NASI Initiative

artchill-

NASI and AZ

AZ is NASI

” BUY ONE GET ONE FREE!! ”

Hey, that might be something. That way, I could have one to work, and another to tend to the house.

Yeah, very sad. Well intentioned, but for our young women to be spoken of like this, its deplorable.

Daas Zekainim Mibaalei Tosfos says on the inyan of Lot’s daughters – they said there is no one to marry us because they held they were meyuchasin.

I question whether this is not the same with some of the shidduch crisis. While it is true that there is definitely an issue with a disproportionate amount of boys to girls. However, what needs to be addressed is that many older singles tend to have very picky parents or are picky themselves and that no one is good enough. Not everyone is like this. But many. This has to be a problem that has to be addressed in the course of solving the problem.

I like having NASI around. It is good to have someone to blame for our troubles.

It is like when you stub your toe, and there is nobody to yell at. The best thing that can happen is someone happens to walk by and say something stupid, so you can be mad at them.

far vos,

You don’t seem to get the age gap equation. To simplify, let’s assume there are equal numbers of 22-23 year old boys as there are 22-23 year old girls.

If the 22-23 year old boys only married the 22-23 year old girls, there would be no gender discrepancy; there would be an equal number of older girls as boys. Say, for example, that 98% of all boys get married under the current system but only 92% of the girls do (made up numbers just for illustrative purposes). Under the revamped system, the rate would be 98% for the girls as well. The increased numbers of older girls you describe would be true for 21 year old girls, but once they hit the same age as the boys are when they get married (22-23) they would no longer be older singles, because they would get married.

Oomis, No. In fact, there are aspects of the program which I disagree with.

Hi arthill. I am with ya’ brutha’!!! Say No to NASI!!

far vos,

It’s about 3% a year, the 10% number out there is cumulative, accounting for the 3 or 4 year typical age gap between husband and wife. If it were 10% a year, we’d really be in “g’hokta tzuris”.

There won’t be any more girls getting married. They will just be DIFFERENT girls getting married. These different girls (i.e. older) will be taking the place of the younger ones.

True, but you’re still missing the point. The current system has the older boys “borrowing” from the younger girls. It’s like a Ponzi scheme*; the same number of girls get married either way, but with the current system, some girls nebach get left out at the expense of the younger, ever increasing population. With the proposed system, all of the girls get married, albeit a few years later. Those few tears are, in effect, being distributed to the girls who wouldn’t otherwise get married.

*No, I don’t mean it’s a fraud; it’s not. I mean to compare the math; in theory, a Ponzi sheme could go on forever, with everyone getting their money, as long as the supply of investors keeps growing at a certain pace (which it doesn’t, the reason why Ponzi schemes eventually fall apart).

Those 8 or 10% of girls are still going to be up against the “younger population” for dates.

Not nearly as much if NASI is successful. (I didn’t literally mean all will actually get married, I was referring to the goal.)

far vos,NASI might achieve the goal of getting more CURRENT older singles to get married. However, as I keep saying, this will adversely affect the FUTURE amount of older singles.

I’ll try one more time.

If NASI is successful, the definition of “older singles” will change, as will the percentage of girls overall who have a corresponding boy.

In a “perfect” scenario (mathematically), every girl will have a potential husband.

Say there are 1000 girls born in a given year, and 1000 boys, and nobody marries someone born in a different year. There are 1000 potential shidduchim, with nobody left out. If the next year there are 1030 of each, and they still only marry someone from that year, we again have accounted for everyone, and so on and so forth.

If the age of all of these Yidden is 23, and you still consider a 21 or 22 year old girl as “older”, then, indeed, you could claim that there are more older singles than ever, despite the fact that the shidduch crises has been solved!

far vos: If NASI is successful in its goals, it’ll cause the average age of girls getting married to be older than the current average age of girls getting married. But it won’t cause some of the current younger girls to not have a husband; it’ll just cause them to get married at an older age than they would have under the system as it stands currently.

You wrote: “NASI’s idea will work only if EVERY person marries someone born in the exact same year.”

Actually, all that is needed is for the AVERAGE age gap to be about zero. So one chosson could be 5 years older than his kalla, while another kalla could be 5 years older than her chosson. That would eliminate their being too many girls and too few guys for them to marry. BUT even if that goal is not entirely achieved, but the average age gap is just REDUCED from what it is currently, then it will still cause a lower percentage of girls that won’t have who to marry than the current system causes. Which is an improvement over the current system, even if it doesn’t resolve the problem 100%, it might fix the problem -say- 85%.

Passfan,

Well said, I’ll just add one point. Statistically, there are 105 males born for every 100 females. If this holds true in the frum world as well, the gap does not have to be closed to zero, theres some leeway. In fact, closing it to zero would actually cause an imbalance the other way, in favor of the girls.

AZ,

Far Vos:

“At least according to NASI, it seems pretty clear that 22+ is “older”. That is their definition”

Incorrect (you’ll probably say… ” “ay” they started the program for girls 22+….” that is simply a statement of total lack of undestanding of the situation, the project in general, and this program in particular.

DY feel free to explain.

You could do a more accurate job than I; you contemplated and consulted on this and came up with the ideas, I’m just figuring it out based on the program. But I’ll try, and you’ll please correct me when necessary.

Here goes: 22 is not the age at which a girl is “older” in terms of marriageability, they’re trying to get them married before they become “older”; an ounce of prevention…

“NASI’s idea will work only if EVERY person marries someone born in the exact same year.”

Incorrect

DY feel free to explain

It will work to whatever extent the age gap is closed. My example was an extreme (halevai it should work that well) to illustrate the point.

far vos,

“Actually, all that is needed is for the AVERAGE age gap to be about zero. So one chosson could be 5 years older than his kalla, while another kalla could be 5 years older than her chosson.”

Yes, but this holds true with or without the NASI project.

The NASI project is designed to bring the overall average age gap closer to zero. This is not happening without NASI, currently.

“it might fix the problem -say- 85%” (passfan)

How do you get that percentage?

It was obviously an example and illustration, not a real number (although it’s a real possibility, if the age gap can be closed). You did the same thing with your example of 10% annual population increase.

For any initiative to be successful, some mindsets have to change. One of those mindsets is the idea that girls are somehow corrupted and are no good (certainly no longer the best or the ideal) by exposure to college and/or the workforce. If we are encouraging prioritizing shidduchim for girls 22/23 over those 19/20, girls will have to find something to do for 4 years. How many frum female OT, PT or Speech therapists can the market bear, especially those educated at degree mills that promise degrees in 10 months or less? How many morah/teacher positions are available? Girls will start going to 4 year programs, getting 4 year degress in things like accounting and start working 9-5 jobs. Will those girls be looked at sidways as “college girls” and “modern working girls”?

I dont know what the answer is, but if the goal is to stop marrying at 19/20 and instead do so at 22/23, those 2-3 years will have to be filled with SOMETHING.

Are there any shadchanim who believe that even today, a working girl (this does not mean a pre school assistant or a PT in a frum firm) or a college educated girl is not somehow looked on as inferior goods? If not, please let me know, I know several wonderful girls…

1. Scientific definition of older girl:

young women above age “x”. Age “x” is the age at which the number of reasonably age appropriate men available are fewer than the number of available women. 22 is most certainly BELOW age “x”. In fact at 22 there are far far more available young men, then young women. Simpyl becasue many young women got married at 19/20 and very very few young men get married at that age.

What age is age “x”. No need nor benefit in speculating in this forum, but one thing is certain. As a result of the efforts of the last four plus years and the changes wrought in overall dating attitudes of young men to young women their own age or even slightly older, B”H age “x” is higher than it was 4 years ago.

That is a MAJOR accomplishment.

2. The reason the program MUST start at 22:

(qoute from YWN with minor adjustments)

Are the shadchanim going to redd those boys to 19 year old young women or to 22 year olds ???????

If this program focused only on those 25 and older, shadchanim would continue to redd the 19 and 20 year olds to the larger pool of dating boys. By starting the program at 22 there is NO doubt that the tremendous group of 22 year old young women (and 19 year old young women) will NOT become 42 and single.

Have a nice shabbos

far vos,

Neither of you have yet to refute (AZ hasn’t even attempted) my question as to how this will cause there to be any less older girls in the future.

Untrue; I have.

The only answer you keep coming back to is that in a mathematically perfect world, everything evens out.

Again, untrue. As I’ve already pointed out, there will be a higher percentage of girls who marry, according to the degree of closure of the age gap. It would work on a sliding scale. Your implication that it’s an all or nothing proposition, or that anyone claimed that, is inaccurate.

It comes down to one simple question that I would hope you would be able to answer: what makes you think that every other factor will remain “constant” in the face of manipulation?

Simple answer: every other factor does not have to remain constant for closing the age gap to be an effective measure in closing the gender discrepancy.

This plan doesn’t allow for any other variable to change. It assumes everything else stays the same.

A false assumption.

miritchka, they are putting a price on the girls heads.</em.

Nobody can stop you, or anyone else, from taking a negative perspective on this, but there’s absolutely no reason to look at it this way.

By telling parents their 30 year old daughters wont be looked at for less than $10,000, its not right because even though they dont mean to, shadchanim may demand teh $10,000 even if the girl is not part of the NASI list.

I don’t think shadcanim would have the gall to demand such a thing on their own, although I suppose if this initiative works, we’ll see if I’m right. Al pi halacha, I highly doubt that they would have a right to demand it after the fact.

This whole idea is idiotic. Hashem decides who gets married and when. this initiative shows a tremendous lack of bitachon.

So when you’re ready to get married, don’t bother meeting any girls; that would show a lack of bitachon.

According to your logic, the first NASI initiative also was based on a lack of bitachon. I guess you’re frummer than the 70 roshei yeshiva who supported it.

it’s a third party (NASI) encouraging “

You say encouraging, I say demanding. Potato potahto.

I think that one reason that NASI did this was to get everyone’s attention as to the problems with older girls getting Shidduchim. Instead of everyone complaining, how about we brainstorm on how to solve the problem.

I’ll start. How about everyone taking 2 girls under their wings. Its sometimes easier to promote someone else than your own daughter. Whenever you shmooze with people, let them know about these two wonderful girls who need a shidduch. Do they perhaps know a boy who would be compatible?

What do you think???

You will have more girls who will want to marry so before they hit the 22 year old threshold.

hurry, we have to get Chanie married before she hits 22 years old,otherwise, we have to pay 4 grand.