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Not sure why i’m bothering to respond, but i guess since you asked…
If the shadchanim for those five young women didn’t know the young women prior to the young women and those shadchanim being part of the program, (or if they knew of them but hadn’t redd them a shidduch in a very very long time prior their joining the program,) then i think it’s a fair statement to say that the shidduchim happened as a result of the program.
Surely the possibility exists that even without any program those young women would have gotten married as the Ribbono Shel Olam is a Kol Yachol and doesn’t really need anyone’s assistance. However that reality doesn’t allow us as a tzibbur to not try our best, and that is the driving force behind everything the NASI Project does. To continue to try their best to alleviate the difficult situation.
(side note: not sure what you mean by just pay *them* and things will work out. No one got paid anything unless a young women got married via the program. In all – close to a million dollars passed thru the account(a 0% interest account) and NASI received $500 ea. from the five young women who got married via the program. wow- a total of $2500 to NASI in two years. WHAT A WINDFALL. Not to mention the costs in launching and running the program that was completely covered by NASI (and far exceeded 2500).
The monies of any participant who withdrew received their money in return in full in a timely manner. And now the remainder of all the monies on deposit is of course being returned in full in a timely manner.)
Not sure why you are so bitter/cynical.
In any event, that program has run it’s course.
Onwards……
AZOI.IS, I assume you realize that the reference to multiple rolls was playing off of popa’s previously mentioning that he has several wives. It was a joke (although he hasn’t told any dating stories recently, so my best guess is that he really did get married).
Welcome back, nice to see you again!
Att: GM1 and Mod YWN 127
I would LOVE to see any hard data, that is in the range of scientific muster, in the raw form too. Last spring there was an extensive debate in the Yated about the evidence of the age gap theory causing the shidduch crisis. NASI responded that they have no hard evidence only anecdotal evidence.
Since then I have been a serious skeptic of the age gap theory.
For those willing to doubt NASI’s theory: the male to female ratio in the USA is 105:100. That means that 105 boys are born for very 100 girls. So we need some boys to marry younger so that they have a chance of getting married.
that explains why chasdim have a male shidduch crisis – because they don’t marry younger.
AZOI, the second item is easily explained as a direct result of the gender disparity.
The second item would ring truer if we observed that there are lots of guys left over, and primarily the less bright ones.
It seems to me that while we’ve observed way too many bright girls who remain unmarried, we haven’t seen nearly as many less bright guys.
One crucial aspect of all this that I can’t believe is being forgotten or ignored, is that every person has a Zivug and a set time for when they will marry. Where is your Emunah in Hashem in all this??? Rabbi Ezriel Tauber said that a single can sit home and twiddle their thumbs and another can run after every Shadchan in the world, and neither one will get married any faster than they’re supposed to. The purpose of Hishtadlus is just to do what Hashem asked, and to keep the person from feeling despondent that they’re not doing anything to help themselves, but ultimately it accomplishes nothing. Only Hashem decides, and no statistics or age gaps or any other excuses, or titles (Shidduch crisis) mean anything.
the male to female ratio in the USA is 105:100
That number is the birth ratio. The gap gets much narrower as we approach typical marriage age.
One crucial aspect of all this that I can’t believe is being forgotten or ignored, is that every person has a Zivug and a set time for when they will marry.
I’ve heard that said before, but I don’t think it’s true. Do you have a source?
The commonly quoted source is the Gemara in Sotah, but it doesn’t actually say there’s a bas kol for everyone. In fact, it can’t mean everyone; we see, l”a, children who pass on too young to have gotten married, and people with various conditions which would make it impossible to ever get married. Obviously, there was no bas kol for them.
DY, your comments in this thread and the one you linked expose you as having only the most rudimentary understanding of demography and methematics. For example, if the ratio is 100:105 at birth then it will be fairly similar at age 20. Why would you say it gets much narrower? Death occurs in both genders at a very low rate and even if you were to prove that one gender had a significantly higher death rate it would not be higher by anywhere near 5% of the cohort.
Second, to establish a growth rate for a specific segment of humanity, you need to have a much more sophisticated equation than the one you keep throwing around. Telling me how many children an average family has does not tell me enough about the birth rate but lets leave that alone for now. Assuming you did have enough information to quantify birth rates properly, you have ignored all other variables. The most important ones being death rates, entry from group and exit from group, among others. My understanding is that death rates are not very significant (hey, at least im consistent. You cant ignore death rates in one post and tben say they eliminate 5% of your population in the next post) so lets set that aside too. That bring me to the heart of the matter, which is entry and exit from your segment. And believe me brother, any way you cut it that is a huge, not just significant, factor that cannot be missing from your equation if you want to have any credibility at all. Whether we are discussing baalei tsuva and otd, or migration across sub segment (chassidish girls going out with litvish boys is a big one) or any other element of this factor, the gender makeup of this migration pattern az well as the timing is a major element. Some intellectual honesty. Please.
The avi chai study that nasi folks flaunt sbamelessly is far from reliable. To be blunt, it is crock. Compare the numbers in two separate studies (from different years) and you will see that migration is clouding the data. Otherwise, why isnt the 5th grade population the same as the 2nd grade population from the study 3 years prior? Without migration the number of kids would be the same.
The letter signed by tbe 70 is crock too. They were obviously mislead into signing something that shamelessly made opinion appear like fact. Whatever the intentions of the writers were, that was wrong.
Farkoift v’echol farkoift u’shesay.
Squeak, thank you for your response.
Why would you say it gets much narrower?
Based on data from The World Factbook (yes, I originally found it on Wikipedia).
You’ve agreed to the basic equation, you’re just saying that migration could mitigate or eliminate the disparity. Hamotzi meichaveiroi alav haraya.
It’s also against an almost universally observed phenomenon, and every possible migration you mention is counterintuitive.
If anything, more boys seem to go otd or migrate to
non shidduch communities, and more girls seem to become bt.
You’ve mentioned litvish girls marrying chassidish boys before. The notion if that having any serious affect on the demographics is so far fetched to me that I literally thought it was another one of your faked moon landing bubbe maisas.
B’kitzur, the notion of these migrations is highly unlikely to have any significant effect on the disparity which it seems you agree would exist without migration, so even though it’s not 100% muchrach, it’s worth working with the fairly safe assumption that the observed disparity isn’t merely an illusion IF there would be no negative side effects.
That’s a big IF, though, but I’ve not really commented much on that aspect of it. We might agree on that issue.
“You’ve agreed to the basic equation, you’re just saying that migration could mitigate or eliminate the disparity. Hamotzi meichaveiroi alav haraya.”
The motzi in this case is not me, but NASI. I favor doing nothing (until a good suggestion comes along). They want to (and have) shaken up the frum world. They should bring rayos. But they have not.
“If anything, more boys seem to go otd or migrate to
non shidduch communities, and more girls seem to become bt.”
Precisely.
“the observed disparity isn’t merely an illusion IF there would be no negative side effects.
That’s a big IF, though, but I’ve not really commented much on that aspect of it. We might agree on that issue.”
My friend, if you don’t agree with what someone is doing, you don’t support them partially. You oppose them thoroughly. The side efeects here are worse than the benefit (and the potential sixe effects are thousands of times worse than the potential benefit) so these people need to be stopped. Even if you believe their foundation is solid and true (and I dont), you need to judge them by their actions. The road to hell is paved with good intentions.
Yes, NASI is the motzi in terms of action, I meant that the migration point is the motzi in terms of the theory.
You’re right about otd/bt. What I should have said is that the difference doesn’t seem to be nearly enough to fully explain the numbers, and in no way negates the demographic reality of age gap/population growth causes gender disparity, and that closing the age gap still helps solve the additional disparity that migration might cause.
I agree that for the most part, twenty year old litvish bochrim shouldn’t be getting married. But there’s not nearly enough downside in focusing shidduch efforts on the twenty-one plus girls to offset the tremendous benefit.
There’s so much talk about the age gap being up there on the list of causes for the shidduch crisis. However, I think that one of the top 2 reasons is probably the fact that both boys and girls (or maybe its their parents) are turning down shidduchim due to “issues” in the family. Be it pysochological/health/number of children etc…
Some are afraid that marrying an only child can be a strain on the couple.
Some are afraid that if there is a psychological issue in the family, it’ll be passed into the young couple’s children. By the way, I’ve spoken to a rav who had an in depth discussion about a certain bochur’s psychological situation with the bachurs psychologist. The psychologist said that in this bochurs case, the only thing that should turn of a girl from marrying this boy, is if this same issue is in the girls family. Now, I dont have any experience with mental/psychological issues, but I would imagine that people who turn boys/girls down because they are afraid, should speak to their rav or a medical professional first. Unfortunately, mental/psychological issues are rampant in the world and unsubstantiated bias is preventing these young wonderful boys/girls from getting married.
Same with a medical issue. Check with a medical professional before you turn someone down.
There are so many diamonds in this world that are housed in great boxes that may have scratches on them. But the diamond is still a diamond! Before you push it to the side, use a loupe on the diamond! Not on the box!
AZ: Maybe NASI could have some sort of program where a medical professional can be available to answer questions from a prospective boy/girl?
I dont have children on the market but I do try to help my single friends. Medical issues are a number one issue that is stopping almost every shidduch from even starting…
May we have many more simchos to share.
a singular mind
Squeak, other than cynicism, I don’t think you’ve shared with us your take on the cause or definition of the “shidduch crisis”.
DaasYochid- I must thank you for mentioning that. I had not realized that the last time I shared my view was so long ago that by now it is no longer remembered. I don’t want to be thought of as nothing but a critic, so thank you for reminding me that I needed to restate them.
You’re very welcome.
I actually agree with some of your criticism (certainly not all), but I don’t think it in any way negates the age gap issue.
BTW, it’s interesting to observe how those who have not yet gotten married think that the shidduch crisis is that nobody’s interested in marrying someone in their category.
I wouldnt know about that (in case you were trying to ask sneakily whether Im looking to get married). I honestly have no horse in this race from any viewpoint.
The age gap is bunk. I understand that you dont automatically agree with me when I say that your demographic equation is too simplistic to even discuss, but that just points to your lack of expertise in demographic studies. No offense intended.
If you've read "NASI Project Responds", have you changed your mind?
Two years ago, when the project came out, AZ said ,”I think we’ve beaten this bush to death and now we will let the results do the talking.”
In reply I stated, “AZ makes one good point: time will tell a lot. if the folks at nasi become filthy rich, as they hope, then obviously nasi has filled a void that actually existed. if they fall flat then we learn, in hindsight, where these folks were coming from – just using scare tactics to make money off of people’s fears and weaknesses.”
Add to that 5 engagements (how many marriages?) in 2 years and there is zero evidence that this program was anything other than another scam perpetrated by people who need to find a real job but cannot because they do not offer anything worthwhile to society.
Besalel, there’s a big gap (pardon the pun) between success and a scam.
Maybe it was a mistake, maybe it didn’t work as conceived.
But I think you’re way out of line to level baseless accusations against NASI, together with vicious personal insults.
There is “zero evidence” of any bad intentions or foul play, and you should brush up on hilchos loshon horo/rechilus/motzi shem ra, and see what we’re allowed to say when there is zero evidence.
Daas Yochid,
If you take a look at the back and forth from two years ago you will see that it was actually AZ who suggested, in response to suggestions that it was a scam, that the success of the program will be the arbiter.
I do not doubt that many sincere people contributed to the program and that many very righteous men were part of that team but ultimately, I have little doubt that the program was driven by greedy shadchunim who managed to use a good cause and manipulate good people into an evil endeavor.
Besalel:
I hope this information will put to rest comments such as yours.
In the individual participant program that was recently closed down. Over the course of the 2 years that the program was active there had be 125 different participants enrolled ranging from 22-40 years old. The average age of the enrolled young women was 27 years old.
215 different dates set up, avg. age of young women set up 27.5
5 married via the program. Including a few that had been dating a very very long time.
Over two years: $700,000+ is the total amount of money that has been deposited/come thru the program (via participants deposits) in the program
$2500 ($500 x 5 marriages) is the total revenue to NASI from the program over the course of two years.
(The shadchanim who made the shidduchim received the appropriate shadchnus for the shidducim they made, from the money that had been placed on deposit on behalf of those now married young women. And the young women’s families were of course thrilled. NASI wrote the checks and sent the monies to the shadchanim.)
Here is some feedback from participants who did NOT many dates via the program.
Thank you for all the time and effort that you have undoubtedly invested into the Nasi program.
Sincerely,
Wow! I am even more impressed! Shkiach to you for not just being a strong visionary, advocate and manager to the last detail of follow through but also continually reassessing your vision of the best help. I have no idea how you stay so focused and committed but on behalf of all of us singles I want to sincerely thank you. The success is not based alone on the matches made but truly from the sense of support and care we each got knowing that someone is that dedicated to klal Yisroel and our struggle. Thank you for acting as though it was your own struggle and being a model of strength, drive and care.
Thank you for your efforts.
Tisku L’mitzvos,
Thank you for the update.
May you merit to see lots of hatzlacha in all of your wonderful work!
Thank you so much for all the efforts you and your staff put in over these years that my daughter was enrolled in the program. Have a wonderful day and wishing you much success on your other projects.
Good morning sorry to hear of this news . Once again thanks for all the effort you continue to put in for our girls
Thank you for your continued interest in facilitating shidduchim. Thank you for the integrity that you have that you’re returning our money so easily.
Yasher Koach,
My wife and I are sad to hear about the termination of this program. You provided a great service to deal with the Shidduch crisis. Please keep us informed of any future developments
I just wanted to say thank you so much for putting together the program I was part of and particularly thank you for your efforts on my behalf.
It is rare today, to find people such as yourself that put so much time selflessly on behalf of others with no incentive. Yes, I was one of those that had a hard time comprehending how such a program is legit, but you proved me otherwise.
May Hashem grant you the strength to continue the incredible work for many years to come!
Hi. First of all, I want to thank you very much for your continuous efforts for myself and all of us still searching for our zivug. I know you work very hard at putting these programs together, and I am sure you are seeing and will see much success from them.
Thank you, for all your hard work. Hatzlacha with all your programs.
Sincerely,
Thank you for ur time and investment in the shidduchim area….
Thanks for all the efforts put into this program – I appreciate it all, and wish you much hatzlachah in all you do to help our girls get married. I certainly think you’ve broken the barrier re the age gap.
Thank you so much for all your efforts on our behalf. We very much appreciate everything you have done and tried to do.
Hope to hear more about your new ideas soon.
now Besalael,
Currently Nasi is involved in numerous other programs, much like they were prior to and during the time the program above was active.
One example is the community programs that have been around longer than the private program. These community programs are now active in Toronto, Montreal, Baltimore, Far Rocakway/Lawrence, Los Angelos, Flatbush and other places.
There have been close to 2,000 different dates set up, Average age of the young women being set up 24 years old, Over 360 different young women have dated seriously (past date #4)
Tens of different shadchanim involved
Over 110 marriages have resulted
And that is just one program they are busy with.
So Besalel, I hope this should put to rest your concerns.
(oh, by the way, the people who run NASI, don’t do it as a “job”, they are actually gainfully employed in other productive manners. Please take this as a lesson before villifying irresponsibly. As for your suggestion, that greedy shadchanim drive Nasi’s activities, we’ll just leave that as another of your irresponsible accusations. Anyone with even a remote affiliation with the program now how silly that is. NASI always has and always will be about alleviating the difficult situation-caused by age age- that far to many of the young women in our community find themselves in vis a vis shidduchim. One of the many tactics employed, is to figure out methods to motivate shadchanim to focus on the young women who are under noticed in the shidduch scene. But to think that shadchanim decide or push for NASI policy, is simply sillyness.
I wasn’t going to write this post, but i figured it would be worthwhile for you to know.
I forgot to mention that in a span of two years, 200 plus different dates, average age getting set up 27 plus, is quite impressive results………
After all, only the Ribbono Shel Olam makes shidduchim, shadchanim can at most set up dates.
That is the simple reality.
AZ, you need to compare it to a group of controls. Out of 200 older singles, probably 5 would have gotten married anyway. That’s hardly impressive.
Actually, what AZ said was impressive was the number of dates, 225, and the numbers he gave were 125 older singles, 22 married. You still need controls to know if that’s more than avg.
I suspect that if it was, the program would have continued.
OK, but the 125 “older singles” included 22 year olds. So I’m not very impressed.
You would have to a control, with 125 girls of the same ages, to be unimpressed.
Oh, I definitely work for NASI. http://www.theyeshivaworld.com/coffeeroom/topic/bread-theory-of-the-shidduch-crisis
Daas: I don’t need a control group of 125 girls. I know much less than 125 single girls between the ages of 22-35, and more than 10 of them got married over the past 2 years.
In fact, based on my friends and acquaintances, I’d extrapolate that a girl who did NOT participate in NASI has a better chance of getting married.
Girl who participates in NASI: 5/125 married
Girl who does not participate in NASI: 12/125 married.
Draw your own conclusions.
We don’t know how many were closer to 22 and how many were closer to 35.
But as I said, had the program been wildly successful, it wouldn’t make sense to close it, so you’re probably right anyway.
Those aren’t even called results by government standards.
You missed where AZ said another 17 got married without the program. So you probably do know a lot less than those girls.
NASI thinks that they are helping girls but they don’t even know what kind of help is needed. They are like a medicine man who gives out fungicide to treat cancer. For a lot of money. About NASI I do shudder.
squeak,
they tried, received a lot of negative press and closed shop.
that it there is to it.
I, for one, am happy there’s s/o trying.
the medicine analogy was uncalled for.
Yitzchok
Starting mass panic and convincing people there’s a age gap crisis is helping who exactly? That’s the problem when you start a panic and don’t solve it. Now people still think it’s true and you have done nothing to help the situation. So people are now living with unnecessary anxiety. That’s cruel in my book.
The medicine analogy explains why they shouldn’t be doing what they do.
WIY, NASI does claim success in their community program. More importantly, I think, but unmeasurable, is the success they’ve had in changing the attitude about closer in age shidduchim. I, and many people I know, have observed that fewer boys consider it a stigma to marry a girl older than them.
I don’t think anyone can’t consider that a good thing.
My feelings go out to all older singles who have not found there bashert. We as a community must reach out to those singles and assist in finding them shidduchim whether through our rabbonim or by having shidduch events.
Finding ones bashert brings about simchas hachayim so let’s make it happen. I should only know I’m one of those trying to find my bashert!
Never give up hope if you tried setting up someone and it didn’t work-out, try again believe me you’ll have the greatest simcha that one can ever imagine.
Squeak: NASI’s self-reported statistics aren’t up to even journalistic standards.
Journalistic standards are whatever sells the most papers. Despite any claims otherwise.
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