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bederach hateva
B’derech hateva, the more they let it open up, the healthier it will be, and the more they keep it locked down, the worse it will be. The housing market is doing very well, for example, thanks to low interest rates, so there is plenty of potential for a good economy. If the government continues to intervene in the form of lockdowns and/or closings, though, that potential will be stifled.
Who needs predictions. Trust in hashem
If the Democrats are in control, while they will be anti-business (mindless regulations, “green” policies, higher taxes, treating corporations as cash cows to be milked), they will liberally print money which will replace most of the damage (even if it results in inflation). The biggest threat to frum Jews will be from the fanatic secularists know running the Democratic party, though outside of New York City, they target Christians rather than Jews.
If the Republicans are in control, they will be supporting policies that promote economic growth and prosperity (though it will go badly for the Democrats who like to be apocalyptic alarmists).
If there is a split government, a bit of both. If one party believes the election was stolen, that could be a problem.
Dear Someone,
The economy will naturally be impeded by the pandemic. No shutdown Sweden, still had the largest quarterly fall of the last 40 years. Once the pandemic is behind us, there could be major growth. Unless global crises become the norm.
“they will liberally print money ”
Actually it is the Trump Fed who is printing money right now — to prop up the stock market. Close to seven trillion dollars worth. Expect them to stop that as soon as Biden is elected, causing a stock market crash that they will blame on Biden.
“The housing market is doing very well”
The housing bubble may have finally burst in NYC. I saw a 1 bedroom co-op in Manhattan Upper West Side advertised for $150k. That isn’t “doing very well” that is massive crash! But such as crash is actually very good if it is for real; NYC may finally become an affordable place to live.
“Once the pandemic is behind us, there could be major growth. ”
Assuming that we can dump Trump and his destructive policies on trade and immigration, the US and in particular NYC is going to see a boom like we have rarely seen as soon as the pandemic is past. Our infrastructure remains in place; Democrats will invest massive amounts in renewing it. (Trump promised to, but he lied about that like he did on everything else.) Even more importantly, though, is that there is HUGE pent-up demand for travel, entertainment, and eating out. Airline tickets will be expensive and hard to get — travel will have to be planned 11 months in advanced. Amtrak will be packed to the gills and hopefully the federal government will finally deal with the tunnel problems. Hotels will sell out months in advance and major tourist destinations like NYC will need even more hotel space (hopefully the next Mayor will run roughshod over the NIMBYs with more success than De Blasio). Broadway shows will be sold out for years. Restaurants will be packed and will have to extend hours. This sector will lead the rest of the economy and the Trump Recession will be merely a bad memory.
“they will be supporting policies that promote economic growth and prosperity”
They are opposing such policies now; why would they change next year?
It’s hard to tell, folks invested in the stock market are doing well. Many small brick and mortar businesses won’t survive. Then there is the issue of those who will be newly homeless this year. It’s estimated that 20-40 million households are at risk of being homeless. Even if those numbers are off by half, it’s hard to see how their needs can be met over the long or short term.
I’d love to have an optimistic view on the matter of our economy but covid came at a time when our farmers were fighting the drought and tariffs and there was little industrial growth. Most jobs being added were service industry, and those are directly impacted by openings and closings of businesses nationwide.
I don’t think anyone can predict what will happen in the next 6 months to a year.
Amil Zola,
You correctly mention many problems we face but they are all addressable with the right leadership. It would take a lot less money to pay the rents and mortgages of the people facing homelessness than it is taking to prop up the stock market — but only Democrats are talking about that. Brick and mortar retail was dying even before the pandemic; hopefully the reduced demand for retail space will reduce the rents of the businesses that survive. The cost of drought relief would be even less than rent relief, although we do need to take some constructive steps on climate change in order to prevent future droughts. A free trade President like Biden could end the tariffs on his first day in office, ending that problem. Manufacturing in the US was actually doing pretty well prior to Trump but his trade wars disrupted supply chains and increased costs for US manufacturing. Manufacturing employment wasn’t increasing not because we weren’t making things but because efficient factories are now almost completely automated; future employment will be of engineers designing the factories rather than semi-skilled workers working in them.
I am an optimist that we will overcome.
Charlie, I agree with you 100%. America can’t really look to the Republican party for help, they’ve confirmed they have become a cult of personality. You just need to read the party platform this week. No real plans, no real positions on issues that are vital to the economic survival of our country. Hopefully I can share your optimism in the coming weeks.
Amil, how do you read the Republican platform when there is none?
Reb, admittedly I read the piece of drek that the Republicans affirmed to be their platform. The emperor still has no clothes. May we all see better days.
Trump defines “the economy” in terms of stock ma it home have discovered the Robin Hood trading platform and have been bidding up a few high tech stocks (FAANG plus TSLA) that together account for 1/3 the value of the S&P and the large percentage of its bounce since the March lows. There has never been such a disconnect between the “real economy” and stock market indices. Meanwhile, both the Dems and Repubicans have been printing trillions of dollars to defer the inevitable crash resulting from the pandemic. Watch the market over the next several weeks. We are due for a 10-15 percent drop so hedge your portfolios if you can.
I think the stock market will be dropping significantly within a month or two. There is no way that the current rally isn’t a bubble. You read these articles about how even the most reluctant traders are investing everything just because they don’t want to miss out and you wonder why they don’t see how that is bad news, not good news. When everyone is investing just because the Market is up that means it’s not going up because of any real value and will soon collapse.
The rest of the economy is unpredictable because of Corona so i’m not going to bother trying to predict that.From those I personally know of people who speculate on the market, they have no interest in overall economic theory. The stock market has not really scared away small time investors in the last few decades. They do not see any more risk than usual in a collapsing economy.
As long as the coronavirus is out of control in the US, the virus will adversely affect the economy. It depresses employment, and high unemployment adversely affects consumer spending, which is a primary driver of the US economy. If and when the federal and state governments take effective action to control the coronavirus, then the economy has a chance to recover. All the rest is kidding yourself.
Hashem runs the entire world and the stock market etc…
Just to give you an example. Look how even during coronavirus situation and with everyone running away from NYC etc…. This week the stock market boruch Hashem went up by alot and we pray that it continues to go up cause it affects everyone in the country and the entire economy. This just shows us all proof that Hashem runs the entire world and the stock market cause normally with everyone running out of NYC and the coronavirus situation etc…. The stock market would be way down.
I hope everyone is ready to finally wake up and openly admit to Hashem that the stock market doesn’t depend on sickness and airlines etc… But is all run by Hashem. It’s just a person’s corrupted human mind (yetzer Hara) that fools you into thinking that it’s all in the hands of the market.
the economy will suck for at least 2 to 3 years. and if biden wins at least 5 to 6 years. too much free money being givin out. people should learn to live with less
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