Sam, as I recall, whether or not bechirah affects actual events is a machlokes. The Chovos Halevovos holds not, the Ohr Hachaim holds it can. Even the OH”C holds that it can’t affect someone who doesn’t deserve it, but it speeds up the din.
Edit: The Ohr Hachaim clearly says it can, but it’s limitation might be my own pshat to limit the machlokes and to explain why Hashem clearly foils some attempts, or something I heard from my rebbeim. I don’t remember which.
http://hebrewbooks.org/pdfpager.aspx?req=38295&st=&pgnum=103&hilite=