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NASI and the shidduch crisiseers have been selling us a story for about 10 years now, and have been trying to convince us to make major changes in our society, which would have definite large impacts on how much learning is done in the world, and probably large impacts on how many broken families there are in our community.
Yet, after 10 years, they still are not able to offer up one shred of actual data or evidence to support their claims beyond anecdotal evidence.
When they started, many probably thought they intended to rally interest so that they could do such a study and obtain such data. But it has been a decade now, and still nothing? It doesn’t even seem that they are trying!
I find this outrageous, and very hard to believe. I accuse them of taking our entire community on some outrageous goose chase. I want data. I want to see it. I want to have it analyzed by outsiders. And I don’t want to hear another peep out of them until they either bring it forward or start a fundraising campaign to fund it.
“Yet, after 10 years, they still are not able to offer up one shred of actual data or evidence to support their claims beyond anecdotal evidence.”
Due to a lack of empirical or scientific surveys, no data exists to prove one way or the other.
That fact doesn’t demonstrate that the statistical figures that NASI claims is largely untrue. And if NASI IS largely correct, they cannot stand idly by and let the tragedy to continue to linger due to a lack of studies and provable data.
“When they started, many probably thought they intended to rally interest so that they could do such a study and obtain such data. But it has been a decade now, and still nothing? It doesn’t even seem that they are trying!”
Such a study that could withstand scientific scrutiny would likely cost in the high 6 or low 7 digits dollar figures. Who will pay for it? I’m sure everyone, on both sides of the issue, would love such a study. But there is no realistic opportunity of funding it.
And even if such a large financial donation could be secured, proving the problem would take that much resources away from actually correcting the problem. And potentially defeat the whole purpose of the study if it left the community unable to fund fixing the sources of the problem.
J’accuse popa of tying half of his brain behind his back (and not using much of the other half).
Really? Hiding data? (from your other asinine post)
Why would the people at NASI spend hours of unpaid time to propogate a fraud? It makes no sense.
I won’t even get into how obviously right they are, which you have acknowledged several times in the past (I can’t fathom your backtracking).
Why no study? 1) Nobody who is willing to pay thinks it’s necessary 2) Too hard to get a precise number, especially since it’s hard to precisely define what is the yeshivish community that this affects.
Lior – why do you assume that the problem CAN be solved with money, or that money is even relevant?
gavra – Perhaps the solution is monetarily cost-free. But even if we assume that, that only addresses my last point while leaving all the other points outstanding.
A million dollars for solutions but not one cent for figuring out the problem.
Because they already know what the problem is, and a primary cause.
Did they try? Did they hire consultants to figure it out? Did they try for a second best solution? How about pick 30 yeshivish boys schools and 30 yeshivish girls schools from the elementary school classes graduating in the 90’s and track them? That wouldn’t control for unequal numbers coming in, but would get us some info at least.
How about take one quick look at how many new schools/classes open every year in Lakewood, and realize that you have your answer right there.
That depends what info you’re looking for. If you’re looking for alternate side suspensions, you’re right. If you’re looking for population growth info, it’s pretty good.
BTW, AZ has posted where NASI got info from. I don’t know if there are any updates; as AZ would say, you can email the NASI project and they’ll respond.
http://www.theyeshivaworld.com/coffeeroom/topic/is-there-a-shidduch-crisis/page/2?0#post-109917
Popa_bar_abba, maybe you can get a research student to do some analysis for free. Call around to some colleges and find out if they can have some statistics students volunteer for this kind of non-profit work.
In think the question is – why haven’t the yeshivos switched over to an Israeli/European yeshiva model where the boys start shidduchim earlier since this will solve the problem.
boys vs girls
What, it’s a competition?
Movement? Do you really think more girls go OTD than boys, or more boys become BT? Come on.
Im sure we don’t have 12 percent annual population growth.
Triannual, popa. There isn’t merely a one year gap.
Do you mean physical Lakewood or Lakewood type yeshivish?
I’m pretty sure we don’t have a 12% population growth every three years.
It’s at least pretty close.
I thought you were suggesting you could prove population growth by measuring enrollment in Lakewood schools. I was pointing out that people also move to and from Lakewood. The city.
I was. Unless you think only people with 5 year old kids move to Lakewood, the fact that every year a whole bunch of new primary classes open, more than older grades, should tip you off as to what’s going on.
“Unless you think only people with 5 year old kids move to Lakewood, the fact that every year a whole bunch of new primary classes open, more than older grades, should tip you off as to what’s going on.”
I don’t think it is unreasonable to assume that young couples with no children are moving into Lakewood (and then having children) at a far greater pace than couples with 10, 15 or 18 year old children. Certainly there is a significantly heavier proportion of new Lakewood residents being newlyweds or otherwise younger couples than couples with older children moving into Lakewood from elsewhere.
Lior, fair point, it only proves population growth if it’s not at the expense of other communities (which, I understand, is no longer the case. IOW, after losing for a while, Flatbush, for example, has stabilized).
DY: Outside Lakewood hasn’t been stabilized by the young couples having the most new babies. A larger percentage of the young couples still move to Lakewood from elsewhere whereas only a smaller percentage of older couples move to Lakewood. Lakewood’s growth is still skewed towards the younger couples producing the larger number of little children. (And other places may still retain a sufficient percent of couples to keep their demographics steady compared to Lakewood’s boom.) So using Lakewood as the basis for a general trend will skew towards a different set of data than the overall world.
popa – welcome to my team. Drinks on me anytime.
Daas Yochid is as ever farkoift v’echol, farkoift u’shesay.
That’s the first normal reason I’ve heard to change my mind about this.
Sold. I think squeak is making the mistake of thinking I hold of age gap because of the PR.
“Because of” macht nisht ois. But you yourself would admit that your understanding of demography is limited. And that your expertise in analyzing data is somewhat, um, also limited. And the data itself is somewhat, um- let’s not mince words- flawed to nonexistent. Yet you “know” what’s going on. Yeah.
Anyone who says “its as simple as” is being simple minded.
In G-d we trust. Everyone else, bring me data.
DY: you linked to AZs post that establishes the foundation being in the Avi Chai study. There were two studies, done 3 years apart. The total number of students in say grade 2 day schools in 2005 were x% more than the number of students in grade 2 in 2002. Hence there must have been a growth rate of x/3. Simple.
But the number of students in grade 5 in 2005 sbould equal the number of students in grade 2 in the 2002 study. It does not equal. Not for any grade in the study. Enough said.
What data is missing?
Population growth? Aside from being pretty obvious anecdotally, the Pew report has data on it.
Age gap? You’re right. No studies, but I’ll go with what my eyes tell me, that the starting age for shidduchim has a 3-4 year spread, and most marriages follow suit.
Disparity of older singles? I’m maskim to not accept anecdotal evidence alone on that, it’s reasonable to suggest that there would be a perception bias there. I’m not maskim to dismiss the fact that the first two (growth and gap) lead to a disparity, it is pretty simple math, and experts have confirmed that.
Ela mai? Girls go otd more than boys? 10-12% more boys are born than girls? 8-10% of girls are marrying chsssidishe boys? It’s my weakest link, I’m maskim, but these are all highly counterintuitive (or in the case if birth ratio, against census studies).
Squeak, I didn’t see your latest post when I posted. Avichai might be flawed, but is Pew similarly flawed? I know they were off in terms of classification (frum with Xmas trees??!!) but in numbers as well?
Are you really skeptical that we are experiencing a high rate of population growth? I think even popa accepts that, FWIW (maybe you think he took you up on your free drink offer).
It happens to be that anecdotally I’ve seen a decent number of chassidishe guys marrying non-chassidishe girls. I think this phenomenon has an impact on this discussion.
Summarize the Pew study please.
It is a statistical fact that results of statistical analysis have virtually no secondary applications. That means you cannot extrapolate to a different situation. I have zero doubt that whatever this Pew study shows, it will not be valuable to the issue at hand.
If NASI had any integrity and truly meant that their initiatives were developed based on the studies they claim are the foundation, then they would have shut down and/or commissioned a real study when I told this to Pogrow all those years ago after the fateful Agudah convention.
Ela mai, they are intentional manipulators with an agenda that they will pursue at all cost whether right or wrong.
I agree with Popa, there is very shaky data behind the “crisis”. To see NASI explain the “crisis” in their own words see here http://www.theyeshivaworld.com/coffeeroom/topic/there-is-no-shidduch-crisis
I am picking out one choice quote (sorry I don’t know how to italicize)
The shidduch crisis and age gap concept, were NOT discovered by a statistical analysis of how many girls are still single post 28 years old or whatever arbitrary age we would like to use, and contrasting that with the number of older boys who are single. It is almost impossible to accurately count the total number of singles at any given time.
Papa there we have it: the crisis is based on “overwhelming anecdotal evidence”.
forget about all those silly numbers
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