Rubah Dlesah Lekaman

That example with the camel is interesting. I wonder if you presented it correctly, because it does not appear to be statistically sound. Call the camel at a time to have children State A, and a regular camel is in State B.

State A is more likely to cause damage than state B. However, if we see a random camel doing damage, that does not imply that it is more likely to be one in state A. It would depend on which ratio is greater: The ratio of the number of camels in state A to state B and the ratio of the likelihood a camel in state A does damage to the likelihood that one in state B does.

For example, let us assume that A camels have a 90% likelihood of causing damage. B camels have only a 2% chance. If we observe a random camel doing damage, the likelihood is that:

1) It was done by a camel in state B, if there are at least 45 times as many B camels as A camels.

2) It was done by a camel in state A, if there are less than 45 times as many B camels as A camels.

3) It is equally likely that it was done by a camel in state A or B, if there are exactly 45 times as many B camels as A camels.

But I will look up the gemara myself 🙂