covid forecast

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  • #2033127

    We had here interesting theoretical discussions about covid. I want to call your attention to the trend in Northern and Eastern USA: like last year, there might be a new peak in winter when more people are indoors (while South peaked during summer).

    Compare in terms of cases first: 30% are unvaxed, but Delta is 3x time more transmissible, so these two compensate for each other. In addition, everyone is tired of restrictions and mobility is way up. Many rely on either vaccine or infection to provide protection, etc. So, overall trend in cases looks like higher than last winter.

    in terms of sickness, obviously those who have antibodies will have it better, but those who are unvaxed will have high chance of getting it. Also, those who had “natural” or vaccine immunity 6 months or even 18 months ago are at risk.

    So, I suggest get off Fox/CNN and take care of yourself and your neighbors. There are more things than just vaccines – test before big events, ventilate, get people to hospitals quick as there are more treatments now.

    #2033162
    Duvidf
    Participant

    In New Zealand people wear masks and keep social distancing when necessary and they have 40 dead to date.

    While the protection of masks to the mask wearer is disputed, the fact that masks prevent the spreading of the disease is undisputed and proven by the numbers.

    Masks and social distancing are the only measures proven to work.

    It is sad and tragic that so many have died bec. of refusal of people to wear masks.

    #2033194
    rightwriter
    Participant

    Why do those with antibodies from 18 or 6 months ago at risk If they still have antibodies? Oh right the media said so therefore you are just parroting it over to us. Ok thanks for the heads up.

    #2033229
    BaltimoreMaven
    Participant

    Some of us still wear masks in Baltimore. Yes I know the joke about it. But the mask shaming is prevalent here and noticeably worse in NJ and NY. I’m just not sure how many people’s minds are going to change based on a CR discussion.

    #2033233

    RW > Why do those with antibodies from 18 or 6 months ago at risk If they still have antibodies

    I did not research what times and levels are appropriate. What is your antibody level now?

    #2033234
    🍫Syag Lchochma
    Participant

    Duvidf- i hope you know science doesn’t work that way. There are so many variables. The fact that the virus ripped thru thousands of people in the east coast before we knew what brakes to put on already dissolves the comparison.

    That is not to say masks don’t help, it’s just to say that using information you don’t fully understand to call people murderers is not any less awful or destructive. Divisiveness kills too, maybe people should add a cork to their mask.

    #2033243

    Syag > virus ripped thru thousands of people in the east coast before we knew

    No doubt, NZ benefitted from being a remote island with more sheep than people. Still, there is already too much time passed to point to early pandemic as an excuse of our behavior. FWIW, I started avoiding crowded places and hugs last Purim and a number of choshuve people tried to make a light joke of it or tried to kiss me in an embrace. I think we just deep down do not respect that Hashem continuously runs the world and we need to listen to his messages. How dare He interrupt our busy schedule with his messages? I can imagine naviim being annoyed that Hashem was waking them up at night with his messages. They would try to switch off the beeping phone.

    #2033242
    🍫Syag Lchochma
    Participant

    What difference does it make where our antibody levels are if reality isn’t being accepted as a criteria?

    #2033241
    Gadolhadorah
    Participant

    Given that most of the “social distancing’ and capacity limit rules have been lifted, even in the more medically “conservative”/politicall progressive jurisdictions, and we have probably vaccinated most of those willing to be vaccinated, a high quality N95 mask may provide YOU with a small level of incremental protection when you are in a crowded venue or you have a compromised immune system, even if you are vaccinated. No guarantees, and difficult to quantify benefits but certainly will provide some small measure of protection.

    #2033252
    HaLeiVi
    Participant

    If the Wuhanvirus makes its way around here, I’d say it hit be much fewer than any previous time, and likely no casualties.

    #2033251
    🍫Syag Lchochma
    Participant

    “I think we just deep down do not respect that Hashem continuously runs the world and we need to listen to his messages.”

    Yes! Yes! I have been saying that about you since your first post! Well said, just poorly aimed. Please hang it on your mirror!


    I can imagine naviim being annoyed that Hashem was waking them up at night with his messages. They would try to switch off the beeping phone.”

    I find your satirical and cartoonist portrayal of the kodesh to be tasteless and disgusting.

    I would bet the most “annoying” thing is that frum jews could create a divisive new religion of their own around this pandemic, creating new halachos of davening, siyumin, minyanim, l”h, mesira, adom lchavero, tochacha, carrying on shabbos, shmiras nefashos, pikuach nefesh, dan lkaf zchus etc, fully surrendering to the y”h.

    #2033250
    HaLeiVi
    Participant

    When the early winter wave happened last year, it did go through our NY communities but not at pandemic levels. It got those who weren’t infected previously and a few of those who did. We all remember what the actual pandemic was like and that wasn’t it.

    The fact that what we were being told (blamed, cautioned) flew in the face of what we knew for a fact, did not help in taking authorities seriously.

    #2033235

    > Some of us still wear masks in Baltimore.

    Is this influence of local Rabbonim or a generally cohesive community? I heard R Hanneman at the beginning of pandemic, he was very forceful.

    Also, when we say “wear masks”, I presume it is a shorthand for responsible behaviors, not a literal thing. One is better off not going where it is risky than sitting in a crowded room in a flimsy mask.

    #2033311
    Yserbius123
    Participant

    @always_ask_questions The Baltimore Rabbonim took COVID very seriously. The Star-K and the Va’ad HaRabonim of Baltimore under the auspices of Rav Moshe Heineman SHLITA and Rav Yaakov Hopfer SHLITA have issued numerous proclamations and guidelines for people and shuls to follow and they were unanimously signed by all the frum shuls and schools. This included masking, vaccines, quarantines, and closures when appropriate.

    Even though now life is mostly gone back to normal, people don’t get funny looks and weird comments if they choose to wear a mask in shul (which many still do).

    #2033331
    rightwriter
    Participant

    Whatever the levels are they are typically as much or higher than those vaccinated and are lasting much longer. Anyway as long as there are antibodies the body has a memory to fight against viruses.

    #2033338
    🍫Syag Lchochma
    Participant

    “Whatever the levels are they are typically as much or higher than those vaccinated and are lasting much longer. ”

    pretty sure you can’t back that up with any facts.

    #2033354
    Avram in MD
    Participant

    Duvidf,

    “In New Zealand people wear masks and keep social distancing when necessary and they have 40 dead to date.”

    New Zealand is doing a whole lot more than masks and social distancing.

    #2033360
    Avram in MD
    Participant

    Always_Ask_Questions,

    “FWIW, I started avoiding crowded places and hugs last Purim”

    Why on earth did you only start doing this last Purim, more than a year into the pandemic response?

    “and a number of choshuve people tried to make a light joke of it or tried to kiss me in an embrace.”

    You must to to a shul with some strange folks. I’ve never had someone try to kiss me in shul, nor have I seen anyone kiss anyone else. Pandemic or no pandemic. And strangely enough, in my shul people tend to be respectful of others’ comfort levels.

    “I think we just deep down do not respect that Hashem continuously runs the world and we need to listen to his messages.”

    It seems that you are the only person in the world who truly respects Hashem and understands His messages. Very lucky.

    #2033414
    Gadolhadorah
    Participant

    Avram in Maryland: “I’ve never had someone try to kiss me in shul, nor have I seen anyone kiss anyone else”

    Consider taking the Baltimore Beltway to I-95, then head south about 30 miles the Washington Beltway (I-495) west towards Silver Spring/ Virginia. As you cross the Potomac River over the American Legion Bridge you will see a big “Virginia is for Lovers” sign on your right. Find a heimeshe shul and then you might have a different perspective than in Maryland.
    P.S. Take your mask and sanitizer.

    #2033417

    @Avram, I meant Purim “hindsight” (20-20)

    #2033418

    RW> Why do those with antibodies from 18 or 6 months ago at risk If they still have antibodies?
    RW > Whatever the levels are they are typically as much

    RW, why are you participating in a discussion at all? You pretty much imply first that your antibody levels are high, and then you seem to admit that you didn’t bother measuring them. So you seem to suggest that people behave carelessly under assumption that they are safe. This is exactly the upcoming danger.

    #2033420

    HaLeivi > I’d say it hit be much fewer than any previous time, and likely no casualties.
    and more similar.

    I can’t speak for your community. We did some analysis here and it may be indeed that some places were hit hard in early months and thus have a lot of immune people. More generally, this is not true – number of people dying in 2021 is more than in 2020. There were Jewish niftarim in 2021, including R Twersky … True, most vulnerable old/sick were already affected or/and vaccinated, but masses of less vulnerable are hit in large numbers. While each has lower probability of sickness, with millions of people, there are still victims.

    Furthermore, when talking about population hit early – many of them undoubtfully losing that early immunity and also Delta is different from early Wuhan.

    #2033431

    GH > Given that most of the “social distancing’ and capacity limit rules have been lifted,

    right, this is eactly what I am saying. My back-of-the-envelope calculation above shows that effect of vaccines is compensated by the increase of mobility.

    #2033433
    Yserbius123
    Participant

    A friend of mine decided to, nebbuch, no longer be shomer Torah u’Mitzvos. He was nervous going to a small family simcha last year, but relieved and weirded out that he got more comments about his mask than lack of peyos.

    And yes, I noticed it too. In some communities, wearing a mask is an open invitation to sarcastic comments and people trying to get overly physical.

    #2033440

    YS > wearing a mask is an open invitation to sarcastic comments

    I heard that too. I guess my community is more “diverse” and “open-minded”. An open-air minyan has different areas, with masked and unmasked somewhat separate, and some outside, some inside a semi-open room.

    #2033444
    🍫Syag Lchochma
    Participant

    In some communities, not wearing a mask is an open invitation to sarcastic comments and people trying to get overly aggressive and hateful.

    fixed that for you

    funny how you would have worded your post if those awful frummies focused on his lack of payos instead of his mask…
    The glass can always be half empty when you want it to be.

    #2033458
    Yserbius123
    Participant

    @syag-lchochma I don’t know what your experience is, but even in the strictest “mask all the time” shuls I davened at the worst you would get is a friendly tap and someone handing you a disposable mask.

    But that was a year ago. I don’t know of any place where someone not wearing a mask will elicit comment. Where are you referring to?

    #2033506
    rightwriter
    Participant

    Always-“RW, why are you participating in a discussion at all? You pretty much imply first that your antibody levels are high, and then you seem to admit that you didn’t bother measuring them. So you seem to suggest that people behave carelessly under assumption that they are safe. This is exactly the upcoming danger.”

    -I didnt imply anything so im not sure where you get that from. In general people have strong high antibodies even 18 months later, and yes they checked. Being careless is wearing a mask which has been proven not to work unless maybe its an N95 which almost noone wears, while taking a never ending amount of vaccines. They programmed you to care about others so much that you dont even take into account what damage you might be doing to yourself.

    #2033657
    EJMRBro
    Participant

    WOW WOW WOW WOW

    #2033666
    n0mesorah
    Participant

    Dear Right,

    Our immune systems are amazing! They have so many parts and do so many things! Just having antibodies, even lots of antibodies is not the same as being immune. Covid is still pandemic. The focus is still on widespread cohesive immunity. The more we do to slow the spread, the greater chance there is that the virus will be come endemic, or seasonal. At that point, you will be correct in stating that your safeguards is up to your own judgement.

    #2033667
    n0mesorah
    Participant

    Dear Duvid,

    In the same vein, it is sad and tragic how much sickness and death there is in the Southern Hemisphere due to superstitions against basic hygiene.

    #2033669
    n0mesorah
    Participant

    Dear Syag,

    I happen to think that the more modern communities are correct to be consciously changing our practices because of the virus. So what if it becomes permanent? I would love to state my case, but I do not think it can be done well on the screen. If we were ever to be on the same delayed flight……..

    Though I most definitely agree with you that the condemnation of those who did not follow the same or even any public health guidelines, was useless. And may very well be the greatest damage we endured in this entire saga.

    #2033670
    n0mesorah
    Participant

    Dear Halevi,

    No casualties is denialism. Even with many safeguards.

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