Brony – here we believe in Godly selection. The question is whether doing something that can have deadly reprecussions but likely will not – is that more like jumping in front of a bus or more like speeding, overeating, not exercising, skiing, etc.? I think the answer turns on the statistical probability of death from that behavior, prior to the life expectancy of an otherwise similar person who doesn’t do that behavior. The answer in smoking’s case is difficult to find. Heart disease, which smoking increases the risk of, is also common among non-smokers. If a 675 lb smoker dies at age 30 from a heart attack, statistically this is a “smoking-related” disease. Also, a correlation between smoking and heart disease may exist because of the personality tendency of smokers, and circumstances that encourage smoking, may also cause heart disease, so the act of smoking may not do much to increase the already present risks.
The high percentage of death “from smoking” is heart disease. The other diseases, which likely have a stronger link to the act of smoking, are far less likely to cause death to an individual smoker. When an individual chooses to smoke, the question is how likely is it for him. The gov. and medical community are far more concerned with society than individuals, and lowering costs as a whole. Therefore IMHO the info you get about smoking is “doctored” (no pun intended) to promote no smoking, reinforcing the (generally) psychosomatic chest pains one can hear about from many bystanders. Don’t get me wrong – no one is lying, but it is
very easy to disguise truth within rhetoric and relative numbers.