Shidduch Segullah!

not to be nit picky, but you write “If all men marry women 3 years younger, and frum population growth is more than 2% per year (probably this number is too low b”h), this more than offsets the maximum ratio of 105 men: 100 women.”

“(probably this number is too low b”h), more than offsets the problem” doesn’t express the seriousness of the problem.

However, if we all understand the problem I’m good. Unfortunately our good friend joseph seems to disagree.

AZ,

It has clearly been established that there are not more young women of marriageable age alive than men. So all you are left with is the growth factor and the age gap. Once you are working upon the assumption that there are an equal amount of men and women (1:1), then for every unmarried woman there is an unmarried man. The age gap not withstanding. The only affect the age gap does, is force some of the women to WAIT longer than they would otherwise have ideally liked to before getting married. It does not leave them unmarried indefinitely.

Additionally (and this point is separate from the previous one), so long as there is ANY frum normal male (in any particular age group) seeking to get married, no unmarried woman (in the equivalent age group) can claim she is unable to get married due to a lack of any candidate for marriage. And we know that (unfortunately) there ARE normal men in EVERY age group that are unmarried seeking to get married.

So to claim that the shidduch crisis is more pronounced for women than for men, is absurd. And the crisis is mainly that of couples marrying later than the ideal, not G-d forbid there being a very large number of people who remain unmarried all their lives.

Looking at my sisters’ high school classes (Bais Yaakov) – my 33 year old sister has one girl in her class that isnt married. My 31 year old sister has 3. Each of them have around 100 girls in their grade.

Is that really a crisis?

Not everyone gets married – some people miss their chance when they are younger and turn down the right opportunity because of something silly or something real.

Dear Joseph:

Speak to Gateways YU Connect Saw You at Sinai, The well known Shadchanim out there in the yeshivish crowd, Invei Hagefen (Agudah) etc. and ask them about the number of girls in their database vs the numbers of boys. This is obviously not a scientific study as it’s possible that for some reason that no one has access to the many many boys and these people only know the girls. However the sheer magnitude of the discrepancy between the numbers is a good place to start.

I am very limitied in terms of the data that the CR will allow however the following will probable be allowed. As of this past succos there were 950 single boys in Lakewood. Take a guess Joseph how many of them were between the ages of 27-28. After your response I’ll give you the answer. I have the list in front of me.

Joseph, I HAVE spoken to the shadchanim, the schools etd. (I have at home a copy of a study school by school how many “older” girls are still unmarried. Clearly some of these will imy”h get married. But not all as the number of boys out there isn’t enough.)

Regarding my moral compass, I apologize for your tears but I gave the mods the phone numbers to check with Rav Shteinman’s Gabbai and Rav Elya Ber’s gabbai to verify their position on this issue. I am comfortable following their moral compass.

OK boys I’m not gonna get involved here in your petty little fight over facts, however, AZ, you yourself show why your “stats” mean nothing. Let me quote what you wrote –

“This is obviously not a scientific study as it’s possible that for some reason that no one has access to the many many boys and these people only know the girls. However the sheer magnitude of the discrepancy between the numbers is a good place to start.”

Definitely a good place to start, yup – to realize why your stats are messed up.

I’m a single Yeshiva guy – going out for a little while now. I’m not in a single “database” or “Shidduch list” none of “Gateways YU Connect Saw You at Sinai, The well known Shadchanim out there in the yeshivish crowd, Invei Hagefen (Agudah) etc” – nothing.

Oh, and did I mention, neither are the vast majority of my friends who are going out.

However, the girls that we go out with and are red to are mostly on these list and places. It’s more a list of single girls then it is a list of singles.

I don’t need every shnook shadchan to give me a call because they have the “perfect” shidduch on paper for me when they have no clue who I am. I have enough people doing that without the lists. But a girl, who it could be a year between dates, would love to get a call from anybody because it just maybe “the one”.

Point at the end of the day – the lists are nothing to go by.

mods, why didnt you say anything next to my comment????????????????

Newsflash to AZ: there are other yeshivos besides Lakewood!

And many quality girls are also open to dating working or close to it boys, if they could find quality sechora. The whole age-based drive seems to be based on a Lakewood trajectory.

wow unbelievable interest. I’ll deal with one at a time.

Joseph: Where have you seen that indicates there are as many 22 yr old boys as 19 yr old girls. That isn’t indicated in the census stats.

Just smile: “I’m a single Yeshiva guy – going out for a little while now” Precisely. The boys who are new to dating are not on anybody’s database. HOWEVER the boys who have been dating 5 yrs ARE. Yet the numbers of girls in the database that have been dating for 5 years outnumbers the numbers of boys by the thousands. That’s why we took a look at OLDER singles in the databases.

“I don’t need every shnook shadchan…. I have enough people doing that without the lists. But a girl, who it could be a year between dates”

I’m sure you are one of a kind and have everyone calling to redd you shiddcuhim, as are every one of your friends. Kind of interesting that you write “But a girl, who it could be a year between dates”

If the boys date every week and the girls once a year, who are the boys dating?????? Obviously there are many many more girls in the pool than boys!!

Tzippi: Last I checked Saw you at Sinai Yu connect, Invei hagefen Gateways aren’t based on a Lakewood trajectory. The reason I use lakewood is simply because it is the single largest collection of dating boys and it is the easiest to get statistics from there.

SJSinNYC: No one can claim to know who the basherte is. This is subject to a huge discussion of which to be honest is not relevant to alleviating the crisis. However if bas ploni l’ploni means that everyone married their basherte than please explain all the older single girls with no one to match up with. Who is their Ploni?????? He got married to someone!

BYTW: The arizl rights that bas ploni l’ploni is only till 18.

Math 101: If the number of boys = the number of girls, then for every girl who doesn’t get a date there should be a boy sitting around. If the “all” the boys are getting dates its because there are far fewer boys “around” than girls.

Incidentally, the reason why the boys can be so selective is a direct result of the inequity of numbers not a cause.

OK, let me address your points to me.

I’m gonna start with the second one to get it out of the way.

I am not one of a kind (well I am but that’s in a different way and has nothing to do with this). I am not a “specially good” boy. I’m not even learning in Yeshiva anymore – I work full time. Yet I still have people calling me while girls don’t. (I’ll explain in the next part why.) Therefore girls tend to put their name on lists much faster then boys. So even in the “been dating for over 6 years” section the numbers will be VERY off.

Now, Yes, there maybe more boys that are 22 then girls that are 19 – therefore what? girls shouldn’t get married as fast – that’s gonna do it – tell a girl don’t go out for 3 more years – that way you’ll find a shidduch faster. Or do you want to tell boys to get married earlier? I hate to say this, if you would’ve tried to convince me to get married at 19-20 i would’ve punched you so hard. I wasn’t stupid enough to know that that is not in my best interest. The people I’m going out with now, first of all I wouldn’t go out with then, and my criteria in what I’m looking for changed a lot in the 3 year from 19-22. I have a better idea. Well now that I’m thinking about it. It’s probably a good idea. Tell guys to marry at 19. Then they’ll get divorced at 21 and remarry at 22. That will solve the shidduch crisis. At least girls will be married for a few years as opposed to never.

Yes there are more 22 yr boys then 19 yr old girls? Therefore what?

We should change

Just Smile: clearly you concede that there are more 22 yr old boys than 19 yr old girls. I haven’t ever (in this forum or elsewhere) suggested that boys get married at 19 nor have we suggested that girls get married at 22. What we are discussing is two points.

1. The community needs to realize the source of the crisis. Only then can we even begin to solve it.

2. Boys who are dating ages 22,23,24,25 should be encouraged by their parents, friends, rebbeim to date girls there own age. Is that SO radical??

This simple tactic has been extremely effective in the last year. Any problem with it?

AZ, I am here as much as before. I don’t want to continue the debate because I get frustrated when talking to missionaries. I’ve had experience with many others, as I made clear at the beginning of this discussion (back on page 4).

But I do owe you an answer to the question you have posed to me so many times. Sorry.

1. I dispute the 3-4%. It is conjured. But this is a minor point.

2. I do not dispute that a 3 yr age difference is considered desirable. I don’t know if it is actually the average, but I would not make this a point of contention since that is the basis of the discussion. In other words, I am trying to defend the practice of allowing an age gap, so why would I dispute that there is one?

As to why there is a second side to the debate, it is because there is so much more to consider than just inputting a growth factor into a spreadsheet. A fifth grade child can tell me what the difference between X * 1.03 ^ 5 and X * 1.03 ^ 2 is. What you are missing is the fact that people are not numbers but people (all actuaries seem to miss this point). They can be represented by numbers if you can account for all their variant behaviors. But you cannot isolate a behavior and model a population based on a single assumption. That is too simplistic. The result of that type of modeling is GIGO.

People die. People get sick. People have disabilities, physical and mental. People can be loners. People can abandon their community. People from outside a community can join. A community can impose harsher standards on certain people than on others. The caveats are endless. Tell me how you accounted for all of this in your model, and then we can renew our discussion.

As I said originally (back on page 4), when the first analyst took up my offer to have me review his model, I suggested some changes and some conservatism and the effect he was trying to prove was nullified.

A suggestion for you, if you are willing, is to actually model a population and include dynamic behaviors, instead of just typing in a number and multiplying it by a factor. Sounds hard? It is! But your way proves naught.

To AZ: OK, I understand you know there are yeshivos beyond BMG. But all the suggestions by a prominent pro-age-engineering organization are geared to the yeshiva guys who go to Israel and then back home for shidduchim. These guys are NOT so well represented on sawyouatsinai, etc.

I think the suggestions are a recipe for disaster. I was determined to hold my tongue till I actually spoke to someone with the organization. But having boys start dating younger? Only going to E”Y AFTER marriage? On whose dime?

We have to encourage independence after marriage. If the safety net is taken away, where are we leaving our kids? Yes, tragically (happened to me) parents die before their kids are on their own, and the kids don’t have the guidance and safety net of a parent at that stage. Hashem steps in for His orphaned kids. We can’t ask for miracles when setting up our kids’ batei neeman.

Oh, and by discouraging boys from learning more than a year in E”Y before marriage: what if they were learning so well in chutz la’aretz that they put off E”Y till 22-23, and what if they are blossoming so so that they need more than a year? What are we doing to this generation’s growth in Torah learning? It has to be more organic, more in sync with what the yachid needs.

Sorry if I’m rambling a bit but I am just so frosted!!!

“This simple tactic has been extremely effective in the last year. Any problem with it?”

Personally, no. But I have many friends who do. A lot of people specifically want to marry a girl thats a few years younger then them for certain reasons. And frankly, I can understand that very much.

Additionally, most people see it as a negative if the girl has been going out for a few years and still not married. Is it just because they haven’t found “the one”, or is there something that I don’t know about? Many people don’t want to take the chance.

If Hashem wants me to get married he’ll send the right girl when he wants her to come. Same thing for girls. Let’s not go jump and get people to go out with different people then they would “for the better good”.

And by the way, one of the big reasons why there are more girls then boys is because it’s much easier to be a “frum yeshivish” girl then a “frum yeshivaish” guy. So you have much more guys that people in the frum community won’t want their daughter to go out with then girls.

AZ –

They either wait longer till they start going out (there are plenty of people who I know that waited a good few years till they were 26,27,28) to “find themselves” but they take themselves “off the market” or they marry “not” good girls from more modern families – but those families aren’t on your radar of shidduchim – so it doesn’t make a difference to you that a more modern girl gets engaged – she wasn’t on any of your lists

On your island you would have 25 boys go off the derech and walk to the other end of the island and marry the Indians while only 3 girls did that. Then you would have 147 girls to 75 boys. (and why are you starting it at 150 and 100 – the numbers aren’t that messed up – there are plenty of single boys out there)

And by the way you seem to have completely ignored my first point.

Just Smile:

You write’ “but those families aren’t on your radar of shidduchim – so it doesn’t make a difference to you that a more modern girl gets engaged – she wasn’t on any of your lists”

I’m not quite sure why you think “modern” girls aren’t on any of the lists. Last I checked the shadchanim and organizations that I’ve spoken to deal will girls from all backgrounds and styles provided they are orthodox. This shidduch crisis exists very very much in the “modern” (I hate labels but you used them) crowd.

As for you first point. That brain lock

“most people see it as a negative if the girl has been going out for a few years and still not married”

is exactly what needs to be countered. There are so many regular normal great girls 21-24 (and older, I’m just using those ages as the initial stage) who have BARELY dated. It is absurd to think that if she isn’t married yet, there must be something wrong with her. B”H as a result of the publicity and discussion of the past year, many many boys have gotten married to girls who are close to their own age. AND guess what? They realized that the silly arguments put forth to NEED a much younger girl are just that, silly.

(That’s not to say that for some boys the right girl for him will be a couple years younger. The issue is correcting the misconception that EVERYONE needs to marry a girl much younger.)

If Hashem wants me to get married he’ll send the right girl when he wants her to come. Same thing for girls. Let’s not go jump and get people to go out with different people then they would “for the better good”.

IF?????? Of course He wants you to get married. The first mitzvah is Pru Urvu. But… many girls and guys do not marry because they do not meet the one they are supposed to marry, because the boy was,”too short, too poor, not learned enough, ” or the girl was “too fat, too tall, too plain, didn’t go to the right seminary…” etc. We set up roadblocks all by ourselves. I ahve a friend who is challushing nwo that her daughter’s friends are getting married left and right and her daughter, who is a great kid, pretty, very, very smart, personable, has excellent middos, and is a great cook, is not dating. What she will not acknowledge to herself, but I will here (I don’t think she reads this forum), is that she is incredibly nit-picky and unrealistic. She doesn’t want a boy whose PARENTS will not support the couple (usually it is the girl whose side gives “kest” isn’t it), because she and her husband are not financially well-ff. But she also only wants “the best boy” from a wealthy home. Most best boys from wealthy homes, have lists and lists of “best girls” also from wealthy homes. She also ONLY wants a very tall boy from a large family. What if the perfect shidduch comes along and he is an only child or has only one or two siblings? She won’t even hear of the shidduch. And she is making these decisions FOR her daughter, without even talking to her to see how she would feel about it. I sincerely pray her daughter does make a perfect shidduch, she deserves it, as she is really a wonderful girl. But with the parameters being so stringent (and I only mentioned a few of the “list” items), it may not happen for a while, and when it does, she may have to compromise many of those “non-negotiables.” I think lots of girls are in this same boat.

AZ, you summed up my opinion very nicely. Not that I believe any one of the factors I listed is the cause for what appears to be a shortage of eligible boys (but what really is only a shortage in a very insular and picky sect). But I believe that your factor is just as insignificant. The issue is not due to any one cause alone (though if I had to pin it down on one, I’d put it to the last one on my list, and the age gap not even in the top 10).

As for other things you have said, I STRONGLY agree with you that the perception of “most people see it as a negative if the girl has been going out for a few years and still not married” NEEDS to be done away with.

Manipulating people is wrong.

There is also an additional factor.

Some people get married and widowed young. Or divorced. So they might marry someone who has never been married. So someone might get married young, get divorced young and never marry again.

AZ, I think you are oversimplifying.

The island I refer to is the total dating pool of orthodox jews in North America. If you have some plane that could ship the thousands of stuck girls and land them in a community with eligible available men, I’ll be the first one to contribute towards the cost of transportation. HOWEVER that solution has yet to be found.

That’s right, AZ, so just take a chill. God’s the one running the show, not you.

~a~

AZ, I think that the new definition of insanity is regurgitating the same quote over and over and spewing the same empty arguments in front of the same audience and expecting to get different results. I don’t buy your side of it because it is bogus. I’ve already explained that 3-4% annual growth is a fabricated and grossly exaggerated number.

The reason that this theory has taken hold, where other theories failed, is because the “blame” given by the theory seems morally acceptable to us. It seems like there is no harm caused by saying that boys should be going out with girls their own age, so we want to accept that this will solve the problem. But if we say (for example) that the problem is that boys have a much harder vetting process (i.e. many years of long days in yeshiva, and the possession of a “plan” – have you ever seen a girl with a plan?) than girls do (half days in sem for a coupla months – who can’t handle that?), that theory is far more difficult to digest. It lays the blame at the feet of a failed system – that we have no way to repair. Which reason is more culpable? The weak will choose yours.

Now please, take it somewhere else. I’ve had enough of this banter.

Squek: You write

“I’ve already explained that 3-4% annual growth is a fabricated and grossly exaggerated number.”

You have claimed, but I don’t recall an explanation. Especially in light of the fact that a study of day schools across North America showed the annual growth to be in the 3-4% range. (the more right wing the larger population growth due to larger family sizes.)

You also write:

“if we say (for example) that the problem is that boys have a much harder vetting process (i.e. many years of long days in yeshiva, and the possession of a “plan” – have you ever seen a girl with a plan?) than girls do (half days in sem for a coupla months – who can’t handle that?), that theory is far more difficult to digest.”

Please explain yourself. In previous posts you have agreed to the (obvious) statement that their are many more girls on the island than boys. The numerical explanation happens to explain that phenomena. Your suggestion about vetting processes etc. which is a re-take on the “it’s much easier to be a good girl than a good guy” theory still doesn’t explain how if every guy gets married to one girl. How are their more girls left at the end of the day. If their are more “good” girls than good” guys. we should be left with a bunch of “good” girls and a equal number of “not good” boys. Yet you yourself admit this is not the case.

The Rov:

I’m not sure which ideas you are referring to. If you mean the concept that THE cause of the shidduch crisis is due to the inequity of numbers on shidduch island. Then I beg to differ. All the names that of Ziknei Hador you have mentioned have signed to this effect encouraging boys to date girls their own age for this reason. The letter has been printed numerous times in various frum newspaper.

You write:

“This is the will of the Lord in his infinite wisdom.”

That is a very convenient remark for a person or community who don’t want to take responsibility for anything. I suppose we should shut down, Hatzalza, Camp Simcha Bonei Oilam, Yad Eliezer, Tomchie Shabbos and any of the other myriad of unbelievable organizations that our community has ongoing. After all what all these organizations have in common is, they help alleviate situations that were brought on by “Lord in his infinite wisdom”. Of course it’s the ratzon hashem and he expects us to be up to the challenge.

Which Ideas? The only ads I saw came fro the NASI Project that has strong backing.

To AZ: encouraging girls to delay shidduchim a few years, and boys to either not learn in E”Y till after marriage or only for an abbreviated time. As to why these can be bad ideas, read a letter in the current Yated that I could have written.

The discussion about boys in E”Y is an entirely different one than what the ad adressed.