This is starting to go over my head, but I think you missed what I said. You claimed that 1% of the time you would get a quarter to land on ten heads in a row and I pointed out that it is only a tenth as likely. Everything you said after that was to try and confuse me.
Torah- there are several other blogs that discussed nasi and posters known to be experts (ie not anonymous to the forum) made their points. But most of my due diligence was by asking real people what they think, not online, so I have no links for that. But if you are interested reach out and ask someone who has the analytical ability to help you figure it out for yourself. Nasi offers the easy blameless answer, so it takes some willpower to allow yourself to disbelieve it.