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anonymisss:
You make an excellent point. There does seem to be a slightly higher percentage of boys going off the derech than girls although attempts to get hard numbers are understandable difficult. However the percentage difference seems to be slight. If there was some way to change that it, would help the numbers problem a bit. The age gap however is a gorilla of a problem, and as long as it stays the way it is we will continue having a terrible situation of approximately 10% of each girls high school graduating class never having a family.
B”H there does seem to be a trend towards boys being much more willing than ever before to date and marry girls their own age. This is certainly a very good beginning.
AZ, I believe you underestimate the problem. I believe we have a terrible situation of approximately 10% of our boys entering ninth grade/yeshiva who are not graduating from yeshiva.
~a~
Tune in next week for another exciting episode of AZ’s “Shidduch Island”, where you will once again be mesmerized by today’s horrid situation for modern females in search of a mate being left at the alter all alone!
AZ will once again enthrall you with fictional tales and exciting solutions using the latest methods of fallacious mathematics that your algebra professor only wish he knew!
Available only on YWN. Don’t miss it! You won’t regret it. Keep your dial on YWN’s “Shidduch Island”!
(Disclaimer: The views expressed are solely those of AZ, and do not reflect the views of YWN, the Editor, the Moderators, its readers, or the Gedolim AZ misquotes and takes out of context.
Reading discretion advised. Those with heart conditions and other medical issues, as well as persons who cannot tolerate falsehoods, are advised to avoid this thread. Parental consent required for readers under the age of 21. Laws may vary by State or international jurisdictions; please consult a lawyer near you.
If proceeding, you do so solely at your own risk. Please consider all AZ’s statements as for satirical purposes only. )
Most older girls are probably way more mature than most younger boys. even boys and girls the same age are not at the same maturity level. So I think it is poor advice to tell a boy to marry an older girl, unless they are both in their late 20s or 30s and above.
Joseph, be nice.
oomis, agree!
~a~
Joseph,
Might be time for you to shut down the thread. Just like you shut down the science thread
Joseph: I will ignore the personal attacks. Please clarify which of the following two facts you believe to be inaccurate.
Population growth between 3-4%
Average age gap between couples of apox. 3 yrs.
If you disagree please present a argument as to on what basis you feel the population growth based on class sizes is inaccurate. If you agree but still believe that this doesn’t create a numerical discrepancy on shidduch island please clarify.
oomis – At what point exactly do men become more mature than women?
SJSinNYC:
You asked why I discuss 100 boys for 150 girls. In terms of actual numbers here is the sitaution.
Every year aprox. 10% more girls enter shidduch island than boys. Lets take the last five yrs as a small sampling. Per year (based on class sizes) apox. 2,000 boys enter the shidduch parsha which multiplied by 5 yrs is 10,000 boys. During the same time period there were aprox. 2,200 girls per year entering the parsah for a total of 3,000 girls.
If over the last 5 yrs 85% of these boys have gotten married (to girls obviouly). And, even if we assume that every last one of the boys married a girl from that same five year period, the result would be 1,500 left and 2,500 girls left. If 90% percent of the boys have gotten married than the result would be 1,000 boys left and 2,000 girls.
SO while you are right that there are “only” 10% more girls per year than boys. That equals aprox 200 girls per year don’t have a shot, not at 190 and not at 35. When we multiply that by what has been happening for the last 10 years we have a terrible situation.
Baruch Hashem progress has been made towards encouraging more close in age shidduchim as a result of the recent ongoing discussions and public speeches on the issue.
squeak, who said that they do?
AZ, just curious, where are these statistics coming from?
~a~
The main source was the avi chai foundation study of class sizes for all day schools in North America. The results have been corroborated by other studies. I am not an actuary and was not invlolved in discovering the problem although I have seen the studies. I think mox mentioned earlier that he did some of the research. Perhaps he will enlighten us as to the rest of the source material.
Truth be told, one does not need to be a mathematician to realize that B”H our population is growing very rapidly. One also does not need to be a mathematician to realize that girls start dating around 19 and boys around 22. What obviously follows is that there is certainly not enough 22 yr old boys for the 19 yr old girls. Perhaps one need to be a mathematician to figure out if the discrepancy is 9.67% or 11.13% or somewhere in the middle. From my point of view either way it’s an unacceptable problem and something we must do our utmost to alleviate.
ames, a new crisis? I think that’s its own crisis already. Why add to it?
~a~
This is ridiculous. Now even the biggest advocate is admitting that the entire foundation of this “theory” is based on a non-existant avi chai study (which I unearthed in an earlier post, and which has nothing to do with population growth at all but rather with the return of irreligious families to day schools due to improved quality of education). That, and the “feelings” of said advocate that there must be a problem and one does not need any ability to analyze data in order to reach a conclusion.
Huh? When one lacks the ability to properly analyze the situation, it follows that any conclusions drawn are fallacious.
So now, won’t the real AZ please shut up
squeak, it would be befitting for someone like you to speak respectfully to others.
~a~
The reason boys are starting to find older girls appealing is that they can be more assured of support. Nothing to do with personality, building a bayis neeman, etc. Good? Bad? Infantilizing and emasculating? You all choose.
“Since men and women have been getting married, men have married younger women. It seems to be the natural system Hashem has set in the world. It has always worked for every civilization, in every generation, for thousands of years. Why is it all of a sudden the problem?” ames this is all so true! The past generations were all growing populations and none of them seemed to have this crisis before, even after polygamy wasnt practiced anymore, there were no shidduch crisis.
AZ –
Please answer my questions and after I will answer yours.
If you don’t know what my question is – look at my previous posts.
Squeak
I don’t know what you are basing your theory about non religous people going to schools classified as “yeshivish” due to the higher quality education. Even if you are right unless we assume they do not marry into the yeshivish community, they still contribute to the growth rate. As far as the grwoth rate is concerned ot makes no difference whether it is due to natrual growth or “Imigration”.
I would however dispute your contention that there is a wave of children entering the yeshiva system due to the quality of education. If you have any evidince for this I would love to hear it (really).
There are a number of other ways the growth rate has been estimated (granted each with it’s own flaws) such as counting numbers of siblings and extrapoliating from the chareidi growht rate in EY (estiamted at about 5% although it is partially due to immigration).
Just Smile
Where did you get the 10% figure from. Even if 10% don’t graduate from yeshiva IMHO most marry within the community so they would not affect the ratio of girls to boys.
If you do have any hard numbers on the number of boys that go off please let me knowI am very intersted.
where is mox’s post?
mox: it was anonymiss who suggested the 10% of boys go off the derech although there wasn’t any basis for the suggestion.
Just smile:
No one is advocating that boys begin dating before they are ready. what is being advocated is
A. At whatever point a boy begins to date he should be encouraged to date a girl his own age.
B. As it stands now many boys do NOT begin dating based on when they are ready but rather when the system allows for it. That artificial delay is harmful. Without it boys will truly begin when each and every one is ready as a individual. Some will be earlier and some will be later.
Ames:
Danish:
The population explosion that has been experienced in recent years is far far greater than anything in recent history.
Here’s a simple question. Ask people that went to school in the 60’s and 70’s how many of their classmates had families with 10 children. It was almost unheard of. Nowadays especially in the right wing communities it is very commonplace.
OMgoodness AZ. Does that mean that there’s another way to prevent this from continuing into the next generation…? NOT that I am advocating that, just that it’s just as helpful and logical an approach.
What does G-D want is the question. There is no question that we need the leaders of our generation to guide and advise. Somehow, I don’t think having fewer children is the proper approach as that is pretty directly against HIS word.
As for encouraging more close in age shidduhim. That is very doable and effective, there should be no reason not to. Although some members of the CR seem very reluctant and don’t seem to get it, you clearly do.
I have no issue with the age approach, but only after one is assured that the two parties have a reasonable chance of building a bayis neeman together. By limiting one’s shidduch pool to this somewhat narrow window, one is not necessarily ensuring this.
There are so many deeper problems that intersect with the shidduch situation – kids dropping out, financial issues, kavod rabbonus and infrastructure,developing good, solid kids for starters – and focusing on age as the magic bullet strikes me as superficial and facile. I guess I’m missing something.
if you want a segula visit the tips for davening thread
Tzippi, Ames,:
There is absolutely no question that age alone isn’t a reason to date. People need to be compatible. What we are discusing is that age (within reason) should not be a reason NOT to date. To the contrary boys and their parents should look in the very large pool of girls their own age for a girl with whom they think they can build a bayis neeamn.
Clearly the reason for the crisis is the inequity of numbers that is a direct result of the age gap. In the last year and a half there seems to have been so many more close in age shidduchim as a result of the awarenss that has been created.
As for ames contention that girls will not respect their husbands. Clearly it depends on the individual. There are plenty of 24 yr old boys who would earn the respect of plenty of 22-23 year old girls. Do you really think that every 23 year old needs to marry a 19 year old to have a good marriage? Is their any evidence that close in age shidduchim create shaolom bayis prolems?
Tzippi:
In a different thread you write:
“AZ – you talk about supply and demand. Parents – why are you shortchanging your daughters?!? Don’t be so desperate. We’ve got to get our boys to shape up.”
Economics 101. That’s what so pathetic about the situation. The boys have the hammer and can get away with unreasonable shidduch demands (although not all of them take advantage). If we want to empower the girls, let’s even the playing field (numbers). Just watch how boys will “shape up” (your words not mine) when they don’t hold the cards. Unfortunately we are a ways off from that point.
No AZ. What’s pathetic about the situation is the poor behavior. Hashem expects better of His children.
Fair enough.
Without getting into the practicality of whether we will be successful in changing middos. At best, even if successful it will only shift the problem. At the end of the day 150 girls on the island 100 boys ……
If we change the boys middos then perhaps many more of the wonderful girls who may not possess all the superficial trappings will get married at the expense of of the rich pretty etc. At the end of the day, the only way to ensure ALL girls have a shot is to even out the numbers. Is that something you disagree with?
I’m with Tzippi.
Also, if girls only accepted better, no matter what the ratio, the guys would shape up.
SJSinNYC: “IF”, is hasn’t happened yet, no reason to think it will. In addition, even if “he guys would shape up” (your words not mine) the crisis would not be alleviated even one IOTA simply because there are still not enough boys. Which part of the math is difficult?
1. you are using incorrect data from a different study which you are applying inaccurately.
2. You want to know the REAL source of the shidduch crisis? The SAME parents will kick their 20 year old son out of yeshiva to go to college and get a job while INSISTING that their 19 year old daughter find a guy in learning “Because they make the best husbands” (These parents will then pressure the learning guy to leave yeshiva). You now have MANY girls looking for only a few guys.
3. Cut this out about the age gap being the crisis, the crisis is the injustice here created by these parents
so, where is god in this shidduch situation? just wondering… People here are making it sound as if He doesn’t exist.
~a~
How is anything mentioned the past month a segulah?
Proud Tatty:
Your argument is based on saying that their are more girls looking for learning guys than available learning guys. what should follow is the girls girls looking for working guys should have a breeze.
Sorry to tell you it aint so. Try speaking to shaddchanim in the not so right ring crowd and get a sense for what’s going on. Clearly across all spectrums of orthodox jewry (other than chasidish) the girls are having a terrible time of it.
However at least we agree that crisis comes down to an inequity of numbers.
Anonymiss:
It wasn’t HE who told 23 year old boys to date 19 year old girls. If there’s one clear directive from HIM it that boys should be married at 18. (Not that I’m advocating that. Obviously for whatever reason, that is not done in non chasidic communities). Howver, let’s not blame HIM for a totally self imposed tragedy.
The question isn’t where was HE, but were are WE.
GoldieloXX:
This was my original post on page 4
Best segulah:
“Work to CLOSE THE AGE GAP by encouraging more close in age shiddchim. It is THE source of the problem. Not only would this be a segulah because “Kol Hamispalel bi’ad chaveiro vi’hu tzarich li’oso davar hu ne’na techila”, it’s is also the natural solution to the problem.
Is your question answered?
There is a Tefilah, I believe from the Chida which is printed in various siddurim. another segula is tosay Thilim 131 (Shir LaMaalos Esa Einei) in Shmone Esreh before Yihyu LeRotzon
re benuri: do you mean tehillim 121?
In no way shape or form did I agree with you in any shape of form. Somehow you were able to see what you wanted to see and manipulate it into an agreement.
Just like you were able to manipulate a study into proving your point.
Just like you manipulated the topic of segulas to include your talking points.
The same way you manipulate a discussion, shifting the burden of proof with your negative proof.
I have no reason to believe you are not manipulating words of gedolim, taking them out of context.
We have a word for people like you… **EDITED**
AZ – I don’t know what your planet (or island) you are on, but it’s not reality. I’ve never heard of a single boy in my life who was ready to go out and didn’t because the “system didn’t allow it.”
Just because you think they are ready doesn’t mean they are.
And even if they are “ready”, there are other reasons why they are told by Gedolim to wait. One big reason is that if the boy is learning, his learning will not be the same once he gets married. So if he could get in another year or two of “worry free” learning, gedolim push it. I know someone who was red to a very Chashuv Shidduch before he was going out. He told them he’s not going out yet and he wanted to wait another year. The Shadchan pushed and said it’s a really good Shidduch and even though he wasn’t going out yet, he should make an exception. He asked a Shayloh to one of the Gedolei Hador and was told “there is no girl in the world that’s worth a year of learning” and under no circumstances could he come up with a heter for him to start going out earlier for a “better” girl. It is pure Bittul Torah.
In regards to your last question, I would be much more reluctant to go out with a 23 year old who doesn’t have a degree then a 19 year old – what was she doing the last 4 years. There’s a whole lot of older girls who have no degree and nothing to put on the table.
And just for the record, it’s not a 2 girls to 3 boys ratio. – Your numbers are immensely out of proportion.
And while the numbers may be a little off, that is not at all the #1 issue with the shidduch “crisis” nowadays. There are far bigger issues which are actually fixable.
You suggest that boys should go out earlier then they are. Good – go promote divorces.
You suggest that boys should go out earlier then they are. Good – increase the problem.
The problem with you is that you don’t merely state your pathetic opinion, but you hide behind the name of gedolim who would barf if they knew you quoted them the way you do. Then you try to give people guilt trips because they aren’t “listening” to the Rabonim and are causing people not to get married. I don’t doubt that you spoke to Gedolim about this. I’m sure you did. But you can convince anyone of anything if you present it right. It’s not hard to go into a gadols house say look at these numbers, should we tell people to bridge the age gap? The Gadol will say “Makes sense” and now you have their haskama. Why hasn’t a single Rav come out and say it themselves. The come out with a new proclomatuion every day. The Moetzes never came out with something like this. Nor did the Agudah. Nor Torah U’Mesorah. Don’t try to pull that their strategy is to have some shnook flood jewish forums with your trash.
Your eyes are closed to seeing anything other then what you want. There is no point in arguing this anymore. We have gone around in circles for 2 months now. The only reason I commented on your post is because I’m hoping that other people don’t see your filth and actually believe it. As for you, my friend, you are lost until you want to hear. When you do, just reread what everybody wrote to you.
I HEREBY REST MY CASE. I will post on this issue no more.
Mods – Can I suggest that this topic be closed as we are going around in circles?
If there’s one clear directive from HIM it that boys should be married at 18.
Is that really a directive from Him – or is it an observation by the Gedolim who said so. Where exactly is the Gemorah that says shmonah esrai l’chuppah, and in what context is it written? I am not being facetious or argumentative – I have never learned this, as I don’t learn Gemorah, it is merely something I have heard all my life. But what exactly does it mean. Is it a mitzvah D’Oraisa to get married at 18, or is that what the chachomim of that generation felt was prevailing wisdom, given the boys’ hormones and inclinations? Maybe it was just felt that this was the best way of ensuring moral behavior, by marrying the boys off young enough that their physical yetzer would be channeled into a mindset of kedusha.
Another problem with bridging the age gap is that the older a girl gets, generally the more educated/worldly she gets. So, she goes for her masters and starts to travel and becomes independant. Often, a regular yeshiva guy who has decided that is ready to get married after sitting in yeshiva is no longer right for her. She might still be very frum, but cannot relate to the yeshiva guys. But, its not like she can relate to the MO guys too. I know plenty of women in this exact predicament.
Solution for the shidduch “crisis”? If the boys “have” to wait till 23 (or whenever) so should the girls.
I’m doing what should have been done weeks ago, shutting this thread.
That means the thread AND DISCUSSION are closed. No starting a new thread and no somehow managing to turn another thread into this conversation
It ain’t over (any more) ’til it’s over (again).
Has 39 been overruled? What kind of bump is this?
100 is higher than 39, so can overrule him.
solution to the shidduch crisis: become better people, especially with relating to others. Pushing people who are not mature enough to get married is not a solution.
Ari-free, to qote AZ:
If we change the boys middos then perhaps many more of the wonderful girls who may not possess all the superficial trappings will get married at the expense of of the rich pretty etc. At the end of the day, the only way to ensure ALL girls have a shot is to even out the numbers. Is that something you disagree with?
I think you might be defining “shidduch crisis” differently than AZ.
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