NASI, Rechnitz or anyone else involved. I am just having a discussion here. From what I see, there would be little benefit to a more comprehensive study and statistical analysis (though it might be nice), and I have no idea how difficult or expensive it would be, or if it’s even feasible. I cannot think of a reasonable explanation for how there wouldn’t be a demographic benefit to closing the age gap (nor a reasonable way of hypothesizing that there isn’t one).
You’re essentially saying, “I do know, but I’m not telling you”. Maybe you’re even correct, but it’s just no way to have a dialog, and certainly no way to get me to change my position.
DY – we’ve had dialogue, the same over and over. We both know at this point that nothing either of us can say in this chatroom to convince the other. I’ve said everything on the subjecthat I will here, and from here on out its just reruns. I’m Ok losing to the propoganda machine, I know tbat I’ve done everythin I can. I am not just having a discussion here.
I can think of a reason not to close the age gap. There are more single boys than girls.
You think there aren’t, but that is an illusion caused by the system where boys say yes first. It looks as if boys have “lists” to choose from when in reality most of the girls on the list are terrible matches and would say no anyway.
How about at least a study on that?
You think that the only reason I think there are more girls than boys is because of lists and dress size requirements and silent phones and maybe even support requirements, but it isn’t. I will freely admit that until I chapped age gap/pop growth (which was before NASI existed), I would very likely have chalked those things up to illusion based on how the system works. That part is reasonable enough that I wouldn’t be satisfued without a study.
But I haven’t yet heard, not from you, not from squeak, not from ubiquitin, or anybody else, a reasonable explanation as to how we wouldn’t have more girls than boys considering the fact that we clearly have an age gap and population growth (nor a reasonable denial of either of those two facts).
I don’t know that we clearly have either age gap or pop growth. We probably do, but I don’t know.
And I certainly don’t know that its enough to counter the extra boys born, if indeed there are.
Extra boys born, extra boys dying, extra boys going otd, extra girls becoming frum, extra girls buying into the torah only philosophy, chassidishe girls crossing over, boys who are not torah only material being overlooked, etc. The list doesn’t end there.
Come on, only a simpleton would think the math is as simple as you claim.
Popa, you agree that it’s probable. I think it’s probable to the point of not reasonable to assume otherwise.
Squeak, let’s analyze.
1) Extra boys born – unreasonable to assume enough to counterbalance.
2) extra boys dying – all the more reason to put more boys in the parsha.
3) extra boys going otd – ditto
4) extra girls becoming frum – ditto
5) extra girls buying into the torah only philosophy – ditto (for Torah only boys)
6) chassidishe girls crossing over – ditto
7) boys who are not torah only material being overlooked – ditto (for Torah only boys)
8) etc. The list doesn’t end there – can’t answer.
Most of the items on your list are alternatives to explain why we see more older female singles than males, but don’t give me any reason to think the problem wouldn’t be alleviated by closing the gap.
Thanks for your response.
That’s what you call analysis? No wonder we don’t understand each other.
Sorry; let’s take it point by point, if you wish.
You were dismissive point by point. There was no analysis. I don’t think you understand that i was listing randomly factors that impact demographics other than birth rates. You can’tignore those factors and then expect to be taken seriously as a demographer.
You continue to show that you do not wish to properly identify the problem as long as you can address something that feels like it should help. I will never agree with you on that. Without properly defining the problem, any solution you develop is just going to make things worse. And that’s why you and all the other age gappers are nothing but troublemakers.
I didn’t dismiss them as irrelevant, I dismissed them as not being valid reasons to not close the age gap. And you didn’t answer that. If you conduct dialogue by talking down to your counterparts without actually addressing the points they bring up, as you do with me, you should continue to expect the reaction you have gotten from the people involved. They’ll continue to ignore you.
Lior – Where are you looking in the report? It seems to me that he is defining OTD as leaving the day school system before 12th grade.
Do you know any Shadchanim who would be willing to confirm or deny your observation about the relative number of men vs. women who are trying to get married? It should be quick and easy to come up with some informal counts for each age or age group. If you are correct that 15% of the men aren’t getting married, then the real problem would be that the unmarried men (and probably women too) need relationship counseling. Putting men in the Parsha earlier could actually make the problem worse since the more selfish and immature the guy is, the harder it is to create a relationship with him. And after he has tried and failed to create a relationship over and over again, he will give up. I know that having relationship counselors instead of Shadchanim is kind of radical but if the problem is the way you describe it, I don’t know of another solution.
Squeak, let’s analyze.
1) Extra boys born – unreasonable to assume enough to counterbalance.
2) extra boys dying – all the more reason to put more boys in the parsha.
3) extra boys going otd – ditto
4) extra girls becoming frum – ditto
5) extra girls buying into the torah only philosophy – ditto (for Torah only boys)
6) chassidishe girls crossing over – ditto
7) boys who are not torah only material being overlooked – ditto (for Torah only boys)
8) etc. The list doesn’t end there – can’t answer.
I think 1 is reasonable enough that you should at least be curious where it gets you, even if you think it is unlikely it gets you all the way. Especially if you believe in shidduch crisis because you believe in age gap.
As to many of the others, I don’t agree that we should solve the “not enough bnei torah” crisis by imposing costs on other parts of society. Suppose there are currently equal numbers of frum boys and girls, but 30% of the girls want bnei torah and only 20% of the boys are bnei torah. If you bring in the boys younger but don’t change the number of girls, you will be creating a shidduch crisis for non-bnei torah boys. Who says it is right to do that?
Also, while I concur that changing age gap can increase the number of boys even if the age gap is not the actual cause (suppose the extra boys born makes up for age gap, but more boys are not learners), I think it does make a difference in terms of the moral imperative on the boys to start dating younger even to their own detriment. If they are causing the problem, I could see more of a obligation on their part to solve it. If the problem is caused by too many girls having unrealistic expectations of what the learning lifestyle is, I have a very hard time accepting that the boys should give up years of their learning and possible sholom bayis to solve that crisis. How about abolish seminaries and solve that one.
DY- don’t make the mistake of thinking that I present myself in the CR the way I do IRL. And even in the CR I only take that tone because I know its a waste of time with you or AZ (n.b. you are very much like Joseph in this regard, having one sided debates and demanding that your opponents repeat themselves time and again or you win the debate by default). You are farkoift and shut off to all reasoning; anything and everything to you only supports your foregone conclusion to force boys to close the age gap.
Also, I haven’t been ignored, I’ve had endless dialogue. I didn’t convince NASI folks to stop, but I know it was not because of my approach.
The reason not to manipulate people into closing the age gap is because you don’t have any evidence that doing so is actually beneficial. If there were an actual reliable study that took into consideration all relevant factora, which showed that we should expect a census of shidduch age folkz to consistently be imbalanced year after year because of age differences, then we could talk. Nothing of that nature is even being considered, the backers of this would take any mumbo jumbo out of a garbage can if they thoughg it would support their cause. Latching on to Avi Chai demonstrates this. I won’t speculate here as to why.
Also, #1 of mine is easily significant enough on its own to debunk the simplistic math. The quoted figure is 105 males born to 100 females consistently. That’s a 5% disparity per year my friend. In order for population growth to render that insignificant you would need to prove a growth rate a few percent higher. Suppose you said 8% for a net excess of 3% girls. You would have to believe our population doubles every 9 years to argue that. Preposturous.
Popa, I don’t have time right now for a full response (as your thoughtful post deserves), but I am working with the assumption that the numbers of point 1 don’t come close to nullifying the disparity, so I don’t think we’re shifting the problem to a different group, we’re addressing an internal numbers issue.
But your hashkafic point would make for an interesting discussion on its own.
And, yes, I am curious, and think it would be of some benefit, but it’s subject to cost/benefit analysis, and not knowing the cost, I’m in no position to j’accuse j’anyone of j’anything.
Popa, you’re good at running numbers. If there are 105 boys to 100 girls, and a 3% annual pop growth, how many boys and girls are there that match up if we assume a three year gap?
Also, a difference of 5 out of a total of 205 children is what percent?
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