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write or wrong: this time you’re wrong not write (sic).
You are sweepingly doing away with the concept of statistical data which aside for going against common sense, conflicts with all the ‘rov’s in the gemara which are statistics (ruba d’lesa kamon) e.g. most women give birth after 9 months and most animals are not trefos, most debtors don’t pay up before the loan is due etc. etc.
To the Wolf/On the Ball
You are right that just bc there are 2 possibilities, it doesn’t mean that the probabilities are equal. But how can you assume to know what the probabilities are?
Anything in the world can “happen” or “not happen”, ie bears, cats , television sets falling on someone’s head etc. And in a world where everything is run by teva, the odds would be astronomical for those things to occur. BUT, in a world where everything is run by Hashem, the odds that something will happen are un-knowable to us, bc we don’t know what Hashem wants to happen. Anyone who says they know what the odds are, has to preface it by saying, “In a world run by teva…”. As far as we can see, it should be that everyone’s odds of winning the lottery are 50-50, until we know who the winner is, and then in retrospect, we can say, we either had 100% chance of winning (if we won), or a ZERO percent chance of winning.
There is more chance of a television falling on your head if you own one.
There is more chance of a television falling on your head if you own one
You are more likely to be hit on the head by a television if your house is under the flight path of FedEx freight planes. Your own television is more likely to fall on your feet than your head (unless you are in the habit of crawling on the floor or have a screen high up on the wall). So I would dispute your theory.
Unless you were one of the 3 winners from Illinois,Kansas or Maryland.
BUT, in a world where everything is run by Hashem, the odds that something will happen are un-knowable to us, bc we don’t know what Hashem wants to happen. Anyone who says they know what the odds are, has to preface it by saying, “In a world run by teva…”. As far as we can see, it should be that everyone’s odds of winning the lottery are 50-50,
You’re still wrong. Even if you don’t know (or can’t know) the odds, that *still* doesn’t make all probabilities equal.
If you *truly* believe that, then I suggest you plan your entire retirement on the basis of lottery winnings. If you *truly* believe you have a 50% chance of winning the jackpot every time out, then there really shouldn’t be any need for you to put aside any money for later (or even really to hold a job for longer than a few months).
The Wolf
Right, the probabilities are NOT equal. They are 100-0. Now that I lost, I know Hashem doesn’t want me to win, and I won’t play again.
Now that I lost, I know Hashem doesn’t want me to win, and I won’t play again.
What if He just didn’t want you to win *at that time?*
The Wolf
I knew you were going to say that. My reasoning is, that it may be at some point I will play again (every once in a long while)and see if Hashem’s plan for me has changed. But each time I play, I wouldn’t be bound by the statistics generated by teva. If I lost, my chances of winning were 0%. And if I won, my chances of winning were 100%. All I’m really saying, is that one cannot possibly know his chance of winning beforehand based on statistics, since there is the “G-d factor” which has to be taken into account. And we cannot possibly know what that is.
I wanted to win but I didn’t so sad
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