100% Solution to Shidduch Crisis–Goral

Cherrybim: Correct a certain percentage of girls never had a shot. WHICH girls is anyone’s guess. Certainly money looks yichus etc. give certain girls an advantage over others. At the end of the day brainwashers or not. If there are 100 boys and 120 girls. Can’t get married. Not other way to slice it. Even if all had money looks etc, there are still 20 who can’t get married.

YW-Moderator (and PY): If PY means to say that through a gorel boys will be forced to marry close in age, than there is what to talk about. However so long as the boys 30+ are getting dates with 26 yr olds why in the world would they enter a goral. PY premise it there are just as many older boys as girls and the younger girls aren’t interested in the older guys and therefore perhaps the older guys would enter a goral with same age girls. I believe he is not living in reality.

However the attempt at creative solutions is where the community needs to go. Any and all effective solution to close the age gap should be on the table athough some will probaly get shoved under the table quickly (polygamy, goral). But you never now where the breakthrough idea might come from.

positiveaynayim: You hit the nail on the head. Hopefully through proper davening the Ribbono Shel Oilam will guide the community to implement the necessary and appropriate steps to alleviate the crisis. To think that the solution will come without OUR changing what we do, is to rely on a neis which is forbidden.

AZ, I’d have felt a bit more reassured had you written that some of these out of the box suggestions SHOULD be swept under the table, not “will.”

Pashuteh Yid Wrote:

Mod42, Thanks for the hesber on the frum dating sites. As far as the math goes it is very tricky, and every time I think about it, I get dizzy. What we know is that biologically there are the same number of men and women in every age bracket until retirement years.

Thank you. I get dizzy too but I once thought about it for awhile and it seemed that AZ was right with the numbers claim and how closing the age gap can alleviate the problem. There was an ad in one of the frum newspapers with a graphical representation of the way it is and the way it should be. If you study the ad for awhile you might understand. Having a brain for learning gemara helps too 🙂 Of course, if you read all these threads here people have ways of refuting the whole age gap thing but I don’t want to get into that now as it will just get both of us more dizzy.

The tricky part is that AZ’s claim is that each younger bracket is slightly bigger than the next older bracket because frum families have lots of children and this causes population growth. So in some town, in the 20-25 bracket there may be 105 men and 105 women, while in the 25-30 bracket there may be 100 men and 100 women. Now because guys like younger girls, the 100 guys in the 25-30 bracket may swoop down and take 100 girls in the 20-25 bracket, leaving 5 of these younger girls with no men. These remaining girls then get older and have less and less chance of finding guys.

It is very confusing because sof kol sof there are the same numbers of each in each bracket at any time, so it basically boils down to a preference issue, not an actual physical shortage of people.

According to your numbers, when the 20-25 year olds become 25-30 year olds there will be 105 boys (assuming that they start dating at 25 for this example so none are married yet). But, let’s say there are 110 girls in the new class of 20-25 year olds and we add in the 5 from the previous class that didn’t get married so there are now 115 girls for 105 guys, 5 of those girls are older so will probably be part of the 10 who get left out so they will just get older. With each passing generation the numbers get further apart. So in a higher age bracket, let’s say 35-40, there will not be the same number of single boys as girls. There will be more single girls than boys because of what I explained earlier and AZ has been trying to explain. So even in your goral system some girls will be left out. But as I said in my previous post, at least some will get married that wouldn’t have otherwise.

Also, wouldn’t the guys from two brackets ahead (say 30-35) swoop down and take the 5 remaining 20-25 yr old girls and claim a major prize. (Like the old joke goes, my wife just turned 50, so I traded her in for two 25 yr olds.) So I literally get dizzy every time I try to evaluate the merits of AZ’s claim.

In theory this could happen but people are picky even at an older age so the five 25-30 year old girls will not want to marry the guys from the older bracket, they will only want to go out with guys in their age bracket. And even if they did go out with the older guys it would just exacerbate the problem because in the 30-35 bracket there are already fewer boys then girls and now 5 of them will be marrying girls from the younger bracket – exactly the problem that NASI is trying to solve by having people date within their bracket.

But my goral system would theoretically be immune from this since there must be the same numbers of singles. The only thing it could not do is to create guys in the 20-25 year old bracket because they may not be going out, and they would not enter. This may create an imbalance in the total number of available singles.

As I said above, no there will not be the same number even within the bracket becasue of what happened in the previous years. Your imbalance by guys not going out until they are older is exactly the problem NASI is trying to solve.

One thing to keep in mind is that by the non-Jews, it seems they are always having trouble getting women to attend singles events, so they always host ladies nite at bars and ballgames where they go for free to get them to show up. Non-jews also like younger women, so that is a bit of a kashya on AZ.

Non-Jews don’t have as many children as Jews so there is less of an imbalance between the older and younger generation. Also, non-Jews don’y necessarily date for marriage. When they finally do settle down and marry many times it is with someone closer in age (I am guessing here)

Another thing to find out would be how many of each gender show up at the usual frum single’s shabbatons and get-togethers. That ought to be representative of the number of available men, as well. I don’t think they are swamped with women only, but I could be wrong.

I think that these events are usually planned to have the same number of boys and girls. I guess it depends on the event but many will require reservations and they will only take X number of boys and S number of girls. I don’t know the mitzius with these events so, like you, I might be totally wrong.

As I recall, the proposition laid out here is in direct opposition to a Gemara in Kiddushin (41a) Mem Amud Alef.

bein_hasdorim: I would never try to pick up an entire cabbage roll. I would use the chopsticks to cut it into smaller pieces, as I do with egg foo yung.

Melech, that is the best point of all.

AZ – I think first you’ve got to make the point that there are more girls than boys available. Just because they are not married, does not mean that they want to get married.

Also, even if what you are saying is true; in the area of shidduchin, Hashem is the authority over that; He is m’shaddeich z’vugim and He made the reality what it is today. We think that hishtadlus is in order for shidduchin, but unlike parnosa, that’s not the case. The torah does not teach us that the Avos were mispallel for shidduchin.

So don’t double guess how and why Hashem wants things done.

Cherrybim I would follow the lead 70 R”Y in this area. Not saying you have to. HE did not make the reality that is today. HE allowed US to mess things up. We have no right to blame the Av Harachamim for problems that are self inflicted. And to say it’s HIS problem let HIM solve it while we sit back is frankly a cop out.

Cherrybim: With your line of thinking I Suppose you would close down Chai Lifeline, Bonei Oilam, Hatzalah and all the myriad of organizations in Klal Yisroel doing unbelievable work. After all. HE decides who should be sick. HE decides who should have children etc. etc. And those are areas that are NOT self inflicted.

“Kiddushin (41a) Mem Amud Alef”

That would be Mem Alef Amud Alef, naturally.

600Kbear, Reportedly, the Rev. Sun Myung Moon did not randomly match up his mass marriage participants. For one mass marriage involving 35,000 people, he personally made the matches himself over a two month period by scrutinizing the applications and photos of those involved.

His followers believe that he has the ability to correctly match destined mates, sort of like a super-shadchan.

Also, most of those mass-marriage figures were inflated. Many of the participants were already married, and were just renewing their vows.

ronrsr – “most of those …figures were inflated”

Hmm AZ, where did I hear that before?

AZ – “70 calling for it”

Oh, tell me again AZ, which of the so called 70 had their boys marry older girls and girls marry younger boys?

What, not even one; can’t be! What are they actually calling for?

yishtabach shemo: what you are saying is very very nice. HOWEVER the boys are getting by and large with the present system. So please explain how that will help more girls get married. (I actually have a answer how it helps slightly, but only slightly).

cherrybim: Do you mean to call the 70 R”Y liars or hypocrites. If you are then you are treading in dangerous waters. I will not sit here and defend people who absolutely don’t need me to defend them. But YES plenty of them have and imy”h will continue to do so.

Cherrybim: what figures are you accusing are inflated?? Have you done any research??

PY: The long term solution is in girls starting to date SLIGHTLY later and boys SLIGHTLY earlier. There is no need for them to be exact same age. Long term AVERAGE gap of one year is fine. For the short term w/o having implemented any MINOR structural changes yet the effective course of ages has been to have more close in age marriages which essentially accomplishes the same end.

Please note that not a single push has been made to the girls and their parents to push off dating – because they WON’T listen at this juncture. However if more boys marry girls 21-25 obviously fewer girls 19/20 will be getting married.

I am wracked with guilt over my recent marriage, now. I was 53, she was only 49. A gap of over four years! I didn’t realize at the time that by age-gapping, I was depriving some other unfortunate woman of a chance at a happy marriage.

Dear Rabbi AZ,

Besides for the dubious statistics and obvious data manipulation already discussed here ad nauseum:

1] The problem is/was/and always will be the monetary incentives offered by NASI. Simply put, HaKezona Yaaseh Es Achoseinu? How low can an organization stoop?

2] NASI bosts “760” shidduchim to date, that is nothing to be proud of. Quality is far more important than quantity.

3] Letters to the Editor and ads sent in by NASI to the media are misleading, but acceptable. Having a representative sitting online twisting like a pretzel to advance an agenda takes the entire NASI project to an entirely new level of deception.

Whatever minimal points NASI scored in the media was lost by your constant bending of the truth and pitbull tactics of ignoring ANY other attempt to suggest another possible cause.

Artchill: I apologize, there was one point I didn’t respond to-ignoring other attempts to suggest another possible causes.

a) when 70 R”Y sign on to something being the primary cause that should motivate people to focus on that issue. Especially since it is clearly identifiable and eminently solvable (see jonathon rosenblum article in this last weeks Yated).

b) there are certainly other factors at play that determine whic girls get married. There are certainly boys who don’t get married and if they did then obviously that many more girls would get married. However the other causes to the best of my knowledge fit into two basic categories.

1. Dervitaves of the numerical imbalance, e.g. out of town, tall girls, fair girls, poor girls, difficult family situations, etc. etc. in a boys market obviously these girls will have a tougher time. Solve the numbers and these girls get a much fairer shake. Without solving the numbers it’s going to awfully difficult to help these girls.

2. Specific issues related to individuals. There are certainly people that had plenty of quality dates (mostly boys but probably some girls fit this category as well) and are still not married. That INDIVIDUALS not yet being marreid is certainly not numbers related and each person is a yachid with their own situation. Even so, for the girls in this category as they get older (i will not speculate on a specific age) the same girl who had plenty of dates at 20 finds herself in a very difficult situation when she is closer to 30. THAT does have to do with numbers inequality.

The numbers issue is so overwhelming and far reaching and SOLVABLE that I have chosen to focus my energies on that.

artchill – You’re probably right about the Rabbi part. And you’re also right that any Shidduch that comes about because someone is offered a little money; that Shidduch has problems.

And even the “760” that NASI claims; anybody in the community verifying that? And at $2,000 per marriage, that’s about $1.5 million doled out to the couples. In addition: overhead, salaries, advertisements, transportation and air fare, meetings, hotels, restaurants, studies, so now you’ve got a “budget” of several million. Not a bad business and getting funds off the fear of loneliness.

Az – when it comes to yichus and money, age is not a factor. But i don’t see these roshei yeshiva instituting ant rules for their yeshivos nor their families.

There have been rabbonim who married older girls who came from yichus and were worthy but that is not the norm and the hamone om doesn’t go for it and never will.

pashute yid,

was way back in time…

great b”h, actually I had a baby boy recently 🙂