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I tried to post an excerpt from an article titled “All In The Numbers: A Mathematical Explanation For The ‘Shidduch Crisis'”, written by Ariel Halpert, Ph.D. (mathematics) which appeared on the Jewish Press’ website, but it hasn’t posted. He comes to the conclusion that there’s an age gap based discrepancy, based on data from the U.S census.
There are only two fully effective solutions:
1. Litvish girls need to be handed over to Chasidish boys to get married. Better she become a Chosid than an old main and spinstress. There are more Chasidism than Litvaks, so even if the Chasidish suplus of boys is proportionally smaller than the Litvish surplus of girls, the twain shall meet and make a large dent in both problems towards a greater solution.
2. We need leaders with the courage to recognize the expiration of the Cheirim and reinstitute polygamy.
hello99,
The excerpt I tried putting up is now posted. Take a look, and by all means, do a search and read the entire article.
It’s not based on Avi Chai, it’s based on U.S. census. His numbers are 2% per year as of the middle 80’s, but show growth, so it’s likely higher now. He works out the numbers to result in a 10% difference among shidduch aged singles.
Pac: except that you are incorrect. Please do NOT put words (posts) in mouth. Their are far more critical factors (and thus effective methods) than focusing on the freezer rule that you are referenceing. Would changing that help as well? Perhaps by a few months. (though there is a thought that it might not.) Either way that’s unlikely to be accomplished any time soon and that’s not what i’m referencing. If fact if criticism was to be leveled they would be the last since it isn’t they who determine at what age the boys come to their yeshiva……….
Here’s a question to ponder…. IF boys returned from EY on average earlier than they do now and began dating not a day later nor a day earlier then they where ready. What do you think would result. Would the average age at which they begin dating go up or go down……
hello: 99 please indicate what I have done to date or encouraged to “pressure” boys to date before they are ready????
da’as: yes, i know the reason that the boys don’t go to shadchanim
Well, then, by applying the laws of supply and demand it should be obvious that the reason the boys don’t need to go to shadchanim is because there’s a large “supply” of girls! (Unless you think there’s no “demand”, because the boys don’t want to get married, which you probably realize is not true.)
For the sake of clarity, there seems to be a basic disagreement.
Hello99 and Bina are of the firm belief that there are roughly the same number of boys who are single after dating 10 years as there are girls still single after dating 10 years.
I think it boils down to the simle question of “are they correct or not”.
I won’t bother debating that question i’ll simply leave it out there as the critical point at the center of this debate.
DY: he seems to ignore the discrepancy between the numbers of boys and girls born each year. I think my calculation of 2%*3yrs-5%=1% is more accurate.
AZ: The Binah article quoted numerous older girls and senior shadchannim who agree with my assessment that there is not a significant lack of older boys. My personal experience as well is that I know nearly as many single boys in their 30s and early 40s as my wife knows girls. The girls are panicked and the boys overly complacent.
Even if there is a slight discrepancy, your solutions are worse than the problem.
DY: The Chareidi population in America grows by 4% per year as I pointed out in my previous post, (not 2-3% like you quoted from that article, which is discussing the general Orthodox Jewish community).
Hello 99: As I pointed out in my previous post, the Chareidi population in America is growing annually by around 4%. So it is actually statistically impossible that there are the same number of girls age 30+ as there are boys age 30+; 4% per year with 3 year age gap=12%, deduct 4% for male/female birth ratio=8% unmarried. I don’t see how you can possibly ignore this mathematical equation, which is a scientific fact.
Lomed: read the Avi Chai study. The 2% I quoted is only Chareidi!!!
A gut voch. Oomis, if that 40-year old person is still available, please contact me via the mods. I know a single girl who wants someone in learning. Really!
he seems to ignore the discrepancy between the numbers of boys and girls born each year.
That’s not the relevant number; the relevant number is the tertiary ratio, which is 103.
Population growth seems to be more than 2%; he says 2% in the mid 80’s, which is more than the 1.5% in the 70’s. A growing rate of population growth would be more consistent with Lomed’s numbers (although I would guess that the chareidi growth in the U.S. would be slightly lower than in E.Y.).
My wife knows of more older single girls than I know boys, but I wouldn’t have mentioned this anecdotal evidence other than to counter yours. (In fact, at shidduch meetings my wife has attended, all of the ladies know of more girls than boys.)
(In fact, at shidduch meetings my wife has attended, all of the ladies know of more girls than boys.)
Of course women know more girls than boys. I know more boys than girls.
pba,
They come prepared with all the names they got from their husbands.
How did we manage when polygamy was practiced? Was there a girl shortage?
How did we manage when polygamy was practiced? Was there a girl shortage?
I think we both agree that we think that there are too many singles unmarried and that, if possible, something should be done.
I think it’s amazing that you’ve really actually are trying to do something, instead of just sitting back.
Our only difference of opinion, though I may be incorrect, is what exactly is the goal.
From what I’m hearing, the goal is to get as many people married, no matter what – let’s just match them up with people close to their age, and the guys should just go out with these girls not because they may find their bashert this way, but because this is what the Jewish world needs. the guys should sacrifice their wants and needs for the girls.
that’s just not going to happen. then it seems like you’re saying, “we’ll force it to happen, by having shadchanim only set up the guys with those girls.”
my view is that I would like to see as many people married happily as possible, so my stress would be on helping both sides find what they are looking for. if we would somehow succeed at doing this, your complaint seems to be that then there would still be a number of singles unmarried; my answer is I don’t know if that’s true or not – I hear your numbers, but since I don’t think there is something reasonable to do about it, except as Dr. Pepper suggests (and you surely don’t oppose), let’s get more guys married off more quickly, once they do start going out.
Dr. Pepper: actually, your idea and all the people talking about what really is the problem what can the solution be, is the inspiration for my idea.
Truthfully, there is even more to my idea, and i only believe it could work if it would be done well – so i agree that it probably may never happen.
problem that i have seen is what i’ve stated on many other threads is that people don’t know who they are, what they’re looking for, and/or how to explain to others what that might be.
other problems are people who don’t yet want to go out. (what often happens is that they are pushed to do so before they’re ready, and then a few years down the road, when they really are ready, they’re not coming with the same “oomph” and excitement because they already feel that they’ve been going out for a while.
recommendation: kind of a yisro model for shadchanim.
first of all, shadchanim who really care to help both boys and girls find out what they’re really looking for. shadchanim or just plain people who’ve been trained to do so – meet with every boy and girl (it may take more than 1 meeting to get the boys and girls to open up) who are in the parsha, and ask (in order to help -not to judge, criticize, etc. – if they want to go out. (if they get hesistancy, find out why and give good eitza or help (another time i can be more specific – don’t have time now); if still not ready, tell them to not date at all for 6 months and come back to them in 6 months or if ready sooner – make sure they’re getting the help they need or the time and space, if that’s what they need. Then, ask very good questions to completely understand them and what they’re looking for.
Different shadchanim can be responsible for matching different groups of boys and girls. These shadchanim can be in touch with each other or can check the computer to find someone (without names) that might be what the guy (and girl) is looking for. if the guy says, based on that description, he may be interested – then give the name and let the guy check it out.
This way the guys would also want to be on the list – as the shadchanim are interested in helping them find what THEY are looking for and not just in setting up the “poor, nebach girls”.
Do you really believe its only 25 years and up? I would much rather say from 29 years old and up!! Furthermore, its fair to say the number will rise in years to come!! That’s a guarantee!!
Why you say? Because were living in a different velt than 20-30 years ago. The “Modern Woman” of 5771 are well educated, independent, and above all self-sufficient. The yeshivah guy, he’s busy in the BM learning over a machlokes. The answer is obvious and above all there’s not much that can be done.
Hello99: Well then they are dead wrong. TFR- total fertility rate is the most reliable method to determine the growth rate of a given population; a TFR of 6.8 translates to a growth rate of between 3.8 and 4.2%. Additionally, the many secular Israeli studies which all show the chareidi growth rate above 4% are alot more reliable than the avi chai study of a few day schools enrollment.
Daas Yochid: The Chareidi population in America may have a slightly lower growth rate than the Chareidi population in Israel, but this would nevertheless put them close to 4% annual growth rate.
Daas Yochid: The Chareidi population in America may have a slightly lower growth rate than the Chareidi population in Israel, but this would nevertheless put them close to 4% annual growth rate.
You’re probably right; I have been claiming all along that there’s a tremendous discrepancy between the numbers of marriageable age girls and boys. To know the numbers for the U.S., we would have to get a TFR for the chareidi population here.
binahyeseira – I assume that you were addressing AZ, but I’ll disagree with what the goal is (he can speak for himself when he sees this).
I think the goal is to educate people that a 23 year old boy can be every bit as happy if he marries a 22, 23, or even 24 year old girl, as he might be if he married a 19 year old girl.
I know several couples who were in this category, (including my grandparents) and their marriages seem wonderful, B”H.
There are plenty of boys who are not choosy about the age of whom they marry (within reason), so why not try to set them up with a “slightly older” girl with almost no detriment! Often, in fact, a 22 year old girl carries (besides extra maturity) the benefit of having a better income, and despite the stereotypes, most yeshiva boys I know would rather not have to take much support from their in-laws.
As for those who prefer a younger wife, nobody is forcing them to marry or go out with anyone, and their are plenty of shadchanim (and always will be) who will gladly accommodate. The goal concerning this type of boy is to reduce how many of them there are, by removing the “stigma” of marrying an older or close-in-age girl. Anecdotally, there seems to have been some success in this area.
Where I may disagree with AZ is regarding boys going out earlier. I think the tendency in more recent years has been to start younger, often before they are actually ready, so I would think that a further push in that direction would be detrimental from a shalom bayis perspective, which is why I would prefer the gap be closed by encouraging shidduchim with older girls, rather than younger boys.
It is for this same reason (only much more so) that I consider the idea of polygamy to be a laughable solution (besides being illegal). Having marriages between members of different (even frum) cultures is similarly ill advised (this one has exceptions).
“I think we both agree that we think that there are too many singles unmarried and that, if possible, something should be done.”
I agree. I’m not going into the statistical science of whether the cause or one of the causes is – boys should marry girls the same age. It doesn’t really interest me. In my opinion, the statistics were probably made up. You can’t extrapolate from census statistics anything except perhaps how many Frum males and females there are. This doesn’t tell you anything why people aren’t getting married. The PERCENT of unmarried people is much greater than any difference between the statistical number of males vs. females. But I think the people who think they have the solution with these statistics are using it so they have something to hang their hat on.
I’m not like the rest of you Generals sitting in the situation room discussing strategy, I’m down here in the trenches. And I’ll tell you what I see – I see too much Motzay Shem Ra and badmouthing.
We all realize that the 3 weeks are about to begin. So the next time s/o asks you info about s/o for a Shidduch, please think THRICE before you answer, esp. if it’s something negative!
Daas: The biggest agreement I have with AZ is boys marrying younger. The biggest disagreement I have with him is his (currently implicit but previously explicit) advocacy of girls marrying later.
Can you explain your opposition to polygamy? (BTW, the GRA was a big propnent of re-establishing its practice in the Ashkenazic community.)
da’as: that’s fine that you answered. I was addressing you and AZ and any one else (if there was) who were in agreement with you.
Maybe we don’t disagree at all. I have no problem with people marrying people close to their age or being set up with someone close to their age, if the shadchan is setting them up BECAUSE they seem compatible. My husband is about a year older than me and I always preferred going out with someone 1-2 years older than me. I have a sister who married someone a drop younger than her, and I have a brother who married someone a drop older. My grandmother was older than my grandfather (and still outlived him). And i have a number of siblings where the boy is a few years older than the girl. i could care less about the age difference – what i care about is that each of us married a person very compatible. none of us were set up because of our ages, but rather because of our personalities. If you are just trying to make people aware, for their sake, of the benefit for them to marry a 22 year old, then i support that. i support people who are trying to help others find what they are looking for, if they truly listen and understand the people involved.
As i stated before it seems like this discussion circles around whether there the numbers of boys and girls who have dated 10 years and are still single are roughly equal or whetehr they are way out of wack with far more girls being single.
Re specific solutions such as breaking the stigma that prevented boys from marrying girls their own age, boys marrying slighlty younger, getting attention for girls who didn’t just start marrying (which will ineveitably result in fewer girls getting married right away); all feedback, input, insight is valuable.
Ultimately the course of action that has and continues to be taken, is upon careful consideration with well recognized R”Y. For the record, althought every tactic has been planned discussed an implemented only upond serious discussion with leading R”Y, don’t anyone think that there are 70 R”Y with whom every move is planned. That simply lisn’t the case as its simply not feasible to do so. What the 70 R”Y agreed to was what they signed on to.
Pac: Re: Polygamy,
In muslim countries there is a direct correlation between the prevelance of polygamy and repudaition (single women marrying men who where previosuyly married) and the age gap at first marriage.
In other words, societies where larger age gaps at marriage are prevelant, the women having little choice end up either with men who are already married (polygamy) or men who had previouly been married (repudiation).
(this was documented in a atlas published a few years back. If necessary i could probably dig up chapter and verse)
That being, said the bitul cherem drabeinu gershom suggetion is any simply silly to discuss becasue we all know it isn’t going to happen anytime soon.
if we want to help the situation we need to focus our energies on what we can accomplish as opposed to what isn’t going to happen.
If we follow that model we have 3 choices,
1) close the age gap,
2) Encourage repudiation and in fact there are many girls who go that route once they hit the high 20’s/30’s (not that this really help anything, because the women of those first marriages, divorces or widows end up even more stuck since the men who have previously been married have the opportunity to look for women who have never been married instead of women who have been married)
3) polygamy which isn’t happeneing anytime soon
AZ: If there is a will (just like there was with NASI in encouraging close in age shidduchim) we can re-implement polygamy. Don’t make it sounds like moving bricks, because it can be implemented.
Pac: By all means get to work. No one is stopping you. (if your quetion is why isn’t the NASI Project isn’t doing so, the answer is that the people advising them don’t think that is the proper action to take).
You are a free man go for it.
“because it (polygamy) can be implemented”
not without the women’s consent 🙂
am yisroel: The women AZ is trying to help are those who will never be able to get married since there are no single men available. Even AZ acknowledges that his solution will NOT help all the current (and even next) generation of girls as there will still be many without an available man. Surely many if not all these otherwise unmarriagable girls will choose a polygamous marriage rather than none at all. (Besides, who wouldn’t mind a sister-wife helping out with the kids instead of a babysiter!)
Pac: The women I am trying to help are the women who CAN and do have men to marry going forward and it CAN help ALL the women of the next generation. IF we correct the problem and get to it quickly.
There certainly are women for whom the various ideas discussed above will not totally help, because it is highly unlikely that 23 year old boys will be dating 33 year old girls anytime soon.
This all being said I for one won’t be spendig my time and energies on the suggestion of polygamy but hey joseph if you think it’s a good idea go for it.
AZ: Do you not acknowledge that your solution will NOT FULLY be implemented in time for the next generation of girls to FULLY avoid any unmarriageables due to a lack of available bachelors?
Joseph,
The reason polygamy is laughable is because no married woman will (nor should) allow her husband to marry another. It’s also illegal.
Daas: Why “should” she not “allow” her husband to take another? The Sefardim and Teimeini Yidden do, and the Vilna Gaon wanted to have Ashkenazic Jewry do so as well. Are you smarter than the GRA? (Rav Avigdor Miller, amongst others, was also not opposed to reimplementing polygamy.)
“Surely many if not all these otherwise unmarriagable girls will choose a polygamous marriage rather than none at all.”
They’d sooner marry the numerous chassidishe “surplus” boys (but they wouldn’t do that either).
Why “should” she not “allow” her husband to take another?
Because it would create an unsustainable marriage. It’s impossible that Rav Miller Zt”l was in favor of polygamy on a practical level; he would never advise someone to do something stupid (cause marital strife and get thrown in jail).
I’ll get a verbatim quote right off Rav Miller’s tape. Stay tuned.
As far as the legality of it in the United States is concerned, it is only illegal to register more than one (simultaneous) marriage with the State marriage bureau/civil registrar. There are many many currently openly polygamous families in Utah, Texas, Connecticut, and various other States. They are careful to only have one civilally registered marriage (or none) on file. And that’s what they use for taxes. And they are not bothered or prosecuted by any gov’t agency, as it is fully legal to have whatever religious ceremonies they wish or whatever personal living arrangements they wish, with as many people living in their house as they wish, and there is no law against having multiple live-in girl friends. The last time the State even attempted a prosecution was in the 1940’s or ’50’s, and the State lost when it was thrown out of court, and they learnt their lesson. The ONLY time you will see a prosecution for polygamy now is when their is physical child abuse and underage marriage (i.e. A 13 year old girl – in NY State it is even legally possible to marry a 14 year old with judicial approval.)
I know probably ten times as many people divorced in their 20’s as single in their 30’s. That’s probably the main reason I think AZ is dangerous.
Pac: 100% totally solvable. And it’s solvable for the grade that just returned from seminary not just for the “next generation”.
In addition the sooner it is solved the greater trickle up effect there will be that will alleviatge the difficulties facing the girls who have already been dating for a bunch of years.
from a numerical standpoint: to even our the numbers of all the new daters for the year 2011, (i.e. all girls and boys who planeed to start dating in 2011) all we would need to do is to close the age gap by a bit more than one month on average. If we close it by more than that we will alleviate the backlog that already exists. (i will not get into a mathematical discussion on the topic, but those are the numbers to solve this year and each years aprox 10% discrepency)
of course the public can NOT be micro maninpulated to create a result of on average one month closer in age shidduchim in the year 2011 vs. the year 2012, but as a measure of what needs to be accomplisehd we need to continuously close the average age gap by one month year after year until on average the age gap is about one year.
The critical point here is AVERAGE AGE GAP. This doesn’t mean that there will be no marriages of boys significantly onlder than the girl. Of course there always will be such shidduchim. But if we are succesful that more and more close in age shidduchim take place so that the average age continuouisly movers closer and closer, we will win the battle and save the girls.
It is doable and it is happening already and hopefully it will continue.
Pac: if you want to reinstitue polygamy to help the girls who are already older (whatever age that is lets) then see if klal yisroel and their leaders will accept it.
Hello: any data that boys getting married at 22.5 vs getting married at 23 have a higher divorce rate?
Feel free to do a serious study on this.
While you are at it do a study of ages of the girls who got divorced at what age they got married and see if their is any correlation between they age they got married and their getting divorced.
Your suggestion that boys getting married on average closer to 22 vs closer to 23 is a reason for serious shalom bayis alarm is NOT shared by the R”Y who are encouraging this concept (nor is it shared by Pac 🙂
Please do serious research as in speaking to 15 therapists etc and report back.
Out of 15 therapists, 10 of them are the likely cause of divorce.
I’ve spoken to many Rabbonim and mental health professionals who deal with shalom bayis issues. All of them agreed that immaturity is a major factor in the divorce rate and that boys should NOT be encouraged/pressured to date younger.
lomed: can you quote any scientific studies to support your assertion that the Avi Chai survey, that you apparently haven’t even bothered to read, is dead wrong?
AZ,
The boys are mostly starting to date at, max, 22 already. Younger than that is the problem. A certain R”Y whose initials were AZ was against boys marrying too young because he saw the shalom bayis issue that came to him.
Joseph,
Rav Pam would not be m’sader kiddushin for a couple who didn’t register civilly.
The scenario you desire would cause a massive chillul Hashem.
DY: My R”Y (a member of the Moetzes) never inquires about civil registration when he is mesader.
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