Bibas Family is probably alive

More likely than not, the Bibis family is alive.

Hamas treats the hostages as currency. If it were up to them, they probably would have rather the adults (besides soldiers) be released before the children. Because they were desperate for a pause and to bring up their image, they released the children and elderly first.

Bibas they see (correctly) as the most iconic and heartwrenching hostages. They most likely feel they can get more from them than the other ones. Perhaps they can secure a complete cease-fire with their release once the pressure builds up. Therefore, it’s best to keep them off the table. The only way to do that, without the truce interruption, is to say they aren’t available one way or the other to be released.

Indicators that they are lying about their death.

Israel has eyes and ears all around Gaza. Statistically speaking, it’s likely there is a small percentage of Gazans who are fed up with Hamas and have been giving information to Israel. If the Bibas family indeed were killed, this should have spread enough that it would reach the ears of one of the informers. I’m assuming that is how Israel found out about the death of their soldier. Israel has said that they have numerous civilians giving them information.

Hamas has generally kept families together. They showed a video of the father stating that his family was killed. If the house was indeed struck, he would not have survived either, or at least not looked the way he did.

When the soldier was murdered HYD, Hamas immediately announced it. It’s unreasonable to believe that Hamas would trade their highest value hostage and lose track of them. If it’s true that this family was killed, It would have been published right away.

Hamas lies. Hostages who they claimed were dead were returned. It’s possible that those hostages they lost track of, or they enjoy tugging at emotions.

If they wanted us to believe that they were dead, they would have shown proof, one way or the other.

I think the most significant indicator, though, that Hamas is still holding onto them is that they offered more hostages and three bodies in exchange for another day. They purposefully did not specify which bodies (we know they are holding bodies). If the family was killed, and they were trying to secure an extra day, they would have a better chance of getting that if they were assured that the identity of those bodies was the family’s.

Overall, with 70% certainty that they are alive. We need to keep davening for all the hostages to be returned and for the safety of those eradicating the filth from this planet.