Statistician Dr. Charlie Hall's analysis of the marital age gap data

Thanks “Getting it Right”!

I don’t understand Rabbi Rechnitz’ proposed solution. Everyone seems to agree that the majority of 21 year old yeshiva boys are not ready for marriage. If the boys don’t exist, paying Shadchanim to find them is not going to help. Do we really want to “convince” (AKA coerce) a boy into marriage while his classmates are in Israel having a good time =shteiging away with no worries about in-laws, parnassa, etc?

Bottom line is that Rabbi Rechnitz is saying that we need to become more like Chassidim. I would guess that the whole parnassa process is different by the Chassidim too. Where do they get the money for all those kids? If the Chassidishe derech is successful, then I would guess that it needs to be adopted for the yeshiva boys too? If so, then it’s going to take a lot more adjustments than just getting boys married off at age 21.

Popa, no, but l’shitascha, nothing should be considered preposterous without hard data disproving it.

Popa, the women are generally between 20-40.

Lior, I suppose you could say I’m “anyone reading this”.

Anecdotal evidence based on one person’s observations doesn’t hold much weight, but for whatever it’s worth:

Less than 10% of 30-something ladies I know are single. There is no way anywhere close to 25% or even 15% of women over 30 are single. What puzzles me is that the numbers are about the same for 30-something never married guys that I know. I’ve asked this question before (ages ago, different thread) and never got an answer- Am I the only one?

The older single guys I know go about their business and seem less desperate (granted nobody knows how they feel inside) so I find they don’t get the same level of attention as the women, and no one’s throwing pity parties for them. But I know they exist.

Popa, the women are generally between 20-40.

that’s quite a range. would you like me to run some calculations on that?

I did some “arm-chair” calculations and found that (ignoring all other factors) if boys go off the derech more than girls, say for argument sake 2% of boys vs. 1% of girls per year starting at say 15 years old, this compounds up by the time they reach their early twenties to produce exactly the crisis that we are seeing now.

Moreover, this could explain why the scenario seems to be reversed by the chassidim. Perhaps their girls go off more than their boys?

Remember, it is not a factor of large numbers going off (although there probably are). It is a factor of more of one gender going off than the other compounded over the teen years.

If I am correct in this, then the solution will not be social engineering to change the age when boys get married, as this will only succeed in changing the age distribution of the single girl population.

The solution will be to create a more tolerant society in which our children are given room to find their place.

Obviously, this is just a theory and would need to be substantiated by hard data which is in short supply! What it does do however, is show that the existing “age-difference” theory is flawed in that another factor can (at least mathematically) be shown to produce the same phenomenon.

Just saying!

Lior, both.

Popa, I assume there there is a typical pattern of distribution – my guess, a little heavier on the younger side. Kol zeh hichnasti when I said “typical”.

From my observation chasidish boys go OTD more than girls. I don’t know how this does or doesn’t affect the shidduch catastrophe, just putting in my 2 cents. On second thought it might even help! Because OTD fotmerly chasidish boys would marry even non chasidish OTD or irreligious girls! I know this is very far fetched from what the issue is here….

Lior. It’s not how many drop out in total, its whether more boys than girls drop out consistently!

Ivory, your personal observation is interesting, but useless.

That’s why everyone is clamoring for hard data and organized analysis.

I did post my own personal observation earlier, but only in response to a question from Lior to “anyone reading this”. If more people had answered his question, it might have been interesting to see what results we came up with. But no one else took the bait.

And Lior in fact decided I did Not qualify as “anyone reading this”, as he ignored the courtesy.

Squeak, I liked your post. +1 !

No scientific statistical analysis there, and you’re not pretending (like, ahhemmm, some other people) to give us one.

But a very intriguing idea that I, for one, would never have come up with on my own.

I vote it definitely qualifies as a serious tzarich iyun.

PBA: can you please take a step back and explain why we need to extrapolate the population growth data from birth rates etc. rather than use school enrollment data which is available and more accurate at this time?

Mamalleh, can you please take a step back and allow me to finish this point with DY before addressing every other question?

We cannot use school enrollment data because it ignores that people move between communities, as well as do schools.

Popa, I assume there there is a typical pattern of distribution – my guess, a little heavier on the younger side. Kol zeh hichnasti when I said “typical”.

Certainly. But what is that typical distribution?

Data regarding age difference among couples is needed too. Has that been addressed anywhere?

Some data hungry people are addressing it, but it should be noted that the typical age at which boys start dating is clearly a few years older than the age girls start dating

And of course as explained elsewhere the Age Gap TM while it MAY explain the shiduch crises it in no way explains why many girls arent even getting dates aka the dating divide TM)

So why aren’t the boys dateless?

And saying “in no way” is unfair, because you know that your point has been addressed, your refusal to accept a valid answer not withstanding.

Ubiquitin, the “dating divide” is a separate issue from the famous (or infamous) Crisis.

The d d is a direct result of shadchanim in certain circles (where the d d is disastrous) redting shidduchim to the boy first. (I’m not the only one who raised this issue here in the past.)

I would have guessed that the Mods have been using their famous (or infamous) invisible ink to post my posts.

Huh?

But actually, the problem, as was explained to me by a very well-known and famous shadchanit (shadchante, if you prefer) is as follows:

This system of redting first to boys was implemented to protect girls from the pain of rejection when a boy says ‘no’. This way the girl gets a boy’s name when she already has a positive answer from him. (There is no fear of causing boys or their parents any discomfort if and when they get a ‘no’.)

This shadchanit would be very interested in changing things and redting to both sides at the same time, but, apparently for the reason she mentioned, she can’t persuade anyone to go along with her.

DY my point is that without knowing the actual distribution, your pop growth numbers are just a guess. You can’t theorize any of the premises either.

New question:

According to this study, the population of MO is shrinking. Yet, I have heard that there is an MO shidduch crisis as well! How can that be?

Perhaps whatever is happening to them is also happening to us?

DY, it you keep claiming that my point has been addressed whn it has not. Though I dont want to hijack this thread for that point.

As to your question why boys arent dateless, it is becasue the system as set up favors the boys (favors is an understatment.) The boys are essentially given a list of girls and told to start picking. Boy says “Yes” To A even if she says no, he will then say “Yes” to B and so on and so forth until he gets that Yes. Therfore a guy is essentially gauranteed a date, regardless of the age gap.

Thanks for conceding though that the the age discrepency of married couples isnt based on hard data.

Syag, your off topic made me laugh.

Why were you so floored?

Because squeak is fun? funny? smart? creative?

Writes well? posts on yeshivaworld?

Owns a computer? IPhone? IPad?

As for your second question, I wonder if the Mods should just mark us all m or f. Or put an asterisk next to the ladies. Or just post the guys in all caps. Ideas?

Okay, squeak and popa, let’s hear your ideas of what would constitute a valid study, and how to conduct it.

As far as I’m concerned, especially since I am not advocating and never have (IIRC) advocated any changes which are not anyhow positive, I am willing to assume that there are no reasonable explanations for how age gap is not a major contributor to the problem. If there were, squeak wouldn’t have to suggest humorous ones.

And popa, who says there’s a crisis for the MO? Any hard data?

You. And I just pointed out your inconsistency.

DY are you crazy?

If I answered that, people would know who I am.

There are so many non humorous explanations.

Let’s hear.

GIYF

Dr. Schick wrote the OTD rate is remarkably negligible.

Let’s not forget that the AviChai study is not geared toward analyzing the shidduch calamity; it’s to study Jewish education. What he may consider insignificant regarding the latter might be relevant to the former.

I have no idea if there are more older female singles in Modern Orthodox communities than older single males, and I am not meshubad to AZ’s opinion.