health- the gemoro is in chulin 7B :”ein odom nokef etsbu-oi milmatoh elo im kein machrizim olov milmaloh” . Rashi mentions that the word means “to hit”. But it does not deal with punishment at all. It means that everything -even a small matter of hitting one’s finger’- is directed from the heavens. You see that from the pesukim from where the gemoro learns it. From tehillim (37): ” MeHashem mitsadei gever konnenu” And, if you look at anyone who discusses this, it is clear that we are talking about events ,not punishments.
As I have written many times, it is useless to debate this with you. History will prove one side or the other right. I venture to say that neither you nor I will be around to see the end of this.For now, I prefer to believe that HKBH is magnanimous and gave us the medinah after the awful catastrophe we suffered.