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It is the avi chai foundation study that provided the intial basis. feel free to research it.
your sentence
“There are 105 boys born for 100 girls. AT year 18 there are 1,890 boys vs 1000 girls. Argument sake, 10.% of the girls marry. That leaves 900 Girls versus 1,790 boys left.”
there in lies your mistake. at year 18 there may be 1890 boys and 1000 girls (it should actually be 1050 based on 105/100).
HOWEVER what you error in is that these 105 boys don’t date those 100 girls. you need to match up the boys who are 22 (or 23) when these girls turn 18. Due to population growth the number of 22/23 year old boys farout number the number of 18/19 year old girls.
what you have explained beautifully is shiddcuh crisis in the chassidishe oilam where the boys beging shidduchim at 18. Perhpas that is the community you are familiar with and thus present your arguments.
Feel free to use this forum but I personally won’t use this fourm anymore to discuss the mathematics. You can look at the tens of old posts if you’d like to see the mathematical expalnation.
typo:
should read
HOWEVER what you error in is that these 105 boys don’t date those 100 girls. you need to match up the boys who are 22 (or 23) when these girls turn 18. Due to population growth the number of 22/23 year old boys is far LESS than the number of 18/19 year old girls.
AZ- True, we won’t argue the math, but 1) looked up Avi Chai and could not find any article on genders in schools. 2) 105×18= 1890, not 1,050.
Also, your assumptions are incorrect. You are assuming that 18 year old boys do not get married unless they are chasidish. This is a false premise since I know numerous 18 & 19 year old boys who married. Plus, you fail to see the end result if ALL the girls get married at age 20 and below there is still a surplus of boys. You can not argue that boys only marry 18 year old girls because there is a limited amount of 18 year old girls.
Plus you state “Due to population growth the number of 22/23 year old boys farout number the number of 18/19 year old girls.”
This is true and that is what I have been saying. Now you have 22/23 year old boys dating 18-23 year old girls. Population wise, there are more boys in that age group than girls, hence, there is no shidduch crises.
The only thing that will create a crises is when a 22 year old boy wants ONLY an 18 year. And when he turns 23, he still ONLY wants 18. And when he turns 35, he still only wants 18. This is again my premise that we are stuck on foolish ideals. If “nornal” boys date girls their age and below there is NO shidduch crises. As stated before, it is a MAN made issue that will NOT change until the future mother in laws are willing to accept boys and girls who are NOT 18, rich, etc. which are all MAN made.
anon1m0us:
i’m glad that people identities are protected. If for every 100 girls there are 105 boys then for every 1000 girls there are 1050 boys.
while it is true that 105×18 is 1890 please note that 105×36 is 3780 however 105×36 is not relevant to our discussion and neither is 105×18. I apologize if i need to explain to you why, perhaps someone else in the cr would be able to explain it to you.
even you agree that due to population growth there are far more girls ages 18/19 than boys ages 22/23 (see my post earlier re: my typo) hence the shidduch crisis for the girls
your point regarding some non chashdishe boys get married at 18/19 is of course true however the number of boys doing that is extemely small and the standard style avergae age of marriage is 22/23 hence the problem.
I apologize but i really don’t want to rehash all these point. if you’d like look at the earlier threads posts(probably more than five) where these points where laid out clearly.
if boys would in general date girls close to their own age there would be no crisis.
Your point if they date close to their own age *or younger* (implying even much younger) is simply incorrect.
yes the crisis is MAN made and thus we can solve it…… by figuring out ways to encourage close in age shidduchim.
btw i’m curious if you are more familar with the litvishe shidduch scene or the chasidishe crowd.
I think this will be my last post in this thread explaining -again- how age gap creates the shidduch crisis. DY feel free to take over.
AZ: I think this will be my last post in this thread explaining -again- how age gap creates the shidduch crisis.
I highly doubt that.
AZ: It does seem the point is lost on you so we will not rehash. However, the example we used, for simplification was 105 births of boys per YEAR. SO yes, basic math dictates every year there are 105 births multiply that by the amount of years provides the answer.
What does amaze me that if there are more boys than girls at age 18. No matter how many years pass by the result is the same. There will always be more boys than girls society.
As you mentioned, someone else would need to explain that you can not have 1890 boys marry 1000 girls an still have an issue where there are not enough boys.
anon1m0us, your math was awful (maybe there was a typo?). I quote your original example:
There are 105 boys born for 100 girls. AT year 18 there are 1,890 boys vs 1000 girls. Argument sake, 10% of the girls marry. That leaves 900 Girls versus 1,790 boys left. Year 19: There is now 1900 (another 1000 girls reach marriageable age after 18 years) girls and 3680 boys.
You multiplied the 105 boys by 18 (needlessly; there aren’t too many 1-17 year olds getting married!), and you got 1890. That equation, although meaningless, is correct. Somehow, though, when you gave the corresponding number of girls, 100 became 1000. In reality, multiplying 100 by 18 would yield 1800, so the discrepancy would be 1890 to 1800.
I think last year we thoroughly debunked the age gap as a primary cause for any shidduch crisis. AZ and mox tried valiantly to change the numbers and parameters repeatedly, but to no avail. If 10% of older girls are unmarried, maximum 1/5 of those can be attributed to the “age gap”. dig up those old posts if you wish
anon1m0us:
at this point i am convinced you are simply being facetious as your post would fail fourth grade math. Even posters who originally mentioned that they agreed with your idea, by now i’m sure they no longer do.
it’s actually quite suprising to me that only DY bothers to point out the inaccuracies (to put it mildly) in your boy/girl equation.
If the sitution was so simple as to have a single, straightforward cause and solution, it would have been implemented long ago. The truth is that it is a combination of numerous factors. The “age gap” may be one of the smaller factors involved.
focusing on superficial traits, money, problematic personalities, lack of experience and guidance, shadchanim, unmarriagables, ease of being good girl over boy etc are some of the other factors, and others have mentioned them previously without your rudeness. i can’t be bothered to explain each one in great depth, use your own imagination.
Nice to see that even the critics agree that age gap is a factor, even if there is disagreement as to the degree that it plays. As such certainly efforts to alleviate it are helpfu, and should be taken.
If other factors are in play as well, then of course they should be addressed as well, in any form or fashion that can bring about the necessary helpful change. Of course such action should be taken upon advisement with leaders of our comminties.
Anyone one with sound explanations of other causes as well as implementable methods of bringing about the necessary change would do well to contacct the NASI Project as they would be thrilled to help in any way they can and will work as hard as they can to bring it about.
That being said, I am told that to date NASI has not seen any other factor that both explains on the MACRO level why the girls are having such difficulty in conjunction with a action plan for allevating it.
As a example, the most realistic concept pointed out, is the thought that more boys go OTD than girls. Some prelim studies where done to see if this is true or not but there weren’t conclusive. (for the purpose of this discussion OTD means that unfortanelty they stey OTD and don’t marry or don’t marry frum. if they come back at 20 or 25 or 30and “marry in” then for the purpose of shidduchim it isn’t relevant)
In addition, so far there doesn’t seem to be a effective method for alleviating this (i mean aside from the superhuman efforts that many people expend in this arena urelated to the shidduch issue).
I said it “may” be a factor. But even if it is, the negative effects of both marrying off less mature boys and forcing girls to wait before dating will by far offset any minor benefit.
ofcourse: I agree that rigidity is a factor.
I think that many of the issues can be fixed. Each individual and each problem needs its own solution. I’m sorry to burst AZ’s bubble, but here is no one cure-all simplistic solution to solve the shidduch crisis.
For some singles mentoring would help, for other problems destigmatizing certain flaws. Some need counseling others need to focus on internal traits and compatibility rather than superficial prestige.
I think a multi-pronged approach can help many people, but there will always be, and always have been, some boys and girls who will never marry.
Narrowing the age gap will help few and harm many.
hello99,
You mention: “focusing on superficial traits, money, problematic personalities, lack of experience and guidance, shadchanim, unmarriagables, ease of being good girl over boy”.
These would explain why there are so many singles, but not why there are so many more girls than boys (a fact clearly observed by shadchanim). The fact that there are actually about 5% more males than females (a fact which I just read in this thread), if applicable to the frum world, would make one wonder then, why there are so many more frum girls looking for a shidduch than boys. This should force one to realize that the main issue is age gap. I can’t understand why you would think that it only “may” be a minor factor, when it is so clearly a major one. The facts of a 3-4 year age discrepancy with a 3-4% annual population increase leads to the inevitable conclusion that there’s a gender discrepency; I can’t begin to understand how this could be “debunked”.
I agree with you that there would be a tremendous drawback to having boys get married when they are not yet mature enough. As to your issue with making girls wait, that’s only indirect; the direct attempt at a solution is to convince boys (who are ready) to see “slightly older” girls. Although this would obviously slow down the rate of 18-20 year old girls getting married, I don’t think anyone is telling them that they must wait.
Hello 99: I guess we can disagree. Unfourtanately for you 70 R”Y signed to the statement that age gap is the primary cause of the shidduch crisis as well as to the concept of encouraging close in age shidduchim.
B”H the results of breaking the stigma that had prevented boys from previously dating close to their own age or older seems to most people to be a very positive development. Again you are free to disagree. In addition, having shadchanim focus on girls who didn’t just start dating is something many people think is a positive developement. Once again you are free to disagree on this point as well.
Finally, enabling boys to begin dating when they, their parents and their rebbeim/mentors think is the appropriate time for them. Not a day earlier and not a day later. As opposed to being held back due to a artificial system. Once again many people feel that would be a positive development.
To be clear no one is advocating that boys begin dating a day befroe they are ready, and no one is demanding that girls who want to date and are ready to do so should hold back.
Truth be told i kind’ve don’t see much downside if any or all these concepts where implemented. Hence i’m a big proponent of NASI’s activites.
For sure we can discuss various suggestions for bringing these ideas to fruition
Your point regarding mentoring/rigidty etc. are perhpas very true on the micro level but have limited effect and don’t explain the macro i.e. ther result of far more girls who have dated 10+ years and are still sinhgle to guys who have dated 10+ years and are still single.
DY: the simple answer is that there are roughly the sme number of older single boys as girls, but the girls go to professional shadchanim and the boys do not. Therefore, the shadchanim think that there are more single girls. Also, the OTD ratio is a factor.
re: age gap statistics- it was demonstrated on other threads that the Avi Chai study AZ quotes reports only 2% growth. Multiplied by a 3 year differential gives 6% more 22yr old boys than 19 yr old girls. However, when you factor in the 5% more girls born, the age gap only acccounts for 1% unmarried!!! Also note that MO who marry similar age and have less children have the same problem, another nail in the “age gap” theory.
DY: if everyone listens to MP/AZ and refuses to rett shiduchim to 18/19yr old girls, they won’t get married.
ofcourse: it will harm the entire family structure. Boys will be getting married even less mature than now, which is already creating a divorce crisis. Also, girls will lose a significant potion of their very narrow window to find a spouse and have children.
Addditionally, if they attend college/work for a number of years post-seminary, they will likely be looking for a very different type of boy. Some might consider this an advantage, but it is certainly a amjor shift that must be taken into account.
Hello99: I’ve already argued with you in the past. The growth rate in the chareidi community is around 4% per year, given the high birth rate in the community with an average of 6-7 children per family. It is also a known demographic fact that the chareidi population in Israel doubles every 16 years due to an annual 4-4.5% growth rate.
Are shadchanim refusing to redd shidduchim to 18/19 year olds? Are they being prohibited from doing so? or are they simpy being encouraged to spend time focusing on the girls who didn’t just start dating, a group that previously got less attention they needed.
If you think that’s a bad thing you are free to your opinion.
Re: your statment that their are rougly the same number of boys who have dated 10+ years and are still single to the number of girls who have dated 10+ years and are single, just the boys don’t go to proffesinal shadcahnim. You are free to think/believe what you want. However you must be privy to a secret group of boys who are hiding from civilation because no one seems to know they exist. Are there tens surely, a few hundred possibly,,, but no where near the numbers of older girls.
Heaven please tell us where they can be found, or at the very least please tell the girls who are so interested in getting married on which planet these hiding boys reside… becasue it surely isn’t in North America.
As for you insinusation that the divorce situation is somehow related to boys getting maried younger (something that that shidduch efforts haven’t really begun to accomplish) is a unfair attempt to discredit legitmate efforts towards easing the plight of the girls.
As for you insinusation that the divorce situation is somehow related to boys getting maried younger (something that that shidduch efforts haven’t really begun to accomplish) is a unfair attempt to discredit legitmate efforts towards easing the plight of the girls.
Eh?
AZ: You must agree that boys getting married younger would raise divorce rates somewhat, even if only incrementally. So we are only disagreeing about the extent.
PBA: Agree??? I have and would say nothing of the sort. How on earth could i make a claim about something of which i have zero knowledge, and to the best of my knowledge no studies have been made to show. (there has been some discussion that girls getting married right after seminary isn’t great for future shalom bayis, but if you’ve noticed i haven’t broached that issue because i am not aware of any concrete data that links divorce rates in our community to age of the spouse at the time of marriage. Certainly such a study would be helpful and PBA by all means go for it!
As for my hunch (for whatever it is or isn’t worth)… I think enabling boys to get married at the time when they – along with their parents and rebbeim – think they are ready to do so is probably a good thing. If this means boys getting married perhaps 6 months earliet then they otherwise would have, i (for whatever my opinion counts) don’t think it’s a reason for alarm.
If i was asked is it a good idea to pressure boys to get married aat 18/19 or at any age when they or the people who know them best think it’s not right for them, that is probably a bad idea….
is there something we disagree on?
The younger they marry the lower the divorce rate. Those marrying in their low 20s have a lower divorce rate than those marrying in their upper 20s and 30s. This is true across the frum spectrum. And in the Chasidic world where they marry as young as 18 and 19, they have a notably lower divorce rate than in the non-Chasidic world where they marry a bit later.
AZ:
Do we agree? I don’t know. You tell me.
You have dodged the point by telling me to do a study on something which is obvious. I will not do a study; the cost money; yet the idea is clear.
Then you say “I think enabling boys to get married at the time when they – along with their parents and rebbeim – think they are ready to do so is probably a good thing. Well, that is what is happening now. What you are doing is pressuring them to get married younger so as to solve a global crisis.
I may get in trouble for this, but . . .
Oomis, the person you described (the one who’s almost 40 and wants to learn) – I might know someone for him.
If the moderators think it appropriate, I give them permission for you to contact me.
A gut Shabbos to all.
May I ask what has anyone done to – in your words – pressure boys to get married younger. I am not familiar with any such action.
On a theoretical level would it be accomplished to enable boys to get married when they, their parents their rebbeim, think they should and not be held back by artificial obstables (for the record i am NOT reffering to any specific yeshiva policy). would THAT be bad for shalom bayis?
You seem to disagree and think that would cause a spike in the divorce rate – and you say that is obvious.
Please explain or prove that.
I would think that getting married when one is ready for marriage (as determined by themselves with input from those who know him best) is probably good for shalom bayis.
do you disagree?
(regardng your reluctance to do a study on the divorce situation; truth be told it shouldn’t be to expensive. Start by speaking to 30 proffsionals in the field and ask them to compile data, specifically the age at which the young couples coming to them got married. This should be a good start as to whether the issue needs to be pursued further or whether age at marriage isn’t a factor and if it is a factor is there a specific minum age etc…. Are you prepared to put in the time energy and effort required.)
AZ: WHO are placing “articifical obstacles”, as you refer to it, in the way of boys getting married earlier?
The Roshei HaYeshivos of Lakewood?
This excerpted from The Jewish Press’ website:
All In The Numbers: A Mathematical Explanation For The ‘Shidduch Crisis’
Ariel Halpert, Ph.D.
Posted Jan 23 2008
Data from the U.S. Census of 2000 provides supporting evidence that our community is growing in size. From the mid-1970’s to the early 1980’s, the number of children within the New York frum community born in a given year as compared with the number born in the previous year increased by just under 1% per year. So for example, if 10,000 children were born in 1975, then approximately 10,100 were born in 1976. Then, from the early to mid-1980s, this rate increased to nearly 1.5%, and by the mid-1980’s the rate was over 2%. These numbers may not sound like much, but when viewed within a demographic model, the results can be significant.
Using the above numbers along with a simple demographic model, and assuming that the age gap between husbands and their wives averages around 3 years (with a range of 1 to 5 years), we can estimate ratios of single men to single women who are 1 to 5 years younger than them.
For single women age 20, the modeled ratio is approximately 90%, which means that for every 100 single women at age 20, there are only about 90 single men who are 1 to 5 years older in the pool of potential marriage candidates. For single women age 25, the modeled ratio is only around 80%, and for single women age 30, the modeled ratio drops to around 60%.
(His Ph.D is in mathematics.)
the girls go to professional shadchanim and the boys do not
The boys don’t have to. The shadchanim try desperately to get as many boys’ names as they can.
DY: if everyone listens to MP/AZ and refuses to rett shiduchim to 18/19yr old girls, they won’t get married.
Sure they will, just a year or two later.
the typical, average guy does not go to shadchanim; however, practically every single girl does. Obviously, shadchanim will have much more girls than boys.
What if, there was some sort of universal, computerized way to have every single frum boy and girl, that “no single Jew will be left behind”?
lomed: I don’t know where you get your “known facts” from, but the Avi Chai study is the only scientific research I know of on the subject, and it is what AZ claims to be basing his numbers on.
AZ: “Are shadchanim refusing to redd shidduchim to 18/19 year olds?”
No, because they don’t listen to you?
Remember, I quoted previously an article in Binah magazine where numerous older single girls and prominent shadchanim claimed there is no lack of older boys.
Divorce statistics are high enough w/o your help. Simple logic dictates that they are connected: Shalom Bayis issues cause divorce, immaturity causes SB problems, younger is less mature.
“I think enabling boys to get married at the time when they – along with their parents and rebbeim – think they are ready to do so is probably a good thing”
Great, so now we agree. Continue allowing boys to begin shidduchim when they are ready instead of pressuring them to start early to “help” the girls.
If girls generally go to Shadchanim and boys generally do not, how did NASI divine that there are in fact more unmarried girls than boys?
binahyeseira,
The boys don’t need to go to shadchanim, they’re in such high demand that the shadchanim are running after them. The big shadchanim go to yeshivos in Eretz Yisroel and interview and take records of the boys.
Joseph – The younger they marry the lower the divorce rate. Those marrying in their low 20s have a lower divorce rate than those marrying in their upper 20s and 30s.
That’s not relevant to this point, which is about how early in their 20’s the boys get married; the reasoning not to push the boys into getting married younger than 22 (which I agree with) is that at 19-21, they’re not mature enough. Also, if this statistic is true, it’s also not clear which is the cause and which is the effect – maybe those with some relationship issues take longer to get married and are more likely to get divorced.
This is true across the frum spectrum. And in the Chasidic world where they marry as young as 18 and 19, they have a notably lower divorce rate than in the non-Chasidic world where they marry a bit later.
I don’t know where you get the idea that the divorce rate is different in these different communities, but even if so, you have failed to demonstrate that it’s because of age; perhaps those in communities who tend to marry younger also tend to endure a bad marriage without divorcing.
Pac: I wrote that i am specifically NOT reffering to any individual yeshiva.
Bina: at 23 pehraps. but if there are soooooooo mmany guys 30+ who are single isn’t a wonder that no one seems to know where to find them??????
binahyeseira-
It sounds like a great idea but I have some reservations.
Most important- I don’t think it’s fair to put anyone on the list without their explicit permission. Given the skewed advantage towards shidduchim that guys have I doubt many would want to sign up.
Also, before many people give their permission they’ll want to know who is going to have access the list and in what way it’s going to be used.
Which gets back to my original idea of having a board in charge of certifying shadchanim and a universal set of rules that all shadchanim must follow or face losing their certification and possibly facing consequences.
(By the way, I realize that in reality this is probably never going to happen.)
da’as: yes, i know the reason that the boys don’t go to shadchanim. i was just pointing out that it’s no proof one way or another when one says that the shadchanim have lists of girls, but not boys.
also, i was under the impression that it’s certain shadchanim, representing certain cities, such as LA who visit the Meir graduates. (i don’t know if they go to other yeshivas). since certain cities have their own professional shadchans, these shadchans are looking out for their girls.
of course: i am truly impressed with you. i can see that you really care about all the girls and truly want to help them. You’re not just after making as many shidduchim as you can, but truly want to help. May there be many more people out there who are like you.
AZ: because at 30, even if there are many male 30 year olds, as you have repeatedly stated they can date the 20 – 29 year old girls, and so they are still having people hound them and knock down their doors. Though, some by the age of 30 will go to 1 or 2 shadchanim. A girl by that age will be on the list of still much, much more shadchanim, so the shadchanim will still, whether the numbers are the same or not, have many, many more girls on their lists than boys.
Hello99: There is a mathematical formula to calculate the growth rate of a given population based on the TFR-total fertility rate of that population. A study of over 1000 records of families in Chareidi community here, (which was taken from the database of a leading shadchan here in America), showed an average of 6.8 siblings per family. A TFR of 6.9 translates into an annual growth of between 3.8 and 4.2%.
Additionally, there are many documented Israeli studies of the Chareidi population in Israel which all show an average of at least 4% annual growth rate of the Chareidi community there. I’ve seen a few studies myself, and I’m sure if you do a little research you’ll also find these same statistics.
(As an aside, the avi chai foundation study includes a wide spectrum of the Orthodox community in America. We are discussing here the Chareidi community only, which we can assume is not much different than the Chareidi community in Israel).
Instead of trying to ask questions about the MO community which you and I are not quiet familiar with; why don’t you bring proof of the age gap theory from the Chasidishe community here in America whom are not experiencing at all any shortage of boys (to the contrary, they experience a shortage of girls) which can obviuosly be attributed to the fact that they marry close in age.
AZ: it is more than obvious that your unnamed criticism of “artificial barriers” causing boys to marry later, is being leveled at the R”Y of Lakewood.
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