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Based on the just released UJA 2012 Jewish population study, the forward reports that “Among the Orthodox, ultra-Orthodox Hasidic Jews are the largest group, at 16% of the Jewish population of the eight counties counted in the survey. They outnumber both Modern Orthodox Jews, at 10% of the total Jewish population, and non-Hasidic ultra-Orthodox Jews, at 6% of the population.”
That means that within Orthodoxy the Chareidim make up 69% of the population (the Chasidim alone are 50% of the overall Orthodox and the Litvish/non-Chasidish are 19% of the overall Orthodox) while the Modern Orthodox represent 31% of the Orthodox. So the OP was pretty much on the button.
Also, according to the UJA 2012 report, half of the non-Orthodox marriages between 2006 and 2011 was to a non-Jew.
And while Jews make up a slightly smaller proportion of the population in New York than they did a decade ago, they are way up in Brooklyn. Now, 22% of Brooklynites are Jewish, compared to 18% a decade ago. So while Brooklyn is becoming more Jewish, the other four boroughs of NYC are becoming less Jewish.
It all depends on definitions. Some consider “Hareidi” (i.e. “Ultra-Orthodox”, ro “fanatic”) to mean wearing a yarmulke in public, with married women covering their hair, etc. — and “normal” Orthodox (especiallyas defined 60 years ago, e.g. people such as former Senator Lieberman or Treasury Secretary Lew) to include anyone who belongs to an Orthodox synagogue — then the numbers might be correct.
If you count as hareidi only someone who is so much into yiras shemayim that they never think of doing an aveirah (never speak lashon hora, certainly never look at news sites such as this which are full of lashon horah) then the numbers are quite different.
and according to the American media, a Jew who is observant in any way is ultra-orthodox. Can anyone tell me what that actually means? I don’t know anyone who defines himself as ultra-orthodox.
It all depends on definitions.
Joe counted himself a couple hundred thousand times (once per screenname) and Walla! 70% Charaidi 🙂
Give him another year and it will be up to 80%.
The Pew study can also very well treat people who attend Chabad Houses as “Ultra Orthodox,” since Chabad is considered chasidic/ultra-orthodox (in spite of the group’s relative comfort and ease with modernity, the internet, etc.) Many times, you can end up with someone who drives on shabbos (Chabad doesn’t actively discourage people from driving on shabbos, unlike Young Israel) but learns Lessons in Tanya or Sichos in English and considers himself a Chasid of the Rebbe.
No, the crowd would not have doubled if women had been allowed to come. Most women who would be interested would have household responsibilities that would have prevented them from coming (e.g. if their husbands come, someone has to watch the kids and not everyone can afford to get a babysitter…)
Some women would have come. But nowhere near as many women as men.
The reality we should be learning is this: continuity and commitment are at their strongest in religious milieus where people are not given the option to exercise bechira so easily.
If a person is not allowed to think for themselves, question things, philosophize, make their own decisions regarding major life choices, denied access to television, internet, books, university education, and if they know that thinking for themselves or deviating from what is expected of them will result in ostracism, they’ll be less likely to leave or drop out.
While Haredi communities thrive due to their having 10-15 kids per family, whether theirs is the type of religion that could work for all people is another matter entirely.
Today, Pew Research released additional data points from their 2013 Jewish census. Some of the interesting points were:
2/3 of American Orthodox Jews identify as Hareidi whereas 1/3 identify as MO.
96% of Hareidim and 77% of MO believe in G-d with absolute certainty. (Compared with 41% and 29% of Conservatives and Reform, respectively.)
60% of Hareidim and 55% of MO are Republicans.
25% of Hareidim and 65% of MO have college degrees.
90% of Hareidim live in the Northeast and 1% live out West.
75% of Hareidim and 48% of MO are married by age 25.
97% of Hareidim and 65% of MO say all (or most) of their friends are Jewish.
According to the Pew 2013 study, there are 5.3 million Jews in the United States, of which 10% claim to be Orthodox; at best this puts the Orthodox population at 530,000.
A good deal of the 5.3 million is not Jewish by halachic standards (due in large measure that 58% of Jewish marriages are Intermarriages) which would make the total Jewish population even less but the Orthodox percentage more.
Of the 10% claiming to be Orthodox, only 77% would avoid handling money on Shabbos. This would coincide with your statement that 77% of MO believe in G-d with absolute certainty.
So if we use the strictly Shomrei Torah and Mitzvos as the criteria for Orthodox, this brings the total orthodox population down to 408,000.
If your 2/3 number is correct, this would make the USA Hareidim population about 275,000.
Part of the MO creed is Zionism and Aliyah. Many are saying they cant be an armchair zionist and therefore make Aliyah so while the MO community is shrinking in the US, the Dati Leumi community is growing is Israel and is about 4 x the size of the MO community in the US
60% of Hareidim and 55% of MO are Republicans.
This surprised me. I would have thought most of the “Chareidi” increase would be Chassidim, who are solidly Democrat.
I guess Joe tipped the scales yet again 🙂
How did they figure this out? Nobody called me. Did they call you?
cherrybim: The figures I cited come from a newly released data-laden report from the Pew Research Center entitled “A Portrait of American Orthodox Jews”, dated August 26, 2015. It is available on their website. The JTA has an article on it, dated the same day, entitled “Most Orthodox Jews are Republicans and 11 other findings from Pew”.
The percentage of American Orthodox Jews aged 30 and younger that are Chareidim is significantly higher than the 2/3 overall figure mentioned above.
cherrybim: You’re doing the calculation wrong. You would need to calculate 2/3 of 530,000 not of 408,0000, since Pew is specifying Chareidim constitute 2/3 of their definition of Orthodox.
gavra: According to the most recent Avi Chai study, there are now notably more children in U.S. Chasidish schools than children in Chareidi non-Chasidish schools. (The previous Avi Chai study still showed more non-Chasidic schoolchildren than Chasidic.) So another takeaway from all this, is that within the Chareidi world, Chareidim are becoming more Chasidic. This is not often noticed since Chasidim tend to congregate in living in their own enclaves, thus non-Chasidim don’t see them as much than if they had been more geographically spread out. (That same point holds true to a lesser extent regarding the geographic living clusters of Orthodox Jews compared to non-Orthodox.)
While often they’ll vote Democrat for local races (Councilman, Assemblyman, etc.) based on bread-and-butter issues, they overwhelmingly tend to vote Republican in Statewide and Federal elections. This can be easily corroborated by viewing Board of Election results in overwhelmingly Orthodox, including Chasidic, voting precincts.
While often they’ll vote Democrat for local races (Councilman, Assemblyman, etc.) based on bread-and-butter issues, they overwhelmingly tend to vote Republican in Statewide and Federal elections. This can be easily corroborated by viewing Board of Election results in overwhelmingly Orthodox, including Chasidic, voting precincts.
Except if Marc Rich needs to be pardoned? 🙁
This just shows a major shortcoming of the study, in which those who identify as “Republican” are “independent” (vote what the Rebbe tells them) and end up voting Democrat most of the time.
My point as well was that I expected the Chassidic side to be growing at a higher rate than other Yeraim.
Joseph,
I read the report about the report today, as well. Found some things to be very strange. For example, 93% of all orthodox jews identified as either modern or hareidi. ten percent of modern orthodox jews said they do not fast on yom kippur. seventeen percent do not keep kosher. zero sense.
I have a feeling that many observant jews (which is the general defnition of orthodox) were not included is the category orthodox. this would make sense if the Syrian, Uzbeki, etc Jews were asked if they are othodox and they answered no (because they consider orthodox judaism an ashkenazic/western practice).
i also have a feeling that many non observant jews called themselves modern orthodox because they used to be orthodox (or grew up in an orthodox home) but are now modern and no longer affiliated.
further, within the hareidi camp, the numbers appear to run contrary to what we know about satmar and affilaited chassidus which lean very heavily democrat and by sheer numbers cannot sustain the idea that 60% of chareidim are republicans.
the report of the report raises more questions than it supplies answers.
It’s pretty clear that many have used the term modern orthodox to mean something other than what we mean here.
It’s not correct to throw everyone who is not MO into the Hareidi category.
There are other categories of Orthodox other than Hareidi and MO that should have been addressed and included in the study.
The poll offered multiple choices to respondents who indicated they are Orthodox. They included Yeshivish, Hasidic, and Hareidi, all of which was categorized under Ultra-Orthodox. The MO category also had some other descriptors that fell under it.
Another interesting data point from the recent Avi Chai study shows that the number of schoolchildren in Modern Orthodox schools in the United States actually fell in the five year period from the previous Avi Chai study.
The overall Pew findings are based on a nationally representative sample of U.S. Jews: Telephone interviews were conducted with 3,475 Jews, including 2,786 Jews by religion and 689 Jews of no religion.
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