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saying that a lot of girls will not get married is bordering with kefirah r’l.
Which one of the 13 ikarim is it in violation of?
This point is not intended to detract from any of the other solutions.
Then I have no problem encouraging it for the older girls, most of whom I still think won’t consider it – although your point that there are some Chassidim and Litvaks that are similar is well taken; for those it’s a wonderful idea. It’s still not going to happen in large numbers, though (although it seems we disagree as to what “large numbers” are).
It doesn’t take much detective work to discover that the founder and director of NASI is a 36 year old Queens resident named Rabbi Moshe Pogrow whose home address is identical to the mailing address for the checks.
He wrote an article on Matzav about two years ago using the mashal of an “island” to explain his “age gap theory”.
A hint to the wise is sufficient.
In summary: I think it is clear that to embrace the NASI plan to “encourage” boys to date earlier and girls later is dependent on the following 6 conditions:
1) there are more older single girls than boys
2) this supposed discrepancy is attributable to boys marrying girls on average 3 years their junior
3) there are no other significant reasons preventing these older singles from marrying
4) the age differential is unnatural and not based on different rates of maturity or other justifiable considerations
5) there will be no or minimal negative effect in boys marrying younger
6) there will be no or minimal negative effect in girls marrying older
Unfortunately, none of these conditions have been proven true, and most if not all have been proven false.
APY: “anything else espoused by Nasi and claims to be endorsed by the signers of the letter is not endorsed by my R”Y and in fact, each signatory to the letter would have to be asked if they agree.:
Please indicate ANYTHING other than that which was explicity stated in the letter that anyone claims to have been endorsed by the 70 R”Y. As i have stated MANY times. The specific projects and ideas are not brought before 70 R”Y. There are a few R”Y who advise on the project and those are the ones whose advice is followed. It is simply not realistic to have a project under the oversight of 70 R”Y. The 70 R”Y signed on to the 3 points which are stated in the letter.
Have I ever made any claim otherwise??
As an aside the well recognized names on the letter are well aware of who the R”Y behind the project are.
Is there anyone who can make the same claim as the OP that 1/3 of the litvishe families they know have.a 25+ year old single daughter?
1) there are more older single girls than boys
True
2) this supposed discrepancy is attributable to boys marrying girls on average 3 years their junior
Also true
3) there are no other significant reasons preventing these older singles from marrying
That’s irrelevant; if age gap is an issue, should it not be addressed because there are other issues?
4) the age differential is unnatural and not based on different rates of maturity or other justifiable considerations
Even if it is natural, it’s still worth considering to avert the tragedy of so many girls who will otherwise not marry. This would be a shikul hada’as for the gedolei hador, not you or I. And thast’s if.
5) there will be no or minimal negative effect in boys marrying younger
See my response to #4, although I agree with you not to reduce the age of the boys significantly.
6) there will be no or minimal negative effect in girls marrying older
I will repeat what I said earlier (I’m not sure why you keep ignoring this point), nobody is telling the girls not to get married, just that the boys should give a fair chance to the older girls. You would have to rephrase #6: “There will be no or minimal effect in the older girls getting married instead of the younger ones.” I would argue that the negatives would be none or minimal (or that it might even be a positive).
Is there anyone who can make the same claim as the OP that 1/3 of the litvishe families they know have.a 25+ year old single daughter?
As pba pointed out, it would only be fair to consider those families that actually have 25 year old girls.
DY:
1) according to many older single girls and experienced shadchanim, NOT TRUE
2) based on the Avi Chai study which shows 2% growth, and no one has found any scientific study that contradicts this, NOT TRUE
3) very relevant. If one has commitment issues, etc; all the narrowing of the age gap in the world can’t help them. Also, as long as boys want a size 2, how will heavier girls get married to younger boys.
4) Being that girls mature faster than boys, narrowing the age gap will cause problems with #4 & 5. If the Gedolim would say otherwise, fine. But some anonymous R”Y is not the shikul hadaas of “The Gedolim”
5) definitely NOT TRUE.
6) possibly true. However, hashkafa will change the longer out of seminary and also lose childbearing years and narrow window of marriageability.
The bottom line is that NASI would be a bad idea if any one of these 6 conditions were not true; and the reality is that probably none of them are!!!
BTW, Moshe Pogrow’s wife is Tamar. Neither an “A” nor a “Z”
hello99 – what is your personal goal? AZ seems to want to help more people get married. What is your goal? Prevent bad marriages?
DY. Ok. Of the families that you know that have daughters above the age of 25, what percentage of those families have a single daughter. How many people can say 1/3?
Hell099: Pogrow is the name that was signed on the letter sent out to all mothers of single boys in BMG (i think the “title” was director). He doesn’t attempt to hide his involvement in the project, though he certainly doesn’t look for the limelight as a result of his involvement.
What relevance that has to the issues is beyond me. If you are insinuating impropriety by the fact that the address for donations is him home address, feel free to contact the NASI Project and they will give you a exact accounting of where and how money gets spent. They have nothing to hide.
As I’ve mentioned numerous times. It seems that the elephant in the room is the answer to the follwing question:
Are the numbers of girls who have dated 5/10 years and are still single, relatively equal to the numbers of boys who have dated 5/10 years.
Yes or No
You claim that based on conversations with older girls and shadchanim you are of the firm the belief that the numbers are relatively equal.
Fair enough. I certainly can’t debate the ppl with whom you’ve had conversations. I guess the people who have devoted their time and energy to this issue feel strongly differently (as do the 70 R”Y who signed the letter). I think one thing we agree on is that it would be ridiculous to sign a letter regarding the concept of close in age shidduchim if that is basically irrelevant to the shidduch scene.
just because people disagree with AZ doesn’t mean that they don’t care about the many singles unmarried. it just means that they don’t agree that this is where the emphasis should be placed. This is similar to a boat with several major holes and one small hole. One guy is getting people to spend tons of money and time fixing the one small hole. If anyone argues and says this may not be the most effective way of saving the boat, he argues, “Don’t you see there’s a hole – don’t you care about saving the boat?!”
It could be that by fixing the major holes, all one needs is a little tape to then fix the small hole.
Talk to the older singles – talk to the people who were older singles. Find out where the real holes are.
AZ-
As in the past- the more answers I get the more questions I have.
The website was fully active (including all links) as of last week, I find it very suspicious that once I mentioned it it disappeared.
Can you please explain why whatever was written on the 1,000 letters sent out is too private to post on the website for the benefit of everyone who didn’t receive the mailing?
The time and costs for maintaining a website that small is minimal compared to the costs of a mass mailing (and is dwarfed next to the $100,000+ that was given out)- can you explain how they had the time and money for the mailing, which only reached a small subset of the frum population, while they didn’t have the time to keep the website current (which could reach the entire frum population with Internet access)?
From what I saw I definitely can insinuate that someone is hiding behind a cloak on anonymity. I read frum magazines and frequent frum websites and I have never seen the name of a single human being associated with the organization (aside from the same name that came up four times when I did some investigation). How am I supposed to know what you send to mothers of boys in Lakewood when I never was one or will be one? Beside, the e-mail address “[email protected]” does nothing to identify a human.
To answer your question- I don’t know what my R”Y thinks about NASI or anything they stand for. I asked if he signed it and was told that he didn’t (he wasn’t there at the time but a talmid told me he was present when the NASI representative stopped by and the R”Y refused to sign).
What would be more productive than convincing bachurim to date girls closer in age, would be a directive to bachurim (and there mothers) to stop shaking down the parents of females for every dime to their name in order to allow their tzadikel to even consider dating their daughter.
Dr. Pepper: (Thanks for your humorous jokes on the funny shidduch stories thread!) I don’t understand why your R”Y didn’t want to sign on that letter; the letter is by no means an endorsment of the NASI organization, it is rather an endorsment of the age gap problem which has been in existence in Klal Yisroel for decades. Given that many older leading R”Y have signed on that letter, it is hard to understand why a particular R”Y would insist on excluding himself from the Klal without good reason.
I didn’t speak with him personally, I heard from someone else that he was approached and asked to sign but he refused. I honestly have no idea why he didn’t sign and it wouldn’t be fair to speculate.
I can speculate why a R”Y wouldnt sign. The next logical step in this progression is for bachurim to start dating at a younger age (if they dont, we will have a new scourge on our hands, girls 19-21 years old who nobody is dating because the R”Y directed bachurim to date girls closer in age – these girls will have little to do but go to college not just a degree mill in BP which gets them a piece of paper in 9 months or less – then, we will have another problem on our hands, nobody willing to date these “college girls”) Which ultimately means leaving the yeshiva at an earlier age.
The only real answer for those girls in late 20’s-early 30’s is to marry someone less frum. It is better than nothing.
They have to agree in Chinuch, Shabbos, Kashrus. There has to be compromise of some kind. But isn’t it better to have children?
I got sick when invited to a wedding recently of 31 yo bochur and 23 yo girl. I wasn’t geshmacked to be there.
adams: I would get sick to see an invitation to a wedding of a girl marrying a less frum boy. A 31 yo bochor marrying 23 yo girl is perfectly normal and you shouldn’t give an ayin hora to a marriage both choson and kallah are happy about, regardless of age.
Dr. Pepper:
The person (Pogrow)whose name was mentioned on this website last eve is the acknowledged director. He has written numerous times in the shidduch forum of the Yated under the NASI banner, he has spoken publicly numerous times on the topic including at the National Convention of Agudah Israel. Please don’t confuse a sincere lack on interest in limelight for attempts at hiding behind a cloak of anoynimity.
Once again you are free to your opinion but please be careful with insinustions/accusations. At the very least contact them (as pac did) and have a open conversation. You might actually be pleasantly suprised….
To adams: that is an interesting suggestion. A big factor in the crisis is that we have so many girls who want a serious learner, and while this is beautiful, there is no way they would, could, or should consider someone who isn’t shtark in his Yiddishkeit. Now if there was a large pool of working boys who are serious learners in their 5 – 9 hours, well, we might be on to something there.
BTW, why in the world should the less frum boys agree? And if they would be interested, why shouldn’t they be the ones to “compromise” and be willing to have a home with higher standards of kashrus, chinuch, and shmiras Shabbos?
And a P.S. Marriage has to be built on mutual respect. Not just “to have children.” Children will know if there’s anything less.
And BTW, while this is a couple’s great dream, they get married not “to have children” but to build a bayis neeman b’Yisrael.Encouraging people to get married without shared goals is not in klal Yisrael’s best interests.
adams:
That’s what I said in the beginning of the thread:
A third of Litvish families I know, have one or more single daughters 25 and up
Case in point: Due to various circumstances, I davened at the “late minyan in town” (9:00) on a recent shabbos. about 15-20 people were there for brachos, more for Yishtabach. A number of older (male) singles walked in between Shema & the end of laining. Your typical BY girl may have already rejected her zivug by being “too” frum (and yes, I don’t like that term here either), and not willing to be happy marrying a boy like this (who will not marry a nagger who tells him he has to go early to minyan).
In short, Adams & I agree that a significant part of the problem is the disconnect on frunkeit levels between the available boys and girls.
BTW, why in the world should the less frum boys agree?
In my experience, the boys don’t agree, and would rather remain unmarried (as I posted earlier in the thread).
AZ-
So let’s take this slowly,
Are you R’ Moshe Pogrow?
Were you the one who removed the website yesterday?
Both are “Yes” or “No” questions.
Dr. Pepper-
I helped NASI setup the site pro bono. On May 5th they asked me to remove it, since it was outdated. On June 29th, after procrastination on my part, it was taken down.
But we are told in this post earlier that many of these girls will NOT marry. Those are whom I refer to.
It may not work for ALL cases but surely one girl is worth it.
Speaking for myself, I have been on and off the derech many times in my life. TO be honest while I was at one time very highse about Yiddishkeit, and very medakdaik, i am not more tradtional. Shabbos is still Shabbos, but i have lost a lot of the passion. ( it comes out through my music though).
I dont’ think it’s that big a deal ( maybe Hashem feels differently but this is not for us to discuss)
In the final analysis, the best thing that ever happened to me was marrying and having children. I have ups and downs in the career, friends come and go, I have travelled the world. nothing compares to my wife and children.
Let the girls go and marry a less frum person. So the conversation wont be bout Halacha or the Parsha at the table.
If you are saying she should remain singel her whole life rather than marryuing a nice guy whoi is not so Fiebrent about Yiddiskeit it’s no contest, take the marriage thay you can.
hello99,
We’ll have to disagree about 1 & 2, although AZ says there are other studies, and as I pointed out and you ignored, the Avichai study showed 2% decades ago, with growth in the growth rate.
In an article on the subject, Yonason Rosenblum assumes 4% as well. It’s on the cross-currents site, here’s a link if it’s allowed through.
http://www.cross-currents.com/archives/2009/11/05/confronting-the-shidduch-crisis/
On point 3, you would sacrifice the many girls who don’t have commitment issues etc. for those who do. I’m not saying there aren’t other issues, but let’s at least level the numbers to give everyone a chance! You would have many girls have no chance even if there were no other issues, and exacerbate the problem much further since there are other issues. According to your logic, we should close all hospitals since some patients have no known remedy, despite the fact that many do!
On points 4 and 5, we seem to agree that it’s a bigger issue than either of us can decide (I’m not sure why you concede this on point 4 but not on point 5). 70 non-anonymous R”Y agree to the idea of closing the age gap. Since you’re against both boys marrying when younger and girls marrying when older, your definitely not on the same page as them.
On point 6, I’m glad you’re not in total disagreement, but I don’t understand why you refer to a smaller window of marriageability. If a girl gets married at 22, her window was already smaller, let her have a mazel tov now!
Dr. Pepper and hello99,
Why do you insist on outing AZ? Even if he’s who you say he is, he has every right to maintain his anonymity on this particular forum.
Es chatoai ani mazkir hayom – on an earlier thread, I hinted as to who I though he was. I now regret it, and certainly, I think this has gone too far. FTR, AZ does not know who I am, although depending on his identity, we might be acquainted.
adams,
Even if you’re right in theory, no specific girl knows for certain that if she doesn’t marry a particular boy (who’s less frum), she will never marry. So most will not sacrifice something which is so important.
It is more likely to happen, though, and sometimes does, as she reaches the end of her childbearing years.
Abe Cohen-
Thanks for answering.
DaasYochid-
If he wants to maintain his anonymity on this website that’s fine with me. My issue is the style of his posts which are meant to imply that they are not the same person. That, in my opinion, is dishonest.
Dr. Pepper,
I don’t see his posts as trying to imply his identity either way, I see it as intentional vagueness.
saying that a lot of girls will not get married is bordering with kefirah r’l.
Which one of the 13 ikarim is it in violation of?
Hu Borah Imanhig.
if you don’t see why we need to believe he can do everything, talk to your Rav.
saying that “No One Special” will not win the lotto tomorrow is bordering with kefirah r’l.
Which one of the 13 ikarim is it in violation of?
Hu Borah Imanhig.
if you don’t see why we need to believe he can do everything, talk to your Rav.
(I believe this is called “appeal to probability fallacy”?)
Of course, it is possible that “No One Special” will win the lotto, but highly unlikely. It won’t happen B’derech Teva, if that makes you happier.
Here is an idea for some empirical data. I wonder if we could get SawYouAtSinai to release their numbers. I.e., how many men v. women in each age bracket. Frumster as well, although I think the people on frumster might be more MO.
if you don’t see why we need to believe he can do everything, talk to your Rav.
Of course He can do anything, but we need to deal with the reality b’derech hateva (as GAW pointed out).
DaasYochid-
I guess that’s a difference of opinion.
In my opinion, being vague is dodging the question-
for example-
Q. Are you R’ Moshe Pogrow?
A. I’m not one of the R”Y who signed the letter.
Being dishonest is implying something other than the truth (regardless of whether it was stated explicitly or not).
For example-
Q. Are you R’ Moshe Pogrow?
A. Pogrow is the name that was signed on the letter sent out to all mothers of single boys in BMG (i think the “title” was director).
Regardless of your opinion, AZ should be the one answering this and not you.
Laker,
Would those numbers reflect actual proportions of singles or just the number of people of each gender putting themselves out there?
Tzippi:
“BTW, why in the world should the less frum boys agree? And if they would be interested, why shouldn’t they be the ones to “compromise” and be willing to have a home with higher standards of kashrus, chinuch, and shmiras Shabbos?”
Well stated. Worth a repeat.
sticky] [closed] ****RULES OF THE YWN COFFEE ROOM – PLEASE READ**** (1 post)
Started 2 years ago by Y.W. Editor
Personal Info
1 – Please don’t try to pry out personal information. Any questions or comments directed towards trying to “figure out” a blogger’s identity will not be tolerated.
http://www.theyeshivaworld.com/coffeeroom/topic/rules-of-the-ywn-coffee-room-please-read#post-32914
am yisrael chai-
Woops, thanks for pointing that out.
By the way- did you see (and accept) the apology I left for you?
Interesting that this discussion presents the problem as an issue of purely FFB concern. If the FFB young women (“girls”) have it this rough, who knows what the ba’alot (and maybe even the ba’alei) teshuva are going through. Or do they not matter?
I’d love to help solve the shidduch crisis. I’m 25, so I guess I’m getting to be an older single myself. I wouldn’t object to dates with the 23-27 crowd. I’m in law school, so I will be working and have no need for a huge payment from the kallah’s family. I do plan to take a year off to learn in E”Y before fininshing law school though, so I’d guess I’d be further adding to the problem, no?
Only thing is, I’m a ger and have never set foot in Lakewood, so as this conversation shows I’m not even in the running.
For those suggesting that the ladies look at less frum men, what kind of gap are people suggesting? Assuming that the young women are Litvish/Yeshivish and lekhatehila would want someone similar, are we talking kippa sruga (no black hat) at an out-of-town Young Israel types? Avi Weiss types? “Traditional” conservative? Regular conservative? Reform?
For those suggesting that the ladies look at less frum men, what kind of gap are people suggesting? Assuming that the young women are Litvish/Yeshivish and lekhatehila would want someone similar, are we talking kippa sruga (no black hat) at an out-of-town Young Israel types? Avi Weiss types? “Traditional” conservative? Regular conservative? Reform?
Yes to all, as long as:
1: The girl will not do any Issurim in the process (Taharas HaMishpacha is upheld).
2: It is agreed the children will be brought up frum.
Having one parent frum and one not is not as uncommon as you might think, although in most cases (I believe) it is due to one becoming BT and the other not, but respecting his/her wishes.
Almost four times as many Yeshivish/Modern Yeshivish girls as guys 20-30.
Ofcourse: Where do those numbers come from? SawYouAtSinai (as you implied) — in which case how did you obtain SYAS’s data? — or your own personal anecdotal data from who you deal with but nothing else?
Ofcourse,
(1) How much of that ratio can the age gap alone account for?
(2) Especially given your second sentence, does this imply that marriage-age single men and women put different weight on the goal of marriage, and that women are more likely to go to shadchanim, not just because guys are sought out and the market is in their favor, but because they actually feel more pressed to get married? In other words, how much of the crisis is a numbers gap based on the genders’ respective sense of urgency to get married?
Yes to all, as long as:
…
gavra: Realistically it can’t work. A Reform husband and a Litvish wife??? Even if in theory it were doable (the two conditions you mentioned), it would never be practicable. 1) You could never trust him to keep the conditions 2) How “frum” do you really think a Reform father’s children will be?
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